{ "record_type": "ExistingKeenExperimentPaths", "study": "BRACKET-1", "status": "Native existing deterministic study reproduced with its 2025Q4 anchors. Separate from the 2019 teaching scenario; neither is a US-calibrated forecast.", "revision": "03597f2da93ae097409a0dc5c99ce79878d78fea", "source_artifact": { "local_path": "data/fgl/bracket1-variant-study.2026-09-19.json", "sha256": "a78bc7767aaf765bf519fd55d9d72b0f5e18ff045c100d461829b97fa24a3bc9" }, "source_code": [ { "local_path": "scripts/fgl/build-bracket1-variant-study.py", "sha256": "46b12fc773116a7a6d5e0367b6826afa24dac368a88744ffabaeff99588ed942" }, { "local_path": "runtime/keen_monetary_minsky.py", "sha256": "51b906dbf30d59399f5a2d6c216cca7981a9dc22d6d10c159d9300fd5ce5acc1" }, { "local_path": "runtime/flow_matrix.py", "sha256": "cb62031d1aa0a6d508496df3cc39fda009e12528d0367459c9766aaf11d98592" }, { "local_path": "runtime/posting_store.py", "sha256": "440285515bec4654e3230278dc2af17a18bea1a885c1cf2557164fc8cfd27950" }, { "local_path": "core/models.py", "sha256": "06bf12ef057e881cce9783db549f32ff163a25c2aea67f1c3de8d5099f11de25" }, { "local_path": "ir/schema.py", "sha256": "c3046aec3e624d19a55e0603732380839553f5afc588b037af1b79ed055a3d35" }, { "local_path": "scenarios/samples/sample-keen-monetary-minsky-baseline.json", "sha256": "33612d5f20ddc94b07649dbd38917cd4f6512cd367cc5cf69f4b13fbfc76a7f5" } ], "definition_correction": { "local_path": "data/fgl/debt0-axis-enumeration.2026-09-19.json", "sha256": "60af6003d3e900a069dd37915c42f75651f64af9d0b4cb8e75d36ba6a4e101d4" }, "source_packs": [ { "local_path": "data/observations/debt/bis-total-credit.2026-08-09.csv", "sha256": "e9c05963d1932b955df7bab344c5edee4f73f8c07cb7e28d2436c929fdbffcda", "manifest_path": "data/observations/debt/bis-total-credit.2026-08-09.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "39c2e4a03aedc82515a9204bb9d9362ec4638da1f59e84bf1285647fe6532f92", "acquisition_vintage": "2026-08-09", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T00:30:57Z", "quality_tier": "T1", "recorded_license": "BIS statistics terms (free use with attribution; source: BIS total credit statistics)", "recorded_license_status": "Unverified source-manifest metadata; not an independently established redistribution license.", "url": "https://data.bis.org/topics/TOTAL_CREDIT" }, { "local_path": "data/observations/fred/BAMLH0A0HYM2.2026-07-23.csv", "sha256": "7bab63caed6407268a60df7b04153740a3a114a66b053045f64d8d918869ba3f", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/BAMLH0A0HYM2.2026-07-23.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "04919ee0c13a4bc45c1b82d75ed4736dc61423357f3234922a654570bc9f3c0b", "acquisition_vintage": "2026-07-23", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T13:36:45Z", "quality_tier": "T0", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "recorded_license_status": "UNVERIFIED AND CONTRADICTORY: the manifest license field says public domain, but its own annotations identify copyrighted ICE data. The public-domain field is retained as source evidence and must not be treated as verified permission.", "publisher_rights_notice": { "attribution": "ICE Data Indices, LLC; ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "official_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2", "verified_on": "2026-09-20", "finding": "The publisher's FRED series notes identify ICE copyright and publication restrictions. A redistribution license for these source data has not been established by this export.", "export_scope": "This export includes assumed model parameters and native model outputs; it does not copy the raw ICE observation series. This scope statement is not a license determination." }, "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2" }, { "local_path": "data/observations/fred/BCNSDODNS.2026-07-25.csv", "sha256": "c6161b7c65943a2ab3b02a921a24113a3d44ccfa51074f8103002e45cbea7941", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/BCNSDODNS.2026-07-25.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "cef71ecda5072fe69bfdc42b7960f948d004e22142a6856e06916b9c84035084", "acquisition_vintage": "2026-07-25", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T02:59:25Z", "quality_tier": "T1", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "recorded_license_status": "Unverified source-manifest metadata; not an independently established redistribution license.", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BCNSDODNS" }, { "local_path": "data/observations/fred/FEDFUNDS.2026-08-05.csv", "sha256": "8c320a5e17fc8f0b41a42b537309f261371f7926563f829411af4a9358a4db44", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/FEDFUNDS.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "069f83212fd5a4e6637f3b12e82461d77902c7eb5d28359c4f1a3ef28e5dad8a", "acquisition_vintage": "2026-08-05", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T09:26:36Z", "quality_tier": "T1", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "recorded_license_status": "Unverified source-manifest metadata; not an independently established redistribution license.", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS" }, { "local_path": "data/observations/fred/GDP.2026-07-09.csv", "sha256": "c614058a24695e2cbbc465376a0933690a879cd7f4f98f916029677de4e98805", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/GDP.2026-07-09.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "c9808dc691e655c4f0a41b4d5f3687f1ecb6690d1ba9fbe0e34505939de60d98", "acquisition_vintage": "2026-07-09", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T00:00:00Z", "quality_tier": "T1", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "recorded_license_status": "Unverified source-manifest metadata; not an independently established redistribution license.", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP" }, { "local_path": "data/observations/fred/GDPDEF.2026-08-05.csv", "sha256": "76ac760e524c046e0fca1179f41d479c6ffdeb65813b26b8d7bd8d871dd492ae", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/GDPDEF.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "abd2bd65653dcbd4845e28d261857c660320cebf2383269a62f853b2dabb5b8a", "acquisition_vintage": "2026-08-05", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T09:26:35Z", "quality_tier": "T1", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "recorded_license_status": "Unverified source-manifest metadata; not an independently established redistribution license.", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF" }, { "local_path": "data/observations/fred/LABSHPUSA156NRUG.2026-07-08.csv", "sha256": "7a8a469fb38c0cd840ea26917be5e008c9d2b905b3ad0ff11a760e9c1f533bdf", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/LABSHPUSA156NRUG.2026-07-08.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "dbad1adfbed01a8c570b135a2b422bc7da9ed812009fbf364e47e5b253c3cd2a", "acquisition_vintage": "2026-07-08", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z", "quality_tier": "T3", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "recorded_license_status": "Unverified source-manifest metadata; not an independently established redistribution license.", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LABSHPUSA156NRUG" }, { "local_path": "data/observations/fred/UNRATE.2026-08-04.csv", "sha256": "0c99be07bd92f467672c4f0c5fd160b24fbb0b587ca1612867468a07f28a555f", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/UNRATE.2026-08-04.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "546bfda698055d9e7a81a4d5232337149c21a73f53fb6095b94b6ef0af57db6b", "acquisition_vintage": "2026-08-04", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T17:45:04Z", "quality_tier": "T1", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "recorded_license_status": "Unverified source-manifest metadata; not an independently established redistribution license.", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE" } ], "input_status": { "employment_rate": { "value": 0.9555, "unit": "labor-force fraction", "status": "Derived observed anchor: 1 minus 2025Q4 mean UNRATE/100; assuming this measures the model state is a mapping choice." }, "wage_share": { "value": 0.568303, "unit": "share of output", "status": "Assumed held constant initial mapping of PWT whole-economy labor share, observed annual2023; not a measured2025 corporate wage share. T3; no manifest digest, bytes pinned at use." }, "private_debt_ratio": { "unit": "debt stock / annual nominal output", "status": "D_A=.450043 and D_B=.722 are alternative observed-source constructions at2025Q4, rounded by existing study. Borrower, instrument and valuation crosswalks remain unestablished; not an identified confidence interval." }, "real_interest_rate": { "unit": "annual decimal rate", "status": "Assumed market-rate pass-throughs: .005958 and .035592, using policy rate or policy rate plus high-yield OAS minus GDP-deflator YoY inflation (Fisher approximation). Not observed effective borrowing rates." }, "output_index": { "value": 1.0, "unit": "initial real output=1", "status": "Authored normalization, not USD or GDP observation." }, "price_index": { "value": 1.0, "unit": "initial price=1", "status": "Authored normalization, not observed price level." }, "all_other_sample_parameters_and_runtime_defaults": { "status": "Authored structural assumptions, toggles or diagnostic defaults; not observations. Exact values appear in each path.effective_runtime_params." }, "rate_shock": { "status": "Authored +200bp annual real-rate pulse, active t>=0 and t<1; baseline0bp. No empirical likelihood attached." }, "time_and_integration": { "status": "Authored numerical choices: deterministic RK4, dt1/64year,192steps; no Monte Carlo, no fitted parameters." }, "events": { "value": [], "status": "No additional parameter-update events." } }, "units": { "time": "years since authored shock begins; no calendar dates assigned", "employment_rate": "fraction of labor force", "unemployment_rate": "fraction of labor force", "wage_share": "share of output", "private_debt_ratio": "debt stock / annual nominal output", "output_index": "real output, initial1", "price_index": "price index, initial1", "profit_share": "share of output", "banker_share": "r*d, share of output; interest-only model allocation, not household DSR", "investment_share": "gross investment flow / output", "inflation_rate": "instantaneous annual decimal rate", "growth_rate": "instantaneous annual real-output growth rate", "nominal_growth_rate": "instantaneous annual decimal rate", "private_credit": "annualized net debt flow / annual nominal output, raw fraction; multiply by 100 for % of annual nominal output, not % per year or change of the debt/output ratio", "credit_real": "annualized real-activity credit flow / annual nominal output, raw fraction; multiply by 100 for % of annual nominal output", "credit_financial": "annualized additional financial credit flow / annual nominal output, raw fraction; multiply by 100 for % of annual nominal output", "nominal_output": "output_index * price_index, normalized annual output", "capital_asset": "normalized nominal-output units", "debt_liability": "normalized nominal-output units", "firm_equity": "normalized nominal-output units" }, "parameter_units": { "capital_output_ratio": "capital stock / annual output, years", "depreciation_rate": "annual decimal rate", "productivity_growth": "annual decimal rate", "population_growth": "annual decimal rate", "real_interest_rate": "annual decimal rate; declared market-rate pass-through", "price_adjustment_time": "years", "kalecki_markup": "dimensionless multiplier", "phillips_floor": "annual decimal wage-growth rate", "phillips_pivot_employment": "fraction of labor force", "investment_pivot_profit_rate": "annual profit / capital ratio", "investment_pivot_share": "gross investment flow / output", "investment_floor": "gross investment flow / output", "pivot_slope": "shared numeric slope; wage-growth per employment fraction in Phillips function, investment share per profit-rate unit in investment function", "nonlinear": "0/1 model toggle", "price_enabled": "0/1 model toggle", "debt_enabled": "0/1 model toggle", "government_enabled": "0/1 model toggle", "financial_credit_fraction": "fraction of positive gross credit allocated to added financial credit", "rate_shock_size": "increment to annual real rate, decimal; .02 means200bp", "rate_shock_start": "years since model start", "rate_shock_duration": "years", "gov_response_slope": "government-deficit/output share per employment fraction", "gov_employment_target": "fraction of labor force", "phillips_linear_slope": "annual wage-growth rate per employment fraction", "invest_linear_slope": "investment share per annual profit-rate unit", "invest_linear_crossing": "annual profit / capital ratio", "crisis_debt_threshold": "debt stock / annual nominal output", "crisis_debt_slope": "diagnostic logit slope per debt-ratio unit", "crisis_employment_level": "fraction of labor force", "crisis_employment_slope": "diagnostic logit slope per employment fraction" }, "sampling": "Unrounded selected native metric rows at exact quarter boundaries0..2.75years plus the last recorded row2.984375. Runtime stores pre-step metrics; final state at3years is separate. Effects use all192rows, not the plotted samples.", "limits": [ "All four cells are exported; no midpoint, central case, average, weight or preferred endpoint.", "Debt definition correction supersedes old claims that the Fed series includes noncorporate businesses or that the BIS/Fed gap is identified by two known axes.", "A 200bp pulse means 2 percentage points, not a200percent increase. It changes the model interest rate on all modeled debt, not a maturity-specific refinancing schedule.", "Keen monetary-Minsky here differs from the standalone code-publications three-state Keen model; their parameters and path frequencies are not interchangeable.", "Production/income and firm balance-sheet identities are checked; there is no full deposit/portfolio or interbank network closure.", "Government and additional financial-credit channels are off. This experiment does not simulate taxes, transfers, bond maturities, bank runs or household distribution.", "State sanitation and exponential caps exist in the native solver. Exported sampled states remain in the economic interior; this is not a global numerical validation.", "The employment state is employment/labor-force, not employment/population. A debt ratio is a stock/flow ratio; its change is not the credit flow." ], "variants": [ { "id": "D_A/R_LOW", "debt_endpoint": "D_A", "rate_endpoint": "R_LOW", "status": "Conditional on assumed state; not a measurement, forecast or probability.", "paths": [ { "arm_bp": 0, "scenario": { "name": "bracket1_dr0.450043_r0.005958_0bp", "type": "keen_monetary_minsky_v1", "time": { "dt": 0.015625, "steps": 192 }, "initial_state": { "employment_rate": 0.9555, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0 }, "params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "investment_floor": 0.03, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "nonlinear": 1.0, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "population_growth": 0.01, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "real_interest_rate": 0.005958, "rate_shock_size": 0.0, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0 }, "events": [] }, "scenario_canonical_json_sha256": "9dfff326989da6af09ebcfc672abaadbc6009a0914e338a1ebcdfeac91bcc136", "effective_runtime_params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "population_growth": 0.01, "real_interest_rate": 0.005958, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "investment_floor": 0.03, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "nonlinear": 1.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "rate_shock_size": 0.0, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0, "gov_response_slope": 0.5, "gov_employment_target": 0.92, "phillips_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_crossing": 0.05, "crisis_debt_threshold": 2.5, "crisis_debt_slope": 2.0, "crisis_employment_level": 0.5, "crisis_employment_slope": 15.0 }, "samples": [ { "step": 0.0, "time": 0.0, "employment_rate": 0.9555, "unemployment_rate": 0.044499999999999984, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0, "profit_share": 0.429015643806, "banker_share": 0.002681356194, "investment_share": 0.4330756486526769, "inflation_rate": -0.0453576, "growth_rate": 0.0643585495508923, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.019000949550892307, "private_credit": 0.004060004846676901, "credit_real": 0.004060004846676901, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0, "capital_asset": 3.0, "debt_liability": 0.450043, "firm_equity": 2.549957 }, { "step": 16.0, "time": 0.25, "employment_rate": 0.9584023654180636, "unemployment_rate": 0.04159763458193644, "wage_share": 0.6676558192248073, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4488242768842053, "output_index": 1.0131182305854265, "price_index": 0.9982761584989371, "profit_share": 0.3296700857335166, "banker_share": 0.002674095041676095, "investment_share": 0.3597801304346313, "inflation_rate": 0.03412465537984588, "growth_rate": 0.0399267101448771, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.07405136552472298, "private_credit": 0.030110044701114724, "credit_real": 0.030110044701114724, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0113717753340599, "capital_asset": 3.03411532600218, "debt_liability": 0.4539282057254043, "firm_equity": 2.5801871202767757 }, { "step": 32.0, "time": 0.5, "employment_rate": 0.9558043047134724, "unemployment_rate": 0.04419569528652756, "wage_share": 0.7687887892291803, "private_debt_ratio": 0.44949212679359424, "output_index": 1.0205262506248298, "price_index": 1.0173519828332174, "profit_share": 0.22853313667938352, "banker_share": 0.0026780740914362344, "investment_share": 0.29883803346810245, "inflation_rate": 0.11503103138334425, "growth_rate": 0.01961267782270082, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.13464370920604507, "private_credit": 0.07030489678871893, "credit_real": 0.07030489678871893, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0382344046065195, "capital_asset": 3.1147032138195585, "debt_liability": 0.4666781906368655, "firm_equity": 2.648025023182693 }, { "step": 48.0, "time": 0.75, "employment_rate": 0.9493729232131882, "unemployment_rate": 0.050627076786811775, "wage_share": 0.8386172408946495, "private_debt_ratio": 0.45378857470386336, "output_index": 1.0238468164706782, "price_index": 1.0551026452847807, "profit_share": 0.1586790867772649, "banker_share": 0.002703672328085618, "investment_share": 0.26345510748621254, "inflation_rate": 0.1708937927157197, "growth_rate": 0.007818369162070848, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17871216187779054, "private_credit": 0.10477602070894765, "credit_real": 0.10477602070894765, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.080263484424614, "capital_asset": 3.240790453273842, "debt_liability": 0.4902112269016747, "firm_equity": 2.7505792263721673 }, { "step": 64.0, "time": 1.0, "employment_rate": 0.9411335613518012, "unemployment_rate": 0.05886643864819885, "wage_share": 0.8671380818924584, "private_debt_ratio": 0.46062047684735763, "output_index": 1.0251616437561566, "price_index": 1.1050024064374862, "profit_share": 0.130117541306485, "banker_share": 0.002744376801056557, "investment_share": 0.25036597954982065, "inflation_rate": 0.19371046551396676, "growth_rate": 0.003455326516606877, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.19716579203057363, "private_credit": 0.12024843824333564, "credit_real": 0.12024843824333564, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1328060833379618, "capital_asset": 3.3984182500138855, "debt_liability": 0.5217936782827195, "firm_equity": 2.876624571731166 }, { "step": 80.0, "time": 1.25, "employment_rate": 0.9325451326160175, "unemployment_rate": 0.06745486738398254, "wage_share": 0.864922063506755, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4678534620973923, "output_index": 1.0260154306492575, "price_index": 1.1600233741738375, "profit_share": 0.1322904655660687, "banker_share": 0.0027874709271762635, "investment_share": 0.2513354565445105, "inflation_rate": 0.19193765080540404, "growth_rate": 0.003778485514836838, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.19571613632024087, "private_credit": 0.11904499097844182, "credit_real": 0.11904499097844182, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1902018818161746, "capital_asset": 3.5706056454485235, "debt_liability": 0.5568400710025286, "firm_equity": 3.013765574445995 }, { "step": 96.0, "time": 1.5, "employment_rate": 0.9244356504316192, "unemployment_rate": 0.07556434956838076, "wage_share": 0.8460497746109777, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4740545767652317, "output_index": 1.0273150795999202, "price_index": 1.2149674509864938, "profit_share": 0.151125808220655, "banker_share": 0.0028244171683672503, "investment_share": 0.2599198226248758, "inflation_rate": 0.17683981968878226, "growth_rate": 0.006639940874958589, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.18347976056374085, "private_credit": 0.10879401440422079, "credit_real": 0.10879401440422079, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.248154383621502, "capital_asset": 3.7444631508645063, "debt_liability": 0.5916932980653599, "firm_equity": 3.1527698527991466 }, { "step": 112.0, "time": 1.75, "employment_rate": 0.9172108412276742, "unemployment_rate": 0.08278915877232584, "wage_share": 0.8203584693622572, "private_debt_ratio": 0.47870445709415355, "output_index": 1.0295302262184647, "price_index": 1.2667006629597444, "profit_share": 0.17678940948237584, "banker_share": 0.0028521211553669667, "investment_share": 0.2721545866383674, "inflation_rate": 0.15628677548980585, "growth_rate": 0.010718195546122466, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.16700497103592832, "private_credit": 0.09536517715599155, "credit_real": 0.09536517715599155, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.304106620088025, "capital_asset": 3.9123198602640747, "debt_liability": 0.6242816515621296, "firm_equity": 3.2880382087019453 }, { "step": 128.0, "time": 2.0, "employment_rate": 0.9110339788102272, "unemployment_rate": 0.08896602118977281, "wage_share": 0.793247609195182, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4818223981559037, "output_index": 1.0328742307248362, "price_index": 1.3136009261989265, "profit_share": 0.20388169295660513, "banker_share": 0.0028706978482128742, "investment_share": 0.28577756902262796, "inflation_rate": 0.13459808735614565, "growth_rate": 0.01525918967420932, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.14985727703035495, "private_credit": 0.08189587606602283, "credit_real": 0.08189587606602283, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3567845461271486, "capital_asset": 4.070353638381446, "debt_liability": 0.6537291837958521, "firm_equity": 3.416624454585594 }, { "step": 144.0, "time": 2.25, "employment_rate": 0.9059375013806122, "unemployment_rate": 0.09406249861938776, "wage_share": 0.7672945486874421, "private_debt_ratio": 0.48364274247698363, "output_index": 1.037418646420533, "price_index": 1.3549913276669918, "profit_share": 0.22982390785288007, "banker_share": 0.0028815434596778686, "investment_share": 0.29953997530689114, "inflation_rate": 0.11383563894995374, "growth_rate": 0.019846658435630382, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.13368229738558413, "private_credit": 0.06971606745401107, "credit_real": 0.06971606745401107, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4056932690598516, "capital_asset": 4.217079807179555, "debt_liability": 0.6798533477295431, "firm_equity": 3.5372264594500122 }, { "step": 160.0, "time": 2.5, "employment_rate": 0.9018863722467173, "unemployment_rate": 0.0981136277532827, "wage_share": 0.7435647383021915, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4844444582911959, "output_index": 1.043159173224301, "price_index": 1.3907452570635779, "profit_share": 0.25354894161530955, "banker_share": 0.002886320082498945, "investment_share": 0.31277345702764625, "inflation_rate": 0.0948517906417532, "growth_rate": 0.02425781900921542, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.11910960965096862, "private_credit": 0.0592245154123367, "credit_real": 0.0592245154123367, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.45076867252406, "capital_asset": 4.352306017572181, "debt_liability": 0.7028168436667557, "firm_equity": 3.649489173905425 }, { "step": 176.0, "time": 2.75, "employment_rate": 0.8988129367102048, "unemployment_rate": 0.10118706328979521, "wage_share": 0.7223797253858106, "private_debt_ratio": 0.48448145892038164, "output_index": 1.0500525072677542, "price_index": 1.4210432885355684, "profit_share": 0.27473373408194174, "banker_share": 0.0028865405322476335, "investment_share": 0.3251381737881006, "inflation_rate": 0.07790378030864853, "growth_rate": 0.0283793912627002, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.10628317157134873, "private_credit": 0.05040443970615888, "credit_real": 0.05040443970615888, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4921700680627883, "capital_asset": 4.476510204188365, "debt_liability": 0.7229287315323848, "firm_equity": 3.75358147265598 }, { "step": 191.0, "time": 2.984375, "employment_rate": 0.8967471718031003, "unemployment_rate": 0.10325282819689974, "wage_share": 0.7048141279482204, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4840074648703976, "output_index": 1.0575069445819083, "price_index": 1.4447978387509395, "profit_share": 0.29230215557608175, "banker_share": 0.0028837164756978285, "investment_share": 0.3358012536306184, "inflation_rate": 0.06385130235857639, "growth_rate": 0.03193375121020614, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.09578505356878253, "private_credit": 0.04349909805453667, "credit_real": 0.04349909805453667, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.5278837479960505, "capital_asset": 4.583651243988152, "debt_liability": 0.7395071394842498, "firm_equity": 3.8441441045039024 } ], "final_state_at_year3": { "employment_rate": 0.8966357406677254, "wage_share": 0.7037190837297034, "private_debt_ratio": 0.48396197742968505, "output_index": 1.0580366034708553, "price_index": 1.446230087003375 }, "native_full_metrics_canonical_json_sha256": "70880f43d4110047830b34893ef3b9a982323323fdc0f28d0f1904e7ac61e93d", "native_record_count": 192, "sfc_consistent": true }, { "arm_bp": 200, "scenario": { "name": "bracket1_dr0.450043_r0.005958_200bp", "type": "keen_monetary_minsky_v1", "time": { "dt": 0.015625, "steps": 192 }, "initial_state": { "employment_rate": 0.9555, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0 }, "params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "investment_floor": 0.03, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "nonlinear": 1.0, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "population_growth": 0.01, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "real_interest_rate": 0.005958, "rate_shock_size": 0.02, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0 }, "events": [] }, "scenario_canonical_json_sha256": "fb7d981d3f0121acd01daa7200aa26d3de8db1ff6c19a261bd95277e9f0805f7", "effective_runtime_params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "population_growth": 0.01, "real_interest_rate": 0.005958, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "investment_floor": 0.03, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "nonlinear": 1.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "rate_shock_size": 0.02, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0, "gov_response_slope": 0.5, "gov_employment_target": 0.92, "phillips_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_crossing": 0.05, "crisis_debt_threshold": 2.5, "crisis_debt_slope": 2.0, "crisis_employment_level": 0.5, "crisis_employment_slope": 15.0 }, "samples": [ { "step": 0.0, "time": 0.0, "employment_rate": 0.9555, "unemployment_rate": 0.044499999999999984, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0, "profit_share": 0.420014783806, "banker_share": 0.011682216194000002, "investment_share": 0.42581253494106486, "inflation_rate": -0.0453576, "growth_rate": 0.06193751164702162, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.01657991164702162, "private_credit": 0.005797751135064866, "credit_real": 0.005797751135064866, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0, "capital_asset": 3.0, "debt_liability": 0.450043, "firm_equity": 2.549957 }, { "step": 16.0, "time": 0.25, "employment_rate": 0.9579027561874542, "unemployment_rate": 0.04209724381254576, "wage_share": 0.6661352594602691, "private_debt_ratio": 0.44965909314998964, "output_index": 1.012590098312425, "price_index": 0.9981768775565951, "profit_share": 0.32219248979974346, "banker_share": 0.011672250739987433, "investment_share": 0.3548358268615772, "inflation_rate": 0.03290820756821533, "growth_rate": 0.03827860895385907, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.0711868165220744, "private_credit": 0.032643337061833755, "credit_real": 0.032643337061833755, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.010744022578222, "capital_asset": 3.0322320677346664, "debt_liability": 0.454490240599296, "firm_equity": 2.5777418271353705 }, { "step": 32.0, "time": 0.5, "employment_rate": 0.9550374098805542, "unemployment_rate": 0.04496259011944581, "wage_share": 0.7632120462800112, "private_debt_ratio": 0.45127836359062806, "output_index": 1.0197074257831744, "price_index": 1.016552992823447, "profit_share": 0.22507366995790332, "banker_share": 0.011714283762085524, "investment_share": 0.2969657226409841, "inflation_rate": 0.11056963702400902, "growth_rate": 0.01898857421366136, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.12955821123767036, "private_credit": 0.07189205268308077, "credit_real": 0.07189205268308077, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0365866354841788, "capital_asset": 3.1097599064525365, "debt_liability": 0.4677891205812151, "firm_equity": 2.6419707858713215 }, { "step": 48.0, "time": 0.75, "employment_rate": 0.9485521437707628, "unemployment_rate": 0.0514478562292372, "wage_share": 0.829180458356679, "private_debt_ratio": 0.45638218104179407, "output_index": 1.0229616506958779, "price_index": 1.0526641422488254, "profit_share": 0.15897277298783813, "banker_share": 0.01184676865548289, "investment_share": 0.2635936587774178, "inflation_rate": 0.16334436668534325, "growth_rate": 0.007864552925805929, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17120891961114917, "private_credit": 0.10462088578957968, "credit_real": 0.10462088578957968, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0768350485832188, "capital_asset": 3.2305051457496563, "debt_liability": 0.49144832809465566, "firm_equity": 2.7390568176550008 }, { "step": 64.0, "time": 1.0, "employment_rate": 0.9403659304497453, "unemployment_rate": 0.05963406955025474, "wage_share": 0.8559153700214682, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4638430119026493, "output_index": 1.0243254757671856, "price_index": 1.1001329126535366, "profit_share": 0.1413210533136158, "banker_share": 0.0027635766649159845, "investment_share": 0.2554104731363648, "inflation_rate": 0.18473229601717467, "growth_rate": 0.005136824378788263, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.18986912039596293, "private_credit": 0.11408941982274898, "credit_real": 0.11408941982274898, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1268941691609735, "capital_asset": 3.3806825074829208, "debt_liability": 0.5227019855191596, "firm_equity": 2.857980521963761 }, { "step": 80.0, "time": 1.25, "employment_rate": 0.9321745851817438, "unemployment_rate": 0.06782541481825621, "wage_share": 0.8540850374401414, "private_debt_ratio": 0.47024938924652965, "output_index": 1.0256077427293333, "price_index": 1.1523293337856375, "profit_share": 0.14311321669872776, "banker_share": 0.0028017458611308233, "investment_share": 0.25622805814131444, "inflation_rate": 0.18326802995211322, "growth_rate": 0.005409352713771479, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.18867738266588469, "private_credit": 0.11311484144258668, "credit_real": 0.11311484144258668, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1818378869046842, "capital_asset": 3.5455136607140525, "debt_liability": 0.5557585445053369, "firm_equity": 2.9897551162087157 }, { "step": 96.0, "time": 1.5, "employment_rate": 0.9244250360970642, "unemployment_rate": 0.07557496390293583, "wage_share": 0.8367930013118127, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4757632043042809, "output_index": 1.0273032840077203, "price_index": 1.2044748983404665, "profit_share": 0.16037240151694243, "banker_share": 0.0028345971712449053, "investment_share": 0.26425508707614087, "inflation_rate": 0.16943440104945018, "growth_rate": 0.008085029025380289, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17751943007483045, "private_credit": 0.10388268555919844, "credit_real": 0.10388268555919844, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2373610185700263, "capital_asset": 3.712083055710079, "debt_liability": 0.5886908430760845, "firm_equity": 3.1233922126339944 }, { "step": 112.0, "time": 1.75, "employment_rate": 0.9175065590291667, "unemployment_rate": 0.08249344097083333, "wage_share": 0.8128992808782904, "private_debt_ratio": 0.47990391082324524, "output_index": 1.029862156895015, "price_index": 1.2536650825773896, "profit_share": 0.18424145162102468, "banker_share": 0.002859267500684895, "investment_share": 0.2758277138977555, "inflation_rate": 0.15031942470263238, "growth_rate": 0.01194257129925183, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1622619960018842, "private_credit": 0.09158626227673083, "credit_real": 0.09158626227673083, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2911022259671177, "capital_asset": 3.873306677901353, "debt_liability": 0.6196050075142171, "firm_equity": 3.253701670387136 }, { "step": 128.0, "time": 2.0, "employment_rate": 0.9115819220871981, "unemployment_rate": 0.08841807791280187, "wage_share": 0.7874152396891466, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4826672440868471, "output_index": 1.0334954550741438, "price_index": 1.2983612865229177, "profit_share": 0.20970902887058396, "banker_share": 0.002875731440269435, "investment_share": 0.28880647757230626, "inflation_rate": 0.12993219175131732, "growth_rate": 0.016268825857435415, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.14620101760875273, "private_credit": 0.0790974487017223, "credit_real": 0.0790974487017223, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3418504886656535, "capital_asset": 4.02555146599696, "debt_liability": 0.64766727734084, "firm_equity": 3.3778841886561204 }, { "step": 144.0, "time": 2.25, "employment_rate": 0.9066887552922018, "unemployment_rate": 0.09331124470779817, "wage_share": 0.7628189143271761, "private_debt_ratio": 0.48424943472993315, "output_index": 1.0382789318319354, "price_index": 1.3378978212822104, "profit_share": 0.23429592754070297, "banker_share": 0.0028851581321209414, "investment_share": 0.30198613587161593, "inflation_rate": 0.11025513146174093, "growth_rate": 0.02066204529053864, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.13091717675227957, "private_credit": 0.06769020833091297, "credit_real": 0.06769020833091297, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.389111120781167, "capital_asset": 4.167333362343501, "debt_liability": 0.672676275015344, "firm_equity": 3.4946570873281573 }, { "step": 160.0, "time": 2.5, "employment_rate": 0.9027986021498534, "unemployment_rate": 0.09720139785014659, "wage_share": 0.7401867834468844, "private_debt_ratio": 0.48489524652646376, "output_index": 1.044214296154229, "price_index": 1.3721281544951283, "profit_share": 0.2569242106743109, "banker_share": 0.002889005878804671, "investment_share": 0.3147082003187923, "inflation_rate": 0.09214942675750748, "growth_rate": 0.024902733439597438, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.11705216019710492, "private_credit": 0.05778398964448139, "credit_real": 0.05778398964448139, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4327958350795313, "capital_asset": 4.298387505238594, "debt_liability": 0.6947558896729799, "firm_equity": 3.603631615565614 }, { "step": 176.0, "time": 2.75, "employment_rate": 0.8998500912199894, "unemployment_rate": 0.10014990878001062, "wage_share": 0.7198834063194817, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4848325387906685, "output_index": 1.0512641795178335, "price_index": 1.4012017534273506, "profit_share": 0.27722796141440353, "banker_share": 0.002888632266114803, "investment_share": 0.3266290818087132, "inflation_rate": 0.07590672505558538, "growth_rate": 0.028876360602904397, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.10478308565848977, "private_credit": 0.04940112039430966, "credit_real": 0.04940112039430966, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4730332116557534, "capital_asset": 4.41909963496726, "debt_liability": 0.714174431730031, "firm_equity": 3.704925203237229 }, { "step": 191.0, "time": 2.984375, "employment_rate": 0.8978735315472751, "unemployment_rate": 0.10212646845272488, "wage_share": 0.7029889375597075, "private_debt_ratio": 0.48429951405972105, "output_index": 1.0588352267209733, "price_index": 1.4240505074935308, "profit_share": 0.2941256059355247, "banker_share": 0.002885456504767818, "investment_share": 0.33692982275994376, "inflation_rate": 0.062391150047765964, "growth_rate": 0.03230994091998125, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.09470109096774722, "private_credit": 0.04280421682441904, "credit_real": 0.04280421682441904, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.5078348419640297, "capital_asset": 4.523504525892089, "debt_liability": 0.7302436812454959, "firm_equity": 3.793260844646593 } ], "final_state_at_year3": { "employment_rate": 0.8977671847779269, "wage_share": 0.7019341564857648, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4842509831878072, "output_index": 1.0593717156341111, "price_index": 1.4254300267116229 }, "native_full_metrics_canonical_json_sha256": "61e07cc9fe7e12d54b77c828d8d72d4552f997f13681a57b04081abd626871dd", "native_record_count": 192, "sfc_consistent": true } ], "committed_effects_200bp": { "peak_additional_output_shortfall": { "value": 0.086511, "unit": "percent of paired baseline output", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "cumulative_output_shortfall_clipped": { "value": 0.028599, "unit": "percent of baseline output over the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "cumulative_output_difference_signed": { "value": -0.009618, "unit": "percent of baseline output over the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "note": "published beside the clipped measure because the clipped one alone hides offsets" }, "peak_additional_employment_shortfall": { "value": 0.082213, "unit": "percentage points of the labour-force fraction", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "persistence_output_gap_at_horizon": { "value": 0.125605, "unit": "signed percent of baseline output at the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "persistence_employment_gap_at_horizon": { "value": 0.112636, "unit": "signed percentage points at the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "absolute_baseline_output_at_horizon": { "value": 1.057507, "unit": "index", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "note": "carried beside the gaps so a collapsing baseline cannot make relative resilience look healthy" }, "recovery": { "recovered_within_horizon": true, "first_sustained_return_year": 1.0, "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "tolerance_status": "PROPOSED IN SR-1 AND NOT IN FORCE - section 50 adopts no bound, so this is reported against a stated candidate tolerance (1.0% output, 0.5pp employment, sustained 2 quarters) rather than judged", "censoring_note": "'not recovered within the horizon' is CENSORED, not infinite, and must never be averaged or ranked as a number" } }, "effects_match_committed_artifact_exactly": true }, { "id": "D_A/R_HIGH", "debt_endpoint": "D_A", "rate_endpoint": "R_HIGH", "status": "Conditional on assumed state; not a measurement, forecast or probability.", "paths": [ { "arm_bp": 0, "scenario": { "name": "bracket1_dr0.450043_r0.035592_0bp", "type": "keen_monetary_minsky_v1", "time": { "dt": 0.015625, "steps": 192 }, "initial_state": { "employment_rate": 0.9555, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0 }, "params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "investment_floor": 0.03, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "nonlinear": 1.0, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "population_growth": 0.01, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "real_interest_rate": 0.035592, "rate_shock_size": 0.0, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0 }, "events": [] }, "scenario_canonical_json_sha256": "c5426252323af49ea8e1ae771044bd24d8ac0082fbda5b702e0db64ede898289", "effective_runtime_params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "population_growth": 0.01, "real_interest_rate": 0.035592, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "investment_floor": 0.03, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "nonlinear": 1.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "rate_shock_size": 0.0, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0, "gov_response_slope": 0.5, "gov_employment_target": 0.92, "phillips_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_crossing": 0.05, "crisis_debt_threshold": 2.5, "crisis_debt_slope": 2.0, "crisis_employment_level": 0.5, "crisis_employment_slope": 15.0 }, "samples": [ { "step": 0.0, "time": 0.0, "employment_rate": 0.9555, "unemployment_rate": 0.044499999999999984, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0, "profit_share": 0.415679069544, "banker_share": 0.016017930456, "investment_share": 0.4223607447573613, "inflation_rate": -0.0453576, "growth_rate": 0.06078691491912043, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.015429314919120432, "private_credit": 0.006681675213361271, "credit_real": 0.006681675213361271, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0, "capital_asset": 3.0, "debt_liability": 0.450043, "firm_equity": 2.549957 }, { "step": 16.0, "time": 0.25, "employment_rate": 0.9576646197587556, "unemployment_rate": 0.04233538024124439, "wage_share": 0.6654219830825475, "private_debt_ratio": 0.45007017507896907, "output_index": 1.01233836650751, "price_index": 0.9981301695932608, "profit_share": 0.3185591192460418, "banker_share": 0.016018897671410667, "investment_share": 0.35246021492381985, "inflation_rate": 0.032337586466038015, "growth_rate": 0.03748673830793994, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.06982432477397796, "private_credit": 0.03390109567777805, "credit_real": 0.03390109567777805, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0104454654479056, "capital_asset": 3.0313363963437165, "debt_liability": 0.45477136754188924, "firm_equity": 2.576565028801827 }, { "step": 32.0, "time": 0.5, "employment_rate": 0.9546685119734546, "unemployment_rate": 0.04533148802654541, "wage_share": 0.760616020987218, "private_debt_ratio": 0.45215572895294787, "output_index": 1.019313548086517, "price_index": 1.0161799761173351, "profit_share": 0.22329085230788864, "banker_share": 0.01609312670489332, "investment_share": 0.29600593450949086, "inflation_rate": 0.10849281678977452, "growth_rate": 0.018668644836496953, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.12716146162627145, "private_credit": 0.07271508220160222, "credit_real": 0.07271508220160222, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.035806016950633, "capital_asset": 3.1074180508518987, "debt_liability": 0.4683456246481629, "firm_equity": 2.639072426203736 }, { "step": 48.0, "time": 0.75, "employment_rate": 0.9481511964731656, "unemployment_rate": 0.05184880352683441, "wage_share": 0.8247876021004905, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4576617681117394, "output_index": 1.022529250946338, "price_index": 1.051530017475062, "profit_share": 0.15892330024887646, "banker_share": 0.01628909765063303, "investment_share": 0.2635703134428413, "inflation_rate": 0.15983008168039248, "growth_rate": 0.007856771147613767, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.16768685282800624, "private_credit": 0.10464701319396486, "credit_real": 0.10464701319396486, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0752202011163647, "capital_asset": 3.225660603349094, "debt_liability": 0.49208717835237553, "firm_equity": 2.7335734249967185 }, { "step": 64.0, "time": 1.0, "employment_rate": 0.939983437530665, "unemployment_rate": 0.060016562469334955, "wage_share": 0.8506638523917116, "private_debt_ratio": 0.46544449750019495, "output_index": 1.023908832385468, "price_index": 1.097869943830002, "profit_share": 0.13277004705326145, "banker_share": 0.016566100555026938, "investment_share": 0.25155000164560176, "inflation_rate": 0.1805310819133693, "growth_rate": 0.003850000548533919, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1843810824619032, "private_credit": 0.11877995459234031, "credit_real": 0.11877995459234031, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1241187322980766, "capital_asset": 3.3723561968942297, "debt_liability": 0.5232148784850345, "firm_equity": 2.8491413184091954 }, { "step": 80.0, "time": 1.25, "employment_rate": 0.9314989376592978, "unemployment_rate": 0.06850106234070219, "wage_share": 0.8484273765956906, "private_debt_ratio": 0.47355920342127406, "output_index": 1.0248643741142776, "price_index": 1.1487048790027135, "profit_share": 0.13471770423613946, "banker_share": 0.016854919168169984, "investment_share": 0.25242344301217845, "inflation_rate": 0.17874190127655254, "growth_rate": 0.004141147670726153, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1828830489472787, "private_credit": 0.11770573877603899, "credit_real": 0.11770573877603899, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1772667068611329, "capital_asset": 3.531800120583399, "debt_liability": 0.5575054839155447, "firm_equity": 2.974294636667854 }, { "step": 96.0, "time": 1.5, "employment_rate": 0.9234590370263259, "unemployment_rate": 0.07654096297367408, "wage_share": 0.8308523560622245, "private_debt_ratio": 0.48071823779026585, "output_index": 1.0262297799603746, "price_index": 1.1992908790622523, "profit_share": 0.15203792041834435, "banker_share": 0.01710972351943114, "investment_share": 0.2603438751643936, "inflation_rate": 0.16468188484977964, "growth_rate": 0.006781291721464536, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17146317657124416, "private_credit": 0.10830595474604926, "credit_real": 0.10830595474604926, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2307480149285392, "capital_asset": 3.6922440447856175, "debt_liability": 0.5916430169003152, "firm_equity": 3.1006010278853022 }, { "step": 112.0, "time": 1.75, "employment_rate": 0.9162408929879075, "unemployment_rate": 0.08375910701209255, "wage_share": 0.806857742100591, "private_debt_ratio": 0.48644403713922507, "output_index": 1.028441500501518, "price_index": 1.2467711534838344, "profit_share": 0.17582874172954968, "banker_share": 0.017313516169859298, "investment_share": 0.27168508257588164, "inflation_rate": 0.1454861936804729, "growth_rate": 0.010561694191960541, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.15604788787243343, "private_credit": 0.09585634084633196, "credit_real": 0.09585634084633196, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.282231195870923, "capital_asset": 3.846693587612769, "debt_liability": 0.6237337194653082, "firm_equity": 3.2229598681474605 }, { "step": 128.0, "time": 2.0, "employment_rate": 0.9099990057953643, "unemployment_rate": 0.0900009942046357, "wage_share": 0.7814027982203439, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4907407084530625, "output_index": 1.0317008420462461, "price_index": 1.2896640059116864, "profit_share": 0.20113075848439474, "banker_share": 0.0174664432952614, "investment_share": 0.28436004222620304, "inflation_rate": 0.12512223857627514, "growth_rate": 0.014786680742067682, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.13990891931834282, "private_credit": 0.0832292837418083, "credit_real": 0.0832292837418083, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3305474408558218, "capital_asset": 3.9916423225674653, "debt_liability": 0.6529537937559953, "firm_equity": 3.33868852881147 }, { "step": 144.0, "time": 2.25, "employment_rate": 0.9047665718029179, "unemployment_rate": 0.09523342819708214, "wage_share": 0.7569017817857513, "private_debt_ratio": 0.49381090485294593, "output_index": 1.036077776685376, "price_index": 1.3273504280300497, "profit_share": 0.22552250048872266, "banker_share": 0.01757571772552605, "investment_share": 0.297207897805821, "inflation_rate": 0.1055214254286011, "growth_rate": 0.01906929926860701, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.12459072469720811, "private_credit": 0.07168539731709836, "credit_real": 0.07168539731709836, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.375238280355756, "capital_asset": 4.125714841067268, "debt_liability": 0.6791076596108852, "firm_equity": 3.4466071814563826 }, { "step": 160.0, "time": 2.5, "employment_rate": 0.9005136347971192, "unemployment_rate": 0.09948636520288079, "wage_share": 0.7343822687121201, "private_debt_ratio": 0.49590360148667606, "output_index": 1.0415714081720262, "price_index": 1.3597161984824884, "profit_share": 0.24796753030376614, "banker_share": 0.017650200984113774, "investment_share": 0.30960293108966985, "inflation_rate": 0.08750581496969612, "growth_rate": 0.02320097702988995, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.11070679199958607, "private_credit": 0.06163540078590371, "credit_real": 0.06163540078590371, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4162415155677197, "capital_asset": 4.248724546703159, "debt_liability": 0.7023192681449806, "firm_equity": 3.5464052785581788 }, { "step": 176.0, "time": 2.75, "employment_rate": 0.8971793925019952, "unemployment_rate": 0.10282060749800481, "wage_share": 0.7141756478355024, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4972496911972515, "output_index": 1.048144093268017, "price_index": 1.3869298735548448, "profit_share": 0.26812624115540507, "banker_share": 0.017698111009092573, "investment_share": 0.32122470806436565, "inflation_rate": 0.07134051826840193, "growth_rate": 0.027074902688121877, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.09841542095652381, "private_credit": 0.053098466908960584, "credit_real": 0.053098466908960584, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4537023547434682, "capital_asset": 4.361107064230405, "debt_liability": 0.722853046988907, "firm_equity": 3.638254017241498 }, { "step": 191.0, "time": 2.984375, "employment_rate": 0.8948221472447409, "unemployment_rate": 0.10517785275525915, "wage_share": 0.6973375592195683, "private_debt_ratio": 0.49800516158834496, "output_index": 1.055236821069992, "price_index": 1.4080465483406055, "profit_share": 0.28493744106917934, "banker_share": 0.017724999711252375, "investment_share": 0.3312851570431006, "inflation_rate": 0.05787004737565471, "growth_rate": 0.030428385681033523, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.08829843305668823, "private_credit": 0.04634771597392123, "credit_real": 0.04634771597392123, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4858225635895155, "capital_asset": 4.457467690768547, "debt_liability": 0.7399473058720056, "firm_equity": 3.717520384896541 } ], "final_state_at_year3": { "employment_rate": 0.8946898246962127, "wage_share": 0.6962849985574208, "private_debt_ratio": 0.49804147437138174, "output_index": 1.0557404086709417, "price_index": 1.409311023537232 }, "native_full_metrics_canonical_json_sha256": "a2cc447244365c9dac0cf6a228efc112527ee0e9fcfcd6c407a55c23c5c4ae26", "native_record_count": 192, "sfc_consistent": true }, { "arm_bp": 200, "scenario": { "name": "bracket1_dr0.450043_r0.035592_200bp", "type": "keen_monetary_minsky_v1", "time": { "dt": 0.015625, "steps": 192 }, "initial_state": { "employment_rate": 0.9555, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0 }, "params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "investment_floor": 0.03, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "nonlinear": 1.0, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "population_growth": 0.01, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "real_interest_rate": 0.035592, "rate_shock_size": 0.02, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0 }, "events": [] }, "scenario_canonical_json_sha256": "b6e8579137324ab5a57d5501f81ab3d8b34121e6f21092428eee5dc1a6ce4cae", "effective_runtime_params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "population_growth": 0.01, "real_interest_rate": 0.035592, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "investment_floor": 0.03, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "nonlinear": 1.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "rate_shock_size": 0.02, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0, "gov_response_slope": 0.5, "gov_employment_target": 0.92, "phillips_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_crossing": 0.05, "crisis_debt_threshold": 2.5, "crisis_debt_slope": 2.0, "crisis_employment_level": 0.5, "crisis_employment_slope": 15.0 }, "samples": [ { "step": 0.0, "time": 0.0, "employment_rate": 0.9555, "unemployment_rate": 0.044499999999999984, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0, "profit_share": 0.40667820954399997, "banker_share": 0.025018790456000004, "investment_share": 0.41529070538715585, "inflation_rate": -0.0453576, "growth_rate": 0.05843023512905195, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.013072635129051949, "private_credit": 0.008612495843155876, "credit_real": 0.008612495843155876, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0, "capital_asset": 3.0, "debt_liability": 0.450043, "firm_equity": 2.549957 }, { "step": 16.0, "time": 0.25, "employment_rate": 0.9571754462888852, "unemployment_rate": 0.04282455371111482, "wage_share": 0.6639795639433904, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4509421073363061, "output_index": 1.0118212657801682, "price_index": 0.9980354432506372, "profit_share": 0.31095166242556965, "banker_share": 0.025068773631039928, "investment_share": 0.3475423402027873, "inflation_rate": 0.031183651154712333, "growth_rate": 0.035847446734262434, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.06703109788897477, "private_credit": 0.03659067777721764, "credit_real": 0.03659067777721764, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0098334854833309, "capital_asset": 3.0295004564499926, "debt_liability": 0.4553764400026203, "firm_equity": 2.574124016447372 }, { "step": 32.0, "time": 0.5, "employment_rate": 0.9539040156732828, "unemployment_rate": 0.04609598432671724, "wage_share": 0.7554060402879623, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4540126479724509, "output_index": 1.0184972841933921, "price_index": 1.0154291677509095, "profit_share": 0.2193544885859532, "banker_share": 0.02523947112608449, "investment_share": 0.2938989774597587, "inflation_rate": 0.10432483223036992, "growth_rate": 0.017966325819919554, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.12229115805028948, "private_credit": 0.07454448887380549, "credit_real": 0.07454448887380549, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0342118496450579, "capital_asset": 3.1026355489351736, "debt_liability": 0.469545260421839, "firm_equity": 2.6330902885133347 }, { "step": 48.0, "time": 0.75, "employment_rate": 0.9473079578169886, "unemployment_rate": 0.05269204218301138, "wage_share": 0.8159747887817514, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4603813646816433, "output_index": 1.0216198641368535, "price_index": 1.0492560411240366, "profit_share": 0.15843169039286664, "banker_share": 0.025593520825381917, "investment_share": 0.26333845795293365, "inflation_rate": 0.15277983102540116, "growth_rate": 0.0077794859843112185, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.16055931700971238, "private_credit": 0.104906767560067, "credit_real": 0.104906767560067, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.071940814177911, "capital_asset": 3.215822442533733, "debt_liability": 0.4935015748891785, "firm_equity": 2.7223208676445543 }, { "step": 64.0, "time": 1.0, "employment_rate": 0.9391637546498519, "unemployment_rate": 0.06083624535014809, "wage_share": 0.8400792460596559, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4688716956365332, "output_index": 1.023015965013651, "price_index": 1.0933370098848307, "profit_share": 0.14323267254924862, "banker_share": 0.01668808139109549, "investment_share": 0.25628265920429216, "inflation_rate": 0.17206339684772476, "growth_rate": 0.0054275530680973905, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17749094991582215, "private_credit": 0.11304998665504354, "credit_real": 0.11304998665504354, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.11850121625247, "capital_asset": 3.3555036487574097, "debt_liability": 0.5244335618358202, "firm_equity": 2.8310700869215895 }, { "step": 80.0, "time": 1.25, "employment_rate": 0.9310552464005561, "unemployment_rate": 0.06894475359944385, "wage_share": 0.8380561911504376, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4762211056301679, "output_index": 1.0243762110624417, "price_index": 1.1415327728634361, "profit_share": 0.14499414725797344, "banker_share": 0.016949661591588935, "investment_share": 0.25708932834264764, "inflation_rate": 0.1704449529203501, "growth_rate": 0.005696442780882549, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17614139570123266, "private_credit": 0.1120951810846742, "credit_real": 0.1120951810846742, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1693590166694496, "capital_asset": 3.5080770500083487, "debt_liability": 0.5568734437969313, "firm_equity": 2.9512036062114175 }, { "step": 96.0, "time": 1.5, "employment_rate": 0.9233614627475989, "unemployment_rate": 0.0766385372524011, "wage_share": 0.8218451417554944, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4827312960907977, "output_index": 1.026121346747235, "price_index": 1.1894840822000474, "profit_share": 0.16097348595404193, "banker_share": 0.01718137229046367, "investment_share": 0.2645397186188386, "inflation_rate": 0.1574761134043956, "growth_rate": 0.008179906206279536, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.16565601961067514, "private_credit": 0.1035662326647967, "credit_real": 0.1035662326647967, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2205550083615113, "capital_asset": 3.6616650250845337, "debt_liability": 0.5892001011364667, "firm_equity": 3.072464923948067 }, { "step": 112.0, "time": 1.75, "employment_rate": 0.916442221142611, "unemployment_rate": 0.08355777885738902, "wage_share": 0.799471189685038, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4879653366204692, "output_index": 1.028667482807156, "price_index": 1.234550549530335, "profit_share": 0.18316114805396622, "banker_share": 0.017367662260995738, "investment_share": 0.2752917967779096, "inflation_rate": 0.13957695174803053, "growth_rate": 0.011763932259303195, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.15134088400733373, "private_credit": 0.09213064872394339, "credit_real": 0.09213064872394339, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.269942006183561, "capital_asset": 3.809826018550683, "debt_liability": 0.6196876785358353, "firm_equity": 3.1901383400148475 }, { "step": 128.0, "time": 2.0, "employment_rate": 0.9104500979610691, "unemployment_rate": 0.08954990203893087, "wage_share": 0.7755186795592685, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4919107872569523, "output_index": 1.032212262568945, "price_index": 1.2753337202044888, "profit_share": 0.2069732317006821, "banker_share": 0.017508088740049447, "investment_share": 0.2873800351421011, "inflation_rate": 0.12041494364741478, "growth_rate": 0.015793345047367027, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1362082886947818, "private_credit": 0.08040680344141898, "credit_real": 0.08040680344141898, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.316415104862745, "capital_asset": 3.949245314588235, "debt_liability": 0.6475587905899763, "firm_equity": 3.3016865239982587 }, { "step": 144.0, "time": 2.25, "employment_rate": 0.9054222413344638, "unemployment_rate": 0.0945777586655362, "wage_share": 0.7522922170610303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.49473840947982356, "output_index": 1.0368286052986966, "price_index": 1.3112299431676002, "profit_share": 0.2300990534687638, "banker_share": 0.017608729470205878, "investment_share": 0.29968984067658966, "inflation_rate": 0.10183377364882429, "growth_rate": 0.019896613558863213, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1217303872076875, "private_credit": 0.06959078720782585, "credit_real": 0.06959078720782585, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3595207132003522, "capital_asset": 4.078562139601057, "debt_liability": 0.6726071153036176, "firm_equity": 3.4059550242974392 }, { "step": 160.0, "time": 2.5, "employment_rate": 0.9013343472457818, "unemployment_rate": 0.09866565275421824, "wage_share": 0.7308170543666523, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4966671378352878, "output_index": 1.0425206782195056, "price_index": 1.3421098935999445, "profit_share": 0.2515055688635141, "banker_share": 0.017677376769833563, "investment_share": 0.3116085669148504, "inflation_rate": 0.08465364349332194, "growth_rate": 0.023869522304950125, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.10852316579827206, "private_credit": 0.06010299805133629, "credit_real": 0.06010299805133629, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3991773165209225, "capital_asset": 4.197531949562768, "debt_liability": 0.6949253931205052, "firm_equity": 3.5026065564422626 }, { "step": 176.0, "time": 2.75, "employment_rate": 0.8981312548459592, "unemployment_rate": 0.10186874515404076, "wage_share": 0.7114569169991699, "private_debt_ratio": 0.497904265372919, "output_index": 1.0492561215889633, "price_index": 1.3681152782284864, "profit_share": 0.2708216743876772, "banker_share": 0.017721408613152932, "investment_share": 0.3228148451662539, "inflation_rate": 0.06916553359933597, "growth_rate": 0.0276049483887513, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.09677048198808727, "private_credit": 0.051993170778576736, "credit_real": 0.051993170778576736, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.435503330720627, "capital_asset": 4.306509992161882, "debt_liability": 0.7147432313228322, "firm_equity": 3.5917667608390493 }, { "step": 191.0, "time": 2.984375, "employment_rate": 0.8958706412595692, "unemployment_rate": 0.10412935874043083, "wage_share": 0.6952668185920121, "private_debt_ratio": 0.4985921396256991, "output_index": 1.0564732784984607, "price_index": 1.3883246898884418, "profit_share": 0.28698728997443, "banker_share": 0.01774589143355788, "investment_share": 0.3325353985947497, "inflation_rate": 0.056213454873609736, "growth_rate": 0.030845132864916552, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.08705858773852629, "private_credit": 0.04554810862031966, "credit_real": 0.04554810862031966, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.466727936746801, "capital_asset": 4.400183810240403, "debt_liability": 0.7312990202313745, "firm_equity": 3.6688847900090282 } ], "final_state_at_year3": { "employment_rate": 0.8957439471147387, "wage_share": 0.694253200689731, "private_debt_ratio": 0.49862485793727934, "output_index": 1.0569842806835719, "price_index": 1.389535825515432 }, "native_full_metrics_canonical_json_sha256": "b9a2a7287322e5202fe8447fccc4616dfb063fa2edccb6b8896fc2ad6f12bb70", "native_record_count": 192, "sfc_consistent": true } ], "committed_effects_200bp": { "peak_additional_output_shortfall": { "value": 0.089126, "unit": "percent of paired baseline output", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "cumulative_output_shortfall_clipped": { "value": 0.030332, "unit": "percent of baseline output over the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "cumulative_output_difference_signed": { "value": -0.00301, "unit": "percent of baseline output over the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "note": "published beside the clipped measure because the clipped one alone hides offsets" }, "peak_additional_employment_shortfall": { "value": 0.084393, "unit": "percentage points of the labour-force fraction", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "persistence_output_gap_at_horizon": { "value": 0.117173, "unit": "signed percent of baseline output at the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "persistence_employment_gap_at_horizon": { "value": 0.104849, "unit": "signed percentage points at the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "absolute_baseline_output_at_horizon": { "value": 1.055237, "unit": "index", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "note": "carried beside the gaps so a collapsing baseline cannot make relative resilience look healthy" }, "recovery": { "recovered_within_horizon": true, "first_sustained_return_year": 1.0, "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "tolerance_status": "PROPOSED IN SR-1 AND NOT IN FORCE - section 50 adopts no bound, so this is reported against a stated candidate tolerance (1.0% output, 0.5pp employment, sustained 2 quarters) rather than judged", "censoring_note": "'not recovered within the horizon' is CENSORED, not infinite, and must never be averaged or ranked as a number" } }, "effects_match_committed_artifact_exactly": true }, { "id": "D_B/R_LOW", "debt_endpoint": "D_B", "rate_endpoint": "R_LOW", "status": "Conditional on assumed state; not a measurement, forecast or probability.", "paths": [ { "arm_bp": 0, "scenario": { "name": "bracket1_dr0.722000_r0.005958_0bp", "type": "keen_monetary_minsky_v1", "time": { "dt": 0.015625, "steps": 192 }, "initial_state": { "employment_rate": 0.9555, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.722, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0 }, "params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "investment_floor": 0.03, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "nonlinear": 1.0, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "population_growth": 0.01, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "real_interest_rate": 0.005958, "rate_shock_size": 0.0, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0 }, "events": [] }, "scenario_canonical_json_sha256": "60e2f87d1782a600d784b2e6a993835e26150e70b17524e55264bd3abd5aeabe", "effective_runtime_params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "population_growth": 0.01, "real_interest_rate": 0.005958, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "investment_floor": 0.03, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "nonlinear": 1.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "rate_shock_size": 0.0, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0, "gov_response_slope": 0.5, "gov_employment_target": 0.92, "phillips_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_crossing": 0.05, "crisis_debt_threshold": 2.5, "crisis_debt_slope": 2.0, "crisis_employment_level": 0.5, "crisis_employment_slope": 15.0 }, "samples": [ { "step": 0.0, "time": 0.0, "employment_rate": 0.9555, "unemployment_rate": 0.044499999999999984, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.722, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0, "profit_share": 0.427395324, "banker_share": 0.004301676, "investment_share": 0.4317583886862073, "inflation_rate": -0.0453576, "growth_rate": 0.06391946289540244, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.018561862895402445, "private_credit": 0.004363064686207285, "credit_real": 0.004363064686207285, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0, "capital_asset": 3.0, "debt_liability": 0.722, "firm_equity": 2.278 }, { "step": 16.0, "time": 0.25, "employment_rate": 0.9583121855199898, "unemployment_rate": 0.041687814480010243, "wage_share": 0.6673785254120943, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7179015089885691, "output_index": 1.0130229022535409, "price_index": 0.9982580720685472, "profit_share": 0.3283442173973518, "banker_share": 0.004277257190553894, "investment_share": 0.3588979890808378, "inflation_rate": 0.03390282032967551, "growth_rate": 0.03963266302694593, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.07353548335662144, "private_credit": 0.030553771683485997, "credit_real": 0.030553771683485997, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.011258289364904, "capital_asset": 3.033774868094712, "debt_liability": 0.7259838519122637, "firm_equity": 2.307791016182448 }, { "step": 32.0, "time": 0.5, "employment_rate": 0.9556678843556248, "unemployment_rate": 0.044332115644375225, "wage_share": 0.7677717619418093, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7118224052677625, "output_index": 1.020380592611347, "price_index": 1.0172061720437453, "profit_share": 0.22798720016760537, "banker_share": 0.004241037890585329, "investment_share": 0.29854169489773275, "inflation_rate": 0.1142174095534475, "growth_rate": 0.019513898299244242, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.13373130785269174, "private_credit": 0.07055449473012737, "credit_real": 0.07055449473012737, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0379374366379166, "capital_asset": 3.11381230991375, "debt_liability": 0.7388271226650577, "firm_equity": 2.3749851872486922 }, { "step": 48.0, "time": 0.75, "employment_rate": 0.9492312726085934, "unemployment_rate": 0.05076872739140659, "wage_share": 0.8369086139538113, "private_debt_ratio": 0.706126430719871, "output_index": 1.0236940540345276, "price_index": 1.0546584375157135, "profit_share": 0.15888428477195968, "banker_share": 0.0042071012742289915, "investment_share": 0.2635519043558753, "inflation_rate": 0.1695268911630491, "growth_rate": 0.007850634785291757, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17737752594834083, "private_credit": 0.1046676195839156, "credit_real": 0.1046676195839156, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0796475715221814, "capital_asset": 3.2389427145665444, "debt_liability": 0.7623676861143346, "firm_equity": 2.47657502845221 }, { "step": 64.0, "time": 1.0, "employment_rate": 0.9410081537071863, "unemployment_rate": 0.05899184629281373, "wage_share": 0.865132733052196, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7014467749446057, "output_index": 1.0250250392269242, "price_index": 1.1041194241174097, "profit_share": 0.13068804706268408, "banker_share": 0.0041792198851199605, "investment_share": 0.25062010588547246, "inflation_rate": 0.1921061864417568, "growth_rate": 0.0035400352951574787, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1956462217369143, "private_credit": 0.11993205882278837, "credit_real": 0.11993205882278837, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.131750056017157, "capital_asset": 3.395250168051471, "debt_liability": 0.7938624268366116, "firm_equity": 2.601387741214859 }, { "step": 80.0, "time": 1.25, "employment_rate": 0.9324418348368867, "unemployment_rate": 0.0675581651631133, "wage_share": 0.8629533588534093, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6972426038243796, "output_index": 1.025901779189791, "price_index": 1.1586312121118798, "profit_share": 0.13289246971300506, "banker_share": 0.004154171433585653, "investment_share": 0.2516048018369593, "inflation_rate": 0.19036268708272752, "growth_rate": 0.0038682672789864397, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.19423095436171395, "private_credit": 0.11871233212395427, "credit_real": 0.11871233212395427, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1886418219304018, "capital_asset": 3.5659254657912056, "debt_liability": 0.8287717189373079, "firm_equity": 2.7371537468538976 }, { "step": 96.0, "time": 1.5, "employment_rate": 0.9243522813196847, "unemployment_rate": 0.07564771868031528, "wage_share": 0.8442766261146417, "private_debt_ratio": 0.692961799326113, "output_index": 1.0272224324309984, "price_index": 1.2130536202997606, "profit_share": 0.1515947074849733, "banker_share": 0.004128666400384981, "investment_share": 0.2601377222493249, "inflation_rate": 0.17542130089171337, "growth_rate": 0.006712574083108297, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.18213387497482167, "private_credit": 0.1085430147643516, "credit_real": 0.1085430147643516, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.246075890513549, "capital_asset": 3.738227671540647, "debt_liability": 0.8634829911871574, "firm_equity": 2.8747446803534893 }, { "step": 112.0, "time": 1.75, "employment_rate": 0.9171419050157263, "unemployment_rate": 0.08285809498427366, "wage_share": 0.8188220531424787, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6883845369144139, "output_index": 1.0294528482474563, "price_index": 1.2642867371465405, "profit_share": 0.17707655178658524, "banker_share": 0.004101395070936078, "investment_share": 0.2722950977441718, "inflation_rate": 0.15505764251398302, "growth_rate": 0.01076503258139061, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.16582267509537363, "private_credit": 0.09521854595758658, "credit_real": 0.09521854595758658, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3015235825569893, "capital_asset": 3.904570747670968, "debt_liability": 0.8959487086616821, "firm_equity": 3.008622039009286 }, { "step": 128.0, "time": 2.0, "employment_rate": 0.9109730066275016, "unemployment_rate": 0.08902699337249842, "wage_share": 0.7919354692909678, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6835232224922377, "output_index": 1.0328051042182596, "price_index": 1.310724763366096, "profit_share": 0.20399209934942344, "banker_share": 0.004072431359608752, "investment_share": 0.2858346248373873, "inflation_rate": 0.1335483754327743, "growth_rate": 0.015278208279129096, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1488265837119034, "private_credit": 0.08184252548796386, "credit_real": 0.08184252548796386, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3537232258297742, "capital_asset": 4.061169677489323, "debt_liability": 0.9253012616817545, "firm_equity": 3.1358684158075683 }, { "step": 144.0, "time": 2.25, "employment_rate": 0.9058781117113708, "unemployment_rate": 0.09412188828862922, "wage_share": 0.7661762665586269, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6784833737821923, "output_index": 1.037350637368935, "price_index": 1.3516967307640886, "profit_share": 0.22978132950037877, "banker_share": 0.0040424039409943015, "investment_share": 0.2995167913179887, "inflation_rate": 0.11294101324690153, "growth_rate": 0.019838930439329563, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.13277994368623108, "private_credit": 0.06973546181760992, "credit_real": 0.06973546181760992, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.402183465187633, "capital_asset": 4.206550395562899, "debt_liability": 0.9513581681221104, "firm_equity": 3.2551922274407885 }, { "step": 160.0, "time": 2.5, "employment_rate": 0.9018227122427076, "unemployment_rate": 0.0981772877572924, "wage_share": 0.7426073469890123, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6733841786301406, "output_index": 1.043085541424117, "price_index": 1.3870765240086294, "profit_share": 0.2533806300747093, "banker_share": 0.004012022936278377, "investment_share": 0.31267732380427404, "inflation_rate": 0.0940858775912099, "growth_rate": 0.02422577460142468, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.11831165219263458, "private_credit": 0.05929669372956475, "credit_real": 0.05929669372956475, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4468394670422233, "capital_asset": 4.34051840112667, "debt_liability": 0.9742788061238978, "firm_equity": 3.366239595002772 }, { "step": 176.0, "time": 2.75, "employment_rate": 0.8987398360524048, "unemployment_rate": 0.10126016394759518, "wage_share": 0.7215531888913927, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6683263192449903, "output_index": 1.0499671062617488, "price_index": 1.4170424780465436, "profit_share": 0.27446492289854557, "banker_share": 0.003981888210061652, "investment_share": 0.3249779416593772, "inflation_rate": 0.07724255111311418, "growth_rate": 0.02832598055312574, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.10556853166623992, "private_credit": 0.05051301876083164, "credit_real": 0.05051301876083164, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4878479901245072, "capital_asset": 4.463543970373522, "debt_liability": 0.9943679708359686, "firm_equity": 3.469175999537553 }, { "step": 191.0, "time": 2.984375, "employment_rate": 0.8966611563377426, "unemployment_rate": 0.10333884366225743, "wage_share": 0.7040867578297645, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6636882770059301, "output_index": 1.057405509132969, "price_index": 1.4405207523406622, "profit_share": 0.2919589874158342, "banker_share": 0.003954254754401331, "investment_share": 0.3355893245684871, "inflation_rate": 0.06326940626381161, "growth_rate": 0.0318631081894957, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.09513251445330731, "private_credit": 0.04363033715265291, "credit_real": 0.04363033715265291, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.5232145795453855, "capital_asset": 4.569643738636157, "debt_liability": 1.0109396598087892, "firm_equity": 3.5587040788273674 } ], "final_state_at_year3": { "employment_rate": 0.896548738894812, "wage_share": 0.7029976023035096, "private_debt_ratio": 0.663383785480249, "output_index": 1.0579339407549564, "price_index": 1.4419357035345544 }, "native_full_metrics_canonical_json_sha256": "f25b21e7e1da1616194f412e03d5ab4b21c588220112c8b91425ce87a5ab4feb", "native_record_count": 192, "sfc_consistent": true }, { "arm_bp": 200, "scenario": { "name": "bracket1_dr0.722000_r0.005958_200bp", "type": "keen_monetary_minsky_v1", "time": { "dt": 0.015625, "steps": 192 }, "initial_state": { "employment_rate": 0.9555, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.722, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0 }, "params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "investment_floor": 0.03, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "nonlinear": 1.0, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "population_growth": 0.01, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "real_interest_rate": 0.005958, "rate_shock_size": 0.02, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0 }, "events": [] }, "scenario_canonical_json_sha256": "fe013c545d51e199bbd28f71a549e608e2230e21f7f8e4320f1d508d2427fc22", "effective_runtime_params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "population_growth": 0.01, "real_interest_rate": 0.005958, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "investment_floor": 0.03, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "nonlinear": 1.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "rate_shock_size": 0.02, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0, "gov_response_slope": 0.5, "gov_employment_target": 0.92, "phillips_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_crossing": 0.05, "crisis_debt_threshold": 2.5, "crisis_debt_slope": 2.0, "crisis_employment_level": 0.5, "crisis_employment_slope": 15.0 }, "samples": [ { "step": 0.0, "time": 0.0, "employment_rate": 0.9555, "unemployment_rate": 0.044499999999999984, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.722, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0, "profit_share": 0.412955324, "banker_share": 0.018741676000000002, "investment_share": 0.4202077023910036, "inflation_rate": -0.0453576, "growth_rate": 0.060069234130334534, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.014711634130334536, "private_credit": 0.007252378391003567, "credit_real": 0.007252378391003567, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0, "capital_asset": 3.0, "debt_liability": 0.722, "firm_equity": 2.278 }, { "step": 16.0, "time": 0.25, "employment_rate": 0.9575174257345742, "unemployment_rate": 0.04248257426542579, "wage_share": 0.664982767834311, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7195231835954945, "output_index": 1.0121827690729546, "price_index": 0.998101308833363, "profit_share": 0.3163398493659172, "banker_share": 0.01867738279977185, "investment_share": 0.3510177413331247, "inflation_rate": 0.031986214267448854, "growth_rate": 0.03700591377770823, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.06899212804515709, "private_credit": 0.0346778919672075, "credit_real": 0.0346778919672075, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0102609465902936, "capital_asset": 3.0307828397708807, "debt_liability": 0.726906172552846, "firm_equity": 2.303876667218035 }, { "step": 32.0, "time": 0.5, "employment_rate": 0.9544456568098036, "unemployment_rate": 0.045554343190196356, "wage_share": 0.7590436750908891, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7153650847830507, "output_index": 1.019075602365336, "price_index": 1.015952168072022, "profit_share": 0.22238687803831247, "banker_share": 0.018569446870798433, "investment_share": 0.2955205949411237, "inflation_rate": 0.10723494007271128, "growth_rate": 0.01850686498037457, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.12574180505308585, "private_credit": 0.07313371690281123, "credit_real": 0.07313371690281123, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.035332067652365, "capital_asset": 3.105996202957095, "debt_liability": 0.7406404123547453, "firm_equity": 2.3653557906023495 }, { "step": 48.0, "time": 0.75, "employment_rate": 0.947921141789333, "unemployment_rate": 0.052078858210667045, "wage_share": 0.8221802642619678, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7115504724390366, "output_index": 1.022281149541825, "price_index": 1.0508464556957502, "profit_share": 0.15934930857445972, "banker_share": 0.018470427163572514, "investment_share": 0.2637714159229564, "inflation_rate": 0.1577442114095743, "growth_rate": 0.007923805307652132, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.16566801671722642, "private_credit": 0.10442210734849666, "credit_real": 0.10442210734849666, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.074260522720604, "capital_asset": 3.2227815681618117, "debt_liability": 0.7643905824644521, "firm_equity": 2.45839098569736 }, { "step": 64.0, "time": 1.0, "employment_rate": 0.9397863681440818, "unemployment_rate": 0.060213631855918215, "wage_share": 0.8476254119384901, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7085495500057617, "output_index": 1.0236941678738842, "price_index": 1.0965255018080509, "profit_share": 0.1481530498425756, "banker_share": 0.004221538218934328, "investment_share": 0.25854316042526054, "inflation_rate": 0.17810032955079214, "growth_rate": 0.006181053475086851, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.184281383025879, "private_credit": 0.11039011058268494, "credit_real": 0.11039011058268494, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1225067611258859, "capital_asset": 3.3675202833776576, "debt_liability": 0.7953516604741715, "firm_equity": 2.572168622903486 }, { "step": 80.0, "time": 1.25, "employment_rate": 0.9318438872589335, "unemployment_rate": 0.06815611274106648, "wage_share": 0.8460204764834915, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7036332456248967, "output_index": 1.0252438984929328, "price_index": 1.146649342253442, "profit_share": 0.14978727663907532, "banker_share": 0.004192246877433134, "investment_share": 0.25929893531598236, "inflation_rate": 0.17681638118679333, "growth_rate": 0.00643297843866078, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1832493596254541, "private_credit": 0.10951165867690704, "credit_real": 0.10951165867690704, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.175595241856276, "capital_asset": 3.5267857255688284, "debt_liability": 0.8271878955685169, "firm_equity": 2.6995978300003114 }, { "step": 96.0, "time": 1.5, "employment_rate": 0.9243207729194138, "unemployment_rate": 0.07567922708058616, "wage_share": 0.829770486175507, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6987376639732713, "output_index": 1.027187417495437, "price_index": 1.1967227301927696, "profit_share": 0.16606643482254027, "banker_share": 0.0041630790019527505, "investment_share": 0.2669653042645659, "inflation_rate": 0.16381638894040562, "growth_rate": 0.008988434754855293, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1728048236952609, "private_credit": 0.10089886944202561, "credit_real": 0.10089886944202561, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2292585306847996, "capital_asset": 3.6877755920543986, "debt_liability": 0.8589292341499127, "firm_equity": 2.828846357904486 }, { "step": 112.0, "time": 1.75, "employment_rate": 0.9175932231687256, "unemployment_rate": 0.0824067768312744, "wage_share": 0.8070987295096551, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6936880019122854, "output_index": 1.0299594337120734, "price_index": 1.244000209920443, "profit_share": 0.1887682773749515, "banker_share": 0.004132993115393396, "investment_share": 0.27808614459709996, "inflation_rate": 0.14567898360772413, "growth_rate": 0.012695381532366656, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1583743651400908, "private_credit": 0.08931786722214846, "credit_real": 0.08931786722214846, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.28126975174736, "capital_asset": 3.8438092552420797, "debt_liability": 0.8888014540002761, "firm_equity": 2.9550078012418037 }, { "step": 128.0, "time": 2.0, "employment_rate": 0.9118222977193343, "unemployment_rate": 0.08817770228066568, "wage_share": 0.7827457946970301, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6884833040879347, "output_index": 1.033767978165382, "price_index": 1.2870069144167966, "profit_share": 0.213152221777214, "banker_share": 0.0041019835257559145, "investment_share": 0.2906129970058581, "inflation_rate": 0.12619663575762408, "growth_rate": 0.016870999001952686, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.14306763475957676, "private_credit": 0.07746077522864409, "credit_real": 0.07746077522864409, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3304665358015186, "capital_asset": 3.991399607404556, "debt_liability": 0.916003996547058, "firm_equity": 3.075395610857498 }, { "step": 144.0, "time": 2.25, "employment_rate": 0.9070483762233708, "unemployment_rate": 0.09295162377662924, "wage_share": 0.759109658917403, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6831988352133909, "output_index": 1.0386907455156282, "price_index": 1.3250909489649003, "profit_share": 0.23681984242239562, "banker_share": 0.004070498660201383, "investment_share": 0.3033764852183084, "inflation_rate": 0.10728772713392243, "growth_rate": 0.021125495072769465, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.12841322220669188, "private_credit": 0.06655664279591278, "credit_real": 0.06655664279591278, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3763597056563637, "capital_asset": 4.129079116969091, "debt_liability": 0.9403273477390731, "firm_equity": 3.1887517692300182 }, { "step": 160.0, "time": 2.5, "employment_rate": 0.9032471234642172, "unemployment_rate": 0.0967528765357828, "wage_share": 0.7372648659601707, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6779247150830405, "output_index": 1.0447330745035472, "price_index": 1.358096433683517, "profit_share": 0.25869605858736455, "banker_share": 0.004039075452464755, "investment_share": 0.31572913680983916, "inflation_rate": 0.08981189276813661, "growth_rate": 0.025243045603279723, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.11505493837141634, "private_credit": 0.05703307822247461, "credit_real": 0.05703307822247461, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4188482626344836, "capital_asset": 4.256544787903451, "debt_liability": 0.9618723041925493, "firm_equity": 3.2946724837109014 }, { "step": 176.0, "time": 2.75, "employment_rate": 0.9003613677804811, "unemployment_rate": 0.09963863221951885, "wage_share": 0.7175995282325973, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6727387763521687, "output_index": 1.0518614864905371, "price_index": 1.386154051158657, "profit_share": 0.27839229413789646, "banker_share": 0.004008177629506221, "investment_share": 0.3273276302100121, "inflation_rate": 0.07407962258607792, "growth_rate": 0.029109210070004027, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.10318883265608195, "private_credit": 0.04893533607211564, "credit_real": 0.04893533607211564, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.458042060756625, "capital_asset": 4.374126182269874, "debt_liability": 0.9808814318234063, "firm_equity": 3.393244750446468 }, { "step": 191.0, "time": 2.984375, "employment_rate": 0.8984232738578348, "unemployment_rate": 0.10157672614216517, "wage_share": 0.7011925730553058, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6680083881455227, "output_index": 1.0594835212787135, "price_index": 1.4082207517465852, "profit_share": 0.2948274329681232, "banker_share": 0.003979993976571024, "investment_share": 0.3373653064523192, "inflation_rate": 0.06095405844424462, "growth_rate": 0.032455102150773074, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.09340916059501769, "private_credit": 0.04253787348419602, "credit_real": 0.04253787348419602, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4919866807982292, "capital_asset": 4.4759600423946875, "debt_liability": 0.9966596177746134, "firm_equity": 3.479300424620074 } ], "final_state_at_year3": { "employment_rate": 0.8983188613036157, "wage_share": 0.7001670360756675, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6676984296330326, "output_index": 1.0600226978903182, "price_index": 1.4095535431546928 }, "native_full_metrics_canonical_json_sha256": "fe65a2c089c924a433ac0c174293e0bc64a4b5a18a47aca948bd0ab8c41b9425", "native_record_count": 192, "sfc_consistent": true } ], "committed_effects_200bp": { "peak_additional_output_shortfall": { "value": 0.138103, "unit": "percent of paired baseline output", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "cumulative_output_shortfall_clipped": { "value": 0.045716, "unit": "percent of baseline output over the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "cumulative_output_difference_signed": { "value": -0.013759, "unit": "percent of baseline output over the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "note": "published beside the clipped measure because the clipped one alone hides offsets" }, "peak_additional_employment_shortfall": { "value": 0.131222, "unit": "percentage points of the labour-force fraction", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "persistence_output_gap_at_horizon": { "value": 0.19652, "unit": "signed percent of baseline output at the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "persistence_employment_gap_at_horizon": { "value": 0.176212, "unit": "signed percentage points at the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "absolute_baseline_output_at_horizon": { "value": 1.057406, "unit": "index", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "note": "carried beside the gaps so a collapsing baseline cannot make relative resilience look healthy" }, "recovery": { "recovered_within_horizon": true, "first_sustained_return_year": 1.0, "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "tolerance_status": "PROPOSED IN SR-1 AND NOT IN FORCE - section 50 adopts no bound, so this is reported against a stated candidate tolerance (1.0% output, 0.5pp employment, sustained 2 quarters) rather than judged", "censoring_note": "'not recovered within the horizon' is CENSORED, not infinite, and must never be averaged or ranked as a number" } }, "effects_match_committed_artifact_exactly": true }, { "id": "D_B/R_HIGH", "debt_endpoint": "D_B", "rate_endpoint": "R_HIGH", "status": "Conditional on assumed state; not a measurement, forecast or probability.", "paths": [ { "arm_bp": 0, "scenario": { "name": "bracket1_dr0.722000_r0.035592_0bp", "type": "keen_monetary_minsky_v1", "time": { "dt": 0.015625, "steps": 192 }, "initial_state": { "employment_rate": 0.9555, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.722, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0 }, "params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "investment_floor": 0.03, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "nonlinear": 1.0, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "population_growth": 0.01, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "real_interest_rate": 0.035592, "rate_shock_size": 0.0, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0 }, "events": [] }, "scenario_canonical_json_sha256": "500dfb0a1a7ca661f9b8bda000beeb739f59bade92d061ecb6bede9867b1e838", "effective_runtime_params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "population_growth": 0.01, "real_interest_rate": 0.035592, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "investment_floor": 0.03, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "nonlinear": 1.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "rate_shock_size": 0.0, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0, "gov_response_slope": 0.5, "gov_employment_target": 0.92, "phillips_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_crossing": 0.05, "crisis_debt_threshold": 2.5, "crisis_debt_slope": 2.0, "crisis_employment_level": 0.5, "crisis_employment_slope": 15.0 }, "samples": [ { "step": 0.0, "time": 0.0, "employment_rate": 0.9555, "unemployment_rate": 0.044499999999999984, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.722, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0, "profit_share": 0.40599957600000003, "banker_share": 0.025697423999999996, "investment_share": 0.4147628426734822, "inflation_rate": -0.0453576, "growth_rate": 0.058254280891160734, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.012896680891160736, "private_credit": 0.00876326667348215, "credit_real": 0.00876326667348215, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0, "capital_asset": 3.0, "debt_liability": 0.722, "firm_equity": 2.278 }, { "step": 16.0, "time": 0.25, "employment_rate": 0.9571412309293619, "unemployment_rate": 0.042858769070638125, "wage_share": 0.6638768913061277, "private_debt_ratio": 0.720324380543535, "output_index": 1.0117850970417028, "price_index": 0.99802860428209, "profit_share": 0.3104853233415668, "banker_share": 0.025637785352305497, "investment_share": 0.3472433247041852, "inflation_rate": 0.031101513044902163, "growth_rate": 0.03574777490139505, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.06684928794629721, "private_credit": 0.036758001362618364, "credit_real": 0.036758001362618364, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0097904682339496, "capital_asset": 3.0293714047018487, "debt_liability": 0.7273766935093858, "firm_equity": 2.301994711192463 }, { "step": 32.0, "time": 0.5, "employment_rate": 0.9538591698010112, "unemployment_rate": 0.04614083019898885, "wage_share": 0.7550651735618439, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7171058314470824, "output_index": 1.0184494015989531, "price_index": 1.015377771383729, "profit_share": 0.21941159568529156, "banker_share": 0.025523230752864556, "investment_share": 0.29392942468093175, "inflation_rate": 0.10405213884947517, "growth_rate": 0.017976474893643915, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.12202861374311909, "private_credit": 0.07451782899564019, "credit_real": 0.07451782899564019, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0341108836626376, "capital_asset": 3.102332650987913, "debt_liability": 0.7415669450373729, "firm_equity": 2.36076570595054 }, { "step": 48.0, "time": 0.75, "employment_rate": 0.947277697581203, "unemployment_rate": 0.05272230241879705, "wage_share": 0.8154708716903958, "private_debt_ratio": 0.714218745524475, "output_index": 1.0215872301262152, "price_index": 1.0491114357174327, "profit_share": 0.1591086547188971, "banker_share": 0.02542047359070711, "investment_share": 0.26365779103543974, "inflation_rate": 0.15237669735231663, "growth_rate": 0.007885930345146577, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1602626276974632, "private_credit": 0.10454913631654264, "credit_real": 0.10454913631654264, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.071758845708309, "capital_asset": 3.215276537124927, "debt_liability": 0.7654702582865477, "firm_equity": 2.449806278838379 }, { "step": 64.0, "time": 1.0, "employment_rate": 0.9391678850282277, "unemployment_rate": 0.06083211497177232, "wage_share": 0.8395886217834135, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7120611958430973, "output_index": 1.0230204641683491, "price_index": 1.0930745952848788, "profit_share": 0.13506769613413894, "banker_share": 0.02534368208244752, "investment_share": 0.2525807640834619, "inflation_rate": 0.17167089742673092, "growth_rate": 0.004193588027820633, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17586448545455155, "private_credit": 0.11751306794932298, "credit_real": 0.11751306794932298, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.118237679838967, "capital_asset": 3.354713039516901, "debt_liability": 0.7962536595429455, "firm_equity": 2.5584593799739554 }, { "step": 80.0, "time": 1.25, "employment_rate": 0.9307806850590655, "unemployment_rate": 0.06921931494093447, "wage_share": 0.8373500172473606, "private_debt_ratio": 0.71018075553894, "output_index": 1.024074130055124, "price_index": 1.141131608629206, "profit_share": 0.13737322930149748, "banker_share": 0.025276753451141953, "investment_share": 0.25361988381405465, "inflation_rate": 0.16988001379788853, "growth_rate": 0.0045399612713515475, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.17441997506924006, "private_credit": 0.11624665451255717, "credit_real": 0.11624665451255717, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1686033593853584, "capital_asset": 3.5058100781560753, "debt_liability": 0.8299196166936372, "firm_equity": 2.675890461462438 }, { "step": 96.0, "time": 1.5, "employment_rate": 0.9228319275477394, "unemployment_rate": 0.07716807245226065, "wage_share": 0.8206768177596093, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7081537344971746, "output_index": 1.0255328801560333, "price_index": 1.1888442273115234, "profit_share": 0.15411857452216723, "banker_share": 0.025204607718223436, "investment_share": 0.261314126883858, "inflation_rate": 0.1565414542076875, "growth_rate": 0.00710470896128601, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1636461631689735, "private_credit": 0.10719555236169079, "credit_real": 0.10719555236169079, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2191988444916606, "capital_asset": 3.657596533474982, "debt_liability": 0.8633802148214095, "firm_equity": 2.7942163186535725 }, { "step": 112.0, "time": 1.75, "employment_rate": 0.915678243877812, "unemployment_rate": 0.08432175612218795, "wage_share": 0.7978743550406099, "private_debt_ratio": 0.705820898432862, "output_index": 1.0278099507644665, "price_index": 1.2335434041869562, "profit_share": 0.1770040675423677, "banker_share": 0.025121577417022423, "investment_share": 0.27225962038814844, "inflation_rate": 0.13829948403248793, "growth_rate": 0.010753206796049478, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1490526908285374, "private_credit": 0.09525555284578074, "credit_real": 0.09525555284578074, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2678481855232278, "capital_asset": 3.8035445565696833, "debt_liability": 0.8948737453824785, "firm_equity": 2.908670811187205 }, { "step": 128.0, "time": 2.0, "employment_rate": 0.909466790316282, "unemployment_rate": 0.09053320968371803, "wage_share": 0.7735988492548318, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7032047974684158, "output_index": 1.0310974489057894, "price_index": 1.2738429418571817, "profit_share": 0.20137268559367236, "banker_share": 0.025028465151495854, "investment_share": 0.28448438895333117, "inflation_rate": 0.11887907940386544, "growth_rate": 0.014828129651110383, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.13370720905497582, "private_credit": 0.08311170335965881, "credit_real": 0.08311170335965881, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3134562076555858, "capital_asset": 3.9403686229667576, "debt_liability": 0.9236287064880797, "firm_equity": 3.016739916478678 }, { "step": 144.0, "time": 2.25, "employment_rate": 0.9042297970620173, "unemployment_rate": 0.09577020293798266, "wage_share": 0.7501480117204421, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7004014298427779, "output_index": 1.0354630983832978, "price_index": 1.3091631676940645, "profit_share": 0.22492330058859375, "banker_share": 0.02492868769096415, "investment_share": 0.29688463704373746, "inflation_rate": 0.10011840937635375, "growth_rate": 0.01896154568124582, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.11907995505759957, "private_credit": 0.07196133645514372, "credit_real": 0.07196133645514372, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3555901499097889, "capital_asset": 4.066770449729367, "debt_liability": 0.9494572792776017, "firm_equity": 3.117313170451765 }, { "step": 160.0, "time": 2.5, "employment_rate": 0.8999392342358011, "unemployment_rate": 0.10006076576419887, "wage_share": 0.7285203100892982, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6975174348889884, "output_index": 1.0409070326663277, "price_index": 1.3393982020615487, "profit_share": 0.24665364936813294, "banker_share": 0.024826040542568876, "investment_share": 0.3088617637311314, "inflation_rate": 0.08281624807143861, "growth_rate": 0.022953921243710457, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.10577016931514907, "private_credit": 0.062208114362998446, "credit_real": 0.062208114362998446, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.394189008066501, "capital_asset": 4.1825670241995025, "debt_liability": 0.9724711406569689, "firm_equity": 3.2100958835425337 }, { "step": 176.0, "time": 2.75, "employment_rate": 0.8965374073707919, "unemployment_rate": 0.1034625926292081, "wage_share": 0.7090530019763782, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6946439143435909, "output_index": 1.0473940839289033, "price_index": 1.3647086228628986, "profit_share": 0.2662232318243047, "banker_share": 0.024723766199317085, "investment_share": 0.320107254744028, "inflation_rate": 0.06724240158110262, "growth_rate": 0.02670241824800934, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.09394481982911196, "private_credit": 0.05388402291972333, "credit_real": 0.05388402291972333, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4293877378733608, "capital_asset": 4.2881632136200825, "debt_liability": 0.992915493351082, "firm_equity": 3.2952477202690007 }, { "step": 191.0, "time": 2.984375, "employment_rate": 0.8940926876274093, "unemployment_rate": 0.10590731237259066, "wage_share": 0.6927846355921121, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6920207482038875, "output_index": 1.0543765913024759, "price_index": 1.3842331914102826, "profit_share": 0.2825849619378151, "banker_share": 0.02463040247007276, "investment_share": 0.3298567014719588, "inflation_rate": 0.05422770847368974, "growth_rate": 0.029952233823986263, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.084179942297676, "private_credit": 0.04727173953414365, "credit_real": 0.04727173953414365, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4595030739269212, "capital_asset": 4.378509221780764, "debt_liability": 1.0100064092247818, "firm_equity": 3.368502812555982 } ], "final_state_at_year3": { "employment_rate": 0.893953777096617, "wage_share": 0.6917662020824574, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6918493921183019, "output_index": 1.0548718672254602, "price_index": 1.385397730184407 }, "native_full_metrics_canonical_json_sha256": "c110cb826f719edb7346de71722b0e3384f9bb47383e09477c252b59363c0803", "native_record_count": 192, "sfc_consistent": true }, { "arm_bp": 200, "scenario": { "name": "bracket1_dr0.722000_r0.035592_200bp", "type": "keen_monetary_minsky_v1", "time": { "dt": 0.015625, "steps": 192 }, "initial_state": { "employment_rate": 0.9555, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.722, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0 }, "params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "investment_floor": 0.03, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "nonlinear": 1.0, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "population_growth": 0.01, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "real_interest_rate": 0.035592, "rate_shock_size": 0.02, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0 }, "events": [] }, "scenario_canonical_json_sha256": "b52e3ae5c97655b73c38d0c20c26dbd79d0b36bc2858197e9bf0c307aaedb473", "effective_runtime_params": { "capital_output_ratio": 3.0, "depreciation_rate": 0.08, "productivity_growth": 0.03, "population_growth": 0.01, "real_interest_rate": 0.035592, "price_adjustment_time": 2.0, "kalecki_markup": 1.6, "phillips_floor": -0.04, "phillips_pivot_employment": 0.9, "investment_pivot_profit_rate": 0.11, "investment_pivot_share": 0.36, "investment_floor": 0.03, "pivot_slope": 2.0, "nonlinear": 1.0, "price_enabled": 1.0, "debt_enabled": 1.0, "government_enabled": 0.0, "financial_credit_fraction": 0.0, "rate_shock_size": 0.02, "rate_shock_start": 0.0, "rate_shock_duration": 1.0, "gov_response_slope": 0.5, "gov_employment_target": 0.92, "phillips_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_slope": 10.0, "invest_linear_crossing": 0.05, "crisis_debt_threshold": 2.5, "crisis_debt_slope": 2.0, "crisis_employment_level": 0.5, "crisis_employment_slope": 15.0 }, "samples": [ { "step": 0.0, "time": 0.0, "employment_rate": 0.9555, "unemployment_rate": 0.044499999999999984, "wage_share": 0.568303, "private_debt_ratio": 0.722, "output_index": 1.0, "price_index": 1.0, "profit_share": 0.391559576, "banker_share": 0.040137424, "investment_share": 0.4037007839363753, "inflation_rate": -0.0453576, "growth_rate": 0.05456692797879177, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.009209327978791773, "private_credit": 0.012141207936375298, "credit_real": 0.012141207936375298, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0, "capital_asset": 3.0, "debt_liability": 0.722, "firm_equity": 2.278 }, { "step": 16.0, "time": 0.25, "employment_rate": 0.9563738579416781, "unemployment_rate": 0.04362614205832194, "wage_share": 0.6616752611382102, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7220289914562765, "output_index": 1.0109739141903946, "price_index": 0.9978831951038423, "profit_share": 0.2981857031687525, "banker_share": 0.040139035693037325, "investment_share": 0.33945768050362524, "inflation_rate": 0.02934020891056821, "growth_rate": 0.03315256016787507, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.06249276907844328, "private_credit": 0.041271977334872756, "credit_real": 0.041271977334872756, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0088338796589487, "capital_asset": 3.026501638976846, "debt_liability": 0.7284073086770734, "firm_equity": 2.2980943302997727 }, { "step": 32.0, "time": 0.5, "employment_rate": 0.9526474108512207, "unemployment_rate": 0.04735258914877927, "wage_share": 0.747242503707566, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7207921284952394, "output_index": 1.017155588826201, "price_index": 1.0142427849017575, "profit_share": 0.2126872202851267, "banker_share": 0.04007027600730735, "investment_share": 0.2903682929055116, "inflation_rate": 0.09779400296605278, "growth_rate": 0.016789430968503855, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.11458343393455664, "private_credit": 0.07768107262038487, "credit_real": 0.07768107262038487, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0316427170894729, "capital_asset": 3.0949281512684186, "debt_liability": 0.7435999498975333, "firm_equity": 2.3513282013708854 }, { "step": 48.0, "time": 0.75, "employment_rate": 0.9459193412956394, "unemployment_rate": 0.05408065870436063, "wage_share": 0.8022979525075853, "private_debt_ratio": 0.719875381152989, "output_index": 1.0201223171035236, "price_index": 1.0457052314040163, "profit_share": 0.15768273530335775, "banker_share": 0.040019312189056966, "investment_share": 0.2629856743512962, "inflation_rate": 0.14183836200606825, "growth_rate": 0.007661891450432071, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1495002534565003, "private_credit": 0.10530293904793847, "credit_real": 0.10530293904793847, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.0667472436671415, "capital_asset": 3.2002417310014244, "debt_liability": 0.7679250786287839, "firm_equity": 2.4323166523726405 }, { "step": 64.0, "time": 1.0, "employment_rate": 0.9378256350366034, "unemployment_rate": 0.06217436496339657, "wage_share": 0.8237097963949703, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7195398665751046, "output_index": 1.0215583728518227, "price_index": 1.0863134753705836, "profit_share": 0.15068034067388855, "banker_share": 0.025609862931141123, "investment_share": 0.2597130029345762, "inflation_rate": 0.15896783711597628, "growth_rate": 0.006571000978192076, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.16553883809416836, "private_credit": 0.10903266226068767, "credit_real": 0.10903266226068767, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.109732626306582, "capital_asset": 3.3291978789197465, "debt_liability": 0.7984968658666785, "firm_equity": 2.530701013053068 }, { "step": 80.0, "time": 1.25, "employment_rate": 0.9300074901495154, "unemployment_rate": 0.06999250985048455, "wage_share": 0.8216548558798062, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7170716483957723, "output_index": 1.0232234367424358, "price_index": 1.130447975603497, "profit_share": 0.15282313001049141, "banker_share": 0.025522014109702326, "investment_share": 0.2607095554677387, "inflation_rate": 0.15732388470384506, "growth_rate": 0.0069031851559129, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.16422706985975796, "private_credit": 0.1078864254572473, "credit_real": 0.1078864254572473, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.1567008626555395, "capital_asset": 3.4701025879666183, "debt_liability": 0.8294373942852196, "firm_equity": 2.6406651936813987 }, { "step": 96.0, "time": 1.5, "employment_rate": 0.9225869614954124, "unemployment_rate": 0.07741303850458758, "wage_share": 0.8068883325145504, "private_debt_ratio": 0.714531441895583, "output_index": 1.0252606521005418, "price_index": 1.1742287889288856, "profit_share": 0.167680064405502, "banker_share": 0.02543160307994759, "investment_share": 0.26773903789217396, "inflation_rate": 0.1455106660116403, "growth_rate": 0.00924634596405799, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.1547570119756983, "private_credit": 0.10005897348667195, "credit_real": 0.10005897348667195, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2038905738524588, "capital_asset": 3.6116717215573764, "debt_liability": 0.8602176676192983, "firm_equity": 2.751454053938078 }, { "step": 112.0, "time": 1.75, "employment_rate": 0.9158929354715026, "unemployment_rate": 0.08410706452849737, "wage_share": 0.7864287652591814, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7118002114989272, "output_index": 1.028050932962982, "price_index": 1.215306717153895, "profit_share": 0.1882368416131488, "banker_share": 0.02533439312766982, "investment_share": 0.2778199403519247, "inflation_rate": 0.12914301220734514, "growth_rate": 0.012606646783974898, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.14174965899132003, "private_credit": 0.0895830987387759, "credit_real": 0.0895830987387759, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.2493972044062405, "capital_asset": 3.7481916132187214, "debt_liability": 0.8893211943425304, "firm_equity": 2.858870418876191 }, { "step": 128.0, "time": 2.0, "employment_rate": 0.9100681446034178, "unemployment_rate": 0.08993185539658222, "wage_share": 0.7643688875704561, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7088933524332504, "output_index": 1.0317792273697846, "price_index": 1.2524238155469165, "profit_share": 0.2104001802297397, "banker_share": 0.025230932199804247, "investment_share": 0.2891680924914437, "inflation_rate": 0.11149511005636492, "growth_rate": 0.016389364163814563, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.12788447422017948, "private_credit": 0.07876791226170402, "credit_real": 0.07876791226170402, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.292224876744515, "capital_asset": 3.876674630233545, "debt_liability": 0.916049624973063, "firm_equity": 2.960625005260482 }, { "step": 144.0, "time": 2.25, "employment_rate": 0.9051497359707115, "unemployment_rate": 0.09485026402928853, "wage_share": 0.7428257770922151, "private_debt_ratio": 0.705884202024367, "output_index": 1.036516550498918, "price_index": 1.2850285439988565, "profit_share": 0.23205039238933364, "banker_share": 0.025123830518451268, "investment_share": 0.30075508294748465, "inflation_rate": 0.09426062167377214, "growth_rate": 0.02025169431582821, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.11451231598960035, "private_credit": 0.06870469055815101, "credit_real": 0.06870469055815101, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.3319533537183417, "capital_asset": 3.995860061155025, "debt_liability": 0.940204830223151, "firm_equity": 3.055655230931874 }, { "step": 160.0, "time": 2.5, "employment_rate": 0.9011175939506427, "unemployment_rate": 0.09888240604935727, "wage_share": 0.7227795730302735, "private_debt_ratio": 0.7028561807887481, "output_index": 1.0422699723710656, "price_index": 1.3129967410647683, "profit_share": 0.25220436978309335, "banker_share": 0.025016057186633123, "investment_share": 0.3120063998357018, "inflation_rate": 0.07822365842421886, "growth_rate": 0.02400213327856726, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.10222579170278612, "private_credit": 0.059802030052608424, "credit_real": 0.059802030052608424, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.368497077032875, "capital_asset": 4.105491231098625, "debt_liability": 0.9618566289838918, "firm_equity": 3.1436346021147337 }, { "step": 176.0, "time": 2.75, "employment_rate": 0.897922230357036, "unemployment_rate": 0.102077769642964, "wage_share": 0.704605871520483, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6998813938613093, "output_index": 1.049011925405632, "price_index": 1.336451857458402, "profit_share": 0.2704839499092052, "banker_share": 0.02491017857031172, "investment_share": 0.322615134028137, "inflation_rate": 0.06368469721638648, "growth_rate": 0.027538378009379, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.09122307522576548, "private_credit": 0.052131184118931806, "credit_real": 0.052131184118931806, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4019539362043714, "capital_asset": 4.205861808613114, "debt_liability": 0.9812014750000646, "firm_equity": 3.2246603336130493 }, { "step": 191.0, "time": 2.984375, "employment_rate": 0.8956305180767415, "unemployment_rate": 0.10436948192325846, "wage_share": 0.6893344253114257, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6971894193918563, "output_index": 1.0561901084574736, "price_index": 1.354572859286824, "profit_share": 0.2858512088735793, "banker_share": 0.024814365814994948, "investment_share": 0.33184184176731635, "inflation_rate": 0.051467540249140575, "growth_rate": 0.030613947255772114, "nominal_growth_rate": 0.08208148750491269, "private_credit": 0.04599063289373706, "credit_real": 0.04599063289373706, "credit_financial": 0.0, "nominal_output": 1.4306864551637009, "capital_asset": 4.292059365491102, "debt_liability": 0.9974594590073736, "firm_equity": 3.294599906483729 } ], "final_state_at_year3": { "employment_rate": 0.8955005514738659, "wage_share": 0.6883760713131768, "private_debt_ratio": 0.6970141432702619, "output_index": 1.056697072082032, "price_index": 1.355654487864253 }, "native_full_metrics_canonical_json_sha256": "bbd1f9339f5929a98a5b58a94a4e94643f883792c851a9b6fda8ef56f8517f19", "native_record_count": 192, "sfc_consistent": true } ], "committed_effects_200bp": { "peak_additional_output_shortfall": { "value": 0.144455, "unit": "percent of paired baseline output", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "cumulative_output_shortfall_clipped": { "value": 0.049978, "unit": "percent of baseline output over the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "cumulative_output_difference_signed": { "value": 0.003147, "unit": "percent of baseline output over the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "note": "published beside the clipped measure because the clipped one alone hides offsets" }, "peak_additional_employment_shortfall": { "value": 0.136442, "unit": "percentage points of the labour-force fraction", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "persistence_output_gap_at_horizon": { "value": 0.171999, "unit": "signed percent of baseline output at the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "persistence_employment_gap_at_horizon": { "value": 0.153783, "unit": "signed percentage points at the horizon", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches" }, "absolute_baseline_output_at_horizon": { "value": 1.054377, "unit": "index", "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "note": "carried beside the gaps so a collapsing baseline cannot make relative resilience look healthy" }, "recovery": { "recovered_within_horizon": true, "first_sustained_return_year": 1.0, "conditional_on": "CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches", "tolerance_status": "PROPOSED IN SR-1 AND NOT IN FORCE - section 50 adopts no bound, so this is reported against a stated candidate tolerance (1.0% output, 0.5pp employment, sustained 2 quarters) rather than judged", "censoring_note": "'not recovered within the horizon' is CENSORED, not infinite, and must never be averaged or ranked as a number" } }, "effects_match_committed_artifact_exactly": true } ], "verification": { "native_runs": 8, "committed_200bp_effects_equal": true, "all_sfc_checks_pass": true }, "exporter": { "local_path": "outputs/macro-vulnerability-education-20260920/source/export-macro-evidence.py", "sha256": "ac2581cd1504c8392c0e171f2aaee7a6792b14bde90c19bd178c95fcc53709e1" } }