{
  "record_type": "ConditionalKeenFragilityEstimate",
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "estimate_definition_version": "full-grid-paired-shock-v1",
  "brand": "ForeGlass Engine",
  "title": "Conditional Keen-Minsky fragility estimates",
  "status": "conditional_assumed_state",
  "reference_status": "dated_reference_experiment",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-21T00:11:37.635435Z",
  "default_view": {
    "variants": "all",
    "shock_bp": 200,
    "preset_status": "illustrative existing shock, not a recommended or predicted event"
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "kind": "assumption_sensitivity",
    "confidence_level": null,
    "recession_probability": null,
    "calibration_status": "not_established",
    "interpretation": "The four states are not draws from a probability distribution."
  },
  "as_of": {
    "state_reference_quarter": "2025Q4",
    "wage_share_reference_year": 2023,
    "study_date": "2026-09-19",
    "current_state_estimate": false,
    "freshness_status": "Historical pinned inputs, not a current US reading. Export time is not data observation time.",
    "known_revision": "A later publisher comparison found the 2025Q4 Fed corporate debt observation changed by 7.2686%. The original input remains pinned; replacing it alone would mix vintages with the unchecked GDP denominator.",
    "newer_debt_work": "A separate accepted derivation constructs 2026Q2 corporate and business debt totals from one September11 release. It does not reconcile BIS coverage or replace this experiment's inputs."
  },
  "definition": {
    "question": "How much do output and employment deteriorate relative to the same assumed economy without a temporary real-rate shock?",
    "scope": "Deterministic paired-shock sensitivity in a reduced-form model; not an observed fragility index or a recession probability.",
    "arms_bp": [
      0,
      100,
      200
    ],
    "interpolation": "No interpolation between shock arms or starting states.",
    "pulse": {
      "start_years": 0.0,
      "end_years_exclusive": 1.0,
      "rate_type": "annual real borrowing rate on all modeled debt; not a maturity-specific refinancing rate"
    },
    "horizon_years": 3.0,
    "dt_years": 0.015625,
    "native_pre_step_records": 192,
    "exported_nodes": 193,
    "endpoint": "Final node is the actual native summary.final_state after192RK4 steps, appended to192pre-step state records.",
    "cumulative_integration": "Piecewise linear path interpolation; trapezoidal baseline and signed-gap integrals; exact positive triangle area within any gap sign-crossing interval. Divide by integrated baseline output, yielding percent of total output over horizon, not percent-years.",
    "baseline_return": "First node at/after pulse end with BOTH output and employment at/above their own baseline at all remaining sampled nodes. No tolerance, no permanent-recovery claim; endpoint-only return is distinguished from observed persistence.",
    "comparison": "Every arm uses its own variant's baseline. Across-variant ranges describe assumption sensitivity, never statistical uncertainty."
  },
  "path_units": {
    "time_years": "elapsed model years, no calendar-date projection",
    "output_index": "real output, initial=1",
    "employment_rate": "employment / labor force, raw fraction",
    "wage_share": "wage share of output, raw fraction",
    "private_debt_ratio": "debt stock / annual nominal output, raw ratio",
    "price_index": "price index, initial=1",
    "output_gap_pct": "signed shock-minus-own-baseline output, % of baseline",
    "employment_gap_pp": "signed shock-minus-own-baseline employment, percentage points of labor-force fraction"
  },
  "parameter_units": {
    "capital_output_ratio": "capital stock / annual output, years",
    "depreciation_rate": "annual decimal rate",
    "productivity_growth": "annual decimal rate",
    "population_growth": "annual decimal rate",
    "real_interest_rate": "annual real decimal rate",
    "price_adjustment_time": "years",
    "kalecki_markup": "dimensionless multiplier",
    "phillips_floor": "annual decimal wage-growth rate",
    "phillips_pivot_employment": "labor-force fraction",
    "investment_pivot_profit_rate": "annual profit / capital",
    "investment_pivot_share": "investment / output",
    "investment_floor": "investment / output",
    "pivot_slope": "shared numerical slope; wage growth per employment fraction or investment share per profit-rate unit",
    "nonlinear": "0/1 toggle",
    "price_enabled": "0/1 toggle",
    "debt_enabled": "0/1 toggle",
    "government_enabled": "0/1 toggle",
    "financial_credit_fraction": "fraction of positive gross credit",
    "rate_shock_size": "increment in annual real decimal rate; .02=200bp",
    "rate_shock_start": "model years",
    "rate_shock_duration": "years",
    "gov_response_slope": "government deficit/output per employment fraction",
    "gov_employment_target": "labor-force fraction",
    "phillips_linear_slope": "annual wage growth per employment fraction",
    "invest_linear_slope": "investment share per annual profit-rate unit",
    "invest_linear_crossing": "annual profit / capital",
    "crisis_debt_threshold": "debt stock / annual nominal output",
    "crisis_debt_slope": "diagnostic logit slope per debt-ratio unit",
    "crisis_employment_level": "labor-force fraction",
    "crisis_employment_slope": "diagnostic logit slope per employment fraction"
  },
  "input_status": {
    "employment_rate": {
      "value": 0.9555,
      "status": "Derived from 1 minus2025Q4 UNRATE mean/100; its mapping to the model is an assumption. Labor-force denominator, not total population."
    },
    "wage_share": {
      "value": 0.568303,
      "status": "Assumed mapping of annual2023 whole-economy PWT labor share to the model; not observed2025 corporate wages. Source tierT3; bytes pinned at use."
    },
    "debt_endpoints": {
      "D_A": 0.450043,
      "D_B": 0.722,
      "status": "Two differently defined source constructions, not interchangeable observations of one matched debt perimeter. Corporate/sectorN debt is scaled by economy-wide output, a modeling assumption."
    },
    "real_rates": {
      "R_LOW": 0.005958,
      "R_HIGH": 0.035592,
      "status": "Assumed pass-through of policy rate, or policy plus high-yield OAS, minus GDP-deflator inflation. Fisher approximation; no observed effective borrowing-rate bridge."
    },
    "normalizations": {
      "output_index": 1.0,
      "price_index": 1.0,
      "status": "Authored normalizations, not observed dollar or price levels."
    },
    "all_other_parameters": "Authored structural assumptions, switches or diagnostic defaults. Each arm carries every effective numeric value and parameter_units supplies its unit. No parameter was fitted by this export.",
    "time_and_shocks": "Existing authored numerical grid and rate pulses. No stochastic replicas or assigned probabilities."
  },
  "variants": [
    {
      "id": "D_A/R_LOW",
      "label": "D A/R LOW",
      "status": "One declared starting-state assumption; equal status with every other variant.",
      "debt_endpoint": "D_A",
      "rate_endpoint": "R_LOW",
      "initial_state": {
        "employment_rate": 0.9555,
        "wage_share": 0.568303,
        "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043,
        "output_index": 1.0,
        "price_index": 1.0
      },
      "assumptions": {
        "baseline_real_interest_rate": 0.005958,
        "baseline_real_interest_rate_unit": "annual decimal rate",
        "debt_ratio_definition": "Fed corporate debt / quarterly-SAAR economy-wide GDP",
        "debt_mapping_status": "Source-derived construction; unresolved population/instrument/valuation comparability. Neither endpoint is preferred or a confidence bound."
      },
      "baseline": {
        "path": [
          {
            "time_years": 0.0,
            "output_index": 1.0,
            "employment_rate": 0.9555,
            "wage_share": 0.568303,
            "private_debt_ratio": 0.450043,
            "price_index": 1.0
          },
          {
            "time_years": 0.015625,
            "output_index": 1.0009944419845933,
            "employment_rate": 0.955852594715722,
            "wage_share": 0.5738391720274785,
            "private_debt_ratio": 0.4499706971008051,
            "price_index": 0.9993259950436351
          },
          {
            "time_years": 0.03125,
            "output_index": 1.0019663701042718,
            "employment_rate": 0.9561828906920289,
            "wage_share": 0.579489668662318,
            "private_debt_ratio": 0.449894536549819,
            "price_index": 0.9987222727700363
          },
          {
            "time_years": 0.046875,
            "output_index": 1.00291551585921,
            "employment_rate": 0.9564906730089977,
            "wage_share": 0.5852508727132176,
            "private_debt_ratio": 0.4498151410285583,
            "price_index": 0.9981901107547386
          },
          {
            "time_years": 0.0625,
            "output_index": 1.0038416404025718,
            "employment_rate": 0.9567757555982644,
            "wage_share": 0.5911186505751306,
            "private_debt_ratio": 0.449733168355023,
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            "employment_rate": 0.9570379825841335,
            "wage_share": 0.5970883491423467,
            "private_debt_ratio": 0.4496493095209691,
            "price_index": 0.9973453917095031
          },
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            "time_years": 0.09375,
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    "The original2025Q4 Fed corporate debt figure was later revised by7.2686%; its paired GDP vintage was not jointly refreshed. This export preserves the original assumptions and discloses the revision.",
    "Debt populations, instruments and valuation bases are not fully reconciled. Later same-release Fed derivations do not resolve the BIS gap or authorize splicing newer values into this state.",
    "The old debt manifests' NSA description disagrees with publisher labels; the seasonal-treatment comparison remains unestablished. Stocks are never multiplied by four.",
    "Economy-wide GDP is not corporate-sector income. The model state is a declared mapping, not a measured internally matched corporate balance sheet.",
    "No state is preferred. Across-state ranges are ranges of assumptions, not confidence bands, probabilities or an average fragility score.",
    "Effects are relative to each state's own baseline; absolute baseline endpoints are retained. A rebound may make the signed cumulative or horizon difference favorable despite an earlier shortfall.",
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    "Model credit is an ODE-defined flow. Changes in observed debt stocks also include revaluation and other volume changes and are not automatically comparable credit flows.",
    "No raw source-series rows are redistributed. Source-license fields are unverified metadata, with the ICE conflict identified explicitly; reproduction of source data may require separate permission."
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}