{ "record_type": "HistoricalObservedKeenContext", "schema_version": "1.0", "status": "observed_context_from_retained_vintages", "period": { "start": "2000Q1", "end": "2025Q4", "frequency": "quarterly", "row_count": 104 }, "last_valid_quarter": { "real_gdp_index": "2025Q4", "labor_force_employment_pct": "2025Q3" }, "scenario_calendar": { "anchor_date": "2026-01-01", "horizon_date": "2029-01-01", "status": "illustrative_calendar_placement", "meaning": "An illustrative shock placement after the 2025Q4 reference period. These dates do not calibrate or date-stamp a forecast. The existing model retains elapsed years and all its original numbers." }, "series_metadata": { "real_gdp_index": { "label": "Observed real GDP", "unit": "index, 2025Q4 = 100", "formula": "100 * GDPC1[quarter] / GDPC1[2025Q4]", "reference_quarter": "2025Q4", "source_series": "GDPC1", "source_unit": "Billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "interpretation": "Quarterly real output level; not output growth or a percent shortfall. Rebased solely to make historical scale understandable." }, "labor_force_employment_pct": { "label": "Observed employed share of the labor force", "unit": "% of civilian labor force", "formula": "100 - mean(UNRATE for all three months of the quarter)", "source_series": "UNRATE", "required_months": 3, "interpretation": "An average of monthly employed shares. It is not employment divided by total population, and not a quarter-wide pooled ratio.", "missing_policy": "Null unless all three monthly observations are present. Never fill missing observations, never convert missing to zero, never bridge a missing quarter in the chart." } }, "model_initial_employment_mapping": { "value_pct": 95.55, "state_reference_quarter": "2025Q4", "available_months": [ "2025-11-01", "2025-12-01" ], "missing_months": [ "2025-10-01" ], "formula": "100 - mean(4.5, 4.4)", "status": "existing_assumed_partial_quarter_mapping", "meaning": "The existing model used only the two available November and December unemployment values. Its 95.55% starting assumption is not a complete-quarter observed employment reading. No model value is changed by this context export." }, "caveats": [ "Historical context and simulated shock shortfalls are different measurements. Do not connect them into one continuous line or share a vertical scale.", "No observed pre-shock counterfactual gap exists. The hypothetical shock effect cannot be backfilled as a measured zero before the illustrative start.", "Dates on source rows identify observation periods. Retained vintages and retrieval times identify later data snapshots; these rows are not an archive of what was known in each historical quarter.", "2025Q4 employment is unavailable under the complete-quarter rule because the October 2025 observation is permanently missing. The retained source manifest reports that the household survey was not conducted; do not interpolate.", "Calendar placement is illustrative, not empirical calibration, an actual historical shock, or a current forecast. No historical fragility estimate is calculated here." ], "provenance": { "sources": [ { "series_id": "GDPC1", "source_path": "data/observations/fred/GDPC1.2026-08-05.csv", "sha256": "f7cfe97b773eef3bd354aa722fd632bcae10b30f43e5aefcc3de89b5e251c346", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/GDPC1.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "090fbe7d950cc434e4c5a794e5c699a3fd5249a714f7c695044b85296ffebdc2", "matches_committed_bytes": true, "retained_vintage": "2026-08-05", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T09:26:35Z", "retained_observation_range": { "end": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01" }, "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1", "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "known_gaps": [] }, { "series_id": "UNRATE", "source_path": "data/observations/fred/UNRATE.2026-08-04.csv", "sha256": "0c99be07bd92f467672c4f0c5fd160b24fbb0b587ca1612867468a07f28a555f", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/UNRATE.2026-08-04.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "546bfda698055d9e7a81a4d5232337149c21a73f53fb6095b94b6ef0af57db6b", "matches_committed_bytes": true, "retained_vintage": "2026-08-04", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T17:45:04Z", "retained_observation_range": { "end": "2026-06-01", "start": "1948-01-01" }, "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.", "recorded_license": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "known_gaps": [ { "end": "2025-10-31", "note": "The October 2025 CPS household survey was never conducted; the Oct-2025 rate was never produced (blank value in the committed CSV). Do not interpolate across it.", "reason": "government_shutdown", "start": "2025-10-01", "status": "permanent" } ] } ], "input_refresh": "None; retained committed source bytes only.", "definitions": [ { "title": "BEA real GDP series, via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1" }, { "title": "BLS Current Population Survey concepts and definitions", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm" } ] }, "rows": [ { "quarter": "2000Q1", "period_start": "2000-01-01", "period_end": "2000-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 57.69160211972615, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.96666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2000Q2", "period_start": "2000-04-01", "period_end": "2000-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 58.742332238335216, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.06666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2000Q3", "period_start": "2000-07-01", "period_end": "2000-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 58.80220981687163, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.0, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2000Q4", "period_start": "2000-10-01", "period_end": "2000-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 59.15328182049123, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.1, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2001Q1", "period_start": "2001-01-01", "period_end": "2001-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 58.95937806800362, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.76666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2001Q2", "period_start": "2001-04-01", "period_end": "2001-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 59.32758111169184, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.6, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2001Q3", "period_start": "2001-07-01", "period_end": "2001-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 59.08989156812369, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.16666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2001Q4", "period_start": "2001-10-01", "period_end": "2001-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 59.252256082319455, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.5, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2002Q1", "period_start": "2002-01-01", "period_end": "2002-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 59.74781745519543, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.3, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2002Q2", "period_start": "2002-04-01", "period_end": "2002-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 60.113896266543186, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.16666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2002Q3", "period_start": "2002-07-01", "period_end": "2002-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 60.35826612590612, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.26666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2002Q4", "period_start": "2002-10-01", "period_end": "2002-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 60.43287199247049, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.13333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2003Q1", "period_start": "2003-01-01", "period_end": "2003-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 60.75113686961066, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.13333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2003Q2", "period_start": "2003-04-01", "period_end": "2003-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 61.28916210424377, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.86666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2003Q3", "period_start": "2003-07-01", "period_end": "2003-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 62.30852342198948, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.86666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2003Q4", "period_start": "2003-10-01", "period_end": "2003-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 63.031751786236214, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.16666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2004Q1", "period_start": "2004-01-01", "period_end": "2004-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 63.388922124187445, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.3, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2004Q2", "period_start": "2004-04-01", "period_end": "2004-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 63.88015604918392, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.4, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2004Q3", "period_start": "2004-07-01", "period_end": "2004-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 64.48611930561798, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.56666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2004Q4", "period_start": "2004-10-01", "period_end": "2004-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 65.14401193660609, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.56666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2005Q1", "period_start": "2005-01-01", "period_end": "2005-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 65.86669573248375, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.7, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2005Q2", "period_start": "2005-04-01", "period_end": "2005-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 66.19117118323774, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.9, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2005Q3", "period_start": "2005-07-01", "period_end": "2005-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 66.70998687257669, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.03333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2005Q4", "period_start": "2005-10-01", "period_end": "2005-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 67.08057188325336, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.03333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2006Q1", "period_start": "2006-01-01", "period_end": "2006-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 67.98306300917922, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.26666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2006Q2", "period_start": "2006-04-01", "period_end": "2006-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 68.15897106342439, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.36666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2006Q3", "period_start": "2006-07-01", "period_end": "2006-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 68.2611794793835, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.36666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2006Q4", "period_start": "2006-10-01", "period_end": "2006-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 68.84785005031438, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.56666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2007Q1", "period_start": "2007-01-01", "period_end": "2007-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 69.05496893902576, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.5, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2007Q2", "period_start": "2007-04-01", "period_end": "2007-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 69.47742096909974, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.5, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2007Q3", "period_start": "2007-07-01", "period_end": "2007-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 69.87762883625032, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.33333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2007Q4", "period_start": "2007-10-01", "period_end": "2007-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 70.31662576791933, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.2, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2008Q1", "period_start": "2008-01-01", "period_end": "2008-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 70.01653949748146, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.0, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2008Q2", "period_start": "2008-04-01", "period_end": "2008-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 70.43343776159288, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.66666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2008Q3", "period_start": "2008-07-01", "period_end": "2008-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 70.06348045949431, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.0, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2008Q4", "period_start": "2008-10-01", "period_end": "2008-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 68.52977223864448, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.13333333333334, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2009Q1", "period_start": "2009-01-01", "period_end": "2009-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 67.75204546738495, "labor_force_employment_pct": 91.73333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2009Q2", "period_start": "2009-04-01", "period_end": "2009-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 67.63100579408274, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.7, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2009Q3", "period_start": "2009-07-01", "period_end": "2009-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 67.86852074321195, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.36666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2009Q4", "period_start": "2009-10-01", "period_end": "2009-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 68.60212084853397, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.06666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2010Q1", "period_start": "2010-01-01", "period_end": "2010-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 68.93449877615534, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.16666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2010Q2", "period_start": "2010-04-01", "period_end": "2010-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 69.60149941704164, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.36666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2010Q3", "period_start": "2010-07-01", "period_end": "2010-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 70.1381860943095, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.53333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2010Q4", "period_start": "2010-10-01", "period_end": "2010-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 70.50648890624858, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.5, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2011Q1", "period_start": "2011-01-01", "period_end": "2011-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 70.33924406178333, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.96666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2011Q2", "period_start": "2011-04-01", "period_end": "2011-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 70.81514693223646, "labor_force_employment_pct": 90.93333333333334, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2011Q3", "period_start": "2011-07-01", "period_end": "2011-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 70.79934613551214, "labor_force_employment_pct": 91.0, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2011Q4", "period_start": "2011-10-01", "period_end": "2011-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 71.59445752447782, "labor_force_employment_pct": 91.36666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2012Q1", "period_start": "2012-01-01", "period_end": "2012-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 72.1948420728866, "labor_force_employment_pct": 91.73333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2012Q2", "period_start": "2012-04-01", "period_end": "2012-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 72.51707273799707, "labor_force_employment_pct": 91.8, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2012Q3", "period_start": "2012-07-01", "period_end": "2012-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 72.62151762557883, "labor_force_employment_pct": 91.96666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2012Q4", "period_start": "2012-10-01", "period_end": "2012-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 72.70549755071022, "labor_force_employment_pct": 92.2, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2013Q1", "period_start": "2013-01-01", "period_end": "2013-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 73.42278139001202, "labor_force_employment_pct": 92.26666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2013Q2", "period_start": "2013-04-01", "period_end": "2013-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 73.61928743104194, "labor_force_employment_pct": 92.46666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2013Q3", "period_start": "2013-07-01", "period_end": "2013-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 74.24607730983558, "labor_force_employment_pct": 92.76666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2013Q4", "period_start": "2013-10-01", "period_end": "2013-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 74.89331136602732, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.06666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2014Q1", "period_start": "2014-01-01", "period_end": "2014-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 74.63485755525633, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.33333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2014Q2", "period_start": "2014-04-01", "period_end": "2014-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 75.59902208823347, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.8, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2014Q3", "period_start": "2014-07-01", "period_end": "2014-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 76.51784610822136, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.93333333333334, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2014Q4", "period_start": "2014-10-01", "period_end": "2014-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 76.90482221110638, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.3, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2015Q1", "period_start": "2015-01-01", "period_end": "2015-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 77.597338582141, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.46666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2015Q2", "period_start": "2015-04-01", "period_end": "2015-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 78.07798044450828, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.56666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2015Q3", "period_start": "2015-07-01", "period_end": "2015-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 78.39048370516338, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.9, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2015Q4", "period_start": "2015-10-01", "period_end": "2015-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 78.53509778473328, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.96666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2016Q1", "period_start": "2016-01-01", "period_end": "2016-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 78.99022391695223, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.1, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2016Q2", "period_start": "2016-04-01", "period_end": "2016-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 79.24388053766275, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.06666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2016Q3", "period_start": "2016-07-01", "period_end": "2016-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 79.80602890394307, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.1, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2016Q4", "period_start": "2016-10-01", "period_end": "2016-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 80.24839301407742, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.23333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2017Q1", "period_start": "2017-01-01", "period_end": "2017-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 80.6391145833788, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.43333333333334, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2017Q2", "period_start": "2017-04-01", "period_end": "2017-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 81.09059086042177, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.63333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2017Q3", "period_start": "2017-07-01", "period_end": "2017-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 81.73000973696557, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.66666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2017Q4", "period_start": "2017-10-01", "period_end": "2017-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 82.65114505476424, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.83333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2018Q1", "period_start": "2018-01-01", "period_end": "2018-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 83.3234375699547, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.96666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2018Q2", "period_start": "2018-04-01", "period_end": "2018-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 83.76573932493226, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.06666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2018Q3", "period_start": "2018-07-01", "period_end": "2018-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 84.28818408439496, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.23333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2018Q4", "period_start": "2018-10-01", "period_end": "2018-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 84.40757342454812, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.16666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2019Q1", "period_start": "2019-01-01", "period_end": "2019-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 84.93454516839196, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.13333333333334, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2019Q2", "period_start": "2019-04-01", "period_end": "2019-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 85.64387248969052, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.36666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2019Q3", "period_start": "2019-07-01", "period_end": "2019-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 86.64590738787639, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.4, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2019Q4", "period_start": "2019-10-01", "period_end": "2019-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 87.23672665523738, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.4, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2020Q1", "period_start": "2020-01-01", "period_end": "2020-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 86.08841071629072, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.16666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2020Q2", "period_start": "2020-04-01", "period_end": "2020-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 79.3074121283856, "labor_force_employment_pct": 87.0, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2020Q3", "period_start": "2020-07-01", "period_end": "2020-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 85.46347486415826, "labor_force_employment_pct": 91.2, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2020Q4", "period_start": "2020-10-01", "period_end": "2020-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 86.43221626564196, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.23333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2021Q1", "period_start": "2021-01-01", "period_end": "2021-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 87.63865136770424, "labor_force_employment_pct": 93.76666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2021Q2", "period_start": "2021-04-01", "period_end": "2021-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 89.13016593247626, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.06666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2021Q3", "period_start": "2021-07-01", "period_end": "2021-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 89.86553692425042, "labor_force_employment_pct": 94.93333333333334, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2021Q4", "period_start": "2021-10-01", "period_end": "2021-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 91.40740951362605, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.83333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2022Q1", "period_start": "2022-01-01", "period_end": "2022-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 91.174504689087, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.13333333333334, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2022Q2", "period_start": "2022-04-01", "period_end": "2022-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 91.31723564292261, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.36666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2022Q3", "period_start": "2022-07-01", "period_end": "2022-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 91.97645436024462, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.46666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2022Q4", "period_start": "2022-10-01", "period_end": "2022-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 92.61131299632366, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.43333333333334, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2023Q1", "period_start": "2023-01-01", "period_end": "2023-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 93.2816808156753, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.46666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2023Q2", "period_start": "2023-04-01", "period_end": "2023-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 93.86737033213973, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.46666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2023Q3", "period_start": "2023-07-01", "period_end": "2023-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 94.95022998452471, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.36666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2023Q4", "period_start": "2023-10-01", "period_end": "2023-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 95.75166418638638, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.2, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2024Q1", "period_start": "2024-01-01", "period_end": "2024-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 95.952609914578, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.16666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2024Q2", "period_start": "2024-04-01", "period_end": "2024-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 96.80225712365058, "labor_force_employment_pct": 96.03333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2024Q3", "period_start": "2024-07-01", "period_end": "2024-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 97.60066086489346, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.83333333333333, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2024Q4", "period_start": "2024-10-01", "period_end": "2024-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 98.0495015973105, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.86666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2025Q1", "period_start": "2025-01-01", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "real_gdp_index": 97.89015507270217, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.86666666666666, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2025Q2", "period_start": "2025-04-01", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "real_gdp_index": 98.81619566283304, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.8, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2025Q3", "period_start": "2025-07-01", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "real_gdp_index": 99.8798000428089, "labor_force_employment_pct": 95.66666666666667, "employment_months_available": 3, "employment_missing_months": [] }, { "quarter": "2025Q4", "period_start": "2025-10-01", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "real_gdp_index": 100.0, "labor_force_employment_pct": null, "employment_months_available": 2, "employment_missing_months": [ "2025-10-01" ] } ], "gdp_level_history": { "metadata": { "source_series": "GDPC1", "source_vintage": "2026-08-05", "source_retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T09:26:35Z", "source_sha256": "f7cfe97b773eef3bd354aa722fd632bcae10b30f43e5aefcc3de89b5e251c346", "source_unit": "Billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "unit": "Trillions of chained 2017 US dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "frequency": "quarterly", "level_conversion": "GDPC1 / 1000", "reference_period": "2025Q4", "reference_real_gdp_trillions": 24.055749, "last_actual_quarter": "2026Q2", "display_start_quarter": "2000Q1", "display_end_quarter": "2026Q2", "row_count": 106, "mapping": "Y_real_trillions(t) = reference_real_gdp_trillions * native_output_index(t) / native_output_index(0)", "status": "illustrative_level_scaling_not_calibration", "reference_level_meaning": "The annualized real-output flow reported for 2025Q4 is assigned as the assumed model starting scale at 1 January 2026. It is not an observed instantaneous output on that date.", "inflation_treatment": "GDPC1 is already adjusted for price changes. The native output_index integrates real growth. Do not deflate either again or multiply native output by its price_index for this chart.", "cadence_meaning": "Historical points are quarter-level annualized output flows. Native scenario nodes are model output rates on the solver grid; they are not measured daily GDP or official forecasts of quarterly averages.", "post_anchor_observations": "All retained quarterly observations after the illustrative model start remain visible as observed data. These later-vintage actuals do not make the scenario an ex-ante forecast or validate it.", "missing_policy": "Keep missing quarters null. Do not fill, turn missing into zero, or bridge missing quarters." }, "rows": [ { "quarter": "2000Q1", "period_start": "2000-01-01", "period_end": "2000-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 13.878147 }, { "quarter": "2000Q2", "period_start": "2000-04-01", "period_end": "2000-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.130908 }, { "quarter": "2000Q3", "period_start": "2000-07-01", "period_end": "2000-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.145312 }, { "quarter": "2000Q4", "period_start": "2000-10-01", "period_end": "2000-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.229764999999999 }, { "quarter": "2001Q1", "period_start": "2001-01-01", "period_end": "2001-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.18312 }, { "quarter": "2001Q2", "period_start": "2001-04-01", "period_end": "2001-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.271694 }, { "quarter": "2001Q3", "period_start": "2001-07-01", "period_end": "2001-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.214516 }, { "quarter": "2001Q4", "period_start": "2001-10-01", "period_end": "2001-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.253574 }, { "quarter": "2002Q1", "period_start": "2002-01-01", "period_end": "2002-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.372785 }, { "quarter": "2002Q2", "period_start": "2002-04-01", "period_end": "2002-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.460848 }, { "quarter": "2002Q3", "period_start": "2002-07-01", "period_end": "2002-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.519633 }, { "quarter": "2002Q4", "period_start": "2002-10-01", "period_end": "2002-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.53758 }, { "quarter": "2003Q1", "period_start": "2003-01-01", "period_end": "2003-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.614141 }, { "quarter": "2003Q2", "period_start": "2003-04-01", "period_end": "2003-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.743566999999999 }, { "quarter": "2003Q3", "period_start": "2003-07-01", "period_end": "2003-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 14.988781999999999 }, { "quarter": "2003Q4", "period_start": "2003-10-01", "period_end": "2003-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 15.16276 }, { "quarter": "2004Q1", "period_start": "2004-01-01", "period_end": "2004-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 15.24868 }, { "quarter": "2004Q2", "period_start": "2004-04-01", "period_end": "2004-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 15.366850000000001 }, { "quarter": "2004Q3", "period_start": "2004-07-01", "period_end": "2004-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 15.512619 }, { "quarter": "2004Q4", "period_start": "2004-10-01", "period_end": "2004-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 15.670879999999999 }, { "quarter": "2005Q1", "period_start": "2005-01-01", "period_end": "2005-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 15.844727 }, { "quarter": "2005Q2", "period_start": "2005-04-01", "period_end": "2005-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 15.922782 }, { "quarter": "2005Q3", "period_start": "2005-07-01", "period_end": "2005-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.047587 }, { "quarter": "2005Q4", "period_start": "2005-10-01", "period_end": "2005-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.136734 }, { "quarter": "2006Q1", "period_start": "2006-01-01", "period_end": "2006-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.353835 }, { "quarter": "2006Q2", "period_start": "2006-04-01", "period_end": "2006-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.396151000000003 }, { "quarter": "2006Q3", "period_start": "2006-07-01", "period_end": "2006-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.420738 }, { "quarter": "2006Q4", "period_start": "2006-10-01", "period_end": "2006-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.561866000000002 }, { "quarter": "2007Q1", "period_start": "2007-01-01", "period_end": "2007-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.61169 }, { "quarter": "2007Q2", "period_start": "2007-04-01", "period_end": "2007-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.713313999999997 }, { "quarter": "2007Q3", "period_start": "2007-07-01", "period_end": "2007-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.809587 }, { "quarter": "2007Q4", "period_start": "2007-10-01", "period_end": "2007-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.915191 }, { "quarter": "2008Q1", "period_start": "2008-01-01", "period_end": "2008-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.843003 }, { "quarter": "2008Q2", "period_start": "2008-04-01", "period_end": "2008-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.943291000000002 }, { "quarter": "2008Q3", "period_start": "2008-07-01", "period_end": "2008-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.854294999999997 }, { "quarter": "2008Q4", "period_start": "2008-10-01", "period_end": "2008-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.485349999999997 }, { "quarter": "2009Q1", "period_start": "2009-01-01", "period_end": "2009-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.298262 }, { "quarter": "2009Q2", "period_start": "2009-04-01", "period_end": "2009-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.269145 }, { "quarter": "2009Q3", "period_start": "2009-07-01", "period_end": "2009-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.326281 }, { "quarter": "2009Q4", "period_start": "2009-10-01", "period_end": "2009-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.502754 }, { "quarter": "2010Q1", "period_start": "2010-01-01", "period_end": "2010-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.58271 }, { "quarter": "2010Q2", "period_start": "2010-04-01", "period_end": "2010-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.743162 }, { "quarter": "2010Q3", "period_start": "2010-07-01", "period_end": "2010-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.872266 }, { "quarter": "2010Q4", "period_start": "2010-10-01", "period_end": "2010-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.960864 }, { "quarter": "2011Q1", "period_start": "2011-01-01", "period_end": "2011-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 16.920632 }, { "quarter": "2011Q2", "period_start": "2011-04-01", "period_end": "2011-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.035114 }, { "quarter": "2011Q3", "period_start": "2011-07-01", "period_end": "2011-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.031312999999997 }, { "quarter": "2011Q4", "period_start": "2011-10-01", "period_end": "2011-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.222583 }, { "quarter": "2012Q1", "period_start": "2012-01-01", "period_end": "2012-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.367009999999997 }, { "quarter": "2012Q2", "period_start": "2012-04-01", "period_end": "2012-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.444525000000002 }, { "quarter": "2012Q3", "period_start": "2012-07-01", "period_end": "2012-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.46965 }, { "quarter": "2012Q4", "period_start": "2012-10-01", "period_end": "2012-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.489852 }, { "quarter": "2013Q1", "period_start": "2013-01-01", "period_end": "2013-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.6624 }, { "quarter": "2013Q2", "period_start": "2013-04-01", "period_end": "2013-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.709671 }, { "quarter": "2013Q3", "period_start": "2013-07-01", "period_end": "2013-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.86045 }, { "quarter": "2013Q4", "period_start": "2013-10-01", "period_end": "2013-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 18.016147 }, { "quarter": "2014Q1", "period_start": "2014-01-01", "period_end": "2014-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 17.953974 }, { "quarter": "2014Q2", "period_start": "2014-04-01", "period_end": "2014-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 18.185911 }, { "quarter": "2014Q3", "period_start": "2014-07-01", "period_end": "2014-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 18.406941 }, { "quarter": "2014Q4", "period_start": "2014-10-01", "period_end": "2014-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 18.500031 }, { "quarter": "2015Q1", "period_start": "2015-01-01", "period_end": "2015-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 18.666621 }, { "quarter": "2015Q2", "period_start": "2015-04-01", "period_end": "2015-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 18.782242999999998 }, { "quarter": "2015Q3", "period_start": "2015-07-01", "period_end": "2015-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 18.857418000000003 }, { "quarter": "2015Q4", "period_start": "2015-10-01", "period_end": "2015-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 18.892205999999998 }, { "quarter": "2016Q1", "period_start": "2016-01-01", "period_end": "2016-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.00169 }, { "quarter": "2016Q2", "period_start": "2016-04-01", "period_end": "2016-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.062708999999998 }, { "quarter": "2016Q3", "period_start": "2016-07-01", "period_end": "2016-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.197937999999997 }, { "quarter": "2016Q4", "period_start": "2016-10-01", "period_end": "2016-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.304351999999998 }, { "quarter": "2017Q1", "period_start": "2017-01-01", "period_end": "2017-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.398343 }, { "quarter": "2017Q2", "period_start": "2017-04-01", "period_end": "2017-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.506949 }, { "quarter": "2017Q3", "period_start": "2017-07-01", "period_end": "2017-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.660766 }, { "quarter": "2017Q4", "period_start": "2017-10-01", "period_end": "2017-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.882351999999997 }, { "quarter": "2018Q1", "period_start": "2018-01-01", "period_end": "2018-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.044077 }, { "quarter": "2018Q2", "period_start": "2018-04-01", "period_end": "2018-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.150475999999998 }, { "quarter": "2018Q3", "period_start": "2018-07-01", "period_end": "2018-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.276154 }, { "quarter": "2018Q4", "period_start": "2018-10-01", "period_end": "2018-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.304873999999998 }, { "quarter": "2019Q1", "period_start": "2019-01-01", "period_end": "2019-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.431641 }, { "quarter": "2019Q2", "period_start": "2019-04-01", "period_end": "2019-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.602275000000002 }, { "quarter": "2019Q3", "period_start": "2019-07-01", "period_end": "2019-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.843322 }, { "quarter": "2019Q4", "period_start": "2019-10-01", "period_end": "2019-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.985448 }, { "quarter": "2020Q1", "period_start": "2020-01-01", "period_end": "2020-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.709212 }, { "quarter": "2020Q2", "period_start": "2020-04-01", "period_end": "2020-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 19.077992 }, { "quarter": "2020Q3", "period_start": "2020-07-01", "period_end": "2020-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.558879 }, { "quarter": "2020Q4", "period_start": "2020-10-01", "period_end": "2020-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 20.791917 }, { "quarter": "2021Q1", "period_start": "2021-01-01", "period_end": "2021-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 21.082134 }, { "quarter": "2021Q2", "period_start": "2021-04-01", "period_end": "2021-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 21.440929 }, { "quarter": "2021Q3", "period_start": "2021-07-01", "period_end": "2021-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 21.617828000000003 }, { "quarter": "2021Q4", "period_start": "2021-10-01", "period_end": "2021-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 21.988737 }, { "quarter": "2022Q1", "period_start": "2022-01-01", "period_end": "2022-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 21.93271 }, { "quarter": "2022Q2", "period_start": "2022-04-01", "period_end": "2022-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 21.967045 }, { "quarter": "2022Q3", "period_start": "2022-07-01", "period_end": "2022-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 22.125625 }, { "quarter": "2022Q4", "period_start": "2022-10-01", "period_end": "2022-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 22.278345 }, { "quarter": "2023Q1", "period_start": "2023-01-01", "period_end": "2023-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 22.439607 }, { "quarter": "2023Q2", "period_start": "2023-04-01", "period_end": "2023-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 22.580499 }, { "quarter": "2023Q3", "period_start": "2023-07-01", "period_end": "2023-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 22.840989 }, { "quarter": "2023Q4", "period_start": "2023-10-01", "period_end": "2023-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 23.03378 }, { "quarter": "2024Q1", "period_start": "2024-01-01", "period_end": "2024-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 23.082119 }, { "quarter": "2024Q2", "period_start": "2024-04-01", "period_end": "2024-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 23.286508 }, { "quarter": "2024Q3", "period_start": "2024-07-01", "period_end": "2024-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 23.47857 }, { "quarter": "2024Q4", "period_start": "2024-10-01", "period_end": "2024-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 23.586542 }, { "quarter": "2025Q1", "period_start": "2025-01-01", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 23.548209999999997 }, { "quarter": "2025Q2", "period_start": "2025-04-01", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 23.770975999999997 }, { "quarter": "2025Q3", "period_start": "2025-07-01", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 24.026833999999997 }, { "quarter": "2025Q4", "period_start": "2025-10-01", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 24.055749 }, { "quarter": "2026Q1", "period_start": "2026-01-01", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "real_gdp_trillions": 24.180419 }, { "quarter": "2026Q2", "period_start": "2026-04-01", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "real_gdp_trillions": 24.270598999999997 } ] } }