{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "record_type": "ConditionalMarketFragilityScenarios",
  "status": "illustrative_conditional_paths",
  "geography": "United States",
  "runtime": "macro_fragility_leadtime_v1",
  "metric": "fragility_ema",
  "units": "index points, 0-1; not a probability",
  "is_probability": false,
  "sealed_prediction": false,
  "horizon_quarters": [
    1,
    2,
    4
  ],
  "origin": {
    "reading_date": "2026-09-20",
    "qtd_through": "2026-09-18",
    "provisional_quarter": "2026Q3",
    "quarter_end": "2026-09-30",
    "reading": 0.289582,
    "provisional": true,
    "public_snapshot_sha256": "5acb6203dbbce3b46d52fd57b80c2343d44762ed2c63b7a402428740d63c5103",
    "identity_sha256": "6ae247991d9d2806ac77b4705d1ab3f228669c9ea90218dfc55d8dcd3894a787",
    "quarterly_history_sha256": "457deb8f43a5d2300a733935c9060b13aa8209784bcb68ac58b48b4d923cfb9e"
  },
  "display_binding": {
    "require": "Exact public origin date, through-date, quarter, provisional flag, index value and every quarterly history point must match the reading displayed above. If any differ, hide these paths and show that an updated scenario snapshot is required.",
    "identity": {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "reading": 0.289582,
      "provisional_quarter": "2026Q3",
      "qtd_through": "2026-09-18",
      "provisional": true,
      "quarterly_history": [
        {
          "period": "1997Q1",
          "value": 0.099499
        },
        {
          "period": "1997Q2",
          "value": 0.112853
        },
        {
          "period": "1997Q3",
          "value": 0.142042
        },
        {
          "period": "1997Q4",
          "value": 0.199733
        },
        {
          "period": "1998Q1",
          "value": 0.242168
        },
        {
          "period": "1998Q2",
          "value": 0.282635
        },
        {
          "period": "1998Q3",
          "value": 0.334709
        },
        {
          "period": "1998Q4",
          "value": 0.399936
        },
        {
          "period": "1999Q1",
          "value": 0.454797
        },
        {
          "period": "1999Q2",
          "value": 0.460858
        },
        {
          "period": "1999Q3",
          "value": 0.461947
        },
        {
          "period": "1999Q4",
          "value": 0.446497
        },
        {
          "period": "2000Q1",
          "value": 0.449076
        },
        {
          "period": "2000Q2",
          "value": 0.546827
        },
        {
          "period": "2000Q3",
          "value": 0.578677
        },
        {
          "period": "2000Q4",
          "value": 0.628568
        },
        {
          "period": "2001Q1",
          "value": 0.610196
        },
        {
          "period": "2001Q2",
          "value": 0.591077
        },
        {
          "period": "2001Q3",
          "value": 0.596832
        },
        {
          "period": "2001Q4",
          "value": 0.609893
        },
        {
          "period": "2002Q1",
          "value": 0.527047
        },
        {
          "period": "2002Q2",
          "value": 0.381935
        },
        {
          "period": "2002Q3",
          "value": 0.369773
        },
        {
          "period": "2002Q4",
          "value": 0.364862
        },
        {
          "period": "2003Q1",
          "value": 0.316487
        },
        {
          "period": "2003Q2",
          "value": 0.246029
        },
        {
          "period": "2003Q3",
          "value": 0.187505
        },
        {
          "period": "2003Q4",
          "value": 0.140678
        },
        {
          "period": "2004Q1",
          "value": 0.132136
        },
        {
          "period": "2004Q2",
          "value": 0.115034
        },
        {
          "period": "2004Q3",
          "value": 0.1093
        },
        {
          "period": "2004Q4",
          "value": 0.096713
        },
        {
          "period": "2005Q1",
          "value": 0.073912
        },
        {
          "period": "2005Q2",
          "value": 0.063159
        },
        {
          "period": "2005Q3",
          "value": 0.099625
        },
        {
          "period": "2005Q4",
          "value": 0.144112
        },
        {
          "period": "2006Q1",
          "value": 0.189942
        },
        {
          "period": "2006Q2",
          "value": 0.212856
        },
        {
          "period": "2006Q3",
          "value": 0.225714
        },
        {
          "period": "2006Q4",
          "value": 0.24462
        },
        {
          "period": "2007Q1",
          "value": 0.257406
        },
        {
          "period": "2007Q2",
          "value": 0.2638
        },
        {
          "period": "2007Q3",
          "value": 0.292506
        },
        {
          "period": "2007Q4",
          "value": 0.328791
        },
        {
          "period": "2008Q1",
          "value": 0.380979
        },
        {
          "period": "2008Q2",
          "value": 0.387757
        },
        {
          "period": "2008Q3",
          "value": 0.396824
        },
        {
          "period": "2008Q4",
          "value": 0.450082
        },
        {
          "period": "2009Q1",
          "value": 0.450041
        },
        {
          "period": "2009Q2",
          "value": 0.429068
        },
        {
          "period": "2009Q3",
          "value": 0.32686
        },
        {
          "period": "2009Q4",
          "value": 0.251438
        },
        {
          "period": "2010Q1",
          "value": 0.187326
        },
        {
          "period": "2010Q2",
          "value": 0.181249
        },
        {
          "period": "2010Q3",
          "value": 0.189929
        },
        {
          "period": "2010Q4",
          "value": 0.182224
        },
        {
          "period": "2011Q1",
          "value": 0.152264
        },
        {
          "period": "2011Q2",
          "value": 0.134907
        },
        {
          "period": "2011Q3",
          "value": 0.189274
        },
        {
          "period": "2011Q4",
          "value": 0.224407
        },
        {
          "period": "2012Q1",
          "value": 0.203553
        },
        {
          "period": "2012Q2",
          "value": 0.20497
        },
        {
          "period": "2012Q3",
          "value": 0.192127
        },
        {
          "period": "2012Q4",
          "value": 0.165354
        },
        {
          "period": "2013Q1",
          "value": 0.153995
        },
        {
          "period": "2013Q2",
          "value": 0.147073
        },
        {
          "period": "2013Q3",
          "value": 0.135062
        },
        {
          "period": "2013Q4",
          "value": 0.124083
        },
        {
          "period": "2014Q1",
          "value": 0.116954
        },
        {
          "period": "2014Q2",
          "value": 0.104204
        },
        {
          "period": "2014Q3",
          "value": 0.100337
        },
        {
          "period": "2014Q4",
          "value": 0.114514
        },
        {
          "period": "2015Q1",
          "value": 0.129235
        },
        {
          "period": "2015Q2",
          "value": 0.139947
        },
        {
          "period": "2015Q3",
          "value": 0.179417
        },
        {
          "period": "2015Q4",
          "value": 0.204756
        },
        {
          "period": "2016Q1",
          "value": 0.236678
        },
        {
          "period": "2016Q2",
          "value": 0.209745
        },
        {
          "period": "2016Q3",
          "value": 0.1812
        },
        {
          "period": "2016Q4",
          "value": 0.155474
        },
        {
          "period": "2017Q1",
          "value": 0.144907
        },
        {
          "period": "2017Q2",
          "value": 0.14059
        },
        {
          "period": "2017Q3",
          "value": 0.130019
        },
        {
          "period": "2017Q4",
          "value": 0.113136
        },
        {
          "period": "2018Q1",
          "value": 0.122521
        },
        {
          "period": "2018Q2",
          "value": 0.134428
        },
        {
          "period": "2018Q3",
          "value": 0.173642
        },
        {
          "period": "2018Q4",
          "value": 0.227501
        },
        {
          "period": "2019Q1",
          "value": 0.245535
        },
        {
          "period": "2019Q2",
          "value": 0.247434
        },
        {
          "period": "2019Q3",
          "value": 0.258499
        },
        {
          "period": "2019Q4",
          "value": 0.254821
        },
        {
          "period": "2020Q1",
          "value": 0.337876
        },
        {
          "period": "2020Q2",
          "value": 0.42967
        },
        {
          "period": "2020Q3",
          "value": 0.416602
        },
        {
          "period": "2020Q4",
          "value": 0.395503
        },
        {
          "period": "2021Q1",
          "value": 0.365229
        },
        {
          "period": "2021Q2",
          "value": 0.308823
        },
        {
          "period": "2021Q3",
          "value": 0.241566
        },
        {
          "period": "2021Q4",
          "value": 0.203053
        },
        {
          "period": "2022Q1",
          "value": 0.23062
        },
        {
          "period": "2022Q2",
          "value": 0.302921
        },
        {
          "period": "2022Q3",
          "value": 0.427195
        },
        {
          "period": "2022Q4",
          "value": 0.521801
        },
        {
          "period": "2023Q1",
          "value": 0.497715
        },
        {
          "period": "2023Q2",
          "value": 0.480689
        },
        {
          "period": "2023Q3",
          "value": 0.45183
        },
        {
          "period": "2023Q4",
          "value": 0.436774
        },
        {
          "period": "2024Q1",
          "value": 0.448943
        },
        {
          "period": "2024Q2",
          "value": 0.455027
        },
        {
          "period": "2024Q3",
          "value": 0.464269
        },
        {
          "period": "2024Q4",
          "value": 0.46978
        },
        {
          "period": "2025Q1",
          "value": 0.482905
        },
        {
          "period": "2025Q2",
          "value": 0.5073
        },
        {
          "period": "2025Q3",
          "value": 0.49405
        },
        {
          "period": "2025Q4",
          "value": 0.441682
        },
        {
          "period": "2026Q1",
          "value": 0.400211
        },
        {
          "period": "2026Q2",
          "value": 0.342518
        },
        {
          "period": "2026Q3",
          "value": 0.289582
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "input_units": {
    "yield_curve_pp": "10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield, percentage points",
    "credit_spread_pp": "Baa corporate yield minus 10-year Treasury yield, percentage points",
    "vix_index": "VIX index points",
    "cape_multiple": "CAPE price/earnings multiple"
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "optimistic",
      "label": "Optimistic - lower market fragility",
      "explanation": "Authored lower-stress inputs: a positive yield spread, narrow corporate spread, lower volatility and less stretched valuation. This is not an equity-return forecast.",
      "probability": null,
      "confidence_level": null,
      "assumptions": {
        "current_quarter": "The origin QTD inputs are assumed to remain unchanged through this quarter's close. Its one provisional runtime step is retained once, not applied again at settlement.",
        "future_quarters": [
          {
            "quarter": "2026Q4",
            "yield_curve_pp": 1.0,
            "credit_spread_pp": 1.5,
            "vix_index": 14.0,
            "cape_multiple": 30.0
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q1",
            "yield_curve_pp": 1.0,
            "credit_spread_pp": 1.5,
            "vix_index": 14.0,
            "cape_multiple": 30.0
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q2",
            "yield_curve_pp": 1.0,
            "credit_spread_pp": 1.5,
            "vix_index": 14.0,
            "cape_multiple": 30.0
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q3",
            "yield_curve_pp": 1.0,
            "credit_spread_pp": 1.5,
            "vix_index": 14.0,
            "cape_multiple": 30.0
          }
        ]
      },
      "points": [
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q4",
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "horizon_quarters": 1,
          "value": 0.205703
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q1",
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "horizon_quarters": 2,
          "value": 0.163763
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q2",
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "horizon_quarters": 3,
          "value": 0.142794
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q3",
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "horizon_quarters": 4,
          "value": 0.132309
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "reference",
      "label": "Reference - unchanged market inputs",
      "explanation": "Hold the origin's four quarter-to-date inputs unchanged. This is a reference assumption, not a calibrated most-probable forecast; memory and smoothing can still move the index.",
      "probability": null,
      "confidence_level": null,
      "assumptions": {
        "current_quarter": "The origin QTD inputs are assumed to remain unchanged through this quarter's close. Its one provisional runtime step is retained once, not applied again at settlement.",
        "future_quarters": [
          {
            "quarter": "2026Q4",
            "input_rule": "hold_origin_quarter_to_date_inputs"
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q1",
            "input_rule": "hold_origin_quarter_to_date_inputs"
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q2",
            "input_rule": "hold_origin_quarter_to_date_inputs"
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q3",
            "input_rule": "hold_origin_quarter_to_date_inputs"
          }
        ]
      },
      "points": [
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q4",
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "horizon_quarters": 1,
          "value": 0.263113
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q1",
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "horizon_quarters": 2,
          "value": 0.249879
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q2",
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "horizon_quarters": 3,
          "value": 0.243262
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q3",
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "horizon_quarters": 4,
          "value": 0.239954
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "pessimistic",
      "label": "Pessimistic - higher market fragility",
      "explanation": "Authored higher-stress inputs: an inverted yield spread, wider corporate spread, higher volatility and stretched valuation. No event or crisis probability is assigned.",
      "probability": null,
      "confidence_level": null,
      "assumptions": {
        "current_quarter": "The origin QTD inputs are assumed to remain unchanged through this quarter's close. Its one provisional runtime step is retained once, not applied again at settlement.",
        "future_quarters": [
          {
            "quarter": "2026Q4",
            "yield_curve_pp": -0.5,
            "credit_spread_pp": 4.0,
            "vix_index": 35.0,
            "cape_multiple": 40.0
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q1",
            "yield_curve_pp": -0.5,
            "credit_spread_pp": 4.0,
            "vix_index": 35.0,
            "cape_multiple": 40.0
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q2",
            "yield_curve_pp": -0.5,
            "credit_spread_pp": 4.0,
            "vix_index": 35.0,
            "cape_multiple": 40.0
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q3",
            "yield_curve_pp": -0.5,
            "credit_spread_pp": 4.0,
            "vix_index": 35.0,
            "cape_multiple": 40.0
          }
        ]
      },
      "points": [
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q4",
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "horizon_quarters": 1,
          "value": 0.611791
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q1",
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "horizon_quarters": 2,
          "value": 0.772895
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q2",
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "horizon_quarters": 3,
          "value": 0.853448
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q3",
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "horizon_quarters": 4,
          "value": 0.893724
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "history": {
    "quarterly": [
      {
        "period": "1997Q1",
        "value": 0.099499
      },
      {
        "period": "1997Q2",
        "value": 0.112853
      },
      {
        "period": "1997Q3",
        "value": 0.142042
      },
      {
        "period": "1997Q4",
        "value": 0.199733
      },
      {
        "period": "1998Q1",
        "value": 0.242168
      },
      {
        "period": "1998Q2",
        "value": 0.282635
      },
      {
        "period": "1998Q3",
        "value": 0.334709
      },
      {
        "period": "1998Q4",
        "value": 0.399936
      },
      {
        "period": "1999Q1",
        "value": 0.454797
      },
      {
        "period": "1999Q2",
        "value": 0.460858
      },
      {
        "period": "1999Q3",
        "value": 0.461947
      },
      {
        "period": "1999Q4",
        "value": 0.446497
      },
      {
        "period": "2000Q1",
        "value": 0.449076
      },
      {
        "period": "2000Q2",
        "value": 0.546827
      },
      {
        "period": "2000Q3",
        "value": 0.578677
      },
      {
        "period": "2000Q4",
        "value": 0.628568
      },
      {
        "period": "2001Q1",
        "value": 0.610196
      },
      {
        "period": "2001Q2",
        "value": 0.591077
      },
      {
        "period": "2001Q3",
        "value": 0.596832
      },
      {
        "period": "2001Q4",
        "value": 0.609893
      },
      {
        "period": "2002Q1",
        "value": 0.527047
      },
      {
        "period": "2002Q2",
        "value": 0.381935
      },
      {
        "period": "2002Q3",
        "value": 0.369773
      },
      {
        "period": "2002Q4",
        "value": 0.364862
      },
      {
        "period": "2003Q1",
        "value": 0.316487
      },
      {
        "period": "2003Q2",
        "value": 0.246029
      },
      {
        "period": "2003Q3",
        "value": 0.187505
      },
      {
        "period": "2003Q4",
        "value": 0.140678
      },
      {
        "period": "2004Q1",
        "value": 0.132136
      },
      {
        "period": "2004Q2",
        "value": 0.115034
      },
      {
        "period": "2004Q3",
        "value": 0.1093
      },
      {
        "period": "2004Q4",
        "value": 0.096713
      },
      {
        "period": "2005Q1",
        "value": 0.073912
      },
      {
        "period": "2005Q2",
        "value": 0.063159
      },
      {
        "period": "2005Q3",
        "value": 0.099625
      },
      {
        "period": "2005Q4",
        "value": 0.144112
      },
      {
        "period": "2006Q1",
        "value": 0.189942
      },
      {
        "period": "2006Q2",
        "value": 0.212856
      },
      {
        "period": "2006Q3",
        "value": 0.225714
      },
      {
        "period": "2006Q4",
        "value": 0.24462
      },
      {
        "period": "2007Q1",
        "value": 0.257406
      },
      {
        "period": "2007Q2",
        "value": 0.2638
      },
      {
        "period": "2007Q3",
        "value": 0.292506
      },
      {
        "period": "2007Q4",
        "value": 0.328791
      },
      {
        "period": "2008Q1",
        "value": 0.380979
      },
      {
        "period": "2008Q2",
        "value": 0.387757
      },
      {
        "period": "2008Q3",
        "value": 0.396824
      },
      {
        "period": "2008Q4",
        "value": 0.450082
      },
      {
        "period": "2009Q1",
        "value": 0.450041
      },
      {
        "period": "2009Q2",
        "value": 0.429068
      },
      {
        "period": "2009Q3",
        "value": 0.32686
      },
      {
        "period": "2009Q4",
        "value": 0.251438
      },
      {
        "period": "2010Q1",
        "value": 0.187326
      },
      {
        "period": "2010Q2",
        "value": 0.181249
      },
      {
        "period": "2010Q3",
        "value": 0.189929
      },
      {
        "period": "2010Q4",
        "value": 0.182224
      },
      {
        "period": "2011Q1",
        "value": 0.152264
      },
      {
        "period": "2011Q2",
        "value": 0.134907
      },
      {
        "period": "2011Q3",
        "value": 0.189274
      },
      {
        "period": "2011Q4",
        "value": 0.224407
      },
      {
        "period": "2012Q1",
        "value": 0.203553
      },
      {
        "period": "2012Q2",
        "value": 0.20497
      },
      {
        "period": "2012Q3",
        "value": 0.192127
      },
      {
        "period": "2012Q4",
        "value": 0.165354
      },
      {
        "period": "2013Q1",
        "value": 0.153995
      },
      {
        "period": "2013Q2",
        "value": 0.147073
      },
      {
        "period": "2013Q3",
        "value": 0.135062
      },
      {
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    "historical_pack_sha256": {
      "yield-curve-t10y2y": "5ca0412e73874ea286ca61e750932f708963b4571efc9bc49664bb806cc43f6d",
      "credit-spread-baa10y": "b25747b6613906cf3268fc3e2adfadeeb9b3c3a15eb11e5d192f80987ebf445c",
      "vix": "7cb9c49d8f81823bef5c6522b0d8324370bb9d75db18bc8de3fae0f2dd95b7eb",
      "shiller-cape": "83055e643b1625cdb3daa9f79f492be2ce9d2ff0cbff6e2982791c426a3d7f25"
    },
    "verification": "All 119 quarterly public values reproduced to published precision; each forward path retains identical native historical runtime rows."
  },
  "limitations": [
    "The scenarios vary assumed future market inputs; they do not predict wars, recessions or realized GDP losses.",
    "Optimistic and pessimistic describe this index's lower/higher-stress inputs, not investment returns or scenario probabilities.",
    "No calibrated most-probable path, confidence interval, or probability ranking is available.",
    "The provisional origin is not a final quarter reading. Its QTD means are assumed unchanged through quarter end before future-quarter steps begin.",
    "Historical index values are a retrospective replay from retained vintages, not contemporaneously issued historical forecasts.",
    "The existing settlement band concerns the current quarter; it is not the range or confidence band of these future scenarios."
  ]
}