{ "schema": "ForeGlassVulnerabilityEvidenceProfile", "schema_version": 1, "scope_id": "VULNERABILITY-EVIDENCE-20260921-r1", "status": "experimental_evidence", "status_definition": { "value": "experimental_evidence", "axis": "EVIDENCE MATURITY. This field says how far the evidence has been validated. IT IS NOT A DEPLOYMENT STATE and never describes where these bytes sit", "means": "the measured factors are published official statistics carried without alteration, but their assembly into this six-dimension projection is EXPERIMENTAL: no dimension carries a validated predictive score, and the contagion dimension is a conditional model run over assumed parameters", "does_not_claim": "not validated, not calibrated, not a forecast, and carrying no probability - `overall` is null by design", "why_the_previous_value_was_wrong": "it was `local_candidate`, which described a LOCATION and a lifecycle stage. A reader learned where the file was and nothing about whether its numbers could be relied on - and it could never become true or false, since it would have kept saying `local_candidate` on a live site", "why_not_published": "`published` would be a DEPLOYMENT claim, and a locally generated export cannot establish that anything was published. A field asserting its own deployment state is true by construction at the moment of writing and unfalsifiable afterwards - the same defect facing the other way. Publication is evidenced by a retrieval from the served surface, never by a word in the payload", "vocabulary": { "experimental_evidence": "measured inputs, unvalidated assembly - this artifact", "validated_evidence": "at least one dimension carries a validated predictive score. NOT REACHED AND NOT CLAIMED" } }, "geography": { "id": "USA", "label": "United States" }, "refresh": { "status": "unknown", "checked_at": null, "reason": "Compiled from retained source vintages. Daily publisher refresh and current freshness are not established by generating this file." }, "overall": { "score": null, "probability": null, "confidence": null, "reason": "Different exposure ratios, fiscal flows, activity changes and conditional network responses have no accepted shared scale or probability model; do not sum them." }, "methods": { "exporter": { "path": "scripts/fgl/build-vulnerability-evidence.py", "sha256": "85255560e3f49ad6507e040a3fe5771c536d2e4f4b8c6db02f7de3de3be7c4de", "meaning": "Fingerprint of the exporter that produced this evidence projection." }, "conditional_contagion": { "current_code": [ { "path": "scripts/discovery/build-w142-contagion-delta.py", "sha256": "8d2befe029e8cc9d70294d11875bd3e530d96ff0751631adad3d4889c1276d0d" }, { "path": "orchestration/measured_contagion.py", "sha256": "3414866ceeed06e21bb9ec0e48919744549e026d339fe33acc60560ef53d174c" }, { "path": "runtime/flow_of_funds_network.py", "sha256": "3a7081479e5cfd292e091ee4c60cdf3d7bac56b384de16304c3e66a8a75fb6e4" }, { "path": "runtime/balance_sheet_contagion.py", "sha256": "d632b65c3b5f33afa2fead94a56366c4c1078d84abb990d90a6a025912f87ac8" } ], "original_run_code_sha256": null, "original_run_identity_status": "unknown", "meaning": "Current code fingerprints for inspection only. The retained result card does not record its original run's code hashes. This export reuses the retained card and does not rerun the simulation or claim that today's code produced those historical results." } }, "sources": [ { "id": "fed-household-payments", "path": "data/observations/fred/TDSP.2026-07-25.csv", "sha256": "6c5ed5982a05655f5c5e47118abc325582c03b61097a38d0e858f0897a0fb3a9", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/TDSP.2026-07-25.manifest.json", "verification": { "state": "VERIFIED_AGAINST_COMMITTED_MANIFEST", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/TDSP.2026-07-25.manifest.json", "what_it_proves": "these bytes match the digest recorded in a committed manifest, which this build did not write" }, "rights": { "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "basis": "the committed licence registry classifies this source's directory as 'public-domain': named override: US federal statistical output (plan Phase B table)", "registry_class": "public-domain", "restriction_recorded": null, "statements": { "use": "EVERY RIGHTS STATEMENT THIS ARTIFACT PUBLISHES ABOUT THIS SOURCE IS INSIDE THIS OBJECT - ours and the source's own. NEITHER STRING MAY BE READ WITHOUT THE STANDING BESIDE IT HERE", "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "standing": "CONSISTENT", "standing_basis": "neither the credit line nor the recorded terms claim a permission beyond what the determination supports", "credit_line": { "wording": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "use": "CREDIT ONLY. This text says how to ATTRIBUTE the source. It does NOT say the source may be redistributed - read `public_redistribution`, repeated here so the two cannot be separated", "divergence_from_recorded": { "diverges": false, "mechanism": null, "record": null, "how_determined": "MEASURED at build time by comparing this wording against `recorded_terms.text` in this same object - NOT inferred from which code path ran" } }, "recorded_terms": { "text": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "this_is_evidence_not_a_grant": "THE MANIFEST'S OWN WORDS, BYTE-FOR-BYTE, NEVER EDITED - even where they contradict our determination. This is what we reason ABOUT, not a permission we are passing on. Editing it would destroy the thing the digest vouches for", "read_with": "`standing` and `public_redistribution` in this same object. THIS TEXT MAY ASSERT A PERMISSION THE DETERMINATION WITHHOLDS - measured, two of the nine sources do exactly that, which is why it is welded here rather than exempted from the check" } } }, "manifest_sha256": "06efd6bd06fe1a826858a5b485d3161800dde5e471502deee45a3dc019655350", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=TDSP", "vintage": "2026-07-25", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T02:59:25Z", "role": "observed_source" }, { "id": "fed-corporate-balance-sheet", "path": "data/observations/fed_z1/S11_1_s.2026-09-11.csv", "sha256": "1f8d3aa0b204830c4e0b55ab008b6eab8500292cf6793a67d371e60233f6207d", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fed_z1/S11_1_s.2026-09-11.manifest.json", "verification": { "state": "VERIFIED_AGAINST_COMMITTED_MANIFEST", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fed_z1/S11_1_s.2026-09-11.manifest.json", "what_it_proves": "these bytes match the digest recorded in a committed manifest, which this build did not write" }, "rights": { "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "basis": "the committed licence registry classifies this source's directory as 'public-domain': named override: US federal statistical output (plan Phase B table)", "registry_class": "public-domain", "restriction_recorded": null, "statements": { "use": "EVERY RIGHTS STATEMENT THIS ARTIFACT PUBLISHES ABOUT THIS SOURCE IS INSIDE THIS OBJECT - ours and the source's own. NEITHER STRING MAY BE READ WITHOUT THE STANDING BESIDE IT HERE", "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "standing": "CONSISTENT", "standing_basis": "neither the credit line nor the recorded terms claim a permission beyond what the determination supports", "credit_line": { "wording": "Official U.S. government statistical data; cite the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and preserve release/table identity", "use": "CREDIT ONLY. This text says how to ATTRIBUTE the source. It does NOT say the source may be redistributed - read `public_redistribution`, repeated here so the two cannot be separated", "divergence_from_recorded": { "diverges": false, "mechanism": null, "record": null, "how_determined": "MEASURED at build time by comparing this wording against `recorded_terms.text` in this same object - NOT inferred from which code path ran" } }, "recorded_terms": { "text": "Official U.S. government statistical data; cite the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and preserve release/table identity", "this_is_evidence_not_a_grant": "THE MANIFEST'S OWN WORDS, BYTE-FOR-BYTE, NEVER EDITED - even where they contradict our determination. This is what we reason ABOUT, not a permission we are passing on. Editing it would destroy the thing the digest vouches for", "read_with": "`standing` and `public_redistribution` in this same object. THIS TEXT MAY ASSERT A PERMISSION THE DETERMINATION WITHHOLDS - measured, two of the nine sources do exactly that, which is why it is welded here rather than exempted from the check" } } }, "manifest_sha256": "d7eef18b3d0fbaf4aec44642ae2e5a3e8ff056a5e06cb3eb6c080a1bb480216a", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260911/z1_csv_files.zip", "vintage": "2026-09-11", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T06:36:24Z", "role": "observed_source" }, { "id": "fed-corporate-unit-annotation", "path": "data/fgl/units1-s11-1-s-units-annotation.2026-09-20.json", "sha256": "145bd46e7963644a81aaf5fa090fa2ec43ea3c2662ad3368f35a1f36573f47e3", "manifest_path": "data/fgl/units1-s11-1-s-units-annotation.2026-09-20.manifest.json", "verification": { "state": "VERIFIED_AGAINST_COMMITTED_MANIFEST", "manifest_path": "data/fgl/units1-s11-1-s-units-annotation.2026-09-20.manifest.json", "what_it_proves": "these bytes match the digest recorded in a committed manifest, which this build did not write" }, "rights": { "public_redistribution": "ASSUMED_PERMITTED_BY_CONTEXT", "basis": "the committed licence registry enumerates data/observations/**; this source lives in 'data/fgl' and is OUTSIDE that population, so no registry determination exists for it", "registry_class": null, "restriction_recorded": null, "statements": { "use": "EVERY RIGHTS STATEMENT THIS ARTIFACT PUBLISHES ABOUT THIS SOURCE IS INSIDE THIS OBJECT - ours and the source's own. NEITHER STRING MAY BE READ WITHOUT THE STANDING BESIDE IT HERE", "public_redistribution": "ASSUMED_PERMITTED_BY_CONTEXT", "standing": "UNRECONCILED_REGISTRY_SILENT", "standing_basis": "the credit line asserts a public-domain style permission and the committed registry DOES NOT ENUMERATE this directory, so nothing accepted or refused it. THIS WORDING MAY WELL BE TRUE - it is NOT ESTABLISHED, which is a different statement from REFUTED", "credit_line": { "wording": "ForeGlass Engine annotation of official Federal Reserve statistics; source release preserved.", "use": "CREDIT ONLY. This text says how to ATTRIBUTE the source. It does NOT say the source may be redistributed - read `public_redistribution`, repeated here so the two cannot be separated", "divergence_from_recorded": { "diverges": true, "mechanism": "CALL_SITE_OVERRIDE", "record": { "kind": "CALL_SITE_OVERRIDE", "what": "the producer supplied this credit line directly; it is NOT the manifest's recorded text", "recorded_text_was": "NOT AN ACQUIRED PACK. Locally authored annotation of official Federal Reserve statistics, which are US-government public domain; the source release is preserved unmodified and its terms travel with it", "why_permitted": "these are locally authored or locally derived artifacts, so the credit line is ours to write. `recorded_terms` still carries the manifest's own words, unedited" }, "how_determined": "MEASURED at build time by comparing this wording against `recorded_terms.text` in this same object - NOT inferred from which code path ran" } }, "recorded_terms": { "text": "NOT AN ACQUIRED PACK. Locally authored annotation of official Federal Reserve statistics, which are US-government public domain; the source release is preserved unmodified and its terms travel with it", "this_is_evidence_not_a_grant": "THE MANIFEST'S OWN WORDS, BYTE-FOR-BYTE, NEVER EDITED - even where they contradict our determination. This is what we reason ABOUT, not a permission we are passing on. Editing it would destroy the thing the digest vouches for", "read_with": "`standing` and `public_redistribution` in this same object. THIS TEXT MAY ASSERT A PERMISSION THE DETERMINATION WITHHOLDS - measured, two of the nine sources do exactly that, which is why it is welded here rather than exempted from the check" }, "assumption": { "state": "ASSUMED_PERMITTED_BY_CONTEXT", "replaced_state": "UNESTABLISHED", "this_is_an_assumption_not_a_determination": "NOTHING IN THIS REPOSITORY ESTABLISHES THAT REDISTRIBUTION IS PERMITTED FOR THIS SOURCE. This state records a reasoned assumption from the inputs' standing, taken deliberately and labelled as such", "never_collapse_into_PERMITTED": "a consumer testing `== 'PERMITTED'` MUST NOT match this, and one testing `!= 'PERMITTED'` MUST still exclude it. It remains named in `rights_summary.public_redistribution_unestablished` for exactly that reason", "registry_still_silent": "the standing stays 'UNRECONCILED_REGISTRY_SILENT': an assumption we make does not change what the registry says or does not say", "premises": [ "This artifact is a DERIVATION, not an acquisition - its manifest records `is_a_derivation_not_an_acquisition`.", "It has TWO inputs, not one: `data/observations/fed_z1/S11_1_s.2026-09-11.csv` (the pack) AND `data/observations/fed_z1/S11_1_s.2026-09-11.txt` (the dictionary). Both are named independently by the manifest's `derived_from`/`inputs` and by the artifact's own `subject`.", "Both inputs sit in `data/observations/fed_z1/`, whose `own_class` in the committed registry is `public-domain` by a named override, and whose `family_dirs` is `['fed_z1']` - so the override is DIRECTORY-WIDE and reaches both inputs, not just the pack.", "The annotation adds hand-authored commentary over those inputs and acquires nothing new, so it introduces no third party's terms of its own." ], "why_the_premises_are_published": "a bare 'assumed permitted' is a CLAIM; the premises make it CHECKABLE. If this reasoning was garbled anywhere between the decision and this file, a reader can see that without access to the chain it travelled" } }, "derived_work": { "this_artifact": "ForeGlass-derived; the derivation is ours", "inputs_carry_their_own_terms": [ "data/observations/fed_z1/S11_1_s.2026-09-11.csv", "data/observations/fed_z1/S11_1_s.2026-09-11.txt" ], "why_both": "the derived work's terms and the inputs' terms are different facts. Clearing the derivation does not clear what it was derived from, and vice versa" } }, "manifest_sha256": "9aec919e6c6b6f3ef6c7052024ad449345049941c6487544259884482bd60ce6", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260911/z1_csv_files.zip", "vintage": "2026-09-20", "retrieved_at": null, "role": "unit_annotation" }, { "id": "bls-bts-freight", "path": "data/observations/logistics/freight-cost-indices.2026-09-04.csv", "sha256": "3a9edac850670738bd3f3710112871fce5900a38fe1abf5c0c73208cda1831f6", "manifest_path": "data/observations/logistics/freight-cost-indices.2026-09-04.manifest.json", "verification": { "state": "VERIFIED_AGAINST_COMMITTED_MANIFEST", "manifest_path": "data/observations/logistics/freight-cost-indices.2026-09-04.manifest.json", "what_it_proves": "these bytes match the digest recorded in a committed manifest, which this build did not write" }, "rights": { "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "basis": "the committed licence registry classifies this source's directory as 'public-domain': declared license_class on the manifest", "registry_class": "public-domain", "restriction_recorded": null, "statements": { "use": "EVERY RIGHTS STATEMENT THIS ARTIFACT PUBLISHES ABOUT THIS SOURCE IS INSIDE THIS OBJECT - ours and the source's own. NEITHER STRING MAY BE READ WITHOUT THE STANDING BESIDE IT HERE", "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "standing": "CONSISTENT", "standing_basis": "neither the credit line nor the recorded terms claim a permission beyond what the determination supports", "credit_line": { "wording": "Public domain (17 USC 105) by ORIGINATOR - BLS and BTS are federal agencies. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) is the delivery channel and is NOT itself a federal agency, so the determination follows the originating agency of each series; the FRED attribution notice applies to the channel.", "use": "CREDIT ONLY. This text says how to ATTRIBUTE the source. It does NOT say the source may be redistributed - read `public_redistribution`, repeated here so the two cannot be separated", "divergence_from_recorded": { "diverges": false, "mechanism": null, "record": null, "how_determined": "MEASURED at build time by comparing this wording against `recorded_terms.text` in this same object - NOT inferred from which code path ran" } }, "recorded_terms": { "text": "Public domain (17 USC 105) by ORIGINATOR - BLS and BTS are federal agencies. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) is the delivery channel and is NOT itself a federal agency, so the determination follows the originating agency of each series; the FRED attribution notice applies to the channel.", "this_is_evidence_not_a_grant": "THE MANIFEST'S OWN WORDS, BYTE-FOR-BYTE, NEVER EDITED - even where they contradict our determination. This is what we reason ABOUT, not a permission we are passing on. Editing it would destroy the thing the digest vouches for", "read_with": "`standing` and `public_redistribution` in this same object. THIS TEXT MAY ASSERT A PERMISSION THE DETERMINATION WITHHOLDS - measured, two of the nine sources do exactly that, which is why it is welded here rather than exempted from the check" } }, "excluded_on_licence": { "recorded_absences_proprietary": [ { "series": "Drewry World Container Index", "why_absent": "proprietary; subscription terms forbid redistribution" }, { "series": "Freightos Baltic Index (FBX)", "why_absent": "proprietary; licensed redistribution only" }, { "series": "Baltic Dry Index and Baltic indices", "why_absent": "proprietary (Baltic Exchange); licensed redistribution only" } ], "series_excluded_on_licence": { "FRGSHPUSM649NCIS": { "label": "Cass Freight Index: Shipments", "fred_copyright_tag": "copyrighted: citation required", "originator": "Cass Information Systems (private)", "why_excluded": "vendor-copyrighted; the pack declares public domain BY ORIGINATOR and a private index breaks that claim for every row in the file" } } } }, "manifest_sha256": "c4d8a97fb4c5db96832230340d445dc622a045743e90e49db7f1d63432ec4b55", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TSIFRGHT", "vintage": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T16:52:51.542289+00:00", "role": "observed_source" }, { "id": "treasury-fyfr", "path": "data/observations/fred/FYFR.2026-08-05.csv", "sha256": "2e0cc4e4e68450fa8a71aab3698ed7ba5f4792ea7480d015047339641e66a43f", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/FYFR.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "verification": { "state": "VERIFIED_AGAINST_COMMITTED_MANIFEST", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/FYFR.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "what_it_proves": "these bytes match the digest recorded in a committed manifest, which this build did not write" }, "rights": { "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "basis": "the committed licence registry classifies this source's directory as 'public-domain': named override: US federal statistical output (plan Phase B table)", "registry_class": "public-domain", "restriction_recorded": null, "statements": { "use": "EVERY RIGHTS STATEMENT THIS ARTIFACT PUBLISHES ABOUT THIS SOURCE IS INSIDE THIS OBJECT - ours and the source's own. NEITHER STRING MAY BE READ WITHOUT THE STANDING BESIDE IT HERE", "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "standing": "CONSISTENT", "standing_basis": "neither the credit line nor the recorded terms claim a permission beyond what the determination supports", "credit_line": { "wording": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "use": "CREDIT ONLY. This text says how to ATTRIBUTE the source. It does NOT say the source may be redistributed - read `public_redistribution`, repeated here so the two cannot be separated", "divergence_from_recorded": { "diverges": false, "mechanism": null, "record": null, "how_determined": "MEASURED at build time by comparing this wording against `recorded_terms.text` in this same object - NOT inferred from which code path ran" } }, "recorded_terms": { "text": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "this_is_evidence_not_a_grant": "THE MANIFEST'S OWN WORDS, BYTE-FOR-BYTE, NEVER EDITED - even where they contradict our determination. This is what we reason ABOUT, not a permission we are passing on. Editing it would destroy the thing the digest vouches for", "read_with": "`standing` and `public_redistribution` in this same object. THIS TEXT MAY ASSERT A PERMISSION THE DETERMINATION WITHHOLDS - measured, two of the nine sources do exactly that, which is why it is welded here rather than exempted from the check" } } }, "manifest_sha256": "b7acf4bf871281938d5c8204939788ffd6a23c7b3ca67a7d66dff431d7ebf7fb", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=FYFR", "vintage": "2026-08-05", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T09:26:36Z", "role": "observed_source" }, { "id": "treasury-fyonet", "path": "data/observations/fred/FYONET.2026-08-05.csv", "sha256": "f44e0986caf6309aab5c1259e4065a9703d5b99e29c147a1a4bcdb149dfed334", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/FYONET.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "verification": { "state": "VERIFIED_AGAINST_COMMITTED_MANIFEST", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/FYONET.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "what_it_proves": "these bytes match the digest recorded in a committed manifest, which this build did not write" }, "rights": { "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "basis": "the committed licence registry classifies this source's directory as 'public-domain': named override: US federal statistical output (plan Phase B table)", "registry_class": "public-domain", "restriction_recorded": null, "statements": { "use": "EVERY RIGHTS STATEMENT THIS ARTIFACT PUBLISHES ABOUT THIS SOURCE IS INSIDE THIS OBJECT - ours and the source's own. NEITHER STRING MAY BE READ WITHOUT THE STANDING BESIDE IT HERE", "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "standing": "CONSISTENT", "standing_basis": "neither the credit line nor the recorded terms claim a permission beyond what the determination supports", "credit_line": { "wording": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "use": "CREDIT ONLY. This text says how to ATTRIBUTE the source. It does NOT say the source may be redistributed - read `public_redistribution`, repeated here so the two cannot be separated", "divergence_from_recorded": { "diverges": false, "mechanism": null, "record": null, "how_determined": "MEASURED at build time by comparing this wording against `recorded_terms.text` in this same object - NOT inferred from which code path ran" } }, "recorded_terms": { "text": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "this_is_evidence_not_a_grant": "THE MANIFEST'S OWN WORDS, BYTE-FOR-BYTE, NEVER EDITED - even where they contradict our determination. This is what we reason ABOUT, not a permission we are passing on. Editing it would destroy the thing the digest vouches for", "read_with": "`standing` and `public_redistribution` in this same object. THIS TEXT MAY ASSERT A PERMISSION THE DETERMINATION WITHHOLDS - measured, two of the nine sources do exactly that, which is why it is welded here rather than exempted from the check" } } }, "manifest_sha256": "9a2a5b72808c8b46643e3ecc30e641ec4b5d8b4273291253ff4ec31042c8cc4a", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=FYONET", "vintage": "2026-08-05", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T09:26:36Z", "role": "observed_source" }, { "id": "treasury-fyfsd", "path": "data/observations/fred/FYFSD.2026-08-05.csv", "sha256": "f4e5b30165d969da81b40df3618399e7f68746e2594b07e8e3515ae8deaf4e5a", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/FYFSD.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "verification": { "state": "VERIFIED_AGAINST_COMMITTED_MANIFEST", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/FYFSD.2026-08-05.manifest.json", "what_it_proves": "these bytes match the digest recorded in a committed manifest, which this build did not write" }, "rights": { "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "basis": "the committed licence registry classifies this source's directory as 'public-domain': named override: US federal statistical output (plan Phase B table)", "registry_class": "public-domain", "restriction_recorded": null, "statements": { "use": "EVERY RIGHTS STATEMENT THIS ARTIFACT PUBLISHES ABOUT THIS SOURCE IS INSIDE THIS OBJECT - ours and the source's own. NEITHER STRING MAY BE READ WITHOUT THE STANDING BESIDE IT HERE", "public_redistribution": "PERMITTED", "standing": "CONSISTENT", "standing_basis": "neither the credit line nor the recorded terms claim a permission beyond what the determination supports", "credit_line": { "wording": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "use": "CREDIT ONLY. This text says how to ATTRIBUTE the source. It does NOT say the source may be redistributed - read `public_redistribution`, repeated here so the two cannot be separated", "divergence_from_recorded": { "diverges": false, "mechanism": null, "record": null, "how_determined": "MEASURED at build time by comparing this wording against `recorded_terms.text` in this same object - NOT inferred from which code path ran" } }, "recorded_terms": { "text": "Public domain (FRED Terms of Use)", "this_is_evidence_not_a_grant": "THE MANIFEST'S OWN WORDS, BYTE-FOR-BYTE, NEVER EDITED - even where they contradict our determination. This is what we reason ABOUT, not a permission we are passing on. Editing it would destroy the thing the digest vouches for", "read_with": "`standing` and `public_redistribution` in this same object. THIS TEXT MAY ASSERT A PERMISSION THE DETERMINATION WITHHOLDS - measured, two of the nine sources do exactly that, which is why it is welded here rather than exempted from the check" } } }, "manifest_sha256": "cef43730f8f570666086388d9d54be3c692904f9b6786681935ef5c05e20cd42", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=FYFSD", "vintage": "2026-08-05", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T09:26:37Z", "role": "observed_source" } ], "contract": { "what_this_artifact_is": "a six-dimension evidence projection over committed source packs. Measured inputs carried unaltered; the ASSEMBLY is experimental", "what_it_is_not": "not a forecast, not calibrated, not ranked, and carrying no probability - `overall` is null by design and the dimensions have no shared scale", "pair_on": "profile_id. NOT on dates and NOT on values - equal numbers are not the same origin", "stability": "fields are ADDITIVE. A consumer that reads unknown keys forward keeps working; one that requires an exact key set does not, and should pin profile_id" }, "provenance": { "identity": "profile_id is content_id over the whole profile EXCEPT profile_id itself, so ANY field change moves it - including status and these definitions", "why_that_matters": "a changed claim with an UNCHANGED id would mean the claim was written after the identity and the digest does not vouch for it", "source_verification": "each source states whether its bytes were checked against a digest recorded in a COMMITTED manifest, in `sources[].verification`", "code_identity": "`methods.exporter` fingerprints the producer's own bytes. UNKNOWN HISTORY REMAINS UNKNOWN: `methods.conditional_contagion.original_run_code_sha256` is null because the retained card does not record its original run's code hashes, and a prospective build must NOT backfill it" }, "freshness": { "definition": "freshness here is the age of the OBSERVED DATA, not of this file. Regenerating this artifact does not make its inputs newer", "basis": "each source's own `vintage` and, where it was fetched, `retrieved_at` - both read from its COMMITTED manifest, never from the clock at build time", "three_distinct_facts": { "cadence": "how often the publisher issues the series - a property of the source, recorded per factor", "latest_observation": "the newest period actually in the pack, recorded per factor as `latest`", "checked_at": "when the bytes were last verified against their manifest digest - THIS BUILD. It says nothing about how new the data is" }, "what_a_freshness_claim_requires": "a basis and an as-of. A freshness claim without them cannot be wrong, which is the same defect as a hard-coded provenance year", "not_established_here": "no refresh schedule is asserted. `refresh.status` is 'unknown' and stays so: compiling this file establishes nothing about a publisher's release cadence" }, "rights_summary": { "by_state": { "ASSUMED_PERMITTED_BY_CONTEXT": [ "fed-corporate-unit-annotation" ], "PERMITTED": [ "bls-bts-freight", "fed-corporate-balance-sheet", "fed-household-payments", "treasury-fyfr", "treasury-fyfsd", "treasury-fyonet" ] }, "sources_total": 7, "public_redistribution_unestablished": [ "fed-corporate-unit-annotation" ], "what_that_means": "these sources' terms are RECORDED but NOT DETERMINED by the committed licence registry. That is not a finding that they are encumbered - it is a finding that nothing in this repository establishes that they are not. They are named rather than silently included", "attribution_is_not_permission": "every source carries a licence field. THAT IS NOT THE SAME AS every source being cleared for public redistribution, and this artifact is intended for a public surface", "determined_from": "data/observations/SOURCES.json, the committed licence registry, per source directory - never asserted by this producer" }, "withheld_sources": { "count": 2, "sources_before_withholding": 9, "sources_published": 7, "READ_THIS_FIRST": "THESE TWO ARE ABSENT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS AND ONLY ONE IS A RIGHTS REASON. Taking both as rights findings would read a PERMITTED source's departure as evidence against it, which is backwards", "why_declared_rather_than_simply_absent": "a removal that is not declared cannot be told apart from a source that never existed, and the count would silently agree with itself", "decision_provenance": { "who": "the owner", "what_was_decided": "HOLD THE FINANCIAL CONTAGION DIMENSION until fed-sector-exposures' rights are confirmed", "what_was_NOT_decided": "which sources leave `sources[]`. That is an engineering consequence of holding the dimension, decided by this producer" }, "the_build_still_reads_these": "THESE FILES ARE STILL INPUTS. The producer reads and digest-verifies every source, then withholds these two from the artifact - so `sources[]` is NOT the build's input list any more. Their PATHS are published because a path is not the thing being withheld; the rights record and the derived output are. Without them, anyone reconstructing this build from the artifact comes up two files short and cannot reproduce the identity", "withheld": [ { "id": "conditional-contagion-card", "path": "data/observations/calibration_audits/w142-contagion-delta.2026-08-10.json", "manifest_path": "data/observations/calibration_audits/w142-contagion-delta.2026-08-10.manifest.json", "withheld_because": "DERIVED_PRODUCT_OF_A_WITHHELD_DIMENSION", "its_own_rights": "PERMITTED", "detail": "THIS SOURCE'S REDISTRIBUTION IS PERMITTED AND IT IS LEAVING ANYWAY. It is absent because it is the computed output of the withheld dimension, NOT because of any finding against it. Read its departure as a publication consequence, never as a rights result" }, { "id": "fed-sector-exposures", "path": "data/observations/financial_networks/us-fwtw-edges-2018Q1-2026Q1.2026-07-30.csv", "manifest_path": "data/observations/financial_networks/us-fwtw-edges-2018Q1-2026Q1.2026-07-30.manifest.json", "withheld_because": "RIGHTS_UNESTABLISHED", "detail": "the committed registry records this source's licence text and DOES NOT ACCEPT its claim, so redistribution is not established. It is the PRIMARY INPUT to the withheld dimension rather than a supporting file", "its_own_rights_record_is_deliberately_not_published": "publishing the CONTRADICTED rights record of content withheld BECAUSE its rights are unestablished would publish the very thing the withholding protects against" } ] }, "statement_invariants": { "sources_checked": 7, "credit_line_diverges_from_recorded_terms": 1, "by_mechanism": { "CALL_SITE_OVERRIDE": 1 }, "standing_duplication_invariant": "rights.public_redistribution == rights.statements.public_redistribution, ASSERTED AT BUILD TIME for every source; the build refuses on mismatch", "divergence_rule": "every divergence between the shipped credit line and the manifest's recorded terms names its mechanism, MEASURED by comparing the two strings rather than inferred from the code path; a divergence with no mechanism refuses the build" }, "dimensions": [ { "id": "debt-service", "title": "Debt-service / solvency", "question": "How much household income is committed to required debt payments?", "status": "measured_factors", "summary": "Published household statistics: quarterly estimated payment-burden history. Business payment coverage and aggregate solvency remain separate questions.", "limitations": [ "Households only; not corporate debt service or all private borrowers.", "An aggregate ratio conceals unequal income, debt and liquid buffers.", "No pre-2005 method splice or daily interpolation.", "OUR RETRIEVAL RETURNED TEXT STATING that quarterly values computed with the current methodology are available FROM 2005 FORWARD. This matches the pack exactly: 85 quarterly observations, 2005-01-01 through 2026-01-01", "OUR RETRIEVAL RETURNED NO STATEMENT of when the current methodology was introduced, revised or first applied - only of when values computed with it are available. A CONVERSION THAT CAN DROP CONTENT CANNOT DISTINGUISH AN ABSENCE AT THE SOURCE FROM AN ABSENCE IN THE RENDERING, so this is NOT evidence that the page is silent; it is evidence that what reached us was. No method-vintage is recorded here either way", "Historical values use the retained current vintage; they are not an archive of the values known or published at each historical date." ], "factors": [ { "id": "household-debt-service", "label": "Household required debt payments / disposable income", "unit": "% of disposable personal income", "cadence": "quarterly", "source_ids": [ "fed-household-payments" ], "interpretation": "Publisher estimate of the aggregate household payment burden. Required payments differ from payments actually made and from business debt service.", "baseline_meaning": "Zero means no required payments in this ratio, not a safe-economy threshold. There is no calibrated risk cutoff.", "higher_means": "A larger aggregate share of household disposable income is committed to required payments.", "points": [ { "period": "2005Q1", "date": "2005-01-01", "value": 14.799802 }, { "period": "2005Q2", "date": "2005-04-01", "value": 14.828576 }, { "period": "2005Q3", "date": "2005-07-01", "value": 15.139959 }, { "period": "2005Q4", "date": "2005-10-01", "value": 15.02855 }, { "period": "2006Q1", "date": "2006-01-01", "value": 14.989443 }, { "period": "2006Q2", "date": "2006-04-01", "value": 15.044255 }, { "period": "2006Q3", "date": "2006-07-01", "value": 15.367228 }, { "period": "2006Q4", "date": "2006-10-01", "value": 15.509711 }, { "period": "2007Q1", "date": "2007-01-01", "value": 15.526607 }, { "period": "2007Q2", "date": "2007-04-01", "value": 15.63251 }, { "period": "2007Q3", "date": "2007-07-01", "value": 15.712123 }, { "period": "2007Q4", "date": "2007-10-01", "value": 15.846367 }, { "period": "2008Q1", "date": "2008-01-01", "value": 15.775857 }, { "period": "2008Q2", "date": "2008-04-01", "value": 15.326612 }, { "period": "2008Q3", "date": "2008-07-01", "value": 15.546547 }, { "period": "2008Q4", "date": "2008-10-01", "value": 15.72136 }, { "period": "2009Q1", "date": "2009-01-01", "value": 15.5975 }, { "period": "2009Q2", "date": "2009-04-01", "value": 15.251967 }, { "period": "2009Q3", "date": "2009-07-01", "value": 15.08588 }, { "period": "2009Q4", "date": "2009-10-01", "value": 14.896385 }, { "period": "2010Q1", "date": "2010-01-01", "value": 14.51494 }, { "period": "2010Q2", "date": "2010-04-01", "value": 14.069775 }, { "period": "2010Q3", "date": "2010-07-01", "value": 13.917807 }, { "period": "2010Q4", "date": "2010-10-01", "value": 13.580863 }, { "period": "2011Q1", "date": "2011-01-01", "value": 13.30846 }, { "period": "2011Q2", "date": "2011-04-01", "value": 13.057706 }, { "period": "2011Q3", "date": "2011-07-01", "value": 12.944597 }, { "period": "2011Q4", "date": "2011-10-01", "value": 12.749684 }, { "period": "2012Q1", "date": "2012-01-01", "value": 12.237059 }, { "period": "2012Q2", "date": "2012-04-01", "value": 12.034065 }, { "period": "2012Q3", "date": "2012-07-01", "value": 12.083107 }, { "period": "2012Q4", "date": "2012-10-01", "value": 11.754033 }, { "period": "2013Q1", "date": "2013-01-01", "value": 12.006598 }, { "period": "2013Q2", "date": "2013-04-01", "value": 11.794391 }, { "period": "2013Q3", "date": "2013-07-01", "value": 11.837713 }, { "period": "2013Q4", "date": "2013-10-01", "value": 11.985283 }, { "period": "2014Q1", "date": "2014-01-01", "value": 11.883758 }, { "period": "2014Q2", "date": "2014-04-01", "value": 11.62114 }, { "period": "2014Q3", "date": "2014-07-01", "value": 11.646947 }, { "period": "2014Q4", "date": "2014-10-01", "value": 11.631993 }, { "period": "2015Q1", "date": "2015-01-01", "value": 11.556634 }, { "period": "2015Q2", "date": "2015-04-01", "value": 11.485147 }, { "period": "2015Q3", "date": "2015-07-01", "value": 11.606488 }, { "period": "2015Q4", "date": "2015-10-01", "value": 11.738976 }, { "period": "2016Q1", "date": "2016-01-01", "value": 11.763247 }, { "period": "2016Q2", "date": "2016-04-01", "value": 11.766109 }, { "period": "2016Q3", "date": "2016-07-01", "value": 11.769855 }, { "period": "2016Q4", "date": "2016-10-01", "value": 11.865818 }, { "period": "2017Q1", "date": "2017-01-01", "value": 11.723758 }, { "period": "2017Q2", "date": "2017-04-01", "value": 11.756991 }, { "period": "2017Q3", "date": "2017-07-01", "value": 11.818444 }, { "period": "2017Q4", "date": "2017-10-01", "value": 11.816704 }, { "period": "2018Q1", "date": "2018-01-01", "value": 11.644589 }, { "period": "2018Q2", "date": "2018-04-01", "value": 11.598389 }, { "period": "2018Q3", "date": "2018-07-01", "value": 11.619573 }, { "period": "2018Q4", "date": "2018-10-01", "value": 11.66641 }, { "period": "2019Q1", "date": "2019-01-01", "value": 11.49991 }, { "period": "2019Q2", "date": "2019-04-01", "value": 11.626991 }, { "period": "2019Q3", "date": "2019-07-01", "value": 11.646611 }, { "period": "2019Q4", "date": "2019-10-01", "value": 11.727653 }, { "period": "2020Q1", "date": "2020-01-01", "value": 11.591159 }, { "period": "2020Q2", "date": "2020-04-01", "value": 9.739844 }, { "period": "2020Q3", "date": "2020-07-01", "value": 10.05851 }, { "period": "2020Q4", "date": "2020-10-01", "value": 10.389381 }, { "period": "2021Q1", "date": "2021-01-01", "value": 9.051457 }, { "period": "2021Q2", "date": "2021-04-01", "value": 9.841025 }, { "period": "2021Q3", "date": "2021-07-01", "value": 10.009588 }, { "period": "2021Q4", "date": "2021-10-01", "value": 10.228796 }, { "period": "2022Q1", "date": "2022-01-01", "value": 10.472393 }, { "period": "2022Q2", "date": "2022-04-01", "value": 10.684739 }, { "period": "2022Q3", "date": "2022-07-01", "value": 10.567838 }, { "period": "2022Q4", "date": "2022-10-01", "value": 10.736945 }, { "period": "2023Q1", "date": "2023-01-01", "value": 10.564109 }, { "period": "2023Q2", "date": "2023-04-01", "value": 10.577002 }, { "period": "2023Q3", "date": "2023-07-01", "value": 10.747842 }, { "period": "2023Q4", "date": "2023-10-01", "value": 11.096141 }, { "period": "2024Q1", "date": "2024-01-01", "value": 11.058904 }, { "period": "2024Q2", "date": "2024-04-01", "value": 11.01936 }, { "period": "2024Q3", "date": "2024-07-01", "value": 11.138759 }, { "period": "2024Q4", "date": "2024-10-01", "value": 11.122486 }, { "period": "2025Q1", "date": "2025-01-01", "value": 11.105381 }, { "period": "2025Q2", "date": "2025-04-01", "value": 11.124241 }, { "period": "2025Q3", "date": "2025-07-01", "value": 11.229451 }, { "period": "2025Q4", "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 11.322759 }, { "period": "2026Q1", "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 11.164138 } ], "latest": { "period": "2026Q1", "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 11.164138 }, "freshness": { "status": "unknown", "checked_at": null, "reason": "Retained source vintage; no current publisher availability check was performed by this export." }, "method": { "description": "scheduled required payments taken from credit-bureau data, with mortgage payments including bundled escrow", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/DSR/about.htm", "verified_at": "2026-09-21", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T19:12:00Z", "verification": "RETRIEVED BY US at 2026-09-21T19:12:00Z, and our retrieval returned text matching this description. NOT VERIFIED AGAINST THE PUBLISHER'S BYTES: the cited record is a tool conversion - markdown plus an extraction - and NO DIGEST IN IT IS A DIGEST OF THE PAGE. So this is first-hand as far as our own reading goes and no further", "manifest_path": "data/observations/fred/TDSP.2026-07-25.manifest.json", "manifest_sha256": "06efd6bd06fe1a826858a5b485d3161800dde5e471502deee45a3dc019655350", "retrieval_record": { "path": "data/observations/fred/TDSP.method-retrieval-record.2026-09-21.txt", "sha256": "e86e621ec1aadb34f012882625efa69086da2946a4bc0c687125cf319db4d544", "what_it_is": "the committed record of this retrieval, so the quotations above are RE-DERIVABLE by anyone rather than taken on our word", "what_it_is_not": "NOT a snapshot of the publisher's bytes. The tool returns a markdown conversion and an extraction, not raw HTML, so this establishes what OUR RETRIEVAL RETURNED at the instant, not what the page's markup contained. A first-hand source improves provenance only as far as the artifact it leaves behind" }, "retrospective_coverage": "OUR RETRIEVAL RETURNED TEXT STATING that quarterly values computed with the current methodology are available FROM 2005 FORWARD. This matches the pack exactly: 85 quarterly observations, 2005-01-01 through 2026-01-01", "introduction_date": null, "introduction_date_status": "OUR RETRIEVAL RETURNED NO STATEMENT of when the current methodology was introduced, revised or first applied - only of when values computed with it are available. A CONVERSION THAT CAN DROP CONTENT CANNOT DISTINGUISH AN ABSENCE AT THE SOURCE FROM AN ABSENCE IN THE RENDERING, so this is NOT evidence that the page is silent; it is evidence that what reached us was. No method-vintage is recorded here either way" } } ], "scenario": null, "fragility_score": null, "probability": null, "confidence": null, "unavailable_reason": "No calibrated current vulnerability score or event probability has been established for this dimension." }, { "id": "liquidity", "title": "Refinancing / liquidity", "question": "How do corporate broad liquid assets compare with short-term liabilities?", "status": "measured_factors", "summary": "Published balance-sheet statistics: a quarterly sector ratio gives funding context, without claiming a measured maturity wall.", "limitations": [ "Broad liquid assets are not cash and may not be accessible at a common price under stress.", "No borrower-level maturities, credit-line availability, collateral calls or near-term cash-flow gap are established." ], "factors": [ { "id": "corporate-liquid-coverage", "label": "Corporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities", "unit": "% of short-term liabilities", "cadence": "quarterly", "source_ids": [ "fed-corporate-balance-sheet", "fed-corporate-unit-annotation" ], "interpretation": "A ratio for the nonfinancial corporate sector. Broad liquid assets are not all immediately available cash, and aggregation can hide individual funding gaps.", "baseline_meaning": "100% means equal aggregate broad liquid assets and short-term liabilities; it is not a solvency or liquidity pass/fail cutoff.", "higher_means": "More broad liquid assets relative to the sector's short-term liabilities; accessibility and payment timing remain unknown.", "points": [ { "period": "2000Q1", "date": "2000-01-01", "value": 94.3205888223777 }, { "period": "2000Q2", "date": "2000-04-01", "value": 87.49412836863297 }, { "period": "2000Q3", "date": "2000-07-01", "value": 84.26409716123678 }, { "period": "2000Q4", "date": "2000-10-01", "value": 76.82502641249569 }, { "period": "2001Q1", "date": "2001-01-01", "value": 68.76826209475702 }, { "period": "2001Q2", "date": "2001-04-01", "value": 71.63089872411045 }, { "period": "2001Q3", "date": "2001-07-01", "value": 64.9185012081914 }, { "period": "2001Q4", "date": "2001-10-01", "value": 71.94070209392056 }, { "period": "2002Q1", "date": "2002-01-01", "value": 72.44167444836907 }, { "period": "2002Q2", "date": "2002-04-01", "value": 67.73871908745832 }, { "period": "2002Q3", "date": "2002-07-01", "value": 60.83501155220497 }, { "period": "2002Q4", "date": "2002-10-01", "value": 64.89362976559657 }, { "period": "2003Q1", "date": "2003-01-01", "value": 64.73794298699042 }, { "period": "2003Q2", "date": "2003-04-01", "value": 71.83723642329917 }, { "period": "2003Q3", "date": "2003-07-01", "value": 73.8031004895064 }, { "period": "2003Q4", "date": "2003-10-01", "value": 77.89039877758303 }, { "period": "2004Q1", "date": "2004-01-01", "value": 78.91978184099015 }, { "period": "2004Q2", "date": "2004-04-01", "value": 79.29588519853105 }, { "period": "2004Q3", "date": "2004-07-01", "value": 78.32057445734063 }, { "period": "2004Q4", "date": "2004-10-01", "value": 79.85602489952116 }, { "period": "2005Q1", "date": "2005-01-01", "value": 75.84582418604832 }, { "period": "2005Q2", "date": "2005-04-01", "value": 73.73324589710322 }, { "period": "2005Q3", "date": "2005-07-01", "value": 74.24465135580883 }, { "period": "2005Q4", "date": "2005-10-01", "value": 75.5696149139188 }, { "period": "2006Q1", "date": "2006-01-01", "value": 72.65465495143962 }, { "period": "2006Q2", "date": "2006-04-01", "value": 67.6305154176521 }, { "period": "2006Q3", "date": "2006-07-01", "value": 67.62418275990262 }, { "period": "2006Q4", "date": "2006-10-01", "value": 67.95742750105555 }, { "period": "2007Q1", "date": "2007-01-01", "value": 65.75324430460931 }, { "period": "2007Q2", "date": "2007-04-01", "value": 66.1200856857183 }, { "period": "2007Q3", "date": "2007-07-01", "value": 65.30679783630873 }, { "period": "2007Q4", "date": "2007-10-01", "value": 62.25485296581459 }, { "period": "2008Q1", "date": "2008-01-01", "value": 59.28067230379198 }, { "period": "2008Q2", "date": "2008-04-01", "value": 60.45445517189248 }, { "period": "2008Q3", "date": "2008-07-01", "value": 58.239074783602284 }, { "period": "2008Q4", "date": "2008-10-01", "value": 54.314647997324215 }, { "period": "2009Q1", "date": "2009-01-01", "value": 55.61389521956477 }, { "period": "2009Q2", "date": "2009-04-01", "value": 60.45094396705326 }, { "period": "2009Q3", "date": "2009-07-01", "value": 69.49393380537504 }, { "period": "2009Q4", "date": "2009-10-01", "value": 75.75542758127868 }, { "period": "2010Q1", "date": "2010-01-01", "value": 75.74802236744434 }, { "period": "2010Q2", "date": "2010-04-01", "value": 71.73617055192987 }, { "period": "2010Q3", "date": "2010-07-01", "value": 74.98688120298796 }, { "period": "2010Q4", "date": "2010-10-01", "value": 81.37337091292335 }, { "period": "2011Q1", "date": "2011-01-01", "value": 78.73141121929193 }, { "period": "2011Q2", "date": "2011-04-01", "value": 79.52184001275107 }, { "period": "2011Q3", "date": "2011-07-01", "value": 70.77679290510488 }, { "period": "2011Q4", "date": "2011-10-01", "value": 75.11023040694919 }, { "period": 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Here pp means percentage points.", "excluded_series": [ "FL104140006.Q (separate short-term debt ratio not reconciled by this annotation)" ] } ], "scenario": null, "fragility_score": null, "probability": null, "confidence": null, "unavailable_reason": "No calibrated current vulnerability score or event probability has been established for this dimension." }, { "id": "contagion", "title": "Financial contagion", "question": "How does a 30% assumed distress seed spread through a 25-sector network with capital assumed at 8% of network assets?", "status": "withheld_pending_rights", "summary": "Conditional model experiment: 25 measured sectors, a 30% initial distress seed and assumed 8% capital buffers; three statistical-discrepancy treatments.", "limitations": [], "factors": [], "scenario": null, "fragility_score": null, "probability": null, "confidence": null, "unavailable_reason": "No calibrated current vulnerability score or event probability has been established for this dimension.", "withheld_reason": { "why": "the primary input to this dimension, `fed-sector-exposures`, has UNESTABLISHED redistribution rights, and this dimension is held until they are confirmed", "this_is_a_contradiction_not_a_refutation": "the committed registry RECORDED this source's licence text and DID NOT ACCEPT its claim. That is not a finding that redistribution is forbidden - it is a finding that nothing establishes it is permitted. NOT ESTABLISHED and REFUTED are different statements", "limitations_are_empty_deliberately": "every limitation this dimension carried qualified the withheld payload. Carrying them beside a null scenario would describe the shortcomings of something not present", "unavailable_reason_is_a_DIFFERENT_AXIS": "that field says no calibrated score exists, which is true of all five dimensions and still true here. IT IS NOT THE WITHHOLDING AND WAS NOT OVERWRITTEN", "restores_by": "confirming fed-sector-exposures' redistribution rights; nothing in this artifact answers that question" } }, { "id": "supply", "title": "External / supply dependencies", "question": "Is measured freight activity expanding or contracting?", "status": "measured_factors", "summary": "Observed activity context: monthly freight-volume growth is a supporting supply-and-demand condition, not a direct foreign-dependency estimate.", "limitations": [ "This is US freight activity, not foreign supplier concentration, available inventory, delivery delay or interruption probability.", "Demand weakness and supply constraints can both lower freight volume; no cause is inferred from this series alone." ], "factors": [ { "id": "freight-volume-yoy", "label": "US freight transportation volume: year-over-year change", "unit": "% change from the same month one year earlier", "cadence": "monthly", "source_ids": [ "bls-bts-freight" ], "interpretation": "BTS Freight Transportation Services Index volume growth. Lower volumes can reflect weaker demand or a disruption; this series alone cannot separate them.", "baseline_meaning": "Zero means unchanged measured freight volume versus the same month one year earlier, not absence of supply vulnerability.", "higher_means": "Faster freight-volume growth; it does not establish safer supply chains.", "points": [ { "period": "2000-01", "date": "2000-01-01", "value": null, "missing_reason": "No usable observation in the exact year-earlier month" }, { "period": "2000-02", "date": "2000-02-01", "value": null, "missing_reason": "No usable observation in the exact year-earlier month" }, { "period": "2000-03", "date": "2000-03-01", "value": null, "missing_reason": "No usable observation in the exact year-earlier month" }, { "period": "2000-04", "date": "2000-04-01", "value": null, "missing_reason": "No usable observation in the exact year-earlier month" }, { "period": "2000-05", "date": "2000-05-01", "value": null, "missing_reason": "No usable observation in 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1.2354651162790775 }, { "period": "2026-04", "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.509461426491975 }, { "period": "2026-05", "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -1.2408759124087454 }, { "period": "2026-06", "date": "2026-06-01", "value": -1.7479970866715266 } ], "latest": { "period": "2026-06", "date": "2026-06-01", "value": -1.7479970866715266 }, "freshness": { "status": "unknown", "checked_at": null, "reason": "Retained source vintage; no current publisher availability check was performed by this export." }, "source_series_id": "TSIFRGHT", "formula": "100 * (index[month] / index[same month in previous year] - 1); no interpolation or substituted lag." } ], "scenario": null, "fragility_score": null, "probability": null, "confidence": null, "unavailable_reason": "No calibrated current vulnerability score or event probability has been established for this dimension." }, { "id": "fiscal", "title": "Fiscal / policy buffers", "question": "How do annual federal receipts, spending and the budget balance compare?", "status": "measured_factors", "summary": "Observed fiscal context: compatible fiscal-year cash-flow histories show the federal financing position.", "limitations": [ "Nominal fiscal-year federal flows; not a complete national balance sheet or all levels of government.", "Debt maturity, currency, market access, inflation and institutional capacity remain outside this factor panel.", "No quarterly NIPA interest is divided by fiscal-year cash receipts." ], "factors": [ { "id": "federal-receipts", "label": "Federal receipts", "unit": "trillion current USD per fiscal year", "cadence": "annual fiscal year", "source_ids": [ "treasury-fyfr" ], "interpretation": "US federal budget cash flows, aligned to the same fiscal year; not all levels of government. Nominal values are not inflation-adjusted.", "baseline_meaning": "Balance zero means receipts equal outlays. Positive is surplus, negative is deficit. Neither is a calibrated measure of fiscal capacity.", "higher_means": "A larger nominal annual flow; the sign of the balance distinguishes surplus from deficit.", "points": [ { "period": "FY2000", "date": "2000-09-30", "value": 2.025191 }, { "period": "FY2001", "date": "2001-09-30", "value": 1.991082 }, { "period": "FY2002", "date": "2002-09-30", "value": 1.853136 }, { "period": "FY2003", "date": "2003-09-30", "value": 1.782314 }, { "period": "FY2004", "date": "2004-09-30", "value": 1.880114 }, { "period": "FY2005", "date": "2005-09-30", "value": 2.153611 }, { "period": "FY2006", "date": "2006-09-30", "value": 2.406869 }, { "period": "FY2007", "date": "2007-09-30", "value": 2.567985 }, { "period": "FY2008", "date": "2008-09-30", "value": 2.523991 }, { "period": "FY2009", "date": "2009-09-30", "value": 2.104989 }, { "period": "FY2010", "date": "2010-09-30", "value": 2.162706 }, { "period": "FY2011", "date": "2011-09-30", "value": 2.303466 }, { "period": "FY2012", "date": "2012-09-30", "value": 2.44999 }, { "period": "FY2013", "date": "2013-09-30", "value": 2.775106 }, { "period": "FY2014", "date": "2014-09-30", "value": 3.021491 }, { "period": "FY2015", "date": "2015-09-30", "value": 3.24989 }, { "period": "FY2016", "date": "2016-09-30", "value": 3.267965 }, { "period": "FY2017", "date": "2017-09-30", "value": 3.316184 }, { "period": "FY2018", "date": "2018-09-30", "value": 3.329907 }, { "period": "FY2019", "date": "2019-09-30", "value": 3.463364 }, { "period": "FY2020", "date": "2020-09-30", "value": 3.421164 }, { "period": "FY2021", "date": "2021-09-30", "value": 4.047111 }, { "period": "FY2022", "date": "2022-09-30", "value": 4.897339 }, { "period": "FY2023", "date": "2023-09-30", "value": 4.440948 }, { "period": "FY2024", "date": "2024-09-30", "value": 4.919884 }, { "period": "FY2025", "date": "2025-09-30", "value": 5.236421 } ], "latest": { "period": "FY2025", "date": "2025-09-30", "value": 5.236421 }, "freshness": { "status": "unknown", "checked_at": null, "reason": "Retained source vintage; no current publisher availability check was performed by this export." } }, { "id": "federal-outlays", "label": "Federal outlays", "unit": "trillion current USD per fiscal year", "cadence": "annual fiscal year", "source_ids": [ "treasury-fyonet" ], "interpretation": "US federal budget cash flows, aligned to the same fiscal year; not all levels of government. Nominal values are not inflation-adjusted.", "baseline_meaning": "Balance zero means receipts equal outlays. Positive is surplus, negative is deficit. Neither is a calibrated measure of fiscal capacity.", "higher_means": "A larger nominal annual flow; the sign of the balance distinguishes surplus from deficit.", "points": [ { "period": "FY2000", "date": "2000-09-30", "value": 1.78895 }, { "period": "FY2001", "date": "2001-09-30", "value": 1.862846 }, { "period": "FY2002", "date": "2002-09-30", "value": 2.010894 }, { "period": "FY2003", "date": "2003-09-30", "value": 2.159899 }, { "period": "FY2004", "date": "2004-09-30", "value": 2.292841 }, { "period": "FY2005", "date": "2005-09-30", "value": 2.471957 }, { "period": "FY2006", "date": "2006-09-30", "value": 2.65505 }, { "period": "FY2007", "date": "2007-09-30", "value": 2.728686 }, { "period": "FY2008", "date": "2008-09-30", "value": 2.982544 }, { "period": "FY2009", "date": "2009-09-30", "value": 3.517677 }, { "period": "FY2010", "date": "2010-09-30", "value": 3.457079 }, { "period": "FY2011", "date": "2011-09-30", "value": 3.603065 }, { "period": "FY2012", "date": "2012-09-30", "value": 3.526563 }, { "period": "FY2013", "date": "2013-09-30", "value": 3.454881 }, { "period": "FY2014", "date": "2014-09-30", "value": 3.506284 }, { "period": "FY2015", "date": "2015-09-30", "value": 3.69185 }, { "period": "FY2016", "date": "2016-09-30", "value": 3.852615 }, { "period": "FY2017", "date": "2017-09-30", "value": 3.981634 }, { "period": "FY2018", "date": "2018-09-30", "value": 4.108981 }, { "period": "FY2019", "date": "2019-09-30", "value": 4.446952 }, { "period": "FY2020", "date": "2020-09-30", "value": 6.516817 }, { "period": "FY2021", "date": "2021-09-30", "value": 6.820705 }, { "period": "FY2022", "date": "2022-09-30", "value": 6.27151 }, { "period": "FY2023", "date": "2023-09-30", "value": 6.128415 }, { "period": "FY2024", "date": "2024-09-30", "value": 6.735261 }, { "period": "FY2025", "date": "2025-09-30", "value": 7.011105 } ], "latest": { "period": "FY2025", "date": "2025-09-30", "value": 7.011105 }, "freshness": { "status": "unknown", "checked_at": null, "reason": "Retained source vintage; no current publisher availability check was performed by this export." } }, { "id": "federal-balance", "label": "Federal budget balance (receipts minus outlays)", "unit": "trillion current USD per fiscal year", "cadence": "annual fiscal year", "source_ids": [ "treasury-fyfsd" ], "interpretation": "US federal budget cash flows, aligned to the same fiscal year; not all levels of government. Nominal values are not inflation-adjusted.", "baseline_meaning": "Balance zero means receipts equal outlays. Positive is surplus, negative is deficit. Neither is a calibrated measure of fiscal capacity.", "higher_means": "A larger nominal annual flow; the sign of the balance distinguishes surplus from deficit.", "points": [ { "period": "FY2000", "date": "2000-09-30", "value": 0.236241 }, { "period": "FY2001", "date": "2001-09-30", "value": 0.128236 }, { "period": "FY2002", "date": "2002-09-30", "value": -0.157758 }, { "period": "FY2003", "date": "2003-09-30", "value": -0.377585 }, { "period": "FY2004", "date": "2004-09-30", "value": -0.412727 }, { "period": "FY2005", "date": "2005-09-30", "value": -0.318346 }, { "period": "FY2006", "date": "2006-09-30", "value": -0.248181 }, { "period": "FY2007", "date": "2007-09-30", "value": -0.160701 }, { "period": "FY2008", "date": "2008-09-30", "value": -0.458553 }, { "period": "FY2009", "date": "2009-09-30", "value": -1.412688 }, { "period": "FY2010", "date": "2010-09-30", "value": -1.294373 }, { "period": "FY2011", "date": "2011-09-30", "value": -1.299599 }, { "period": "FY2012", "date": "2012-09-30", "value": -1.076573 }, { "period": "FY2013", "date": "2013-09-30", "value": -0.679775 }, { "period": "FY2014", "date": "2014-09-30", "value": -0.484793 }, { "period": "FY2015", "date": "2015-09-30", "value": -0.44196 }, { "period": "FY2016", "date": "2016-09-30", "value": -0.58465 }, { "period": "FY2017", "date": "2017-09-30", "value": -0.66545 }, { "period": "FY2018", "date": "2018-09-30", "value": -0.779074 }, { "period": "FY2019", "date": "2019-09-30", "value": -0.983588 }, { "period": "FY2020", "date": "2020-09-30", "value": -3.095653 }, { "period": "FY2021", "date": "2021-09-30", "value": -2.773594 }, { "period": "FY2022", "date": "2022-09-30", "value": -1.374171 }, { "period": "FY2023", "date": "2023-09-30", "value": -1.687467 }, { "period": "FY2024", "date": "2024-09-30", "value": -1.815377 }, { "period": "FY2025", "date": "2025-09-30", "value": -1.774684 } ], "latest": { "period": "FY2025", "date": "2025-09-30", "value": -1.774684 }, "freshness": { "status": "unknown", "checked_at": null, "reason": "Retained source vintage; no current publisher availability check was performed by this export." } } ], "scenario": null, "fragility_score": null, "probability": null, "confidence": null, "unavailable_reason": "No calibrated current vulnerability score or event probability has been established for this dimension." } ], "profile_id": "0cbc26fed1827ae8814041ea5dd810fc924e01e1df4016e8bff91b44c8ee305b" }