{
  "meta": {
    "purpose": "Historical educational comparison",
    "live": false,
    "geography": "United States",
    "index_is_probability": false,
    "start": "1997Q1",
    "end": "2026Q2",
    "built_on": "2026-09-20",
    "rate_vintage": "2026-08-22",
    "rate_observations_through": "2026-08-20",
    "index_date": "2026-09-20",
    "index_sha256": "5acb6203dbbce3b46d52fd57b80c2343d44762ed2c63b7a402428740d63c5103",
    "rate_sha256": "83e93b21e3466ac3718813dae65348661bf8ff4f57254f2913f8bdc350e0d525",
    "reference_spread_sha256": "c9fee476c615a9a5700ea293464e16c97b38ab950fa998b17dfbf9b417b8cf3d",
    "rate_source": "Federal Reserve Board H.15, via FRED DGS2 and DGS10",
    "rate_source_urls": [
      "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
      "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10"
    ],
    "index_source": "ForeGlass public readings/fragility/latest.json, retained snapshot",
    "method": "Inner-join DGS2/DGS10 by date; arithmetic quarterly mean of paired observations. Spread equals 10-year minus 2-year. Index copied from public history.",
    "history_basis": "Retrospective replay from the snapshot vintage; not forecasts archived on historical dates.",
    "units": {
      "yield_2y": "percent per year",
      "yield_10y": "percent per year",
      "spread": "percentage points",
      "index": "index points, 0–1"
    },
    "rights": "DGS2/DGS10: public domain, citation requested. Original aggregation by Comuvia. Source-specific FRED terms apply.",
    "reference_check": "118 completed quarters agree with T10Y2Y within its four-decimal rounding precision; no forecast-skill claim."
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "quarter": "1997Q1",
      "yield_2y": 6.04466667,
      "yield_10y": 6.567,
      "spread": 0.52233333,
      "index": 0.099499,
      "paired_days": 60
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1997Q2",
      "yield_2y": 6.2759375,
      "yield_10y": 6.6996875,
      "spread": 0.42375,
      "index": 0.112853,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1997Q3",
      "yield_2y": 5.90375,
      "yield_10y": 6.2421875,
      "spread": 0.3384375,
      "index": 0.142042,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1997Q4",
      "yield_2y": 5.73451613,
      "yield_10y": 5.90629032,
      "spread": 0.17177419,
      "index": 0.199733,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1998Q1",
      "yield_2y": 5.44967213,
      "yield_10y": 5.59098361,
      "spread": 0.14131148,
      "index": 0.242168,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1998Q2",
      "yield_2y": 5.55809524,
      "yield_10y": 5.59301587,
      "spread": 0.03492063,
      "index": 0.282635,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1998Q3",
      "yield_2y": 5.13609375,
      "yield_10y": 5.20734375,
      "spread": 0.07125,
      "index": 0.334709,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1998Q4",
      "yield_2y": 4.37629032,
      "yield_10y": 4.66193548,
      "spread": 0.28564516,
      "index": 0.399936,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1999Q1",
      "yield_2y": 4.86163934,
      "yield_10y": 5.00081967,
      "spread": 0.13918033,
      "index": 0.454797,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1999Q2",
      "yield_2y": 5.28421875,
      "yield_10y": 5.54125,
      "spread": 0.25703125,
      "index": 0.460858,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1999Q3",
      "yield_2y": 5.63234375,
      "yield_10y": 5.88296875,
      "spread": 0.250625,
      "index": 0.461947,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "1999Q4",
      "yield_2y": 5.94822581,
      "yield_10y": 6.14483871,
      "spread": 0.1966129,
      "index": 0.446497,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2000Q1",
      "yield_2y": 6.52634921,
      "yield_10y": 6.4684127,
      "spread": -0.05793651,
      "index": 0.449076,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2000Q2",
      "yield_2y": 6.57269841,
      "yield_10y": 6.18492063,
      "spread": -0.38777778,
      "index": 0.546827,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2000Q3",
      "yield_2y": 6.21698413,
      "yield_10y": 5.88984127,
      "spread": -0.32714286,
      "index": 0.578677,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2000Q4",
      "yield_2y": 5.71903226,
      "yield_10y": 5.57064516,
      "spread": -0.1483871,
      "index": 0.628568,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2001Q1",
      "yield_2y": 4.58016129,
      "yield_10y": 5.04419355,
      "spread": 0.46403226,
      "index": 0.610196,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2001Q2",
      "yield_2y": 4.19174603,
      "yield_10y": 5.27619048,
      "spread": 1.08444444,
      "index": 0.591077,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2001Q3",
      "yield_2y": 3.67622951,
      "yield_10y": 4.9957377,
      "spread": 1.3195082,
      "index": 0.596832,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2001Q4",
      "yield_2y": 2.86709677,
      "yield_10y": 4.76209677,
      "spread": 1.895,
      "index": 0.609893,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2002Q1",
      "yield_2y": 3.2005,
      "yield_10y": 5.07916667,
      "spread": 1.87866667,
      "index": 0.527047,
      "paired_days": 60
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2002Q2",
      "yield_2y": 3.23390625,
      "yield_10y": 5.10609375,
      "spread": 1.8721875,
      "index": 0.381935,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2002Q3",
      "yield_2y": 2.23875,
      "yield_10y": 4.27234375,
      "spread": 2.03359375,
      "index": 0.369773,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2002Q4",
      "yield_2y": 1.88967742,
      "yield_10y": 4.00483871,
      "spread": 2.11516129,
      "index": 0.364862,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2003Q1",
      "yield_2y": 1.64901639,
      "yield_10y": 3.92,
      "spread": 2.27098361,
      "index": 0.316487,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2003Q2",
      "yield_2y": 1.4215873,
      "yield_10y": 3.62063492,
      "spread": 2.19904762,
      "index": 0.246029,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2003Q3",
      "yield_2y": 1.67828125,
      "yield_10y": 4.22765625,
      "spread": 2.549375,
      "index": 0.187505,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2003Q4",
      "yield_2y": 1.85629032,
      "yield_10y": 4.28516129,
      "spread": 2.42887097,
      "index": 0.140678,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2004Q1",
      "yield_2y": 1.6866129,
      "yield_10y": 4.01,
      "spread": 2.3233871,
      "index": 0.132136,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2004Q2",
      "yield_2y": 2.45467742,
      "yield_10y": 4.59709677,
      "spread": 2.14241935,
      "index": 0.115034,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2004Q3",
      "yield_2y": 2.5565625,
      "yield_10y": 4.30140625,
      "spread": 1.74484375,
      "index": 0.1093,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2004Q4",
      "yield_2y": 2.82241935,
      "yield_10y": 4.17580645,
      "spread": 1.3533871,
      "index": 0.096713,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2005Q1",
      "yield_2y": 3.45491803,
      "yield_10y": 4.30360656,
      "spread": 0.84868852,
      "index": 0.073912,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2005Q2",
      "yield_2y": 3.6459375,
      "yield_10y": 4.15859375,
      "spread": 0.51265625,
      "index": 0.063159,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2005Q3",
      "yield_2y": 3.95796875,
      "yield_10y": 4.21515625,
      "spread": 0.2571875,
      "index": 0.099625,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2005Q4",
      "yield_2y": 4.36459016,
      "yield_10y": 4.48819672,
      "spread": 0.12360656,
      "index": 0.144112,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2006Q1",
      "yield_2y": 4.60467742,
      "yield_10y": 4.57709677,
      "spread": -0.02758065,
      "index": 0.189942,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2006Q2",
      "yield_2y": 4.99793651,
      "yield_10y": 5.07269841,
      "spread": 0.0747619,
      "index": 0.212856,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2006Q3",
      "yield_2y": 4.92904762,
      "yield_10y": 4.89349206,
      "spread": -0.03555556,
      "index": 0.225714,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2006Q4",
      "yield_2y": 4.73758065,
      "yield_10y": 4.63064516,
      "spread": -0.10693548,
      "index": 0.24462,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2007Q1",
      "yield_2y": 4.76048387,
      "yield_10y": 4.67903226,
      "spread": -0.08145161,
      "index": 0.257406,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2007Q2",
      "yield_2y": 4.80375,
      "yield_10y": 4.84609375,
      "spread": 0.04234375,
      "index": 0.2638,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2007Q3",
      "yield_2y": 4.39079365,
      "yield_10y": 4.7384127,
      "spread": 0.34761905,
      "index": 0.292506,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2007Q4",
      "yield_2y": 3.48967742,
      "yield_10y": 4.2666129,
      "spread": 0.77693548,
      "index": 0.328791,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2008Q1",
      "yield_2y": 2.02934426,
      "yield_10y": 3.6652459,
      "spread": 1.63590164,
      "index": 0.380979,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2008Q2",
      "yield_2y": 2.41640625,
      "yield_10y": 3.8815625,
      "spread": 1.46515625,
      "index": 0.387757,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2008Q3",
      "yield_2y": 2.36,
      "yield_10y": 3.8621875,
      "spread": 1.5021875,
      "index": 0.396824,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2008Q4",
      "yield_2y": 1.21548387,
      "yield_10y": 3.23467742,
      "spread": 2.01919355,
      "index": 0.450082,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2009Q1",
      "yield_2y": 0.9042623,
      "yield_10y": 2.73622951,
      "spread": 1.83196721,
      "index": 0.450041,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2009Q2",
      "yield_2y": 1.01761905,
      "yield_10y": 3.32079365,
      "spread": 2.3031746,
      "index": 0.429068,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2009Q3",
      "yield_2y": 1.03,
      "yield_10y": 3.5178125,
      "spread": 2.4878125,
      "index": 0.32686,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2009Q4",
      "yield_2y": 0.87790323,
      "yield_10y": 3.46403226,
      "spread": 2.58612903,
      "index": 0.251438,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2010Q1",
      "yield_2y": 0.91770492,
      "yield_10y": 3.71786885,
      "spread": 2.80016393,
      "index": 0.187326,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2010Q2",
      "yield_2y": 0.873125,
      "yield_10y": 3.4925,
      "spread": 2.619375,
      "index": 0.181249,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2010Q3",
      "yield_2y": 0.53875,
      "yield_10y": 2.78453125,
      "spread": 2.24578125,
      "index": 0.189929,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2010Q4",
      "yield_2y": 0.48709677,
      "yield_10y": 2.8783871,
      "spread": 2.39129032,
      "index": 0.182224,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2011Q1",
      "yield_2y": 0.69370968,
      "yield_10y": 3.45741935,
      "spread": 2.76370968,
      "index": 0.152264,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2011Q2",
      "yield_2y": 0.5615873,
      "yield_10y": 3.20142857,
      "spread": 2.63984127,
      "index": 0.134907,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2011Q3",
      "yield_2y": 0.27921875,
      "yield_10y": 2.41421875,
      "spread": 2.135,
      "index": 0.189274,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2011Q4",
      "yield_2y": 0.26360656,
      "yield_10y": 2.04672131,
      "spread": 1.78311475,
      "index": 0.224407,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2012Q1",
      "yield_2y": 0.28951613,
      "yield_10y": 2.04,
      "spread": 1.75048387,
      "index": 0.203553,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2012Q2",
      "yield_2y": 0.28953125,
      "yield_10y": 1.82578125,
      "spread": 1.53625,
      "index": 0.20497,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2012Q3",
      "yield_2y": 0.25777778,
      "yield_10y": 1.64126984,
      "spread": 1.38349206,
      "index": 0.192127,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2012Q4",
      "yield_2y": 0.26754098,
      "yield_10y": 1.70704918,
      "spread": 1.4395082,
      "index": 0.165354,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2013Q1",
      "yield_2y": 0.26283333,
      "yield_10y": 1.951,
      "spread": 1.68816667,
      "index": 0.153995,
      "paired_days": 60
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2013Q2",
      "yield_2y": 0.27015625,
      "yield_10y": 1.98625,
      "spread": 1.71609375,
      "index": 0.147073,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2013Q3",
      "yield_2y": 0.3659375,
      "yield_10y": 2.7065625,
      "spread": 2.340625,
      "index": 0.135062,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2013Q4",
      "yield_2y": 0.32725806,
      "yield_10y": 2.74419355,
      "spread": 2.41693548,
      "index": 0.124083,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2014Q1",
      "yield_2y": 0.3747541,
      "yield_10y": 2.76540984,
      "spread": 2.39065574,
      "index": 0.116954,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2014Q2",
      "yield_2y": 0.41952381,
      "yield_10y": 2.62095238,
      "spread": 2.20142857,
      "index": 0.104204,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2014Q3",
      "yield_2y": 0.515,
      "yield_10y": 2.49953125,
      "spread": 1.98453125,
      "index": 0.100337,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2014Q4",
      "yield_2y": 0.5366129,
      "yield_10y": 2.27596774,
      "spread": 1.73935484,
      "index": 0.114514,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2015Q1",
      "yield_2y": 0.60459016,
      "yield_10y": 1.96885246,
      "spread": 1.3642623,
      "index": 0.129235,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2015Q2",
      "yield_2y": 0.61265625,
      "yield_10y": 2.164375,
      "spread": 1.55171875,
      "index": 0.139947,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2015Q3",
      "yield_2y": 0.6925,
      "yield_10y": 2.223125,
      "spread": 1.530625,
      "index": 0.179417,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2015Q4",
      "yield_2y": 0.83822581,
      "yield_10y": 2.19048387,
      "spread": 1.35225806,
      "index": 0.204756,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2016Q1",
      "yield_2y": 0.83622951,
      "yield_10y": 1.9142623,
      "spread": 1.07803279,
      "index": 0.236678,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2016Q2",
      "yield_2y": 0.77125,
      "yield_10y": 1.75015625,
      "spread": 0.97890625,
      "index": 0.209745,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2016Q3",
      "yield_2y": 0.728125,
      "yield_10y": 1.564375,
      "spread": 0.83625,
      "index": 0.1812,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2016Q4",
      "yield_2y": 1.0095082,
      "yield_10y": 2.13868852,
      "spread": 1.12918033,
      "index": 0.155474,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2017Q1",
      "yield_2y": 1.24435484,
      "yield_10y": 2.4466129,
      "spread": 1.20225806,
      "index": 0.144907,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2017Q2",
      "yield_2y": 1.29761905,
      "yield_10y": 2.26095238,
      "spread": 0.96333333,
      "index": 0.14059,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2017Q3",
      "yield_2y": 1.36269841,
      "yield_10y": 2.24142857,
      "spread": 0.87873016,
      "index": 0.130019,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2017Q4",
      "yield_2y": 1.69435484,
      "yield_10y": 2.37145161,
      "spread": 0.67709677,
      "index": 0.113136,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2018Q1",
      "yield_2y": 2.1604918,
      "yield_10y": 2.75852459,
      "spread": 0.59803279,
      "index": 0.122521,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2018Q2",
      "yield_2y": 2.47703125,
      "yield_10y": 2.920625,
      "spread": 0.44359375,
      "index": 0.134428,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2018Q3",
      "yield_2y": 2.66587302,
      "yield_10y": 2.92380952,
      "spread": 0.25793651,
      "index": 0.173642,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2018Q4",
      "yield_2y": 2.80278689,
      "yield_10y": 3.04114754,
      "spread": 0.23836066,
      "index": 0.227501,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2019Q1",
      "yield_2y": 2.48508197,
      "yield_10y": 2.65295082,
      "spread": 0.16786885,
      "index": 0.245535,
      "paired_days": 61
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2019Q2",
      "yield_2y": 2.12793651,
      "yield_10y": 2.33888889,
      "spread": 0.21095238,
      "index": 0.247434,
      "paired_days": 63
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2019Q3",
      "yield_2y": 1.6859375,
      "yield_10y": 1.79796875,
      "spread": 0.11203125,
      "index": 0.258499,
      "paired_days": 64
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2019Q4",
      "yield_2y": 1.59112903,
      "yield_10y": 1.79193548,
      "spread": 0.20080645,
      "index": 0.254821,
      "paired_days": 62
    },
    {
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      "yield_2y": 1.08145161,
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