{
 "date": "2026-09-30",
 "reading": 0.291363,
 "regime": "watch",
 "provisional": true,
 "provisional_quarter": "2026Q3",
 "qtd_through": "2026-09-29",
 "leg_freshness": [
  {
   "leg": "the yield curve",
   "through": "2026-09-29"
  },
  {
   "leg": "credit spreads",
   "through": "2026-09-28"
  },
  {
   "leg": "equity volatility",
   "through": "2026-09-28"
  },
  {
   "leg": "equity valuation",
   "through": "2026-08-04"
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 ],
 "staleness": {
  "oldest_leg_through": "2026-08-04",
  "max_age_days": 3,
  "note": "republished with the site, not on a schedule; read the number as of its own date"
 },
 "deltas": {
  "vs_prior_day": null,
  "vs_quarter_open": -0.051155
 },
 "settle_band": {
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  "high": 0.294209
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 "last_settled": {
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  "reading": 0.342518,
  "regime": "watch"
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 "caveat": "model-conditional fragility reading, not a market call; leads credit-cycle drawdowns, not exogenous shocks",
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    "period": "1997Q3",
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    "period": "1997Q4",
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    "period": "1998Q3",
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    "period": "1998Q4",
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    "period": "1999Q1",
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    "period": "1999Q2",
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   {
    "period": "1999Q3",
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    "period": "1999Q4",
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   {
    "period": "2000Q1",
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   {
    "period": "2000Q2",
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   {
    "period": "2000Q3",
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    "period": "2000Q4",
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    "period": "2001Q3",
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    "period": "2001Q4",
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    "period": "2002Q1",
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    "period": "2002Q2",
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   {
    "period": "2002Q3",
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   {
    "period": "2002Q4",
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    "period": "2003Q1",
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   {
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   {
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    "date": "2026-08-07",
    "value": 0.29441,
    "low": 0.279415,
    "high": 0.322407
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-10",
    "value": 0.293761,
    "low": 0.27944,
    "high": 0.321403
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-11",
    "value": 0.293085,
    "low": 0.279457,
    "high": 0.32039
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-12",
    "value": 0.292383,
    "low": 0.278878,
    "high": 0.319327
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-13",
    "value": 0.29172,
    "low": 0.278881,
    "high": 0.318268
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-14",
    "value": 0.290912,
    "low": 0.278411,
    "high": 0.317104
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-17",
    "value": 0.290128,
    "low": 0.278453,
    "high": 0.315947
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-18",
    "value": 0.289495,
    "low": 0.278524,
    "high": 0.314837
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-19",
    "value": 0.289118,
    "low": 0.278553,
    "high": 0.313842
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-20",
    "value": 0.288664,
    "low": 0.278632,
    "high": 0.312792
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-21",
    "value": 0.28816,
    "low": 0.278671,
    "high": 0.31172
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-24",
    "value": 0.287927,
    "low": 0.278743,
    "high": 0.310768
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-25",
    "value": 0.28763,
    "low": 0.278796,
    "high": 0.309781
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-26",
    "value": 0.28732,
    "low": 0.27884,
    "high": 0.308765
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-27",
    "value": 0.286998,
    "low": 0.278851,
    "high": 0.307735
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-28",
    "value": 0.286992,
    "low": 0.278859,
    "high": 0.306912
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-31",
    "value": 0.286955,
    "low": 0.278889,
    "high": 0.306058
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-01",
    "value": 0.287052,
    "low": 0.278983,
    "high": 0.305286
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-02",
    "value": 0.287074,
    "low": 0.279025,
    "high": 0.304479
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-03",
    "value": 0.286902,
    "low": 0.279028,
    "high": 0.303529
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-04",
    "value": 0.286854,
    "low": 0.279041,
    "high": 0.302657
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-07",
    "value": 0.286804,
    "low": 0.279029,
    "high": 0.302501
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-08",
    "value": 0.286817,
    "low": 0.279093,
    "high": 0.30169
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-09",
    "value": 0.286909,
    "low": 0.279191,
    "high": 0.300928
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-10",
    "value": 0.287114,
    "low": 0.279384,
    "high": 0.300263
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-11",
    "value": 0.287396,
    "low": 0.280084,
    "high": 0.29965
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-14",
    "value": 0.287782,
    "low": 0.280875,
    "high": 0.299144
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-15",
    "value": 0.28812,
    "low": 0.281653,
    "high": 0.298608
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-16",
    "value": 0.288676,
    "low": 0.282593,
    "high": 0.298252
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-17",
    "value": 0.289092,
    "low": 0.283451,
    "high": 0.297796
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-18",
    "value": 0.289511,
    "low": 0.284315,
    "high": 0.297889
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-21",
    "value": 0.290076,
    "low": 0.285322,
    "high": 0.298738
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-22",
    "value": 0.290435,
    "low": 0.286164,
    "high": 0.298088
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "value": 0.29081,
    "low": 0.287029,
    "high": 0.297462
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-24",
    "value": 0.291052,
    "low": 0.287794,
    "high": 0.296736
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-25",
    "value": 0.2911,
    "low": 0.288383,
    "high": 0.295835
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-28",
    "value": 0.291311,
    "low": 0.289112,
    "high": 0.295092
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-29",
    "value": 0.291363,
    "low": 0.289715,
    "high": 0.294209
   }
  ],
  "elevated_threshold": 0.4,
  "note": "our computed reading, replayed over the committed record; the 0.40 elevated line is the sealed tripwire's own public criterion"
 },
 "code_sha": "unknown",
 "movement": {
  "note": "Down 0.051 since the quarter opened. Reading calm: the yield curve (the 2022-23 inversion has rolled out of the instrument's memory window), credit spreads, equity volatility. Stretched: equity valuation.",
  "sealed_ref": {
   "id": "pred-2026-07-25-014",
   "text": "This is the path the sealed July tripwire prediction called for: below 0.40 through 2026Q4 as the inversion memory expires. Sealed 2026-07-25, graded 2027-02-28."
  }
 },
 "coverage": {
  "probed": "2026-08-18",
  "required": [
   "term_structure",
   "credit_spread",
   "equity_vol",
   "valuation"
  ],
  "countries": [
   {
    "code": "US",
    "name": "United States",
    "status": "live",
    "have": [
     "term_structure",
     "credit_spread",
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "missing": [],
    "frequency": "daily",
    "note": "the sealed instrument: T10Y2Y, BAA10Y, VIXCLS daily + Shiller CAPE"
   },
   {
    "code": "EA",
    "name": "Euro area",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure",
     "credit_spread"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "mixed",
    "note": "DE term structure monthly (OECD, ~2mo lag) + ICE BofA euro OAS daily; no keyless VSTOXX, no redistributable CAPE"
   },
   {
    "code": "DE",
    "name": "Germany",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure",
     "credit_spread"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "note": "IRLTLT01DEM156N + IR3TIB01DEM156N monthly; credit only as a euro-area aggregate"
   },
   {
    "code": "FR",
    "name": "France",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure",
     "credit_spread"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "note": "10y monthly; short leg + credit only euro-area-wide"
   },
   {
    "code": "IT",
    "name": "Italy",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure",
     "credit_spread"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "note": "10y monthly; short leg + credit only euro-area-wide"
   },
   {
    "code": "ES",
    "name": "Spain",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure",
     "credit_spread"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "note": "10y monthly; short leg + credit only euro-area-wide"
   },
   {
    "code": "GB",
    "name": "United Kingdom",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "credit_spread",
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "note": "10y monthly only; no sterling credit or vol series on the keyless route"
   },
   {
    "code": "JP",
    "name": "Japan",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "credit_spread",
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "note": "10y + 3m monthly (~2mo lag); no yen credit spread or vol index"
   },
   {
    "code": "CA",
    "name": "Canada",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "credit_spread",
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "note": "10y + 3m monthly (~2mo lag); no CAD credit spread or vol index"
   },
   {
    "code": "IN",
    "name": "India",
    "status": "partial",
    "have": [
     "term_structure"
    ],
    "missing": [
     "credit_spread",
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "note": "10y monthly only (INDIRLTLT01STM); no short leg on this route"
   },
   {
    "code": "CN",
    "name": "China",
    "status": "unavailable",
    "have": [],
    "missing": [
     "term_structure",
     "credit_spread",
     "equity_vol",
     "valuation"
    ],
    "frequency": "-",
    "note": "no government-yield route on the keyless endpoint; needs a licensed vendor"
   }
  ],
  "why_not_yet": "A country reading is NOT the US instrument pointed at other data: with two of four legs missing and monthly, lagged inputs it would be a different model with different calibration and its own sealed lanes. Showing one under the same name would be the failure this ledger exists to prevent."
 },
 "projection": "public (conservative pending G-CELL2)"
}