{
  "_schema": "foreglass.verification-ledger/v1",
  "tier": "public",
  "built": "2026-09-09",
  "registry_schema": "foreglass.prediction-registry/v0",
  "seal": {
    "algorithm": "sha256",
    "recipe": "sha256 over the canonical JSON (sorted keys) of the sealed core: id, runtime_id, run_id, metric, kind, predicted, due, criteria (+ model and grounding on tournament lanes)",
    "verifiable_here": "commitment-equality",
    "note": "Two of the sealed core fields (runtime_id, run_id) are internal lineage and are NOT published, so this ledger does not let you recompute a sha from scratch. What it does let you check: the sha published for a lane never changes - the value committed at seal time (in `commitments`, before the outcome was knowable) is the same value published when the lane is released and when it is graded. Snapshot this file at an independent archive to time-witness that."
  },
  "counts": {
    "included": 381,
    "held": 351,
    "withheld": 19
  },
  "lanes": [
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-09-001",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.65 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.65 [2.48\u20132.65] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b14c1e",
      "statement": "US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-09",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.65,
      "lo": 2.48,
      "hi": 2.65,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.65,
        "low": 2.48,
        "high": 2.65
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b14c1ef061b3c8744e24d2c971e87b51352f842d5007f28353ad8d671d5ab752"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-09-002",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.83 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.83 [-1.93\u20130.83] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "6cfa69",
      "statement": "US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-09",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.83,
      "lo": -1.93,
      "hi": 0.83,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.83,
        "low": -1.93,
        "high": 0.83
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6cfa697a43e2fc4d84509c3651d1167b697ad0ac8818638746c364c61963a4e3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-09-003",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "143.99 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "143.99 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "2199da",
      "statement": "AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-09",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 143.99,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2199da4080a56863818fc0b929a7e8e53901514c661c962771266b4e8b626502"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-09-004",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.265e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.265e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "76e00b",
      "statement": "TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-09",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.265e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "76e00b34edb2773086b94ea3f8f76b8983cd1ea85f4fe1312f37a58dd21dec98"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-09-006",
      "metric": "population",
      "due": "2027-07-15",
      "predShort": "8.299 billion people",
      "predFull": "8.299 billion people",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 8.27,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "74e07f",
      "statement": "World population at end-2026 is ~8.30 billion (energy-coupled demography, BAU).",
      "source": "UN World Population Prospects / UN DESA mid-2026-to-2027 estimate (population.un.org)",
      "criteria": "UN WPP estimate for world population at 2026-12-31 (interpolate mid-year figures if needed). Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:population@2027-07-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-09",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 8.299,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "billion people",
      "gkey": "q:population@2027-07-15||point||billion people",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "74e07fdf295e7c66f1dd82671048461f94d5f1ccf67da73f77be483ddc19c643"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-09-007",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "3,125 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "3,125 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "cced0d",
      "statement": "Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-09",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 3125.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "cced0d01cbcbd13cf7622638c47a6aa67467e5bb7367c24b5c6aeccb3fd2c757"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-11-008",
      "metric": "labour_share",
      "due": "2028-01-31",
      "predShort": "0.5981 share of GDP",
      "predFull": "0.5981 share of GDP",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.5683,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "7b32cd",
      "statement": "US labour share (PWT definition, LABSHPUSA) for 2025 is ~0.598 per the slack-channel k-shaped model. Registered WITH a persistence baseline (2023 actual 0.5683) precisely to let the skill score adjudicate: the adoption gate proved the slack channel improves DEVIATION dynamics (+33% OOS), while the level forecast is exp",
      "source": "FRED LABSHPUSA156NRUG (Penn World Table labour share, published with ~2yr lag)",
      "criteria": "LABSHPUSA156NRUG value for observation year 2025 once published. Score = APE + skill vs the persistence baseline.",
      "qid": "q:labour_share@2028-01-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-11",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.5981389377060944,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "share of GDP",
      "gkey": "q:labour_share@2028-01-31||point||share of GDP",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "validated",
      "validation_card_url": "/validation",
      "core_sha256": "7b32cd81de111e63ae1e5f404bc7a28ecec014f146f38733208ca802267b0892"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-19-010",
      "metric": "labour_share",
      "due": "2029-01-31",
      "predShort": "0.5982 share of GDP",
      "predFull": "0.5982 share of GDP",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.5683,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "9527e9",
      "statement": "US labour share (PWT definition, LABSHPUSA) for 2026 is ~0.597 per the slack-channel k-shaped model, refit on the refreshed packs (UNRATE through 2026-06, including the 3 months recovered by the 2026-07-19 pack refresh and the annual seasonal revisions). Registered WITH the same persistence baseline as pred-2026-07-11-",
      "source": "FRED LABSHPUSA156NRUG (Penn World Table labour share, published with ~2yr lag)",
      "criteria": "LABSHPUSA156NRUG value for observation year 2026 once published. Score = APE + skill vs the persistence baseline.",
      "qid": "q:labour_share@2029-01-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-19",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.5982143213972291,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "share of GDP",
      "gkey": "q:labour_share@2029-01-31||point||share of GDP",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "validated",
      "validation_card_url": "/validation",
      "core_sha256": "9527e9388adb9940439028dff147dfafb7d1bdd4fec43cc561589f4894c5baad"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-25-014",
      "metric": "fragility_ema",
      "due": "2027-02-28",
      "predShort": "0.3425 score (0-1)",
      "predFull": "0.3425 [0\u20130.4] score (0-1)",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.4,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "3cbcfc",
      "qid": "q:fragility_ema@2027-02-28",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-25",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.34251813689926597,
      "lo": 0.0,
      "hi": 0.4,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "score",
      "gkey": "q:fragility_ema@2027-02-28||interval||score (0-1)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria",
        "source",
        "statement"
      ],
      "statement": "[sealed text withheld until resolution - editorial summary] The US macro-fragility tripwire stays BELOW its 0.40 elevated criterion through 2026Q4: the 2022-23 yield-curve inversion rolls out of the instrument's memory window while credit spreads stay calm. Interval [0, 0.40) on the smoothed 0-1 score; graded 2027-02-28 from public drivers (Treasury term structure, corporate credit spread, VIX, Shiller CAPE) against a regime-persistence baseline that says the 2022-2026 elevated regime persists at or above 0.40.",
      "core_sha256": "3cbcfc4ab26d991b8591a08771540a3a481bfc17f1ddf64f54e4af7cdd2f97b7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-25-015",
      "metric": "max_fragility_ema_2027_2030_median",
      "due": "2031-02-28",
      "predShort": "0.5421 score (0-1)",
      "predFull": "0.5421 [0.3012\u20130.6904] score (0-1)",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.343,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "30ec6b",
      "qid": "q:max_fragility_ema_2027_2030_median@2031-02-28",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-25",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.542136,
      "lo": 0.3012247459995319,
      "hi": 0.6903830964217946,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "score",
      "gkey": "q:max_fragility_ema_2027_2030_median@2031-02-28||interval||score (0-1)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria",
        "source",
        "statement"
      ],
      "statement": "[sealed text withheld until resolution - editorial summary] Peak quarterly macro-fragility over 2027Q1-2030Q4 lands in the 80% band [0.301, 0.690], central 0.542 - re-entry into ELEVATED (>= 0.40) at least once is the central case (77% of 2,000 bootstrap paths); a 2008-style episode is not. Graded 2031-02-28 from the same public drivers against a no-change baseline (the 2026Q2 reading 0.343 holds as the 2027-2030 maximum).",
      "core_sha256": "30ec6bf9984d1f963f104535f29435b65be2238574c44ee868b860d789323659"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-28-016",
      "metric": "cum_real_wage_pct",
      "due": "2029-02-15",
      "predShort": "50%",
      "predFull": "50% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "59fa0a",
      "statement": "US bottom-decile real weekly earnings regain their 2025Q1 level DURING CALENDAR 2028 - the base case of the bottom-60% squeeze family (documentation/research/k-shaped-bottom60-real-wages-2026-07.md sections 3-4), sealed WITH the family's documented scenario weights 20% optimistic / 50% base / 30% pessimistic: the optim",
      "source": "FRED LEU0252911200Q (usual weekly earnings, first decile, full-time wage and salary workers, quarterly) deflated by quarterly-average CPIAUCSL",
      "criteria": "Real index r(q) = LEU0252911200Q(q) / mean(CPIAUCSL over the three months of q). Baseline = r(2025Q1). Recovery quarter = first quarter q >= 2026Q2 with r(q) >= baseline. Event occurs (actual = 1) iff the recovery quarte",
      "qid": "q:cum_real_wage_pct@2029-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-28",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.5,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:cum_real_wage_pct@2029-02-15||binary||probability (event = first recovery quarter falls in calendar 2028)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "59fa0ae2f625b9e9597d8a823453689323b13eccc2ddde806096a98e5623dd2b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-28-017",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "80%",
      "predFull": "80% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c91ffc",
      "statement": "US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 annual averages. The base run puts the felt basket at +4.60% for 2026 (b",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-28",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c91ffcaf9535e8bcb64cbc93f643441beb9827719f3be69f49c6a91f1fd0568b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-28-018",
      "metric": "insurer_insolvent",
      "due": "2029-03-31",
      "predShort": "90%",
      "predFull": "90% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "70a3d7",
      "statement": "NO US life insurer fails from CLO credit losses through year-end 2028 - the contained base-case implication of the committed CLO-insurer stress pair. The anchor-calibrated base run (a 2020-scale leveraged-loan default wave against today's 38.5% AAA enhancement and the NAIC YE2024 holder map) classifies CONTAINED: write",
      "source": "NAIC / state insurance-regulator public records: receivership, rehabilitation, and liquidation orders for US life insurers (NAIC Global Receivership Information Database; state DOI orders and announcements)",
      "criteria": "Event occurs (actual = 1) iff NO US life insurer is placed into regulatory receivership, rehabilitation, or liquidation with an order date on or before 2028-12-31 where the regulator's public filings or the NAIC GRID rec",
      "qid": "q:insurer_insolvent@2029-03-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-28",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:insurer_insolvent@2029-03-31||binary||probability (event = zero CLO-attributed US life-insurer insolvencies through 2028-12-31)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "core_sha256": "70a3d784e4f1609af49d3df113365f09912c8b5405370e935b65c30cd1ed5b39"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-30-023",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [6.711\u201314.25] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "60b88f",
      "statement": "In the next Z.1/EFA FWTW release, the household sector's share of total Treasury-securities holdings for 2026-Q2 lands within 6.71%..14.25% (share-persistence from the committed 2026-Q1 matrix, 10.48%, widened by 1.5x the max committed quarter-over-quarter move).",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-30",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 6.711,
      "hi": 14.25,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "60b88f608adb14ff5ef48901ef895b8e20451b122580e1ebe870369a88aa3661"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-30-024",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.626 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.626 [29.539\u201333.713] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "e609f5",
      "statement": "In the next Fed DFA release, the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth for 2026-Q2 lands within 29.54%..33.71% (share-persistence from the committed 2026-Q1 pack, 31.63%, widened by 1.5x the max committed quarter-over-quarter move).",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-30",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.626,
      "lo": 29.539,
      "hi": 33.713,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "e609f5a0749fa0eb2384800a8ed8fd297c4e5a7ca15ba136eff9ba4d1c11c6a2"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-07-30-025",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.452 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.452 [1.978\u20132.925] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "aebdd0",
      "statement": "In the next Fed DFA release, the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth for 2026-Q2 lands within 1.98%..2.93% (share-persistence from the committed 2026-Q1 pack, 2.45%, widened by 1.5x the max committed quarter-over-quarter move).",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-30",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.452,
      "lo": 1.978,
      "hi": 2.925,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "aebdd0c7231471e1d5d765a0c7bcfc0fb1dfed6c0629e5d3a296a9f2535d220a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-usmf-unrate-2027",
      "metric": "us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean",
      "due": "2028-02-15",
      "predShort": "5.2 % annual mean",
      "predFull": "5.2 [4.3\u20136.5] % annual mean",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 4.1,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "4a317c",
      "statement": "US Macro Fragility (2026-Q3) proxy \u2014 the fragility read implies elevated labor stress: 2027 US unemployment rate (annual mean) lands in 4.3%-6.5%, central 5.2%.",
      "source": "FRED UNRATE, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of UNRATE monthly observations for calendar 2027; hit if within [4.3, 6.5].",
      "qid": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 5.2,
      "lo": 4.3,
      "hi": 6.5,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% annual mean",
      "gkey": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15||interval||% annual mean",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.UNRATE",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% annual mean",
        "value": 5.2,
        "low": 4.3,
        "high": 6.5
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "validated",
      "validation_card_url": "/validation",
      "core_sha256": "4a317cc28e25d72fb4bbb06cd3e0259fcc3f1edca11344ee109430dea05da95b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-usmf-rgdp-2027",
      "metric": "us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct",
      "due": "2028-04-30",
      "predShort": "0.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "0.6 [-1.5\u20131.8] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.0,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "56a7f6",
      "statement": "US Macro Fragility (2026-Q3) proxy \u2014 fragility implies weak or negative growth: 2027 US real GDP growth (annual) in -1.5% to +1.8%, central +0.6%.",
      "source": "FRED GDPC1, 2027 annual mean vs 2026 annual mean, % change",
      "criteria": "(mean GDPC1 2027 / mean GDPC1 2026 - 1) * 100; hit if within [-1.5, 1.8].",
      "qid": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.6,
      "lo": -1.5,
      "hi": 1.8,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.GDPC1",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-04-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 0.6,
        "low": -1.5,
        "high": 1.8
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "validated",
      "validation_card_url": "/validation",
      "core_sha256": "56a7f6c1a8453614165b7081ada71a137e7779bd9f982c80a35d6f58a40f77e2"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-usmf-tdsp-2027",
      "metric": "us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027",
      "due": "2028-06-30",
      "predShort": "11.9 % of disposable income",
      "predFull": "11.9 [11.2\u201312.6] % of disposable income",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 11.3,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "1326c2",
      "statement": "US Macro Fragility (2026-Q3) proxy \u2014 fragility implies a rising private debt burden: 2027 US household debt-service ratio (TDSP, annual mean) in 11.2%-12.6%, central 11.9%.",
      "source": "FRED TDSP, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of TDSP quarterly observations for calendar 2027; hit if within [11.2, 12.6].",
      "qid": "q:us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027@2028-06-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 11.9,
      "lo": 11.2,
      "hi": 12.6,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% of disposable in",
      "gkey": "q:us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027@2028-06-30||interval||% of disposable income",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.TDSP",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-06-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% of disposable income",
        "value": 11.9,
        "low": 11.2,
        "high": 12.6
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "validated",
      "validation_card_url": "/validation",
      "core_sha256": "1326c2f72855f1a04848e9a3700adfb61746f8bf92b6348ad9196b4f51f28feb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-usmf-recession-2027h1",
      "metric": "us_nber_recession_begins_by_2027q2",
      "due": "2027-12-31",
      "predShort": "55%",
      "predFull": "55% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "4bb8b3",
      "statement": "US Macro Fragility (2026-Q3) \u2014 the fragility read assigns probability 0.55 that an NBER-dated US recession begins on or before 2027-06-30.",
      "source": "NBER business-cycle dating (cross-check FRED USREC)",
      "criteria": "1 if an NBER-dated recession START falls in [2026-07, 2027-06]; else 0. Operator-resolved.",
      "qid": "q:us_nber_recession_begins_by_2027q2@2027-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.55,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "",
      "gkey": "q:us_nber_recession_begins_by_2027q2@2027-12-31||binary||",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "validated",
      "validation_card_url": "/validation",
      "core_sha256": "4bb8b34d6f48f31b91bad64885cc8daac5199bce04d067eefdbba24ba28032b3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-unrate-2027-gpt-5-mini",
      "metric": "us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean",
      "due": "2028-02-15",
      "predShort": "5 % annual mean",
      "predFull": "5 [3.6\u20137] % annual mean",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 4.1,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c0aa96",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 gpt-5-mini's independent interval for: US unemployment rate (FRED UNRATE), calendar-year 2027 annual mean, in percent.",
      "source": "FRED UNRATE, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of UNRATE monthly observations for calendar 2027.",
      "qid": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 5.0,
      "lo": 3.6,
      "hi": 7.0,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% annual mean",
      "gkey": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15||interval||% annual mean",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.UNRATE",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% annual mean",
        "value": 5.0,
        "low": 3.6,
        "high": 7.0
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c0aa96d767b81d06d4b64dd43bea5f9724867a9f0c33d1d5b34d4c98af429585"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-unrate-2027-anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
      "metric": "us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean",
      "due": "2028-02-15",
      "predShort": "4.4 % annual mean",
      "predFull": "4.4 [3.8\u20135.5] % annual mean",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 4.1,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "81c288",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 anthropic:claude-opus-4-8's independent interval for: US unemployment rate (FRED UNRATE), calendar-year 2027 annual mean, in percent.",
      "source": "FRED UNRATE, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of UNRATE monthly observations for calendar 2027.",
      "qid": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 4.4,
      "lo": 3.8,
      "hi": 5.5,
      "model": "claude-opus-4-8",
      "unit": "% annual mean",
      "gkey": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15||interval||% annual mean",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.UNRATE",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% annual mean",
        "value": 4.4,
        "low": 3.8,
        "high": 5.5
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "81c288439099e29651471ffb1701bee6daf7252eb77ff72c324a86653761bb8b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-unrate-2027-kimi-kimi-k3",
      "metric": "us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean",
      "due": "2028-02-15",
      "predShort": "4.4 % annual mean",
      "predFull": "4.4 [3.6\u20136.2] % annual mean",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 4.1,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8eb308",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's independent interval for: US unemployment rate (FRED UNRATE), calendar-year 2027 annual mean, in percent.",
      "source": "FRED UNRATE, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of UNRATE monthly observations for calendar 2027.",
      "qid": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 4.4,
      "lo": 3.6,
      "hi": 6.2,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% annual mean",
      "gkey": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15||interval||% annual mean",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.UNRATE",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% annual mean",
        "value": 4.4,
        "low": 3.6,
        "high": 6.2
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8eb308467fa1eef766a5be502583631a87ee69158913cf309216bc09d44f276f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-unrate-2027-deepseek-deepseek-v4-pro",
      "metric": "us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean",
      "due": "2028-02-15",
      "predShort": "4.5 % annual mean",
      "predFull": "4.5 [3.8\u20135.2] % annual mean",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 4.1,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "dd828d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 deepseek:deepseek-v4-pro's independent interval for: US unemployment rate (FRED UNRATE), calendar-year 2027 annual mean, in percent.",
      "source": "FRED UNRATE, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of UNRATE monthly observations for calendar 2027.",
      "qid": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 4.5,
      "lo": 3.8,
      "hi": 5.2,
      "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "unit": "% annual mean",
      "gkey": "q:us_unemployment_rate_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15||interval||% annual mean",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.UNRATE",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% annual mean",
        "value": 4.5,
        "low": 3.8,
        "high": 5.2
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "dd828d4db8d8aa1290a9c84e693a9364097ac4bdd3a20bc520b1c94ecb5002a1"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-rgdp-2027-gpt-5-mini",
      "metric": "us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct",
      "due": "2028-04-30",
      "predShort": "1.8 % yoy",
      "predFull": "1.8 [-0.5\u20133.5] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.0,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "229b8c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 gpt-5-mini's independent interval for: US real GDP growth for 2027 (2027 annual mean vs 2026 annual mean of FRED GDPC1), in percent.",
      "source": "FRED GDPC1, 2027 vs 2026 annual mean % change",
      "criteria": "(mean GDPC1 2027 / mean GDPC1 2026 - 1) * 100.",
      "qid": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.8,
      "lo": -0.5,
      "hi": 3.5,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.GDPC1",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-04-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 1.8,
        "low": -0.5,
        "high": 3.5
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "229b8c9c6c787bb9b3afb2e91eca67cf8ead0e690301694bea4d282bd9e55b37"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-rgdp-2027-anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
      "metric": "us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct",
      "due": "2028-04-30",
      "predShort": "2 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2 [0.5\u20133.3] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.0,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "0f4325",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 anthropic:claude-opus-4-8's independent interval for: US real GDP growth for 2027 (2027 annual mean vs 2026 annual mean of FRED GDPC1), in percent.",
      "source": "FRED GDPC1, 2027 vs 2026 annual mean % change",
      "criteria": "(mean GDPC1 2027 / mean GDPC1 2026 - 1) * 100.",
      "qid": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.0,
      "lo": 0.5,
      "hi": 3.3,
      "model": "claude-opus-4-8",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.GDPC1",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-04-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.0,
        "low": 0.5,
        "high": 3.3
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0f43252e903b370ed3ca823bae9e8c3dda9347681c4bc105673713db6d0b5b9d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-rgdp-2027-kimi-kimi-k3",
      "metric": "us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct",
      "due": "2028-04-30",
      "predShort": "1.8 % yoy",
      "predFull": "1.8 [-0.5\u20133.5] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.0,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "78c757",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's independent interval for: US real GDP growth for 2027 (2027 annual mean vs 2026 annual mean of FRED GDPC1), in percent.",
      "source": "FRED GDPC1, 2027 vs 2026 annual mean % change",
      "criteria": "(mean GDPC1 2027 / mean GDPC1 2026 - 1) * 100.",
      "qid": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.8,
      "lo": -0.5,
      "hi": 3.5,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.GDPC1",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-04-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 1.8,
        "low": -0.5,
        "high": 3.5
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "78c757b3f79d5176367684fb1dde4415ad6be6290a84263a203cfcf089edc86e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-rgdp-2027-deepseek-deepseek-v4-pro",
      "metric": "us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct",
      "due": "2028-04-30",
      "predShort": "2 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2 [1.2\u20132.8] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.0,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "bc275c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 deepseek:deepseek-v4-pro's independent interval for: US real GDP growth for 2027 (2027 annual mean vs 2026 annual mean of FRED GDPC1), in percent.",
      "source": "FRED GDPC1, 2027 vs 2026 annual mean % change",
      "criteria": "(mean GDPC1 2027 / mean GDPC1 2026 - 1) * 100.",
      "qid": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.0,
      "lo": 1.2,
      "hi": 2.8,
      "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:us_real_gdp_growth_2027_pct@2028-04-30||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.GDPC1",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-04-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.0,
        "low": 1.2,
        "high": 2.8
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "bc275cac5f350efae737ab53674658cc0edad21fe3c4d3cbb66f962c8b755127"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-tdsp-2027-gpt-5-mini",
      "metric": "us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027",
      "due": "2028-06-30",
      "predShort": "12 % of DPI",
      "predFull": "12 [9.5\u201314] % of DPI",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 11.3,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "95b3f7",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 gpt-5-mini's independent interval for: US household debt-service ratio (FRED TDSP), calendar-2027 annual mean, in percent of disposable income.",
      "source": "FRED TDSP, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of TDSP quarterly observations for calendar 2027.",
      "qid": "q:us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027@2028-06-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 12.0,
      "lo": 9.5,
      "hi": 14.0,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% of DPI",
      "gkey": "q:us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027@2028-06-30||interval||% of DPI",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.TDSP",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-06-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% of DPI",
        "value": 12.0,
        "low": 9.5,
        "high": 14.0
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "95b3f719785c2dde47f13f0782a753a5991bf913c366bc6e8bebeb8fd05f1525"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-tdsp-2027-anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
      "metric": "us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027",
      "due": "2028-06-30",
      "predShort": "10.6 % of DPI",
      "predFull": "10.6 [9.5\u201311.8] % of DPI",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 11.3,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "90dedf",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 anthropic:claude-opus-4-8's independent interval for: US household debt-service ratio (FRED TDSP), calendar-2027 annual mean, in percent of disposable income.",
      "source": "FRED TDSP, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of TDSP quarterly observations for calendar 2027.",
      "qid": "q:us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027@2028-06-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.6,
      "lo": 9.5,
      "hi": 11.8,
      "model": "claude-opus-4-8",
      "unit": "% of DPI",
      "gkey": "q:us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027@2028-06-30||interval||% of DPI",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.TDSP",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-06-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% of DPI",
        "value": 10.6,
        "low": 9.5,
        "high": 11.8
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "90dedf487c1d91b39a4d61bf9160d49357dfb86b4ed026259129fbb1d11fe003"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-08-tourney-tdsp-2027-deepseek-deepseek-v4-pro",
      "metric": "us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027",
      "due": "2028-06-30",
      "predShort": "11.5 % of DPI",
      "predFull": "11.5 [10.8\u201312.2] % of DPI",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 11.3,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "ee370c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament \u2014 deepseek:deepseek-v4-pro's independent interval for: US household debt-service ratio (FRED TDSP), calendar-2027 annual mean, in percent of disposable income.",
      "source": "FRED TDSP, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of TDSP quarterly observations for calendar 2027.",
      "qid": "q:us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027@2028-06-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-08",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 11.5,
      "lo": 10.8,
      "hi": 12.2,
      "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "unit": "% of DPI",
      "gkey": "q:us_household_debt_service_ratio_2027@2028-06-30||interval||% of DPI",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.TDSP",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-06-30",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% of DPI",
        "value": 11.5,
        "low": 10.8,
        "high": 12.2
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "ee370c2ebd57428880265ea990c0b1e2b8eccecbd05b18af37ebf8e0342a0f9b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-09-sfr-vix-2027",
      "metric": "us_equity_vol_vix_2027_annual_mean",
      "due": "2028-02-15",
      "predShort": "21 VIX index, annual mean",
      "predFull": "21 [16\u201328] VIX index, annual mean",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 17.0,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "1c59cd",
      "statement": "Systemic Fragility Radar (2026-Q3, SFI 0.47 ELEVATED, propagation-led) proxy \u2014 stretched valuation + latent balance-sheet amplification imply a modest volatility pickup: 2027 US equity volatility (VIXCLS annual mean) in 16-28, central 21.",
      "source": "FRED VIXCLS, calendar-2027 annual mean",
      "criteria": "mean of VIXCLS daily observations for calendar 2027; hit if within [16, 28].",
      "qid": "q:us_equity_vol_vix_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-09",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 21.0,
      "lo": 16.0,
      "hi": 28.0,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "VIX index, annual ",
      "gkey": "q:us_equity_vol_vix_2027_annual_mean@2028-02-15||interval||VIX index, annual mean",
      "obsKey": "annual_mean.VIXCLS",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2028-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "VIX index, annual mean",
        "value": 21.0,
        "low": 16.0,
        "high": 28.0
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "core_sha256": "1c59cde250b9ab5cbec6052d898a6d35064c3494f4080fd179b2c9e0fa5d1348"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-09-sfr-drawdown-2027q4",
      "metric": "sp500_drawdown_20pct_by_2027q4",
      "due": "2028-01-31",
      "predShort": "35%",
      "predFull": "35% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.25,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "648716",
      "statement": "Systemic Fragility Radar (2026-Q3, ELEVATED) \u2014 probability 0.35 that the S&P 500 undergoes a >=20% peak-to-trough drawdown (monthly-close basis) with the trough on or before 2027-12-31. Modestly above the ~0.25 base rate; the read is elevated, not a crash call.",
      "source": "FRED SP500 (S&P 500 monthly close)",
      "criteria": "1 if max peak-to-trough decline of the monthly-close S&P 500 over [2026-07, 2027-12] >= 20% with the trough month <= 2027-12; else 0. Operator-resolved.",
      "qid": "q:sp500_drawdown_20pct_by_2027q4@2028-01-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-09",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.35,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "",
      "gkey": "q:sp500_drawdown_20pct_by_2027q4@2028-01-31||binary||",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "core_sha256": "648716afb318a43fc04a6043da58ec07bb92040d52dfb3cf79b37d2993bf97ba"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-10-065",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.601 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.601 [2.235\u20133.047] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "7c27c2",
      "statement": "v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-component rates + wage growth). Replaces the v1 two-scenario span [2.48, 2.",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-10",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6006,
      "lo": 2.2348,
      "hi": 3.0468,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6006,
        "low": 2.2348,
        "high": 3.0468
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "7c27c217a5c61864dd9d888f8032b7e375e014716fdbc69f7573a65f8284f8bc"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-10-066",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.9704 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.9704 [0.0908\u20131.722] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8380e7",
      "statement": "v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components + wage growth). Replaces the v1 two-scenario span [-1.93, 0.83] with a",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-10",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.9704,
      "lo": 0.0908,
      "hi": 1.7221,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.9704,
        "low": 0.0908,
        "high": 1.7221
      },
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8380e744ccfb219a0357d83314f45442ac439703157ccff8dda35aa5f98e477e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-11-067",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.188\u201311.569] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "fcf0da",
      "statement": "v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-quarter signed changes (n=32). Replaces the v1 heurist",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-11",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.188,
      "hi": 11.569,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "fcf0da62788ea739d7bbbd5011dddaa488ee46ec6fc1efe9cb90132bbb3a1e70"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-11-068",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.626 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.626 [31.32\u201332.063] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "6dcfd2",
      "statement": "v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-quarter signed changes (n=146). Replaces the v1 heuristic 1.5x-max-mo",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-11",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.626,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.063,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "6dcfd21e889cd419dfe6aa299c28ccadd6aedb7fb1c43ec79e3e8ce3c224fe8b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-11-069",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.452 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.452 [2.339\u20132.557] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "f3e22d",
      "statement": "v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-quarter signed changes (n=146). Replaces the v1 heuristic 1.5x-max-m",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-11",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.452,
      "lo": 2.339,
      "hi": 2.557,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "f3e22d82bdc65ff2921c22b6656abc111c40bee5fe8aad4f6c6c878e3c64ff02"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-16-306",
      "metric": "crisis_hazard_spiral_1y",
      "due": "2027-08-16",
      "predShort": "0%",
      "predFull": "0% probability &middot; CI95 [0.0, 0.0074]",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.147,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "24f85d",
      "statement": "CrisisHazard: P(debt-deflation spiral within 1y of 2026-08-16) = 0.0 (CI95 [0.0, 0.0074]), from the keen family under parameter x calibrated-path uncertainty. MODEL-CONDITIONAL and likely an UNDERESTIMATE of real-world stress probability (the CH-6 ABC refusal is cited in provenance); graded by Brier against the stress_",
      "source": "stress_regime_composite_v1 (data/predictions/oracles.json)",
      "criteria": "Outcome = 1 if stress_regime_composite_v1 (HY OAS >= 8.0pp for 5 consecutive days OR SPX intraday-to-close drawdown >= 20% OR NBER recession announced) fires at ANY point in (2026-08-16, 2027-08-16]; else 0. Brier = (pro",
      "qid": "",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-16",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.0,
      "lo": 0.0,
      "hi": 0.0074,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "||binary||probability (event = composite stress oracle fires at any point within 1y)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "core_sha256": "24f85d4d33001dc2d4c041f78f25bd1d1c9258dcddaeb55abe8c1835b059fb91"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-16-307",
      "metric": "crisis_hazard_spiral_5y",
      "due": "2031-08-16",
      "predShort": "0%",
      "predFull": "0% probability &middot; CI95 [0.0, 0.0074]",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.548,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "b5bf4e",
      "statement": "CrisisHazard: P(debt-deflation spiral within 5y of 2026-08-16) = 0.0 (CI95 [0.0, 0.0074]), from the keen family under parameter x calibrated-path uncertainty. MODEL-CONDITIONAL and likely an UNDERESTIMATE of real-world stress probability (the CH-6 ABC refusal is cited in provenance); graded by Brier against the stress_",
      "source": "stress_regime_composite_v1 (data/predictions/oracles.json)",
      "criteria": "Outcome = 1 if stress_regime_composite_v1 (HY OAS >= 8.0pp for 5 consecutive days OR SPX intraday-to-close drawdown >= 20% OR NBER recession announced) fires at ANY point in (2026-08-16, 2031-08-16]; else 0. Brier = (pro",
      "qid": "",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-16",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.0,
      "lo": 0.0,
      "hi": 0.0074,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "||binary||probability (event = composite stress oracle fires at any point within 5y)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "core_sha256": "b5bf4e31cc0b4ece605578a4c6d16f4bf5a3e568490d4c7ea381f6d7100b2dbb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-16-308",
      "metric": "crisis_hazard_spiral_10y",
      "due": "2036-08-16",
      "predShort": "0%",
      "predFull": "0% probability &middot; CI95 [0.0, 0.0074]",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.796,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "567cf1",
      "statement": "CrisisHazard: P(debt-deflation spiral within 10y of 2026-08-16) = 0.0 (CI95 [0.0, 0.0074]), from the keen family under parameter x calibrated-path uncertainty. MODEL-CONDITIONAL and likely an UNDERESTIMATE of real-world stress probability (the CH-6 ABC refusal is cited in provenance); graded by Brier against the stress",
      "source": "stress_regime_composite_v1 (data/predictions/oracles.json)",
      "criteria": "Outcome = 1 if stress_regime_composite_v1 (HY OAS >= 8.0pp for 5 consecutive days OR SPX intraday-to-close drawdown >= 20% OR NBER recession announced) fires at ANY point in (2026-08-16, 2036-08-16]; else 0. Brier = (pro",
      "qid": "",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-16",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.0,
      "lo": 0.0,
      "hi": 0.0074,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "||binary||probability (event = composite stress oracle fires at any point within 10y)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "core_sha256": "567cf1a6596873eaa42b87ab9241a9e7946a5910157f496fd44570c078912e97"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-16-309",
      "metric": "crisis_hazard_spiral_25y",
      "due": "2051-08-16",
      "predShort": "0.39%",
      "predFull": "0.39% probability &middot; CI95 [0.0011, 0.0141]",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "engine",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.981,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "e8b4e0",
      "statement": "CrisisHazard: P(debt-deflation spiral within 25y of 2026-08-16) = 0.0039 (CI95 [0.0011, 0.0141]), from the keen family under parameter x calibrated-path uncertainty. MODEL-CONDITIONAL and likely an UNDERESTIMATE of real-world stress probability (the CH-6 ABC refusal is cited in provenance); graded by Brier against the ",
      "source": "stress_regime_composite_v1 (data/predictions/oracles.json)",
      "criteria": "Outcome = 1 if stress_regime_composite_v1 (HY OAS >= 8.0pp for 5 consecutive days OR SPX intraday-to-close drawdown >= 20% OR NBER recession announced) fires at ANY point in (2026-08-16, 2051-08-16]; else 0. Brier = (pro",
      "qid": "",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-16",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.0039,
      "lo": 0.0011,
      "hi": 0.0141,
      "model": "ForeGlass",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "||binary||probability (event = composite stress oracle fires at any point within 25y)",
      "arm_label": "",
      "validation_status": "model-conditional",
      "caveat": "MODEL-CONDITIONAL: a systemic-hazard probability from a simulation whose regime assumptions are not themselves resolvable. It is graded against a pre-registered, publicly checkable oracle - but read it as this model's conditional hazard, not a forecast of the world.",
      "caveat_id": "crisis-hazard-model-conditional",
      "core_sha256": "e8b4e02df7a67dea9172509f8452c256b5137c81c49d68c63e54af3bd1c426a8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.25\u201311.65] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "0006cd",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed his",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.25,
      "hi": 11.65,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0006cd334349ae694230d3b0fbb53a8eaced0ff2954c2c0bdbd536b736bd3fd3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.34\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "83b658",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-quar",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.34,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "83b6581dedc42f93ec3e4bc7cf37dd06223fe745aa9c81dec05fc185102e1533"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.63 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.63 [31.32\u201332.06] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a68f0b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-quart",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.63,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.06,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "a68f0bdc17974d62d9049d9075b9ca1a0609682df6f9fb69a136ccc979956d6f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.2e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.2e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "0987b5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.2e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0987b5783cf33e9858980bac75a9e339490728beb005fc456c61a9fad128f812"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.399 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.399 [0.358\u20130.439] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "315ebf",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Val",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.399,
      "lo": 0.358,
      "hi": 0.439,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "315ebf8579f6b35cbe72659beab053e458133b7067657c6141862f3a7762edbe"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "75%",
      "predFull": "75% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "284065",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 annual ave",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.75,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "28406514b81d43913ab5aaa890f5b04d1d3ec5271801175490fc97933ec4565f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.61 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.61 [2.5\u20132.7] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b00e93",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.61,
      "lo": 2.5,
      "hi": 2.7,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.61,
        "low": 2.5,
        "high": 2.7
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b00e93e936afe6d8a9faca61e567acfc3e36de3292d1c325fb335a05df1fc874"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.45 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.45 [9.25\u201311.55] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "219551",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.45,
      "lo": 9.25,
      "hi": 11.55,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "219551d939ed774b0077ccda1cba76a4e355e296d49fc9e8f03c3f96c1c3ce67"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.35\u20132.55] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "adbb7f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.35,
      "hi": 2.55,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "adbb7f01fa9212218d3473fb5e5026578f7ebfc7e69edf647cb9a90c00b71073"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.65 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.65 [31.35\u201332.05] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "5a1756",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-q",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.65,
      "lo": 31.35,
      "hi": 32.05,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "5a17564a8ae56e95e616f7e19fe9ea5b6e80312fa597dfdb4c58661356db321c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.3e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.3e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "1730af",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.3e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "1730af26a8d729a0bf61b5645bf8c78f5821a3865351085d656382c7ca92c541"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.4 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.4 [0.36\u20130.45] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "a225cb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.4,
      "lo": 0.36,
      "hi": 0.45,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a225cb1c00857ac6794be34f86a0cce748f7fc4494c4f7e3fd73dc82f77fc6bc"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "80%",
      "predFull": "80% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b30a96",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 annual",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b30a96fb052e9dd22ab8bb9955867a7bbcfad5942f8f2aeb42b1931974d1007c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.5\u20132.7] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "dc9c77",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.5,
      "hi": 2.7,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.5,
        "high": 2.7
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "dc9c77330bce2b0f86dcbaadef0df14f9ef4d5c306028704774e69c26b4f2924"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.19\u201311.57] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8677dc",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.19,
      "hi": 11.57,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8677dcfcdcf7a49e9c4a9a1c571fa3e7e0366a5bb01cc93dc5f94e19d58a28d1"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.34\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "09b039",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed hist",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.34,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "09b0394eca8abeb9ad48a00bcaeb2b918659b58175faa232fa28cc4f794c9a67"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.63 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.63 [31.32\u201332.06] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "607522",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed histo",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.63,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.06,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "607522c7bf8f6fe720e5ca5fe8671e108b7d60bbe5c0c2ea90717992f9d0a86c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.27e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.27e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "bc6a56",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.27e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "bc6a56691880dd991e6518f0881e4668a4e91491f6f2eb24d577ac5066b17fb5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.399 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.399 [0.35\u20130.46] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "c647b0",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions,",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.399,
      "lo": 0.35,
      "hi": 0.46,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c647b0d7ca76eb0afa900be3cb40c2f100577d655b87c55aed376be6e563deca"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "80%",
      "predFull": "80% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "aa1c0c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 20",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "aa1c0c112fefe6c7f1e023daf7aa6d03cede3dc3b72d8dee2c6915f4ea42ac5b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.5\u20132.7] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "3fc345",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.5,
      "hi": 2.7,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.5,
        "high": 2.7
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "3fc34552c99c9b532c9280c5c70b56975ec19d496d1abdc74532f0813bd347da"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.55 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.55 [10.15\u201310.95] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "00a323",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the commit",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.55,
      "lo": 10.15,
      "hi": 10.95,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "00a323c77b1da39ed376a2696c88b5d8437d9dd4c84e3d5a08218113d012d0f2"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.48 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.48 [2.4\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b7c58f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.48,
      "lo": 2.4,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "b7c58fb3a446b1f4e717f97c65e9749fb04ee6f711ffb00b7f3cdb4a92d6cfe1"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.25 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.25 [30.85\u201331.65] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8e1ab3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.25,
      "lo": 30.85,
      "hi": 31.65,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "8e1ab3ecceaac68b5e8c600013a327f9eca97bf934f7b37b066abb5ac07b5f32"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "1.95e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "1.95e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "2347fa",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.95e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2347fa383c96479e270c79b43943b5a8cb8bee84e37cbc20e3390b0250446528"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.395 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.395 [0.375\u20130.415] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "7b3c04",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Produ",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.395,
      "lo": 0.375,
      "hi": 0.415,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "7b3c04a7552353f4096fb7da898555d2c0ff31eeb4bd16924ae95b9ecf675fe6"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "72%",
      "predFull": "72% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c873e5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 ann",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.72,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c873e5f79d591f0ba62cb733288cf9dd575abd57cc48d4747d333c32b6176a73"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.7 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.7 [2.3\u20133.1] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b08984",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.7,
      "lo": 2.3,
      "hi": 3.1,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.7,
        "low": 2.3,
        "high": 3.1
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b089845b585731cccc4cfd581e8220ee65647fd9d61721e05c7e7e0e6143da98"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.19\u201311.57] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "264628",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.19,
      "hi": 11.57,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2646282e58e1d7fc8d592e5eca16d0e5b6bdf9385b634115829db0e9d3a6ae5a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.34\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "9069e2",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.34,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "9069e2c9329694cf0001c7ccd8614a5c7bada1a5dd96ca04e8ba1cb5ff1e8031"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.63 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.63 [31.32\u201332.06] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a2beb5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.63,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.06,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "a2beb533c81ba19451cea974f47b24d649987e2242c37951f3191146227f5bdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.27e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.27e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "20f012",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.27e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "20f012fb8d0e601c4b613ab373037d399fb0297ac43e5cc84aa0043483a84317"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.399 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.399 [0.35\u20130.46] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "c9cbdb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Produc",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.399,
      "lo": 0.35,
      "hi": 0.46,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c9cbdb34f67657b44f8490d2c7e23c25fc43bcb53878ddcfb6eadaa2ca670cf5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "80%",
      "predFull": "80% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d62d4d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 annu",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d62d4d06b1d3660817da1d43ac2f9a63d3aa8b3e67deb42f20d93f0bf6d36faf"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.5\u20132.7] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8cf574",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.5,
      "hi": 2.7,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.5,
        "high": 2.7
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8cf5748d2c62af70691708be9fe9d2611d7ed9178bbec2d8e7939d6fb06046e6"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.19\u201311.57] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b52890",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed h",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.19,
      "hi": 11.57,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b5289090ef3c448fcf1c4f18e8179ab54ff9d4cb963573fafad508032dada90c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.34\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "88bc80",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-qu",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.34,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "88bc8069b4c3efa4f4847220aeb91c65d87a04af342f0f07d7684dd5f68030b0"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.63 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.63 [31.32\u201332.06] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8086e7",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-qua",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.63,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.06,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "8086e74b93d89fe4a66e4f600ebfca2ac052f1187cd219b4b1a98e88e26f45dc"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "1.35e19 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "1.35e19 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "64780b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.35e+19,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "64780b40286790f7fa4f740bb72f28a79551c684fb05752ed0e7ca591a0127ec"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.397 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.397 [0.378\u20130.418] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "89ce87",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer V",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.397,
      "lo": 0.378,
      "hi": 0.418,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "89ce87cee824501e72aeb606f1cc00339193cc0c9fe3d5b805ac1793f6ad40e4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "80%",
      "predFull": "80% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "290e8d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 annual a",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "290e8d5be6abec1e33d3b652d4b71c2047abb525b0e78f34c8e7242bce137392"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "3.9 % yoy",
      "predFull": "3.9 [3.3\u20134.6] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a29b97",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 3.9,
      "lo": 3.3,
      "hi": 4.6,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 3.9,
        "low": 3.3,
        "high": 4.6
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a29b9750fe5f9455fe79d836169265648b2f866dd54fbdf5746f97d9e3d3af48"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.24\u20133.05] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "6de73a",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-component r",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.24,
      "hi": 3.05,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.24,
        "high": 3.05
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6de73ab0d2e2c92013b3f44726c9821696b22a09e59613bb86c9153f143fbfa4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1 [0\u20131.8] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "3cdcfa",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.0,
      "lo": 0.0,
      "hi": 1.8,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.0,
        "low": 0.0,
        "high": 1.8
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "3cdcfaeb17f1ce72b2e3bfdb5b8d37f9b167545e36dd3b447e2b4e71a419a600"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.97 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.97 [0.09\u20131.72] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "e2c71d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components + wage",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.97,
      "lo": 0.09,
      "hi": 1.72,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.97,
        "low": 0.09,
        "high": 1.72
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "e2c71d4af4eb033ef249a69f302cab1d3b69e784312b8e4d98b24bc712e9d2b2"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "140 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "140 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "168ff9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 140.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "168ff97346a1a6176e993be3ec49fd4c4298f5b0d1dabf5a5b3eb40aa618dd3e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,500 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,500 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "280333",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2500.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "280333422b8e6086e3ec757985548fa3dfe5dba7b14ec6797c78452498844981"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.7 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.7 [2.3\u20133.1] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d48525",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-compone",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.7,
      "lo": 2.3,
      "hi": 3.1,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.7,
        "low": 2.3,
        "high": 3.1
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d48525dba51ec55990c8b776efb3f914bef9dd716a76947c6ec98c328705e353"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.4 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.4 [-0.5\u20131.2] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "abc1a8",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.4,
      "lo": -0.5,
      "hi": 1.2,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.4,
        "low": -0.5,
        "high": 1.2
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "abc1a822f0bcef78e299a9aea72c6f68c20566d3f2bd9b7aa6ee3c1435fd5d3f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.9 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.9 [0.2\u20131.6] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "0f10e9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components + ",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": 0.2,
      "hi": 1.6,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.9,
        "low": 0.2,
        "high": 1.6
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0f10e9d15d29cd21df269fc2a5c8bb17a40ae99faccf2a46ea31f729ec1316e7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "140 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "140 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "613633",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 140.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "613633c47d17ab1286b966d5c11295d46c1caa8e9d9f34e4efac87d226d53083"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "3,100 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "3,100 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "66e103",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 3100.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "66e10379f148c2b9ba6e68bfc8e6cc8d17000d2bc61674614237c36a3104316e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.24\u20133.05] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "5f2cc5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflatio",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.24,
      "hi": 3.05,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.24,
        "high": 3.05
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "5f2cc56e60f819efeb9444872d55a6a485e73fcb72e343edefd85cc0a1b35ee7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "-0.55 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "-0.55 [-1.9\u20130.8] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "9c7872",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": -0.55,
      "lo": -1.9,
      "hi": 0.8,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": -0.55,
        "low": -1.9,
        "high": 0.8
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "9c787225ff8b4956c0f465bca1feacceb4068b052f41e761185b04ba99b2e33a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.97 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.97 [0.09\u20131.72] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "bd2bf1",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation comp",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.97,
      "lo": 0.09,
      "hi": 1.72,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.97,
        "low": 0.09,
        "high": 1.72
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "bd2bf11bd09c98b5dada7e64399434eb5c871c61cced04903c2f47f289ea591c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "144 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "144 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "90274f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 144.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "90274f26fbb64c015e893ae16e660ca9125dd72dd5164bf511b0e041e186efe2"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "3,100 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "3,100 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "fae76e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 3100.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "fae76e6bbcfca88c07a46040d259a5b6d12845e633393ea3b2d8d1c94400264a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.1\u20133.1] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b774ec",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-comp",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.1,
      "hi": 3.1,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.1,
        "high": 3.1
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b774ec7d01fcec95ab30233517ca83bd62893e2899c3a2b39ce7e354da14c0ee"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1 [-0.5\u20132.5] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "88603a",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.0,
      "lo": -0.5,
      "hi": 2.5,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.0,
        "low": -0.5,
        "high": 2.5
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "88603a6c38b6ca9b643d209509271019f768f95c39a5b29e3f076faad57396e4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.9 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.9 [0\u20132] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8261e8",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": 0.0,
      "hi": 2.0,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.9,
        "low": 0.0,
        "high": 2.0
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8261e816293b0830505c3f2a8a937a484e60624e2426615912db86f24897511f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "138 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "138 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "46bb54",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 138.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "46bb54e5561738569bc6e49a0f2b0452cf567fe63d14381e3d305ae0f2a0fcdb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,850 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,850 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "f8d37c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2850.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f8d37cf474fec96a8e84006304b026ff6a6d9f10965510f8df6d3ffe11af471e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.5 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.5 [1.9\u20133.1] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d4c4a2",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-compo",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.5,
      "lo": 1.9,
      "hi": 3.1,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.5,
        "low": 1.9,
        "high": 3.1
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d4c4a296883cc79faeb67cd8fc049cc6c9d2d4935d7a3975012fec93600163ee"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.1 [-0.3\u20132.3] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a87d57",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.1,
      "lo": -0.3,
      "hi": 2.3,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.1,
        "low": -0.3,
        "high": 2.3
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a87d5734cb8cf7e4415f04c858076941dd83d1c131efb6b4f5d3a95e4e4dcfeb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.05 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.05 [0.1\u20132] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "03c5c1",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components ",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.05,
      "lo": 0.1,
      "hi": 2.0,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.05,
        "low": 0.1,
        "high": 2.0
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "03c5c18ca29edbdc0a4476a4c01e71f33038440c0fd4e93f9cd06d0504d76c38"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "148 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "148 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "1c59cb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 148.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "1c59cb6edbe6f352f74b3182b82299ce316efc1828b10bc9f4f5d7b53bb75eaa"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,750 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,750 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "6887da",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2750.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6887da3dc06b7183819ada48b761d3b6aeaff8a2f46ae58132e56e8d60192c43"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.62 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.62 [2.2\u20133.05] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "9c4adb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-component",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.62,
      "lo": 2.2,
      "hi": 3.05,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.62,
        "low": 2.2,
        "high": 3.05
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "9c4adb7cc259b70194dec336cbb5a3212c9ee4db1dd663c420d8efba4d5af7aa"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1 [0.1\u20131.8] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c58e53",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.0,
      "lo": 0.1,
      "hi": 1.8,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.0,
        "low": 0.1,
        "high": 1.8
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c58e5352e03c552ece8e1332a4ce1b770ac4a0556a485cbc76b11f238fe4bb25"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1 [0.1\u20131.8] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "ff8f4c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components + wa",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.0,
      "lo": 0.1,
      "hi": 1.8,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.0,
        "low": 0.1,
        "high": 1.8
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "ff8f4cd30977dbaff8d5ada1dafafb5d180f171c00d1112bb7e70ac1d300ba0a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "290 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "290 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "bd20c9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 290.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "bd20c979f26ad3640adbdf02e51dc9e614411bf0cfd5e5c20f8a3f69248f1d0c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "3,020 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "3,020 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "b30462",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 3020.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b304624e784de7ebdcb6b3850fcee1f62366c2ae467b90e083709e56b35651f3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.22\u201311.57] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "0fa4e5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed histor",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.219999999999999,
      "hi": 11.57,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0fa4e5b305afc6691a0a21226a69ca91abcaf2542fb0bf421c0a730d483bb4a0"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.522 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.522 [10.203\u201310.841] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "38bcf6",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the commit",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.522245870435826,
      "lo": 10.20311813972723,
      "hi": 10.841373601144422,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "38bcf6ec58f94906849f85d877e4d301140ce9b0e095a35931ca087aa11628c7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.22\u201311.565] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "df32b4",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.219999999999999,
      "hi": 11.565000000000001,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "df32b4652fb90d4131417fd529e765ed30dcea6abdbfab66c44fc315d6472452"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.34\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8625cb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-quarter",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.34,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "8625cbb09f775fee4a1ee1d5aa015eb577d8bc9900e753010864ca8e8beb19f5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.458 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.458 [2.417\u20132.499] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "94e3db",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.457987853181938,
      "lo": 2.4167074056858153,
      "hi": 2.499268300678061,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "94e3db326599333bb7b5f3ce93b798e4adc87582e155cf4af3bfe1893b0d7fb9"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.342\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "e3fcac",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-q",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.3425,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "e3fcac16480a716914ce8cb1b4deb2ea4c84d6d146352eec77f4cfb11b7cd8d0"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.63 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.63 [31.32\u201332.06] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "561c37",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-quarter ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.63,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.06,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "561c37ca39a2b1a5f179dff4b5e5025c4e9067618a229b25f4ee9a7fb1c05364"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.579 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.579 [31.428\u201331.731] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a0b4e9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.57930896418299,
      "lo": 31.427918309316404,
      "hi": 31.730699619049574,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "a0b4e9adf15545ad345ba78ebc86a429e2f40f7affc1a25868d1b2e57fe054a9"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.63 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.63 [31.32\u201332.058] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d1b30b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical 1-qu",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.63,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.057500000000005,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "d1b30b4e1f8eec946564c52e1a8b2bd79756c20428507e143a43e4181e90f8af"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.27e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.27e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "a545fe",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.27e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a545fea8c1556740bfdcc4bd72940eac5cf684560c9b90c5bc042270738165a2"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "4.082e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "4.082e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "d6c914",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 4.0816666666666665e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d6c914dc4490fa9d561ef24fb1a6c5efd4afd867440b08e452bb1a9722c3c676"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.26e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.26e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "e3220a",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.26e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "e3220a14882c440a95d020d1cf824b83d9998ebd3aa0ae647e534a25407a145a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.399 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.399 [0.359\u20130.4445] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "62cd4b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value)",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.399,
      "lo": 0.359,
      "hi": 0.4445,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "62cd4bada0b8cee657930ad0a4fb60be936222ff07b937615e02dfae594e0ce4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3969 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3969 [0.3847\u20130.409] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "cd2323",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Produ",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.39685559067654197,
      "lo": 0.38469716289463907,
      "hi": 0.4090140184584449,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "cd2323d41b1d7cf31ae0ddae3f9dede35fb0e7780e6dfcdf9a6f62043ff5dd71"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3985 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3985 [0.3608\u20130.4417] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "481250",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer ",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.3985,
      "lo": 0.36075,
      "hi": 0.44175,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "481250f3a28f60e79fc8c2efbbc578bd11efc7fdcb68186e16d99934e2137a68"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "80%",
      "predFull": "80% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c76e6b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 annual aver",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c76e6b1621e3395a452d2515a2d1a69e973ce1c2eb661ef63e6e51c17147e7ac"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "77.8333%",
      "predFull": "77.8333% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "ef887e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 a",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.7783333333333333,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "ef887ef2f3cfd36ec8f211161aaa12a5b159bed0d82a4a6c6ce5408495d333e3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "78.75%",
      "predFull": "78.75% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "0d0de5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 annua",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.7875000000000001,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0d0de5974dc877f1f15405bf6b610a24593b3e65c18dc6dc2403f53fdf687ddb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.605 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.605 [2.5\u20132.7] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a42796",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.605,
      "lo": 2.5,
      "hi": 2.7,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.605,
        "low": 2.5,
        "high": 2.7
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a42796400f0b9d601d616a1f48fdcd77ec276566669a75281e5b75e3b46224fa"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.612 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.612 [2.562\u20132.661] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "bedf13",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6115069237035025,
      "lo": 2.5620369297995262,
      "hi": 2.6609769176074787,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6115069237035025,
        "low": 2.5620369297995262,
        "high": 2.6609769176074787
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "bedf13ee13803bc69597dfa6d380b41835ea83355707567d5ed2f1e84765472b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.627 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.627 [2.5\u20132.8] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c03d97",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6275,
      "lo": 2.5,
      "hi": 2.8000000000000003,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6275,
        "low": 2.5,
        "high": 2.8000000000000003
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c03d9713ba39935a5af9c8d6411270f05e462719d006e8e4dcdc6a4727e15cf5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.22\u20133.075] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c405b8",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-component rate",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.22,
      "hi": 3.075,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.22,
        "high": 3.075
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c405b8a690f9809e5523347c5e53c01c27dbc86e84e64c4de13bd03165151d8f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.615 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.615 [2.435\u20132.795] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b9843c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-comp",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.614889075967057,
      "lo": 2.4345767652189063,
      "hi": 2.7952013867152075,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.614889075967057,
        "low": 2.4345767652189063,
        "high": 2.7952013867152075
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b9843c98816bfe831d505cc1b33e7f115482d5103a7cb5fd22c08eea9d8f2c0c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.605 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.605 [2.195\u20133.075] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "401ea1",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-componen",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.605,
      "lo": 2.1950000000000003,
      "hi": 3.075,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.605,
        "low": 2.1950000000000003,
        "high": 3.075
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "401ea1624ac73504d8a6172b80ed67e5ff48e7e02251047286a25896ae2e471c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1 [-0.4\u20131.8] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d0b7ac",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.0,
      "lo": -0.4,
      "hi": 1.8,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.0,
        "low": -0.4,
        "high": 1.8
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d0b7ac9796e3d6f6c5fe05112deb10bb0099e2f182363bafe0462749bc988a8b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.7098 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.7098 [0.2867\u20131.133] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d42971",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.7097571628788746,
      "lo": 0.2867110728848816,
      "hi": 1.1328032528728675,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.7097571628788746,
        "low": 0.2867110728848816,
        "high": 1.1328032528728675
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d42971474f3e47a4796386802a2a64a111e633f9cff9fbdf443859a8d739cbd3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.85 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.85 [-0.325\u20131.775] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8a26be",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.85,
      "lo": -0.325,
      "hi": 1.775,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.85,
        "low": -0.325,
        "high": 1.775
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8a26be89c548fd15853241588cc57fd43addd657c2bb6a7877cd16716f7d60a3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.97 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.97 [0.095\u20131.76] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "3833df",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components + wage gr",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.97,
      "lo": 0.095,
      "hi": 1.76,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.97,
        "low": 0.095,
        "high": 1.76
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "3833df0b3a750095b2d4b8f6bbec7212c06b303eab1e9f910c793749385ca099"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.9603 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.9603 [0.6182\u20131.302] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "826336",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.9603215853810405,
      "lo": 0.6182079499158644,
      "hi": 1.3024352208462167,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.9603215853810405,
        "low": 0.6182079499158644,
        "high": 1.3024352208462167
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "826336d2e0c6fd2ab45f5157a03af82212950a491960f084441e49d64a19d58b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.96 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.96 [0.095\u20131.81] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "6d1618",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components + w",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.96,
      "lo": 0.095,
      "hi": 1.81,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.96,
        "low": 0.095,
        "high": 1.81
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6d16186d1807b85b9860e202f53a9225a078a80c2910fadb766448a77f9ce70b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "142 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "142 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "f37583",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 142.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f37583ea023aea716c4ec9fb7a943faa6064131d11e531da24b71d88369881f8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "166.67 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "166.67 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "586ba1",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 166.66666666666666,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "586ba1c53ea9731ee04fd872937286a2d6d07d7a77ab1387c7bf3b99570343dc"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "143 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "143 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "3cb889",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 143.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "3cb889568b8fbf3aa37b3dda23fa94a0c70fe31ad3303ddc0e3563778f470e4c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,935 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,935 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "ef4858",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2935.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "ef4858b0d8f05fb5481846cdb818aefb9fc68ed582c3b6d1939cd53a4869961f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,887 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,887 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "9262cc",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2886.6666666666665,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "9262ccd78b13f1dad17d644a509ba67918c73af62a423fa322db0a28c67dd851"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,930 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,930 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "0c7842",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2930.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0c78423fc6b943fef2cb53461defb80015cb63f1c9cdef7d1a548e778625c77b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.55 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.55 [9.05\u201311.8] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "079f71",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the com",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.55,
      "lo": 9.05,
      "hi": 11.8,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "079f71efc3ca5ab4d8f342df761e2875e5b837aae63514d888ffd75a0d77b35d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.47 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.47 [2.32\u20132.58] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8def9f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed histori",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.47,
      "lo": 2.32,
      "hi": 2.58,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "8def9f7d2dbd94d17b194cc15182fba229dd71da2bf728405f407ac50f2fb4fc"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.4 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.4 [31.1\u201332.1] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "2a1042",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historic",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.4,
      "lo": 31.1,
      "hi": 32.1,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "2a10425f2ca092ceb704af45518173bf79c81645c77bbdb6f63c62b477a21070"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.27e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.27e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "65822b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.27e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "65822b523dfee6418f47fc3ac5f4628298e059eafba37f77c37cb67f0a800fd8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.399 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.399 [0.35\u20130.46] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "5fe754",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Pr",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.399,
      "lo": 0.35,
      "hi": 0.46,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "5fe754e0435a3c8e963fc604703284f56b58c7fe24944ab03ca33b41f7708ae5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "75%",
      "predFull": "75% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d76093",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 ",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.75,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d760934e9c5ddcdde342b835b4952d68294888ece8b27eedd012371521fcc5db"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.61 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.61 [2.5\u20132.7] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "eb054f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.61,
      "lo": 2.5,
      "hi": 2.7,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.61,
        "low": 2.5,
        "high": 2.7
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "eb054f8b39d7a8902030473c5105458b4945b252e9166fb7d15413c329a8569e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.19\u201311.57] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "2b9c4a",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.19,
      "hi": 11.57,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2b9c4a678da3f7522e7ca2cc2b65cdff3dce0161dff18655755691f4d694bacf"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.34\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "f02f02",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed his",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.34,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "f02f020c2c646de7fc9cd849bfb36c9f521535bccd96821eb2fb5743f0ea1f05"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.63 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.63 [31.32\u201332.06] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "3178fb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed hist",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.63,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.06,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "3178fbc33aaaf6448159d6d1eb1d620b42c56973cfc3a3373145d859ee366ad4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.265e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.265e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "a32ea5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.265e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a32ea50551539ac38e60391ad450515cd8f145fe653ad9f05f7c3ed468b6b85e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.399 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.399 [0.35\u20130.46] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "6a3ae7",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.399,
      "lo": 0.35,
      "hi": 0.46,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6a3ae7212c7cba10751621bf2e0481f19cd1ee518dd7f2cebd17b3d0660894b1"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "80%",
      "predFull": "80% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "09c8e4",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "09c8e46c9bf135ff375803b901ad9fb652c2c75ecddc4ad112960756451d9d7a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.65 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.65 [2.48\u20132.65] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "17bd8d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.65,
      "lo": 2.48,
      "hi": 2.65,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.65,
        "low": 2.48,
        "high": 2.65
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "17bd8d43a11288d16f3859e04f737e4ecd5039a392d05a873ac5495b8c000a76"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.48 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.48 [9.188\u201311.569] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "4a9f8e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.48,
      "lo": 9.188,
      "hi": 11.569,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "4a9f8eda0948df6d5b4bb6a6a8df38dc33c02b038ef0a2f5934f14d5296b4f74"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.452 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.452 [2.339\u20132.557] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "627f02",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the comm",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.452,
      "lo": 2.339,
      "hi": 2.557,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "627f02fc7b873a1add2d5ae6a982e9170e7f6b621dd644071eb42745437a3f0d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.626 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.626 [31.32\u201332.063] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "907b9e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the commi",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.626,
      "lo": 31.32,
      "hi": 32.063,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "907b9e6c7aa218de4b79ee3bf055aac48d26e28db4a1a045efcba1338140be5f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.265e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.265e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "a2ef70",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.265e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a2ef70284bc69baad0934ebb14ec13cbed50717a60472bb0aa506327de4ec303"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.399 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.399 [0.35\u20130.46] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "346d90",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Rede",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.399,
      "lo": 0.35,
      "hi": 0.46,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "346d9053dc1a27879d46abaced48408859ebbddcd7841a794338bc4ec17ddf2f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "80%",
      "predFull": "80% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "063521",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "06352112ecee4fd4104c352e273396380baf186ea1aeba53e0546eede5c67381"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.65 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.65 [2.48\u20132.65] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b704a7",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.65,
      "lo": 2.48,
      "hi": 2.65,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.65,
        "low": 2.48,
        "high": 2.65
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b704a7bc21beb5801e120dfb8ae2fd7bba8bce77b5b570aff2faa1a670ea16c9"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.5 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.5 [9.2\u201311.5] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8da31f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.5,
      "lo": 9.2,
      "hi": 11.5,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8da31f78aa58a13ff284cd7ce0b2de0d828a96fb711c1da94eeb4fbcce13409d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.38\u20132.52] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8b72c4",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.38,
      "hi": 2.52,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "8b72c44fad20055559ee50e9f22ad52eecc2d94282c2522a26bce08a24f3ac4c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.7 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.7 [31.2\u201332.1] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "343a6f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed h",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.7,
      "lo": 31.2,
      "hi": 32.1,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "343a6f85d9672ccb97358a4a754fb0879ff7d74f842b96611d4f8b6721097582"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.2e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.2e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "b9f053",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.2e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b9f053dd0ba2d585b0cef3806b4ee1979d66b5fea40b1e17d5084447e4966a35"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.4 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.4 [0.385\u20130.415] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "3ca9e4",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefiniti",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.4,
      "lo": 0.385,
      "hi": 0.415,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "3ca9e401752f2ced1ac10897f72cad5494c1ffc4e281354299b9fb69848b2ae5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "70%",
      "predFull": "70% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d27404",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp o",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.7,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d2740461f0044385aa74cbd9a4c065b44fc6f33b7ff993bf77f8ead8ff01db6b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.2\u20133.1] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "75c898",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.2,
      "hi": 3.1,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.2,
        "high": 3.1
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "75c8980adc754dd6f3c6334bf4e8bc887c8e84a7b40eebb22c65eea01585008d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.5 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.5 [9.25\u201311.6] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "1dbec3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of t",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.5,
      "lo": 9.25,
      "hi": 11.6,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "1dbec3ad13acc0fabce1b3ac75e733f5f07e96cb1bc340453fce1cd46ae7cccb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.34\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "68af80",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed h",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.34,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "68af80a386408627f051cd533062186d3d92cc965c883bf8b7417ce1fe8aeb8d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.4 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.4 [31\u201332.1] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "99d6de",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed hi",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.4,
      "lo": 31.0,
      "hi": 32.1,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "99d6deee56f049d5a77d7584edea4899027f0559a8cb532e097e2f3fc3fa50c8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.28e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.28e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "5a3fcc",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's point forecast for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.28e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "5a3fcc0edce23221bc1804979ccbc0ef2bfc122aae9136bc52d3dae77aad5cea"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.4 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.4 [0.36\u20130.45] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "59391f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitio",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.4,
      "lo": 0.36,
      "hi": 0.45,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "59391f46374eebb4a56257276b98c2ccffe310d1eecb237978264bec72a7032f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "65%",
      "predFull": "65% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "13eb30",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's binary forecast for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.65,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "13eb30519545cdd5f726c29d634e106af199a4dc1cb923b73dae20367d2441ca"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.5\u20132.7] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "d1b45c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.5,
      "hi": 2.7,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.5,
        "high": 2.7
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "d1b45cf62f44316fe5a2c90369028c1c718f363a5e26d08ff1b762f383407989"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.5 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.5 [2\u20133.2] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "01d0d9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-c",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.5,
      "lo": 2.0,
      "hi": 3.2,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.5,
        "low": 2.0,
        "high": 3.2
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "01d0d9b8e21470f985fee0c098c99f2bc37fd9adffab7d4d67fb5632c39e7577"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.95 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.95 [0\u20131.8] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "98fadf",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.95,
      "lo": 0.0,
      "hi": 1.8,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.95,
        "low": 0.0,
        "high": 1.8
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "98fadf58356e4da0c4d8c14cc04269da42ba76b1fab9d9a8fe10467ed38daeff"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.95 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.95 [0.05\u20131.8] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8b03b2",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation compone",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.95,
      "lo": 0.05,
      "hi": 1.8,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.95,
        "low": 0.05,
        "high": 1.8
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8b03b2e3915b680ebd02722b4c79b87a2df465b60a6dad8b07722e9f6b02e8c8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "130 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "130 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "9901fb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 130.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "9901fba759f7800193ace09ddee1b648669c3fcea9f067456117aa4b8b65ba8f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-gpt-5-mini-grd",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "1,800 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "1,800 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "6d703b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1800.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6d703b6d2058f06fb4a9fa60883a6383b181ef3c573b808bfa8a4a9989876f12"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.2\u20133.1] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c513a5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflati",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.2,
      "hi": 3.1,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.2,
        "high": 3.1
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c513a5dd0a535d0cc14bb763d77158a3ebc5b456b7a151c4b5046f0870207ecc"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "-0.6 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "-0.6 [-2\u20130.8] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "db5d91",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": -0.6,
      "lo": -2.0,
      "hi": 0.8,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": -0.6,
        "low": -2.0,
        "high": 0.8
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "db5d9136d42efb709ab4cef17778890ed49b311f5f27ebfce30a5bec31f22ddd"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.9 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.9 [0.1\u20131.7] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "88eebe",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation com",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": 0.1,
      "hi": 1.7,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.9,
        "low": 0.1,
        "high": 1.7
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "88eebe4cbf0a773304f9b40281fd95e67694dd047dac4db34561deae893716f5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "144 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "144 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "aa2f4e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 144.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "aa2f4ea8ac44c714ca34e29c469f38d82f0ed9c49b4a872f17bca92198e957ee"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-foundry-gpt-4o-grd",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "3,100 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "3,100 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "502c55",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 3100.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "502c55822de948fca12472411b181b132b8619802719fafad078e175271c3ec6"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [2.23\u20133.05] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "39f68c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the si",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 2.23,
      "hi": 3.05,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 2.23,
        "high": 3.05
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "39f68cc998a0ac4a666a6b3bc1023cd030b1542da658afa46f9ac502eb97deca"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.83 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.83 [-1.93\u20130.83] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "86f8fb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.83,
      "lo": -1.93,
      "hi": 0.83,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.83,
        "low": -1.93,
        "high": 0.83
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "86f8fbc52cbcfe2867378d12a193ec0b4ac28d5e4699b8ea54373cdb8c2b0a7a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.97 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.97 [0.09\u20131.72] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "0e5e27",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on infl",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.97,
      "lo": 0.09,
      "hi": 1.72,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.97,
        "low": 0.09,
        "high": 1.72
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0e5e2715c1673559d969485905ead30b955a5ca4fb9951f1c7330493304a690b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "144 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "144 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "0ff5c4",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 144.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0ff5c457c5e3e344957259404c4a4c2b2778202e8c8dd5261f2d34d7313ae246"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-grd",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "3,125 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "3,125 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "cf3c31",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 3125.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "cf3c3176ed76efec224b34edde3dc20c4a4d7661b145d735b9094af2e003308a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.4 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.4 [2\u20132.9] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "e1a07f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six infl",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.4,
      "lo": 2.0,
      "hi": 2.9,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.4,
        "low": 2.0,
        "high": 2.9
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "e1a07f3349fdc913b645fd9736c2df5a0bf87a470f6027b5f03f3f8020d8ed7f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.8 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.8 [-1.5\u20132.5] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8e5b4d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": -1.5,
      "hi": 2.5,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.8,
        "low": -1.5,
        "high": 2.5
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8e5b4d2b1ec7b91f80a3da4fc57aa30943169c2cd62637b0f41df2fcb2786c6c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1 [-0.5\u20132.5] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "e84aeb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation ",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 1.0,
      "lo": -0.5,
      "hi": 2.5,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.0,
        "low": -0.5,
        "high": 2.5
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "e84aeb7056c33e8407d13275af4502ea3eb033f28666054d49176d9257183520"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "138 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "138 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "34013c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 138.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "34013cce745d1c4faa3fda6e138704f161263e59fc60165c042476488132238b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-foundry-kimi-k2-5-grd",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,800 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,800 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "b1577f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2800.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b1577f1579d0c6df154e694c6f99bcf1aa53f67446680266ae740fa4c7ef8795"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.15\u20133.1] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "f7b3cc",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six infla",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.15,
      "hi": 3.1,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.45,
        "low": 2.15,
        "high": 3.1
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f7b3cc1d489ce1d6ab43d6160b643235b6f15d7b207d553fc9ea9dd7f7f2e1ee"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.6 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.6 [-0.8\u20131.4] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "927764",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.6,
      "lo": -0.8,
      "hi": 1.4,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.6,
        "low": -0.8,
        "high": 1.4
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "927764ba1a317805db5bf64bf4e3c15a2c623e5d2a25944256f0a82e652b0ebb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.85 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.85 [0.1\u20131.6] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "48ea93",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation c",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.85,
      "lo": 0.1,
      "hi": 1.6,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.85,
        "low": 0.1,
        "high": 1.6
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "48ea934983a3490dbca71da1d6dd467ea622289ea2c21bfe254e22151d1fc6e3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "138.5 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "138.5 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "0e2f2e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's point forecast for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 138.5,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0e2f2e6b660ff720f60ca4e59e69b6948cd774fcdd7b7614dc0380df26ad282c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-foundry-grok-4-3-grd",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,950 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,950 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "09bf9f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's point forecast for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2950.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "09bf9f5042a179bf21c65a9c7c66de0f16a4443a7a8374799d8f8d26cde5d403"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.5 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.5 [9.19\u201311.57] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "eef857",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the commit",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.5,
      "lo": 9.19,
      "hi": 11.57,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "eef8572f7655a2cd892ff777ca29f6c2d2324268f283223ff845232a88fedd81"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.499 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.499 [9.959\u201311.04] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "2450a6",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.499477231648745,
      "lo": 9.958827327796262,
      "hi": 11.040127135501228,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2450a66eb9e9f6fd21e939d05a65df5b41ebb4639420e4665debfe377b2bf526"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.493 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.493 [9.193\u201311.58] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "63351c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings for the next release, most-probable 10.48% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [9.19, 11.57] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 10.493333333333334,
      "lo": 9.192666666666666,
      "hi": 11.579666666666668,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "63351cc7c3e1dac9b78209d2fb7aa72a32e43c286c63d56bd480e1dfd725447d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.45 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.45 [2.34\u20132.56] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "380026",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.45,
      "lo": 2.34,
      "hi": 2.56,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "380026fcecb98e0f05391f9d5cbb195366808bfe573d1e1d84f76a3264d04475"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.453 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.453 [2.408\u20132.497] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "fe1650",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.4526365131760026,
      "lo": 2.408472970887298,
      "hi": 2.4968000554647074,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "fe1650533257066fb53e929d28a41c2686e08c4ba432603ea1ac2b047d17e9fd"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-bottom50-networth-share-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "2.451 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "2.451 [2.34\u20132.559] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.471,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "6a94ff",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 2.45% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [2.34, 2.56] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed hist",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p0p50 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.4506666666666668,
      "lo": 2.3396666666666666,
      "hi": 2.5589999999999997,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_bottom50_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the bottom-50% (p0-p50) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "6a94ffb0f759f2ebf1aad039a19feb4aad02a7dcc16ea9df6565e37b16f9d097"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.626 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.626 [31.2\u201332.1] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c204e6",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed historical ",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.626,
      "lo": 31.2,
      "hi": 32.1,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "c204e60058fe87cca32a91d3ec91859be99b44b42d468f181da9c9cc41fb201e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.579 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.579 [31.386\u201331.772] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "ce0cbe",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed h",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.579107466668724,
      "lo": 31.385920401632173,
      "hi": 31.772294531705274,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "ce0cbe060b28c502727c40ffa08ff4566c9074196d5f6bbce64f6db26fc07225"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-us-dfa-top1-networth-share-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "us_dfa_top1_networth_share",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "31.552 % of household net worth",
      "predFull": "31.552 [31.207\u201332.088] % of household net worth",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 30.899,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "752cd5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): us_dfa_top1_networth_share for the next release, most-probable 31.63% (share-persistence, the gate-validated mechanism), 80% interval [31.32, 32.06] = central + the empirical p9-p90 of the committed histo",
      "source": "Federal Reserve DFA dfa-networth-levels.csv, next release covering 2026-Q2; groups S14:p99p99_9, S14:p99_9p100 per the committed taxonomy",
      "qid": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 31.552000000000003,
      "lo": 31.206666666666667,
      "hi": 32.08766666666667,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% of household net",
      "gkey": "q:us_dfa_top1_networth_share@2026-10-15||interval||% of household net worth",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "withheld_fields": [
        "criteria"
      ],
      "criteria": "[sealed rule withheld - editorial restatement] From the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts release covering 2026-Q2, compute the top-1% (p99-p100) share of US household net worth, in percent of total household net worth. Hit if the value falls within [low, high].",
      "core_sha256": "752cd5b7eae749ae948dc1008f4e33bc6b8484585e0c5b4894cc5d41e80d1f2a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.265e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.265e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "6e8583",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.265e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6e85837d8a76aa393af9ee48047e44940abdc9091ea6a7356a37d57359bd455e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.256e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.256e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "ec4cc7",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.256e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "ec4cc7e0d0f00c8fe82ed57dc8589b17fce3dad4519c28aaf99b09c1e0f67f50"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "2.267e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "2.267e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "c6dc02",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: TOP500 aggregate classical compute reaches ~2.27e18 FLOPS (2.27 EFLOPS-scale sum trajectory) at the 2026 point of the doubling-law forecast.",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.2666666666666668e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c6dc0272647291ef573b36dfc92b08bb19f1caba4abc611b2edce00920daa3dd"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.399 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.399 [0.35\u20130.46] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "c8a257",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Produ",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.399,
      "lo": 0.35,
      "hi": 0.46,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c8a2576f76a157606364bbb2b80b4415e0c80dde772f155bdd715db839738bc4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3998 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3998 [0.3868\u20130.4128] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "43d65c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefiniti",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.3998327598072952,
      "lo": 0.38684684971299343,
      "hi": 0.412818669901597,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "43d65c6df055d6d5d9a54d176ac9ecdd43a10aa32af0ef00ee9e9448393168f3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3993 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3993 [0.3533\u20130.4567] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "be45dd",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: ICPE pilot forward claim (the load-bearing test): the 2024 share of commodity 325 (chemical products) in industry 326 (plastics and rubber products) total intermediate inputs, per the NEXT published BEA Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions,",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.3993333333333333,
      "lo": 0.35333333333333333,
      "hi": 0.4566666666666667,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "be45dd72bdaf1c2977b72bd172c9b1440f15d0e7d12e9cc6473eb1a13c965d0a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "75%",
      "predFull": "75% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a7a1b0",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on 2026 a",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.75,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a7a1b0a19b247ffa03a9ab2d04a2fa024b4b4475fd3b7d48c4491615caa7cac8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "74%",
      "predFull": "74% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "942357",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.74,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "9423575940dc3e3c759bb07a7b6e6614c221da032e80a12e0806c24f4349f434"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "75%",
      "predFull": "75% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "5f2337",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: US low-income FELT inflation runs at least 0.3pp above headline CPI for calendar 2026: the bottom-quintile basket (committed backtest weights housing .40 food .16 energy .09 insurance .05 medical .05 other .25) inflates >= headline + 0.3pp on ",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.75,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "5f233795f4ebd06370fe4fe1f35bbc9c9631fa3e4bb56cf4f22e0787cca199c9"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.61 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.61 [2.48\u20132.7] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b5a9aa",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.61,
      "lo": 2.48,
      "hi": 2.7,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.61,
        "low": 2.48,
        "high": 2.7
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b5a9aa1ae2b274740d09e287cec6be0d5f925170d1a2121c5c682a16968767d5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.631 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.631 [2.585\u20132.676] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a497ab",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.630805770833703,
      "lo": 2.585245432718492,
      "hi": 2.676366108948914,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.630805770833703,
        "low": 2.585245432718492,
        "high": 2.676366108948914
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a497ab9f209172f53f5f44b6ddbfcd6cfb460c10e1307731f8a3f73fa0fe7ce7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.62 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.62 [2.487\u20132.683] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "0776e3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: US household felt inflation for calendar 2026 lands between +2.5% and +2.7% (scenario range: recession 1.0248 to stable 1.0265 on the 2025=1.0 index).",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.6199999999999997,
      "lo": 2.486666666666667,
      "hi": 2.6833333333333336,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6199999999999997,
        "low": 2.486666666666667,
        "high": 2.6833333333333336
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "0776e3318e1a49df26a75bb8b5ea1ec078e2356d623356e23d4d8382da5e3258"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.5 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.5 [2.15\u20133.1] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a90dcd",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflation-comp",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.5,
      "lo": 2.15,
      "hi": 3.1,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.5,
        "low": 2.15,
        "high": 3.1
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a90dcd381215a90e2b1eec3edb17d5949d80b0af298134c08f2ff3d373ffc791"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.516 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.516 [2.308\u20132.725] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8615d3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six infl",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.5162045837396394,
      "lo": 2.307849970416752,
      "hi": 2.724559197062527,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.5162045837396394,
        "low": 2.307849970416752,
        "high": 2.724559197062527
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8615d3e3d7ac96bbbf0b390dbe85cbc17e0db466dfa6f939b3547fb2e1644fb6"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.517 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.517 [2.117\u20133.083] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "e30c31",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 household felt inflation (basket_cpi) most-probable 2.60% yoy, 80% interval [2.24, 3.05], from a 300-replica parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (disclosed illustrative +/-1pp draws on the six inflatio",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2.516666666666667,
      "lo": 2.1166666666666667,
      "hi": 3.0833333333333335,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.516666666666667,
        "low": 2.1166666666666667,
        "high": 3.0833333333333335
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "e30c31f085751825e67979660e3c613745979ff775598497f91f46469e1a38b1"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.8 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.8 [-1.5\u20131.4] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "6f17b9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.8,
      "lo": -1.5,
      "hi": 1.4,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.8,
        "low": -1.5,
        "high": 1.4
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6f17b937b2bd6d1dae08c5edbce0717cfa1217ea47d3f699ebe67296f28aff7d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.5972 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.5972 [0.0505\u20131.144] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "fe26fc",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.5971989555161029,
      "lo": 0.050540093292255395,
      "hi": 1.1438578177399505,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.5971989555161029,
        "low": 0.050540093292255395,
        "high": 1.1438578177399505
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "fe26fc9110b0806e8edf175e5798bf39ff51ce569eed20bf76a6794672753710"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.7433 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.7433 [-1.41\u20131.343] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "cdd636",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: US real wage change over calendar 2026 lands between -1.9% (recession scenario) and +0.8% (stable scenario).",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.7433333333333333,
      "lo": -1.4100000000000001,
      "hi": 1.3433333333333335,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.7433333333333333,
        "low": -1.4100000000000001,
        "high": 1.3433333333333335
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "cdd636ee086a61ef83adb73969b691964295b6e4a1540f079f7c578cb52564cf"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.95 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.95 [0.09\u20131.72] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "43809f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation components",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.95,
      "lo": 0.09,
      "hi": 1.72,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.95,
        "low": 0.09,
        "high": 1.72
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "43809f0750b6d572a921fa99e21e1bc22cbb01b19efdc2c32aff76246652ab23"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.9191 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.9191 [0.5298\u20131.308] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "dcffb9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation ",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.9191389919031149,
      "lo": 0.5297820960667687,
      "hi": 1.308495887739461,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.9191389919031149,
        "low": 0.5297820960667687,
        "high": 1.308495887739461
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "dcffb9c3be4468f1dc9c4a8be1e1dce76362486879f69643511925a9b9ee3be4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "0.94 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "0.94 [0.08\u20131.74] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "45aa65",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: v2 (calibratable predictive interval): 2026 US real wage change most-probable 0.97% yoy real, 80% interval [0.09, 1.72], from the same 300-replica household_squeeze parameter-uncertainty Monte-Carlo (illustrative +/-1pp draws on inflation comp",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 0.94,
      "lo": 0.08,
      "hi": 1.74,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 0.94,
        "low": 0.08,
        "high": 1.74
      },
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "45aa65a8f4c7cca91e9eb60c49e6c8953a5e0531ad1a97f56e05448e8d3b3828"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "138.5 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "138.5 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "f27342",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 138.5,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f2734254e1c96c48564c9cb74751733f0d2d926c78ff0790d391a644905ebdca"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "138.9 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "138.9 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "c19d6d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 138.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c19d6d7e5b2c82c582599b22cb758f1f2b6a9d0691df30f66d732ecf9b29d912"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "140.17 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "140.17 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "13635d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: AI-accelerator enabler demand (NVDA data-center revenue proxy) reaches ~$144B for calendar 2026 (backtested tailwind model, 25% growth).",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 140.16666666666666,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "13635d3ed35c6a690286e25a003be307170eb541982bce16bde23fcc87ca30c1"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-median-grd",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,950 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,950 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "cdbcc2",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:median of 5 models for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2950.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "cdbcc2c2f934a04a45659e98b23d6f5de262ea835e5d80f324777dc40d68309a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-inverse_variance-grd",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,755 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,755 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "586fb8",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 5 models for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute le",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2755.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "586fb8647fa347bab8a0ebbfb5eda14366e2c77f2f5cd08824203c089ca53009"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-08-17-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-trimmed_mean-grd",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,950 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,950 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "00fdd2",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (dyno_grounded) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 5 models for: Global solar capacity (utility-scale-equivalent, model units) reaches ~3.1 TW by end-2026 under BAU build rates. CAVEAT: the model's five capacities proxy the whole energy system; this tests the build-RATE realism more than the absolute level.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-08-17",
      "prompt_version": null,
      "val": 2950.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "engine-grounded (retired)",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "00fdd2a53d7c5920ad3c8ef3646ecbdde19c042ecbb1020fbee215ae8a1cada7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-450 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-450 [-1,000\u2013-200] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "670776",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's interval forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -450.0,
      "lo": -1000.0,
      "hi": -200.0,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "6707762391a30944a4168652054fe22f89d4377e5faff30bfc7ce6f938c3131a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "90%",
      "predFull": "90% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "637b83",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "637b83a128af45f90fa7a402c0eb442c7dd266d3a7e2d101cabf17bd9aaba9ff"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-gpt-5-mini-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "95%",
      "predFull": "95% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "00b38f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 gpt-5-mini's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.95,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-5-mini",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "00b38fa3c286f9ee1d5c54ce034edf4649cd82d5ac435dd22b04e1c579aedf66"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-anthropic-claude-opus-4-8-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-650 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-650 [-1,000\u2013-300] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "b66626",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 anthropic:claude-opus-4-8's interval forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -650.0,
      "lo": -1000.0,
      "hi": -300.0,
      "model": "claude-opus-4-8",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "b666264d41378b6f82b5ab8d8ac9c289593029f316b82225012a21eb94571401"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-anthropic-claude-opus-4-8-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "90%",
      "predFull": "90% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "a75558",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 anthropic:claude-opus-4-8's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "claude-opus-4-8",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "a755587cf233e1611b1bc71efcc0b6a1b6e7b233c2015051b4040cb5f5a8d324"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-anthropic-claude-opus-4-8-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "95%",
      "predFull": "95% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "44f84e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 anthropic:claude-opus-4-8's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.95,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "claude-opus-4-8",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "44f84ea91f0279aad97611fa438d07a4e02a7c23446026dd79b135fa46e3afbd"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-550 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-550 [-800\u2013-300] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "3acfff",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's interval forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -550.0,
      "lo": -800.0,
      "hi": -300.0,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "3acfff5f0e7a1b043401820f373360a9e5a2e2edae81bea16d424251b588626d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "90%",
      "predFull": "90% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "997042",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "997042cd049cc36468c908289d33148797311d67f3a2650f89a87956231549e6"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-foundry-gpt-4o-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "85%",
      "predFull": "85% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "d1194a",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:gpt-4o's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.85,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "d1194a83c8087caf2bfc9f1ff89355cfe5619c3d2bb23eee72d1b2cb35e5a947"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-500 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-500 [-900\u2013-200] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "638e0b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's interval forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -500.0,
      "lo": -900.0,
      "hi": -200.0,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "638e0b9cd50b7a38006dad46605c9ec9deac1b5981eb2109e5791d32e251d0af"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "95%",
      "predFull": "95% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "de60e3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.95,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "de60e3d318a5cd5c720d150447130fe9205a6379888092a91005760f6675dad4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-foundry-deepseek-v4-pro-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "85%",
      "predFull": "85% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "ee6506",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:DeepSeek-V4-Pro's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.85,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "ee6506b32edbfd4f6902820b3314eff577540bd4ee12322df66063b1ff12ffdb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-500 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-500 [-1,000\u2013-100] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "41ffb4",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's interval forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -500.0,
      "lo": -1000.0,
      "hi": -100.0,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "41ffb42532a640e34f60ec6b0945b9106e9de75e5ebbfbfc3741f436321e00ff"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "88%",
      "predFull": "88% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "5b3005",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.88,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "5b3005d9acef082f01982dae30cec766af5ffe572abaf41900f663f9c44a0ad9"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-foundry-kimi-k2-5-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "82%",
      "predFull": "82% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "be394e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Kimi-K2.5's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.82,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Kimi-K2.5",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "be394eb5e2998e8d0e4c2046a2f48317fefeac9bbbd63f76095787e135aeb083"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-300 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-300 [-850\u2013150] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "9589c5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's interval forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -300.0,
      "lo": -850.0,
      "hi": 150.0,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "9589c57ef73ab8bb246464ef129dfeac87fa2f903b5b33697f7a9f414efd97e5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "72%",
      "predFull": "72% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "1b64c2",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.72,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "1b64c2d09197008fadb4311fb28f778217f321c419da89ed4a444c2b17e54ae7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-foundry-grok-4-3-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "81%",
      "predFull": "81% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "dc01ad",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 foundry:Grok-4.3's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.81,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "Grok-4.3",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "dc01ad6f0f1c5b0b41c1c5b26d61e0c1d5c383e81aef20b510cc44fdf609674b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-550 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-550 [-1,050\u2013-150] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "f0a530",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's interval forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -550.0,
      "lo": -1050.0,
      "hi": -150.0,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "f0a530d6a691f3964599649a23c2bca38cf9331bc3c6fd0b120317411a8bf2db"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "85%",
      "predFull": "85% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "ece67f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.85,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "ece67f344cef8e50d287cc5de41ccf5216322a8b8b6c17954517c6d794099c9c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-kimi-kimi-k3-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "88%",
      "predFull": "88% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "llm",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "90f235",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 kimi:kimi-k3's binary forecast of ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.88,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "kimi-k3",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "90f235961353b7fbef88f76d46cfae75a2e3f5bf1220507fae164f8a7b6e129d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-500 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-500 [-1,000\u2013-200] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "2958d5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -500.0,
      "lo": -1000.0,
      "hi": -200.0,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "2958d59dc19970d2c3f6bec743b46f23345ccbcad39a579344b35ed5db9e75d3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-522.09 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-522.09 [-660.17\u2013-384.02] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "115b8e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -522.094098433494,
      "lo": -660.1689319467475,
      "hi": -384.0192649202404,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "115b8ec7ea36994f2f958aea7d718fe04e9bb9fa0c0801e6c160d3a97316073d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-510 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-510 [-950\u2013-190] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "07ff7c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -510.0,
      "lo": -950.0,
      "hi": -190.0,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "07ff7c3063a9a7da2833d5a6c3e06b51f2ebe794f49711a43abbed3f08fadca3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "90%",
      "predFull": "90% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "0254a2",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "0254a2135acf3e6adcb7fdb77f53def5e66bdf0af6341a93a93e3667688b9fca"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "87.1429%",
      "predFull": "87.1429% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "e3a5c6",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8714285714285713,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "e3a5c6a65f5e2fe8a45595de6fc010cbf52758c2d05321401b7b16ae31074591"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "88.6%",
      "predFull": "88.6% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "c5f72a",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8859999999999999,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "c5f72ae9766c78f83952e732063ee8f51c4c4e5a2ea127c7c85c298d967a4e96"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "85%",
      "predFull": "85% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "042ad3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.85,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "042ad3428410a0b31905bcb8c5942abc94975ee00f9e27adae502beb9b8b035a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "87.2857%",
      "predFull": "87.2857% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "201016",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8728571428571428,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "20101666d0de388f3c183ee6088f79a5c551594dcdcdaa88ebfb050c7b45e35a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "87%",
      "predFull": "87% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "7ba3df",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8699999999999999,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "7ba3dfc6b4e3f6af6d2fe636d4c94a4650ede4e60ed6536fcc782d73bec235ee"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.6 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.6 [9.5\u201311.65] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "fee233",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 10.6,
      "lo": 9.5,
      "hi": 11.65,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "fee2337674c430e77b69854953ee511854dd2a6479e40c3d8d0b967edbcfc457"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.606 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.606 [10.3\u201310.912] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "975723",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 10.60601156644134,
      "lo": 10.29953036694302,
      "hi": 10.91249276593966,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "9757235cfe79e119b861fce177ce98ebbb3bd79ddd4f3ccd29ad065d5828529b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.6 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.6 [9.575\u201311.65] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "20a25f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 10.6,
      "lo": 9.575,
      "hi": 11.65,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "20a25f60d45e31ac01d7413f877ac26c96dd62dc8ca165fcf9ac64432be9fd4f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-revision-horizon-ordering-holds-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "70%",
      "predFull": "70% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "9c1c52",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The EVENT is t",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.7,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over thr",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over three median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "9c1c520b655628794a7186e4b8a8fc035cf57b1a51867ee8fe08c93eba945c6b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-revision-horizon-ordering-holds-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "62.1429%",
      "predFull": "62.1429% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "2ad0c1",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The EVENT is t",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.6214285714285713,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over thr",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over three median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2ad0c1bf2affe0cd64bef776738a2e0725d361be14893d64896a9884b98b690b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-revision-horizon-ordering-holds-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "64%",
      "predFull": "64% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "7a0ca8",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The EVENT is t",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.6399999999999999,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over thr",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over three median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "7a0ca89e8281b7e85a7323aa4019ba8ac0cd56c4288a2a8d0b57d4049d11e996"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-revision-is-material-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_is_material",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "90%",
      "predFull": "90% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "7f522c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for weo_revision_is_material @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The pre-regist",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over med",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "7f522cef40190ff29fbe55eec892b40be70f1b384fc21c0d0a0f3cd348dcd71f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-revision-is-material-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_is_material",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "84.5714%",
      "predFull": "84.5714% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "bd439f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for weo_revision_is_material @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The pre-regist",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8457142857142858,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over med",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "bd439fe3978d70a9149a82b22d0d770460503ca24826af335a4750e81774bed2"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-revision-is-material-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_is_material",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "87.4%",
      "predFull": "87.4% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "73bb57",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for weo_revision_is_material @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The pre-regist",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.874,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over med",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "73bb578765743a1627f7691d4e70560d9d750311c4b272b7d160c5ad217f6001"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-world-2025-growth-revision-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "weo_world_2025_growth_revision",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "0.01 pp",
      "predFull": "0.01 [-0.15\u20130.21] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "93db12",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for weo_world_2025_growth_revision @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "Compute the October-2026 minus April-2026 revision to the 2025 world (G001) real GDP growth value, in percentage points (order 0.0-1.0 pp). Hit if within [-0.30, +0.30].",
      "qid": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.01,
      "lo": -0.15,
      "hi": 0.21000000000000002,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "93db125a84b0479612c37853945dff66c2103b2a281f21442a5efa7dd1839e05"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-world-2025-growth-revision-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "weo_world_2025_growth_revision",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "0.01 pp",
      "predFull": "0.01 [-0.0477\u20130.0676] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "4f3f8d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for weo_world_2025_growth_revision @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "Compute the October-2026 minus April-2026 revision to the 2025 world (G001) real GDP growth value, in percentage points (order 0.0-1.0 pp). Hit if within [-0.30, +0.30].",
      "qid": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.00997690531177829,
      "lo": -0.047691414448087235,
      "hi": 0.06764522507164382,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "4f3f8dd744055ff24312d0f48b542e09f1aed46228a11a6a8b76275732b3271c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-weo-world-2025-growth-revision-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "weo_world_2025_growth_revision",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "0.0175 pp",
      "predFull": "0.0175 [-0.1575\u20130.205] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "08440e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for weo_world_2025_growth_revision @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "Compute the October-2026 minus April-2026 revision to the 2025 world (G001) real GDP growth value, in percentage points (order 0.0-1.0 pp). Hit if within [-0.30, +0.30].",
      "qid": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.0175,
      "lo": -0.1575,
      "hi": 0.20500000000000002,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "08440eb50c4b7425b01f2998617e66d0a4ed17342d64412fe217b7182e232211"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "3.05e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "3.05e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "82b0a3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for classical_flops @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 3.05e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "82b0a32d468e759f94fce95dea7f3b3f8119f2eeaed2b8dc88b1a133fe9a9395"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "4.417e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "4.417e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "e908ba",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for classical_flops @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 4.4166666666666665e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "e908bae787f0facfa1d487d538724172ed513882c5db762860c7600ce74a7714"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "3.35e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "3.35e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "168c85",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for classical_flops @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 3.35e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "168c85eb760740da32b3ea49f840dac54e1d1672c7a14f9e7059c510cfa7ef14"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "0.0375 pp",
      "predFull": "0.0375 [0.004\u20130.08] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "37ceed",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.037500000000000006,
      "lo": 0.004,
      "hi": 0.08,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "37ceed1e0dcf608212d3827f48912e61a9581b930713ab57dcb4d1222e0badc3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "0.0333 pp",
      "predFull": "0.0333 [0.0198\u20130.0469] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "2f713a",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.03332824725004663,
      "lo": 0.019799616343429985,
      "hi": 0.04685687815666327,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2f713adc70b02cd5957c2f037832865f0cd026532c8a7f6d63d464a37991542e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "0.0363 pp",
      "predFull": "0.0363 [0.0045\u20130.085] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c03816",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.036250000000000004,
      "lo": 0.0045000000000000005,
      "hi": 0.085,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c0381675fab3e97252253e81ea83ad11f03201cf29885394b369a7a183315b4f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-materi-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "89%",
      "predFull": "89% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "6bdadd",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.89,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6bdadda93aeebd578aeaa25be1aa33edb0a3f5bf5ecc4553258d3e4d11064da5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-materi-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "89.1667%",
      "predFull": "89.1667% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "9473db",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8916666666666666,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "9473db49d0a01f57793495acf6382b92c7044b34259294ce9ae848ee21e500ff"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-materi-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "89.5%",
      "predFull": "89.5% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "3c515e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.895,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "3c515e93a7221fd19e2c83e8fc25c3bd97b2dcc8eadcb860806e8a712306cb98"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-positi-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "79%",
      "predFull": "79% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "aeac59",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.79,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "aeac593ac2058efa1c0371a4cd1fb82c58f06a32858600514c7d784bc3d454b7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-positi-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "79.6667%",
      "predFull": "79.6667% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "4a7a1d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.7966666666666667,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "4a7a1dc6e2b0bcf6ef19f58ef706c1c091813d4796e4ccc1c90f37ae2af56efe"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-positi-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "79%",
      "predFull": "79% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "81db99",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.79,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "81db99b5ffe7cc7842f02ba7b8fc7bf85fa6b95a4539963d901a1c2a99733e4d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3985 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3985 [0.37\u20130.43] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "868c53",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates @ 2026-12-31",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.3985,
      "lo": 0.37,
      "hi": 0.43,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "868c5352e2c0ec47a26dcb5e304426ddbbc5c87112424a085c8a7bf7af63fa35"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3995 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3995 [0.3889\u20130.41] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "f11445",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates @ 2026-12-31",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.3994635496625438,
      "lo": 0.3889028248643088,
      "hi": 0.4100242744607788,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f1144503442666f8fe1795015f02f118be29eedc1e1ef956dd82be2440c9e83c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3985 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3985 [0.3722\u20130.4275] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "f7ec3e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates @ 2026-12-31",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.3985,
      "lo": 0.37224999999999997,
      "hi": 0.4275,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f7ec3e9c71717114fcd09be8e23483148e1191556b226cb8d3f6695098432c5d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "46%",
      "predFull": "46% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "7ec268",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 6 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.45999999999999996,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "7ec268e722a3cd324344ade139c56c323a368b5d49b1c3512d63a2cb193963f5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "41.5%",
      "predFull": "41.5% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "e5d89d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 6 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.41500000000000004,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "e5d89d2907ceb2fee9c4a2a05cae3fa98f5eef72b0b1c59c6f1259d62619829f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "43%",
      "predFull": "43% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "bc8aba",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 6 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.43,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "bc8aba1b0f80ce562c1b68b1f57ef6fd5371d0219b9368446ce8b3ec471832e1"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [1.8\u20133.5] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "248d87",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 1.8,
      "hi": 3.5,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 1.8,
        "high": 3.5
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "248d877d358f2f92ae42ecfb246b8bce8d1678d3539b20062334b92486e45bb0"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.585 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.585 [2.289\u20132.881] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "16b261",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.58520331972586,
      "lo": 2.2891569891913206,
      "hi": 2.8812496502603993,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.58520331972586,
        "low": 2.2891569891913206,
        "high": 2.8812496502603993
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "16b261b29ccbcbb5f3bae6e6920148ebe0ad4b308fc16614b57804a000481078"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.52 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.52 [1.76\u20133.44] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "377582",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.52,
      "lo": 1.7600000000000002,
      "hi": 3.44,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.52,
        "low": 1.7600000000000002,
        "high": 3.44
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "37758200c3b561c2f9e35a1652feeb70c2bae0187e1a31ce0550130ea9024b4e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [1.8\u20133.4] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "ff9a07",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for basket_cpi_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 1.8,
      "hi": 3.4,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 1.8,
        "high": 3.4
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "ff9a075581392ec09de1fe6011821bc100f6d9953f76dfc519be4a194e20a155"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.567 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.567 [2.277\u20132.857] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8956b3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for basket_cpi_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.5673653884855896,
      "lo": 2.277337168835328,
      "hi": 2.857393608135851,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.5673653884855896,
        "low": 2.277337168835328,
        "high": 2.857393608135851
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8956b3d763a5f184987c7f30ced941c293d37d968a680b0b8a1c23669df03666"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.5 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.5 [1.76\u20133.4] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b67c7d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for basket_cpi_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.5,
      "lo": 1.7600000000000002,
      "hi": 3.4,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.5,
        "low": 1.7600000000000002,
        "high": 3.4
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b67c7da985342705a8825081a66db1687028e08e82a81834e771062fe8ee531e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.3 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.3 [0.2\u20132.6] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "c01902",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for real_wage @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.3,
      "lo": 0.2,
      "hi": 2.6,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.3,
        "low": 0.2,
        "high": 2.6
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "c01902fb5e94ee4cc3addb1ec53e542c09e671a654b7eb079493e89907ed9c8d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.324 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.324 [0.9373\u20131.711] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "1d059b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for real_wage @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.324356310207422,
      "lo": 0.9372696318449814,
      "hi": 1.7114429885698628,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.324356310207422,
        "low": 0.9372696318449814,
        "high": 1.7114429885698628
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "1d059b1f994a0fd645bca15f012e38928506a7be808a64a624f545f769791ee8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.32 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.32 [0.16\u20132.54] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b7827b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for real_wage @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.3199999999999998,
      "lo": 0.16,
      "hi": 2.54,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.3199999999999998,
        "low": 0.16,
        "high": 2.54
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b7827b5c79773edf04cd7513147c7ce3dcffa784fc63fdb8975a6a1479055f6e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.3 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.3 [0.2\u20132.6] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "3fbb41",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for real_wage_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.3,
      "lo": 0.2,
      "hi": 2.6,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.3,
        "low": 0.2,
        "high": 2.6
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "3fbb416b2b8c5fc58276b399d91441d2a2856ee5ff7fe0b294483fdd7aa925c4"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.347 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.347 [0.968\u20131.727] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "99aa65",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for real_wage_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.3472578032177083,
      "lo": 0.9679828021200809,
      "hi": 1.7265328043153356,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.3472578032177083,
        "low": 0.9679828021200809,
        "high": 1.7265328043153356
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "99aa656f63a96d045392093564ad28e125d4ce4fde57fa586c2fc12c06b73f44"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.32 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.32 [0.22\u20132.52] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "36955f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for real_wage_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.3199999999999998,
      "lo": 0.22000000000000003,
      "hi": 2.52,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.3199999999999998,
        "low": 0.22000000000000003,
        "high": 2.52
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "36955fee2de1f4262c6a2d0554610b9891fa4a47fc63568ebe39671efb18fd09"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "185 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "185 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "bc9118",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for accelerator_demand @ 2027-03-01",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 185.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "bc9118ae678ebbba4de3e533572e6136fa12f6f6c7381ae2da725a720297177b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "195 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "195 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "484aa8",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for accelerator_demand @ 2027-03-01",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 195.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "484aa8603f30cdfe8a3caf0862d0befc95e260af4ed0ab7c004ba8edb23c5a54"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-accelerator-demand-point-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "accelerator_demand",
      "due": "2027-03-01",
      "predShort": "189 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "predFull": "189 billion USD (calendar year)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 115.19,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "a173f1",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for accelerator_demand @ 2027-03-01",
      "source": "NVIDIA quarterly reports: data-center segment revenue, four quarters covering calendar 2026 (FY2027)",
      "criteria": "Sum NVDA data-center segment revenue for the four fiscal quarters best covering calendar 2026. Score = absolute percentage error.",
      "qid": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 189.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "billion USD",
      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a173f160f42cfbc3f82b1c3490d00290a5e4158c20256eb343e608f4b3fa4e92"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,800 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,800 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "fdd7b9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for capacity_solar @ 2027-04-15",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2800.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "fdd7b941f9e1922687a0d8f043f07907d12a8f7b379ab784fcfb3c423fbe4ec3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,750 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,750 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "f36891",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for capacity_solar @ 2027-04-15",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2750.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f36891de18e55765c068faf407bd9c4f49962a88c25b2719099fc5ef8fb30a60"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-02-tourney-capacity-solar-point-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "capacity_solar",
      "due": "2027-04-15",
      "predShort": "2,780 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "predFull": "2,780 GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2200.0,
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "a74ed5",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for capacity_solar @ 2027-04-15",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
      "criteria": "IRENA end-2026 global installed solar PV in GW. Score = absolute percentage error. Expected to test the capacity-proxy aggregation honestly - a large miss is itself a model finding.",
      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-02",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2780.0,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "GW",
      "gkey": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15||point||GW (utility-scale-equivalent)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a74ed5c15d5fc938a9bc28b217f3b5bb2bc24508ed9acfa99b9f1d7d2e9c8ff6"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-500 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-500 [-1,050\u2013-200] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "fe26a6",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -500.0,
      "lo": -1050.0,
      "hi": -200.0,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "fe26a6dce2ac28b3598ca9a6e3cde16d126eedbd5b3b9ba606c5db42a115daa0"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-524.14 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-524.14 [-672.1\u2013-376.18] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "11d0eb",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -524.1432494092169,
      "lo": -672.1024715815338,
      "hi": -376.18402723689996,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "11d0eb9932251bc9f29e15809107d35ab0152e6656f582448ad9a6a9fb890449"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "-515 thousands of jobs",
      "predFull": "-515 [-1,050\u2013-180] thousands of jobs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "ec4e6c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). Hit",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": -515.0,
      "lo": -1050.0,
      "hi": -180.0,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "thousands of jobs",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision@2026-10-15||interval||thousands of jobs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "ec4e6c5c374785446464834cf120956f34952d7eb7317fa58468c75c22cb1926"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "85%",
      "predFull": "85% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "40cb83",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.85,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "40cb83564c8e801f898ae5b85402e8f5666e712d71a9592f8717f0ede9ba13ff"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "87%",
      "predFull": "87% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "86dca7",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.87,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "86dca763380207e79eb5b66cfd1e9d0627ae01b30d3f98327cb6c19643802b39"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-revision-is--binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "87%",
      "predFull": "87% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "26eaf9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8699999999999999,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_revision_is_negative@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "26eaf91a41afb669721c45ad6ba98fe33a2fd96e9d29231c350cf40d029afd35"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "90%",
      "predFull": "90% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "6b8c0e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "6b8c0e43928fcf827c12971399753866734ed78c39654ed6239a02a06855ec20"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "82.5714%",
      "predFull": "82.5714% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "59a1ac",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8257142857142857,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "59a1acd8ba3d553eb8cd650abfbf445f957f9dfe76a1ee7d97d40dbb408f21e7"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-ces-fy2026-prelim-benchmark-wedge-is-mat-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "84.6%",
      "predFull": "84.6% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "705e0e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "BLS CES preliminary benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month (the FY2026 preliminary estimate, published ~September 2026)",
      "criteria": "Take the single published preliminary FY2026 CES benchmark revision for the March-2026 reference month, total nonfarm, in thousands of jobs (expected order of magnitude: hundreds of thousands, i.e. 1e2-1e3 thousand). The",
      "qid": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8460000000000001,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over a r",
      "gkey": "q:ces_fy2026_prelim_benchmark_wedge_is_material@2026-10-15||binary||indicator over a revision in thousands of jobs (order 1e2-1e3 thousand)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "caveat": "DISCLOSED SUB-CLASS: the outcome of this question was already PUBLIC when the lane was sealed. The forecast is recorded and graded like any other, but it is EXCLUDED from the main scoreboard and must not be read as evidence of foresight - the answer was available to anyone who looked.",
      "caveat_id": "outcome-published-before-seal",
      "core_sha256": "705e0e858fd11ac4ce35fb80d36f34df18985934bdd1ffc7dc659085d6456928"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.6 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.6 [9.8\u201311.9] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "82d2da",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 10.6,
      "lo": 9.8,
      "hi": 11.9,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "82d2da2f2a6735b91073db1d4232484986db5a62d5156cd577daecc80c6149ac"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.585 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.585 [10.314\u201310.857] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8fc07e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 10.585278700375232,
      "lo": 10.313705514553536,
      "hi": 10.856851886196928,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8fc07eb3481ae68ac4b0f1f2b8acce6b6aa6689970ce387eb582c9181a031a96"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-households-share-of-fwtw-treasury-holdin-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings",
      "due": "2026-10-15",
      "predShort": "10.65 % of instrument total",
      "predFull": "10.65 [9.72\u201311.74] % of instrument total",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 10.573,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "cf82c1",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings @ 2026-10-15",
      "source": "Federal Reserve EFA fwtw_data.csv, next release: Treasury Securities (30611), holder Households (15), 2026-Q2, share of the in-band instrument Total excluding Discrepancy",
      "criteria": "Re-run fetch-fed-z1-fwtw.py after the release; compute households' 2026-Q2 share of total 30611 holdings (sum over holder sectors, Discrepancy excluded), in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 10.65,
      "lo": 9.72,
      "hi": 11.74,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% of instrument to",
      "gkey": "q:households_share_of_fwtw_treasury_holdings@2026-10-15||interval||% of instrument total",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "cf82c1d6c15df0333df5ff450a151a1c35248e06ebc88cc3dc5938de642961fb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-revision-horizon-ordering-holds-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "70%",
      "predFull": "70% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "872d94",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The EVENT is t",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.7,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over thr",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over three median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "872d94051f2ac143ff39c7892e23e9785f9bb6b201e1311043bd9e33be31d752"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-revision-horizon-ordering-holds-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "67.5714%",
      "predFull": "67.5714% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "655085",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The EVENT is t",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.6757142857142856,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over thr",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over three median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "655085d50d07ee1855b8fea428713bc37fdf4393775c4eee35c5ed35f10372f8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-revision-horizon-ordering-holds-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "68.6%",
      "predFull": "68.6% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "f0b999",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The EVENT is t",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.6859999999999999,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over thr",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_horizon_ordering_holds@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over three median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f0b999128e1da5acce2974f02ec6f94a00f729d1432e4e66747e87e410b2fe86"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-revision-is-material-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_is_material",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "75%",
      "predFull": "75% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "6bd64f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for weo_revision_is_material @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The pre-regist",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.75,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over med",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6bd64fac62f63545feac1370f6374de79ce3e9386729bee1c3590b6e7f8e48b3"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-revision-is-material-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_is_material",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "77.8571%",
      "predFull": "77.8571% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "3622d1",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for weo_revision_is_material @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The pre-regist",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.7785714285714286,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over med",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "3622d1be366dc46996f9e3cc23b13fde484086aa6c50e439d1775beee910912b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-revision-is-material-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "weo_revision_is_material",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "78.6%",
      "predFull": "78.6% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "32e0b9",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for weo_revision_is_material @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "For the April-2026 -> October-2026 revision round, compute the MEDIAN absolute revision (pp, order 0.0-1.0) across the 12 named pairs for each horizon class: settled (2024), nowcast (2026), forward (2027). The pre-regist",
      "qid": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.7859999999999999,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over med",
      "gkey": "q:weo_revision_is_material@2026-11-30||binary||indicator over median absolute revisions in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "32e0b968bf223af4e7848d5d0afe8c92d8680177d973d1dad050e5380e943a1e"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-world-2025-growth-revision-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "weo_world_2025_growth_revision",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "0.03 pp",
      "predFull": "0.03 [-0.2\u20130.25] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "7c92bd",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for weo_world_2025_growth_revision @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "Compute the October-2026 minus April-2026 revision to the 2025 world (G001) real GDP growth value, in percentage points (order 0.0-1.0 pp). Hit if within [-0.30, +0.30].",
      "qid": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.03,
      "lo": -0.2,
      "hi": 0.25,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "7c92bd075f660f8670ecf819db520d00e7a399ee312b9925601b6549dbf4e5d9"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-world-2025-growth-revision-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "weo_world_2025_growth_revision",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "0.0197 pp",
      "predFull": "0.0197 [-0.0556\u20130.095] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "cb915b",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for weo_world_2025_growth_revision @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "Compute the October-2026 minus April-2026 revision to the 2025 world (G001) real GDP growth value, in percentage points (order 0.0-1.0 pp). Hit if within [-0.30, +0.30].",
      "qid": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.019722921914357684,
      "lo": -0.05555992006991665,
      "hi": 0.09500576389863202,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "cb915b3c64e7fc896fa3c32bbdf77916c5b9971e28453ab58796176058e2d769"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-weo-world-2025-growth-revision-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "weo_world_2025_growth_revision",
      "due": "2026-11-30",
      "predShort": "0.026 pp",
      "predFull": "0.026 [-0.184\u20130.23] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "World",
      "sha": "fa8004",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for weo_world_2025_growth_revision @ 2026-11-30",
      "source": "IMF WEO October-2026 print from api.imf.org, differenced against the committed April-2026 WEO roots",
      "criteria": "Compute the October-2026 minus April-2026 revision to the 2025 world (G001) real GDP growth value, in percentage points (order 0.0-1.0 pp). Hit if within [-0.30, +0.30].",
      "qid": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.026000000000000002,
      "lo": -0.184,
      "hi": 0.22999999999999998,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:weo_world_2025_growth_revision@2026-11-30||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "fa800413a97f4b6f1bde3cb52e4af203fb60c8955dd1eb7acd17d4ef2dad981d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "3e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "3e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "362623",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for classical_flops @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 3e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "362623d3c46923b4c7a08bd6adb3d7bf8e5d5235cd614110361cdda8115d2953"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "5.186e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "5.186e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "6c1b70",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for classical_flops @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 5.185714285714286e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "6c1b707bb1c5f2902ccb9a0a490a3363815af2d134cf01d86f8dc8fda3af1c47"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-classical-flops-point-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "classical_flops",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "3.64e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "predFull": "3.64e18 FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "kind": "point",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.742e+18,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "8d0888",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for classical_flops @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "TOP500 November 2026 list: sum of Rmax across the list (top500.org)",
      "criteria": "Sum Rmax over the Nov-2026 TOP500 list, convert to FLOPS. Score = absolute percentage error (log10 error also recorded).",
      "qid": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 3.64e+18,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "FLOPS",
      "gkey": "q:classical_flops@2026-12-15||point||FLOPS (TOP500 aggregate trajectory point)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8d088898ab1061d561a820f88bacdca984a968d9ffd4199ed1fab4e77e94538b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "0.04 pp",
      "predFull": "0.04 [0.01\u20130.08] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "2d6f0d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.04,
      "lo": 0.01,
      "hi": 0.08,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2d6f0d8b82385a18f659279252993b8b25e4b83c1d13827f3bc345813661c72a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "0.0334 pp",
      "predFull": "0.0334 [0.0222\u20130.0445] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "97e96e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.03336887726590608,
      "lo": 0.022206206762783558,
      "hi": 0.0445315477690286,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "97e96e2c85b6d0c10fd0c1688d3e256e5102a708a1a9c55e1ee989185baf6c23"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "0.0384 pp",
      "predFull": "0.0384 [0.009\u20130.076] pp",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "724a68",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.038400000000000004,
      "lo": 0.009,
      "hi": 0.076,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "pp",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap@2026-12-15||interval||pp",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "724a68521703f82dac72f8f471a3994666db0be68821df5be7d6ff59f26687f8"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-materi-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "90%",
      "predFull": "90% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "8c55ef",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.9,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8c55ef6100c89886ae026f1c8360580c6d2169a761839a9b9a17ffdc03b587cd"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-materi-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "87.4286%",
      "predFull": "87.4286% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "817483",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8742857142857143,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "8174837db3f5d6f00c746b3a984b2c6feadabe8359c1fc16e9fc0ff36835667b"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-materi-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "89.4%",
      "predFull": "89.4% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "16961f",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8939999999999999,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_material@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "16961f6b6c062bcab8ad25e3d874ae9c15a420640b5df81cc7a88e351065c728"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-positi-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "85%",
      "predFull": "85% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "745b94",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.85,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "745b94ceaf794bfa19fa74cf8d3013616773f5a6f7621a4327e65f86e7dbbbdc"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-positi-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "82.5714%",
      "predFull": "82.5714% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "483556",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.8257142857142857,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "4835567b3a047382bbc24883be4a1d308cce95077782f8d7bdcc5d6d9871ba15"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-democratic-plutocratic-cpi-gap-is-positi-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive",
      "due": "2026-12-15",
      "predShort": "84.2%",
      "predFull": "84.2% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "caad1e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive @ 2026-12-15",
      "source": "FRED: the same 8 committed CPI component series, August-2026 through November-2026 CPI releases (the November-2026 CPI release publishes December 2026), reweighted with the lagged CE-2024 quintile shares",
      "criteria": "Rebuild the democratic (household-equal-weighted) and plutocratic (dollar-weighted) 8-category CPI for each of the August-2026 through November-2026 releases and take the MEAN of the four monthly democratic-minus-plutocr",
      "qid": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.842,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "indicator over a m",
      "gkey": "q:democratic_plutocratic_cpi_gap_is_positive@2026-12-15||binary||indicator over a mean monthly gap in pp (order 0.0-1.0 pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "caad1e4244eb0b40982310e15e9e47e48bb86eb6e828744d14cc1c93f2c0d256"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.398 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.398 [0.375\u20130.42] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "67fde3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates @ 2026-12-31",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.398,
      "lo": 0.375,
      "hi": 0.42,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "67fde3384cf5b85f7332226cfb86116f23236b519798f33e4c12ed9e5587b3f5"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3984 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3984 [0.3904\u20130.4063] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "59146c",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates @ 2026-12-31",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.39835324217846185,
      "lo": 0.3904493463132532,
      "hi": 0.40625713804367053,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "59146ccc8336edfd7ff2576c25c256bf36f2594813716e6b0d9e5db319e92c2f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-bea-io-2024-share-commodity325-in-indust-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates",
      "due": "2026-12-31",
      "predShort": "0.3982 share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "predFull": "0.3982 [0.377\u20130.421] share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 0.399111,
      "scope": "\u2014",
      "sha": "24abf0",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates @ 2026-12-31",
      "source": "BEA Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), Summary, 2024 - annual I-O update (apps.bea.gov AllTablesIO.zip)",
      "criteria": "When BEA publishes the 2024 Summary Use Table (Before Redefinitions, Producer Value), compute share = cell(commodity 325, industry 326) / TOTAL_INTERMEDIATE(industry 326). Hit if inside [0.35, 0.46]; report central APE a",
      "qid": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.3982,
      "lo": 0.377,
      "hi": 0.421,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "share of industry-",
      "gkey": "q:bea_io_2024_share_commodity325_in_industry326_intermediates@2026-12-31||interval||share of industry-326 total intermediate inputs",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "24abf0dbcfea593eb311ea60b39a7303ab6acd7468c48b636677bae8a542770d"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "50%",
      "predFull": "50% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "f057b0",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.5,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "f057b012dba41ee7fb344c37c9cb07a27fe67831e1f20bfb9d5f1e5b172561bd"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "45.8571%",
      "predFull": "45.8571% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "55f400",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.4585714285714286,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "55f400a60cb0e08bc450fedc7e636e3ab3ab760085f0bee3a62d83ecc06fd324"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-binary-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "51%",
      "predFull": "51% probability",
      "kind": "binary",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "200470",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED monthly CPIs: CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SETD (motor-vehicle insurance), CPIMEDSL (medical), CPIAUCSL (headline)",
      "criteria": "For each series compute g = (calendar-2026 annual mean / calendar-2025 annual mean - 1) in percent, annual means over all published months (2025 means rest on 11 months given the permanent Oct-2025 shutdown gap - same co",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 0.51,
      "lo": null,
      "hi": null,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "probability",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_wedge@2027-02-15||binary||probability (event = 2026 felt-minus-headline wedge >= 0.3pp)",
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "2004709d8cfe239781c9a1058de2104dc048a0db4e203038fefed6f38bfc2cec"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [1.8\u20133.6] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "20cc34",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 1.8,
      "hi": 3.6,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 1.8,
        "high": 3.6
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "20cc3458a332262231b375341999aa5f118c3d8a95fbb89c6172dc9fc37bcf3f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.644 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.644 [2.346\u20132.941] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a4e3a6",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.6437164150371957,
      "lo": 2.3463779614453157,
      "hi": 2.9410548686290756,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6437164150371957,
        "low": 2.3463779614453157,
        "high": 2.9410548686290756
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a4e3a63e778c54bb9481e4336916b1127deb180207fba45c69877f0dbbc2c30a"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.56 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.56 [1.7\u20133.6] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 2.61,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "53ce6e",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for basket_cpi @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.56,
      "lo": 1.7,
      "hi": 3.6,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.56,
        "low": 1.7,
        "high": 3.6
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "53ce6e96919eebae5dd7a45dc047c9670a6b2c0648de7a041c4485235027e9d1"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.6 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.6 [1.8\u20133.5] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "a5582d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for basket_cpi_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.6,
      "lo": 1.8,
      "hi": 3.5,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.6,
        "low": 1.8,
        "high": 3.5
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "a5582de8e52a7a56cd0e756be6ce4854929f7cc84a0567c20a71cc408f206bbb"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.632 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.632 [2.338\u20132.927] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "fa048d",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for basket_cpi_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.632312777158965,
      "lo": 2.3375118239575716,
      "hi": 2.9271137303603583,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.632312777158965,
        "low": 2.3375118239575716,
        "high": 2.9271137303603583
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "fa048dc4706d515274fa089baecd1468d6a766bdc6e782f71a40d5a1cd3aed2f"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-basket-cpi-p50-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "basket_cpi_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "2.56 % yoy",
      "predFull": "2.56 [1.7\u20133.54] % yoy",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "4db200",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for basket_cpi_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED CPIAUCSL: 2026 annual average vs 2025 annual average, % change",
      "criteria": "Compute CPIAUCSL calendar-2026 mean / calendar-2025 mean - 1, in percent. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 2.56,
      "lo": 1.7,
      "hi": 3.54,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy",
      "gkey": "q:basket_cpi_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy",
      "obsKey": "yoy_pct.CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy",
        "value": 2.56,
        "low": 1.7,
        "high": 3.54
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "4db200f595129e7d13fd71df72c36de453bf9c363022caa8c007cee930f34d22"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.1 [0.2\u20132.2] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "485a10",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for real_wage @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.1,
      "lo": 0.2,
      "hi": 2.2,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.1,
        "low": 0.2,
        "high": 2.2
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "485a104badfe5f717530a921b14b4b5c46464a68b0b32b502c8472e71db3bbf6"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.256 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.256 [0.8711\u20131.641] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "7ebe67",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for real_wage @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.2559344453432084,
      "lo": 0.871065704804827,
      "hi": 1.6408031858815897,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.2559344453432084,
        "low": 0.871065704804827,
        "high": 1.6408031858815897
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "7ebe67fbcaf99a529765e4f1cc40d6ef50924b0ee998f261492b8f6c6a790a6c"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-real-wage-interval-ens-trimmed_mean-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.18 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.18 [-0.06\u20132.4] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "naive_value": 1.35,
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "b2e345",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for real_wage @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.1800000000000002,
      "lo": -0.059999999999999984,
      "hi": 2.4,
      "model": "ens\u00b7trimmed",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.1800000000000002,
        "low": -0.059999999999999984,
        "high": 2.4
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "b2e345a2798170ab971efff6d24d47f2449d9422bafb3c970a4a147105363057"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-median-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.1 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.1 [0.2\u20132.2] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "36db99",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:median of 7 models for real_wage_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.1,
      "lo": 0.2,
      "hi": 2.2,
      "model": "ens\u00b7median",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.1,
        "low": 0.2,
        "high": 2.2
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "36db99640a3d98556fcd23473dfef29c35ecc66e500b86123343336001198232"
    },
    {
      "id": "pred-2026-09-04-tourney-real-wage-p50-interval-ens-inverse_variance-raw",
      "metric": "real_wage_p50",
      "due": "2027-02-15",
      "predShort": "1.256 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.256 [0.8822\u20131.63] % yoy real",
      "kind": "interval",
      "arm": "ensemble",
      "status": "open",
      "scope": "US",
      "sha": "29cac3",
      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:inverse_variance of 7 models for real_wage_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
      "prompt_version": 3,
      "val": 1.2558852884372809,
      "lo": 0.8821517392525224,
      "hi": 1.6296188376220393,
      "model": "ens\u00b7inv-var",
      "unit": "% yoy real",
      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
      "marker": {
        "due": "2027-02-15",
        "kind": "interval",
        "unit": "% yoy real",
        "value": 1.2558852884372809,
        "low": 0.8821517392525224,
        "high": 1.6296188376220393
      },
      "arm_label": "cold",
      "validation_status": "experimental",
      "core_sha256": "29cac39e4abfe71bdb5a4d2f2c190027dede19d200002e9ca49de5d5e2bad9b1"
    },
    {
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      "predShort": "1.16 % yoy real",
      "predFull": "1.16 [1.11e-17\u20132.34] % yoy real",
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      "statement": "Forecast tournament (raw) \u2014 ensemble:trimmed_mean of 7 models for real_wage_p50 @ 2027-02-15",
      "source": "FRED AHETPI deflated by CPIAUCSL, 2026 annual average vs 2025, % change",
      "criteria": "Real wage index = AHETPI/CPIAUCSL; compute calendar-2026 mean vs calendar-2025 mean, % change. Hit if within [low, high].",
      "qid": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15",
      "sealed_at": "2026-09-04",
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      "val": 1.16,
      "lo": 1.1102230246251566e-17,
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      "gkey": "q:real_wage_p50@2027-02-15||interval||% yoy real",
      "obsKey": "ratio_yoy_pct.AHETPI-CPIAUCSL",
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      "predShort": "160 billion USD (calendar year)",
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      "val": 160.0,
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      "gkey": "q:accelerator_demand@2027-03-01||point||billion USD (calendar year)",
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      "predShort": "186.43 billion USD (calendar year)",
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      "source": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2027 (global installed solar PV, end-2026)",
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      "qid": "q:capacity_solar@2027-04-15",
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      "val": 2730.0,
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}