Seven short lessons

Lesson 1 of 7

Lesson 1: what a sealed forecast is

Five parts of a sealed forecast, one lane read together, how the seal is made, what it proves and does not, where lanes live, an exercise.

The presenter is a computer-generated character with an AI voice. Figures were checked against the live pages on October 7, 2026; the daily reading shown is as of that date. Research, not investment advice.

Lesson 2 of 7

Lesson 2: how a forecast is scored

Three kinds of claim, a hit and a miss with the Brier rule, the naive anchor and skill ratio, calibration and resolution, when grades arrive, why misses are published.

Filmed before the first grading day. The first forecasts have since been scored. Noted 2026-11-01.

The presenter is a computer-generated character with an AI voice. Figures were checked against the live pages on October 7, 2026; the daily reading shown is as of that date. Research, not investment advice.

Lesson 3 of 7

Lesson 3: reading the fragility index

What the index combines, the replay, the scale and band, what it is not, shock-response experiments, an exercise. It shows the index’s earlier edition; the inputs have since moved to public-domain sources.

The presenter is a computer-generated character with an AI voice. Figures were checked against the live pages on October 7, 2026; the daily reading shown is as of that date. Research, not investment advice.

Lesson 4 of 7

Lesson 4: stocks, flows and feedback

Stocks and flows, accounting that closes, the Godley table, feedback loops, debt that ratchets, the model families.

The presenter is a computer-generated character with an AI voice. Figures were checked against the live pages on October 7, 2026; the daily reading shown is as of that date. Research, not investment advice.

Lesson 5 of 7

Lesson 5: scenarios and uncertainty

Three kinds of statement, the fan, the flip probability (18 % composed model; 47 % companion check), calibration to 2008 and 2020, written limits, reading a scenario card.

The presenter is a computer-generated character with an AI voice. Figures were checked against the live pages on October 7, 2026; the daily reading shown is as of that date. Research, not investment advice.

Lesson 6 of 7

Lesson 6: evidence records with the Comuvia SDK

Why records, install, the three core records, identity (RFC 8785, SHA-256), what the library refuses, the selector, the six CLI verbs.

The presenter is a computer-generated character with an AI voice. Figures were checked against the live pages on October 7, 2026; the daily reading shown is as of that date. Research, not investment advice.

Lesson 7 of 7

Lesson 7: from a record page to your own packet

The six-step chain behind a record page, one public packet by the numbers, reproduce a quotation, score a forecast, corrections, reading ForeGlass with the SDK.

The presenter is a computer-generated character with an AI voice. Figures were checked against the live pages on October 7, 2026; the daily reading shown is as of that date. Research, not investment advice.

Companion: the model ladder (code example)

From a shellfish bed to a GPU: the model laddercode pending

Four examples in order: an economy with no money, the Goodwin cycle, one debt channel, the full build with a four-arm CPU/GPU ladder; what they are and are not.

code Example code: publication pending; the link will appear here when the collection is released.

The presenter is a computer-generated character with an AI voice. Figures were checked against the live pages on October 7, 2026; the daily reading shown is as of that date. Research, not investment advice.