United States · financial-system awareness
See current market conditions, underlying vulnerabilities and what the models can tell us about a shock.
ForeGlass overall fragility
The available composite is the experimental market index, which combines four market signals. The structural readings below measure different mechanisms and dates; they are not combined into an overall score.
Explore the measures below →Availability is not a confidence level or evidence of low risk.
Explore separately sealed forecasts →Each chart keeps its own cadence and units. Shading marks named US recessions; scenario experiments retain their stated assumptions.
What do market prices say about current stress?
Loading dated reading…
Higher means more stress in this experimental 0–1 market index; lower means less. It is not a recession probability. Historical values are retrospective replays.
Reading unavailable until the dated evidence is checked.
History, future scenarios and method →How much income is committed to required debt payments?
Checking evidence identity…
Higher means more household income committed to required debt payments; lower means less. There is no universal safe cutoff.
Reading unavailable until the dated evidence is checked.
Debt-service history and explanation →How do broad liquid assets compare with short-term liabilities?
Checking evidence identity…
Higher means more broad liquid assets per dollar of short-term liabilities; lower means less coverage. This is not all immediately available cash.
Reading unavailable until the dated evidence is checked.
Liquidity history and explanation →How far could a specified shock spread through the modeled network?
Checking evidence identity…
Higher means more distress amplification under the same assumed shock. This experiment does not measure current systemic risk or its probability.
Reading unavailable until the dated evidence is checked.
Compare network treatments and assumptions →How is freight activity changing?
Checking evidence identity…
Higher means faster freight-volume growth, not safer supply chains. Lower growth can reflect demand or supply changes.
Reading unavailable until the dated evidence is checked.
Supply context and explanation →How do federal receipts and outlays compare?
Checking evidence identity…
With receipts unchanged, higher outlays widen the deficit; with outlays unchanged, higher receipts narrow it. Neither alone measures policy capacity.
Reading unavailable until the dated evidence is checked.
Fiscal history and explanation →Separate model experiment
Compare real GDP, employment and debt paths in the shock response simulation, a dynamic model in the spirit of Keen–Minsky debt-cycle models. The paths are conditional on an assumed starting state, not a probability-ranked forecast.
Source publication dates and retained vintages differ. Loading this page does not re-check whether the publishers have released newer figures.
How the market indicator works · Experimental country comparisons · All detailed charts
Overview and dimension links for agents (JSON) · Evidence profile (JSON)
