Country comparisons

Exploratory indicators use different inputs and are not a ranking of economic safety.

Static comparator snapshot: 2026-08-21. Each line keeps its own observation period. Live refresh may provide newer data.

Research preview — exploratory

Experimental country comparisons

The country comparison chart is exploratory. Each country line is built from declared proxy inputs, normalised to that country’s own history, with its own measurement period — so the lines are not comparable to the US instrument or to each other, and none of this is a safety ranking. Countries are listed alphabetically, which carries no meaning.

Approximate comparison indicators — quarterly

Not a ranking. The United States line is the sealed instrument; the grey lines are approximate indicators built from different, weaker inputs. A lower number on one line does not mean that economy is safer than another - the two are not the same measurement.

Compare the sealed US line with

Hover a name to pick its line out of the grey; click to hide it. Pick one comparison line above; tap the chart to read any quarter. Window: 2023Q3 onward - the earliest quarter every comparison leg has data, so no line is drawn over a gap. Each line’s date is its own newest complete quarter — shown per line, because the gaps differ.

There is deliberately no threshold line on this chart. The 0.40 criterion belongs to the sealed US instrument, where it is explained; the comparison lines have never been calibrated against it, so drawing it here would only invite a reading none of these lines can support.

Historical context: grey areas mark US recession peak-to-trough months; violet areas and dashed markers identify selected international, banking and policy events. Names appear in lanes above the plots. These annotations do not enter the index or establish what caused its movement.

Read the crisis dates, definitions and sources

Selected context, not an exhaustive crisis catalogue. Monthly recession shading includes the peak month through the trough month; NBER’s recession-duration count begins in the month after the peak. Boundaries are month precision, not official day-level dates. Recessions were dated retrospectively. A US interval does not classify every country as being in recession.

Label	Dates	Type	Interpretation / source
Asian financial crisis	Jul 1997–Dec 1998	Selected stress window	Selected international crisis; not a US recession band. Source
Dot-com / 2001 downturn	Mar–Nov 2001	US recession context	US peak-to-trough months. The technology-stock decline began before this interval. Source
Global financial crisis	Dec 2007–Jun 2009	US recession context	US peak-to-trough months; the wider financial crisis has different boundaries. Source
COVID-19 downturn	Feb–Apr 2020	US recession context	US peak-to-trough months, dated retrospectively. Source
Ukraine invasion	24 Feb 2022	Dated event	Start of Russia’s full-scale invasion; a dated event, not a crisis-duration estimate. Source
SVB failure	10 Mar 2023	Dated event	A bank failure marker; not the duration of all 2023 banking stress. Source
2025 tariff shock	2–11 Apr 2025	Selected stress window	Selected trade-policy market-stress window discussed in the Fed’s April report; not a designated US recession. Source

Latest readings

Economy	Reading	Category	As of	Basis
United States	0.288698	watch · authored US category	2026-08-20	Experimental sealed index
Germany	0.679796	Uncalibrated	2026Q1	Approximate proxy inputs
France	0.540564	Uncalibrated	2026Q1	Approximate proxy inputs
Italy	0.285254	Uncalibrated	2026Q1	Approximate proxy inputs
Spain	0.5123	Uncalibrated	2026Q1	Approximate proxy inputs
United Kingdom	0.488601	Uncalibrated	2026Q1	Approximate proxy inputs
Japan	0.353864	Uncalibrated	2026Q2	Approximate proxy inputs
Canada	0.5476	Uncalibrated	2026Q2	Approximate proxy inputs
India	0.277468	Uncalibrated	2026Q2	Approximate proxy inputs

Economy

Reading

Category

As of

Basis

United States

0.288698

watch · authored US category

2026-08-20

Experimental sealed index

Germany

0.679796

Uncalibrated

2026Q1

Approximate proxy inputs

France

0.540564

Uncalibrated

2026Q1

Approximate proxy inputs

Italy

0.285254

Uncalibrated

2026Q1

Approximate proxy inputs

Spain

0.5123

Uncalibrated

2026Q1

Approximate proxy inputs

United Kingdom

0.488601

Uncalibrated

2026Q1

Approximate proxy inputs

Japan

0.353864

Uncalibrated

2026Q2

Approximate proxy inputs

Canada

0.5476

Uncalibrated

2026Q2

Approximate proxy inputs

India

0.277468

Uncalibrated

2026Q2

Approximate proxy inputs

The range on the US row is not a confidence interval. It is the settling range of an open quarter: given the daily extremes already observed, that is where the quarter could still end up when it closes. It says nothing about how uncertain the model is. Comparison rows carry no range and no category label - not because they are more certain, but because their uncertainty (proxy substitution, publication lag, missing legs) is not quantified and the US model’s categories have never been calibrated to them. Each row’s as-of column is its newest complete quarter; it can sit several quarters behind the US row, so compare dates before comparing values.

Retained comparison values

Exploratory country comparison indicators

different indicator scales; not a safety ranking — The US index and proxy lines use different inputs; neither their levels nor the US threshold establish a country risk ranking.

Y axis: Indicator value · not a common measurement or probability

X axis: calendar dates; each series retains its own observation or simulation cadence.

United States · experimental sealed indexGermany · approximate, different inputsFrance · approximate, different inputsItaly · approximate, different inputsSpain · approximate, different inputsUnited Kingdom · approximate, different inputsJapan · approximate, different inputsCanada · approximate, different inputsIndia · approximate, different inputs

Read values as a table

Each line keeps its own observation date. A missing point is not zero. Approximate comparators have not been calibrated against the US criterion. Units: different indicator scales; not a safety ranking.
Date / observation period	United States · experimental sealed index	Germany · approximate, different inputs	France · approximate, different inputs	Italy · approximate, different inputs	Spain · approximate, different inputs	United Kingdom · approximate, different inputs	Japan · approximate, different inputs	Canada · approximate, different inputs	India · approximate, different inputs
2023Q3	0.452	0.76	0.782	0.349	0.537	0.601	0.451	0.729	0.288
2023Q4	0.437	0.761	0.782	0.364	0.572	0.607	0.457	0.735	0.289
2024Q1	0.449	0.705	0.742	0.427	0.571	0.572	0.422	0.713	0.274
2024Q2	0.455	0.667	0.71	0.447	0.559	0.544	0.394	0.69	0.247
2024Q3	0.464	0.658	0.706	0.469	0.564	0.541	0.391	0.69	0.244
2024Q4	0.47	0.636	0.685	0.461	0.549	0.512	0.362	0.663	0.24
2025Q1	0.483	0.665	0.666	0.448	0.583	0.506	0.356	0.681	0.232
2025Q2	0.507	0.722	0.697	0.483	0.641	0.556	0.406	0.743	0.24
2025Q3	0.494	0.691	0.654	0.406	0.61	0.519	0.369	0.713	0.226
2025Q4	0.442	0.681	0.638	0.361	0.59	0.513	0.363	0.71	0.228
2026Q1	0.4	0.68	0.541	0.285	0.512	0.489	0.367	0.672	0.246
2026Q2	0.343	—	—	—	—	—	0.354	0.548	0.277
2026Q3	0.289	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Country comparisons

Experimental country comparisons

Exploratory country comparison indicators

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