Comuvia ForeGlass™

Daily reading

Daily fragility, two perspectives.

Monitor an experimental US market-condition index and explore a simulated estimate of sensitivity to a borrowing-rate shock. The market index uses a 0–1 scale and offers conditional future scenarios. The shock-response chart combines observed inflation-adjusted GDP with explicitly assumed model paths. Quarterly GDP and daily market inputs retain their own cadence. Each has its own units and limits. Neither is a recession probability.

US market index · Shock response · Country comparisons · Evidence by dimension · Types of vulnerability · How the market index is calculated

US market fragility index — experimental · sealed record

What it cannot see: the reading says nothing about exogenous shocks — a war, a pandemic, a policy accident — that arrive from outside its four market drivers. Its retrospective record on credit-cycle drawdowns is mixed: elevated ahead of the dot-com peak, only watch before the 2008 crisis, and no elevated lead before the 2020 drawdown. Read it as a monitor, not a proven leading indicator.

Historical index and conditional future paths

Solid line: historical index. Dashed paths: conditional on authored future inputs, with no assigned probabilities. They are separate from the sealed prediction.

Future paths on the same diagram

Retained scenario snapshot: 2026-09-20; market inputs through 2026-09-18. The static diagram belongs to this dated snapshot. JavaScript checks its identity against the reading above before enabling comparison.

At 2027Q3: Optimistic · easing market stress 0.132; Reference · unchanged drivers 0.240; Pessimistic · higher market stress 0.894. These are conditional calculations with no assigned probabilities.

Market fragility: conditional paths from the retained snapshotUS market fragility index · 0–1. Calendar time on the horizontal axis. Observations and scenarios retain their own dates and frequency. Exact recorded values appear in the table; a dash means no value exists on that date.00.250.50.7512016Q42017Q42018Q32019Q22020Q12020Q42021Q32022Q22023Q12023Q42024Q32025Q22026Q12026Q4Retained index history · provisional originRetained index history · provisional origin; 2016Q4 · index replay: 0.155474 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2017Q1 · index replay: 0.144907 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2017Q2 · index replay: 0.14059 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2017Q3 · index replay: 0.130019 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2017Q4 · index replay: 0.113136 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2018Q1 · index replay: 0.122521 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2018Q2 · index replay: 0.134428 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2018Q3 · index replay: 0.173642 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2018Q4 · index replay: 0.227501 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2019Q1 · index replay: 0.245535 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2019Q2 · index replay: 0.247434 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2019Q3 · index replay: 0.258499 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2019Q4 · index replay: 0.254821 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2020Q1 · index replay: 0.337876 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2020Q2 · index replay: 0.42967 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2020Q3 · index replay: 0.416602 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2020Q4 · index replay: 0.395503 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2021Q1 · index replay: 0.365229 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2021Q2 · index replay: 0.308823 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2021Q3 · index replay: 0.241566 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2021Q4 · index replay: 0.203053 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2022Q1 · index replay: 0.23062 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2022Q2 · index replay: 0.302921 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2022Q3 · index replay: 0.427195 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2022Q4 · index replay: 0.521801 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2023Q1 · index replay: 0.497715 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2023Q2 · index replay: 0.480689 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2023Q3 · index replay: 0.45183 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2023Q4 · index replay: 0.436774 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2024Q1 · index replay: 0.448943 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2024Q2 · index replay: 0.455027 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2024Q3 · index replay: 0.464269 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2024Q4 · index replay: 0.46978 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2025Q1 · index replay: 0.482905 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2025Q2 · index replay: 0.5073 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2025Q3 · index replay: 0.49405 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2025Q4 · index replay: 0.441682 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2026Q1 · index replay: 0.400211 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2026Q2 · index replay: 0.342518 index points (0–1), not a probabilityRetained index history · provisional origin; 2026Q3 · provisional through 2026-09-18: 0.289582 index points (0–1), not a probabilityOptimistic · easing market stressReference · unchanged driversPessimistic · higher market stressScenario origin · inputs through 2026-09-18Scenario origin · inputs through 2026-09-18Scenario origin · inputs through 2026-09-18
History alone uses a 0–0.66 frame (extending if needed). With future scenarios visible, the frame is 0–1 so stress paths are not clipped. The line steps at quarter ends by construction — daily movement enters only through quarter-to-date driver means. Historical points are replays computed from today’s source vintages, not an archive of values published on those dates.
Historical index · solidOptimistic · easing market stress · conditionalReference · unchanged drivers · conditionalPessimistic · higher market stress · conditional
Read future scenario values
Conditional index values; no assigned probabilities. Current quarter assumed to settle unchanged.
QuarterOptimistic · easing market stressReference · unchanged driversPessimistic · higher market stress
2026Q40.2057030.2631130.611791
2027Q10.1637630.2498790.772895
2027Q20.1427940.2432620.853448
2027Q30.1323090.2399540.893724
Scenario assumptions and how to read the paths

Optimistic means lower index stress, pessimistic means higher stress, and reference holds the current drivers unchanged. None is a most-probable forecast; no probabilities or confidence intervals have been established.

Authored inputs held in each future quarter; no probability ranking
Scenario10y–2y yield spread (pp)Baa–10y credit spread (pp)VIXCAPE
Optimistic · easing market stress11.51430
Pessimistic · higher market stress-0.543540
ReferenceHold all four origin driver inputs unchanged. The index may still move as smoothing and retained history evolve.

The provisional quarter is assumed to close unchanged. The model then processes the stated inputs once per future quarter. Its retained inversion memory and smoothing can change the reference index even when drivers stay constant. The 0–1 scale accommodates all scenarios; its values are not recession probabilities. “Optimistic” does not imply an investment return.

Download conditional paths, origin identity and declared assumptions (JSON). A revised daily reading or historical replay requires a new matching scenario snapshot; mismatched paths are hidden.

Shock-response fragility estimate

Scenario response · illustrative calendar dates

Compare observed US real GDP with the model’s no-shock and higher-borrowing-rate paths on one calendar. GDP is already adjusted for inflation. These conditional paths illustrate how a shock changes output; they are not a calibrated US GDP forecast or a recession probability.

Choose the model assumptions

Latest observation: 2026Q2, $24.271 trillion in chained 2017 dollars, annualized. Showing ten years of observed history plus the selected 3-year model experiment. Observations after the assumed start remain visible for comparison.

US real GDP: observed history and conditional model paths

trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rate — CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE — not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches

Y axis: US real GDP · trillions of inflation-adjusted 2017 dollars (annual rate)

US real GDP: observed history and conditional model pathsUS real GDP · trillions of inflation-adjusted 2017 dollars (annual rate). Calendar time on the horizontal axis. Observations and scenarios retain their own dates and frequency. Exact recorded values appear in the table; a dash means no value exists on that date.COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 202018.520.422.324.126201820202022202420262028Observed US real GDP · quarterlyObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2016Q2 · observed quarter: 19.0627 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2016Q3 · observed quarter: 19.1979 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2016Q4 · observed quarter: 19.3044 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2017Q1 · observed quarter: 19.3983 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2017Q2 · observed quarter: 19.5069 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2017Q3 · observed quarter: 19.6608 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2017Q4 · observed quarter: 19.8824 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2018Q1 · observed quarter: 20.0441 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2018Q2 · observed quarter: 20.1505 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2018Q3 · observed quarter: 20.2762 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2018Q4 · observed quarter: 20.3049 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2019Q1 · observed quarter: 20.4316 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2019Q2 · observed quarter: 20.6023 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2019Q3 · observed quarter: 20.8433 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2019Q4 · observed quarter: 20.9854 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2020Q1 · observed quarter: 20.7092 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2020Q2 · observed quarter: 19.078 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2020Q3 · observed quarter: 20.5589 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2020Q4 · observed quarter: 20.7919 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2021Q1 · observed quarter: 21.0821 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2021Q2 · observed quarter: 21.4409 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2021Q3 · observed quarter: 21.6178 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2021Q4 · observed quarter: 21.9887 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2022Q1 · observed quarter: 21.9327 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2022Q2 · observed quarter: 21.967 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2022Q3 · observed quarter: 22.1256 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2022Q4 · observed quarter: 22.2783 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2023Q1 · observed quarter: 22.4396 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2023Q2 · observed quarter: 22.5805 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2023Q3 · observed quarter: 22.841 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2023Q4 · observed quarter: 23.0338 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2024Q1 · observed quarter: 23.0821 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2024Q2 · observed quarter: 23.2865 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2024Q3 · observed quarter: 23.4786 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2024Q4 · observed quarter: 23.5865 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2025Q1 · observed quarter: 23.5482 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2025Q2 · observed quarter: 23.771 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2025Q3 · observed quarter: 24.0268 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2025Q4 · observed quarter: 24.0557 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2026Q1 · observed quarter: 24.1804 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateObserved US real GDP · quarterly; 2026Q2 · observed quarter: 24.2706 trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rateD_A/R_LOW · no-shock modelD_A/R_LOW · +2pp rate scenarioD_A/R_HIGH · no-shock modelD_A/R_HIGH · +2pp rate scenarioD_B/R_LOW · no-shock modelD_B/R_LOW · +2pp rate scenarioD_B/R_HIGH · no-shock modelD_B/R_HIGH · +2pp rate scenario2025Q4 GDP level used as the assumed model starting scale2025Q4 GDP level used as the assumed model starting scale2025Q4 GDP level used as the assumed model starting scale

X axis: calendar dates; each series retains its own observation or simulation cadence.

2025Q4 GDP level used as the assumed model starting scale

Shaded historical context; it does not assign a cause to every movement.

  • COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 2020 Source
Observed US real GDP · quarterlyD_A/R_LOW · no-shock modelD_A/R_LOW · +2pp rate scenarioD_A/R_HIGH · no-shock modelD_A/R_HIGH · +2pp rate scenarioD_B/R_LOW · no-shock modelD_B/R_LOW · +2pp rate scenarioD_B/R_HIGH · no-shock modelD_B/R_HIGH · +2pp rate scenario
Read values as a table
Quarterly observed GDP and GDP-scaled model nodes. Scenario rates are conditional model output under an assumed state — not a GDP forecast of any kind, official or otherwise, and no probability attaches; missing cells are not zero. Units: trillion chained 2017 USD, annual rate.
Date / observation periodObserved US real GDP · quarterlyD_A/R_LOW · no-shock modelD_A/R_LOW · +2pp rate scenarioD_A/R_HIGH · no-shock modelD_A/R_HIGH · +2pp rate scenarioD_B/R_LOW · no-shock modelD_B/R_LOW · +2pp rate scenarioD_B/R_HIGH · no-shock modelD_B/R_HIGH · +2pp rate scenario
2016Q2 · observed quarter19.0627————————
2016Q3 · observed quarter19.1979————————
2016Q4 · observed quarter19.3044————————
2017Q1 · observed quarter19.3983————————
2017Q2 · observed quarter19.5069————————
2017Q3 · observed quarter19.6608————————
2017Q4 · observed quarter19.8824————————
2018Q1 · observed quarter20.0441————————
2018Q2 · observed quarter20.1505————————
2018Q3 · observed quarter20.2762————————
2018Q4 · observed quarter20.3049————————
2019Q1 · observed quarter20.4316————————
2019Q2 · observed quarter20.6023————————
2019Q3 · observed quarter20.8433————————
2019Q4 · observed quarter20.9854————————
2020Q1 · observed quarter20.7092————————
2020Q2 · observed quarter19.078————————
2020Q3 · observed quarter20.5589————————
2020Q4 · observed quarter20.7919————————
2021Q1 · observed quarter21.0821————————
2021Q2 · observed quarter21.4409————————
2021Q3 · observed quarter21.6178————————
2021Q4 · observed quarter21.9887————————
2022Q1 · observed quarter21.9327————————
2022Q2 · observed quarter21.967————————
2022Q3 · observed quarter22.1256————————
2022Q4 · observed quarter22.2783————————
2023Q1 · observed quarter22.4396————————
2023Q2 · observed quarter22.5805————————
2023Q3 · observed quarter22.841————————
2023Q4 · observed quarter23.0338————————
2024Q1 · observed quarter23.0821————————
2024Q2 · observed quarter23.2865————————
2024Q3 · observed quarter23.4786————————
2024Q4 · observed quarter23.5865————————
2025Q1 · observed quarter23.5482————————
2025Q2 · observed quarter23.771————————
2025Q3 · observed quarter24.0268————————
2025Q4 · observed quarter24.0557————————
2026-01-01 · model year 0.000000—24.055724.055724.055724.055724.055724.055724.055724.0557
2026-01-06 · model year 0.015625—24.079724.078824.078324.077524.079524.078124.077424.076
2026-01-12 · model year 0.031250—24.103124.101224.100424.098624.102724.099924.098524.0958
2026-01-18 · model year 0.046875—24.125924.123224.121924.119324.125424.121124.119124.115
2026-01-23 · model year 0.062500—24.148224.144624.142924.139424.147524.141924.139224.1338
2026-01-29 · model year 0.078125—24.169924.165524.163424.159124.169124.162124.158724.152
2026-02-04 · model year 0.093750—24.19124.185824.183324.178124.190124.181724.177824.1697
2026-02-09 · model year 0.109375—24.211624.205524.202624.196724.210524.200824.196324.187
2026-02-15 · model year 0.125000—24.231724.224724.221524.214724.230424.219424.214224.2037
2026-02-21 · model year 0.140625—24.251124.243424.239724.232224.249724.237524.231724.2199
2026-02-27 · model year 0.156250—24.2724.261524.257524.249224.268424.25524.248624.2356
2026-03-04 · model year 0.171875—24.288324.27924.274624.265624.286624.271924.26524.2508
2026-03-10 · model year 0.187500—24.30624.29624.291324.281624.304224.288424.280924.2656
2026-03-16 · model year 0.203125—24.323224.312524.307424.29724.321324.304324.296224.2798
2026-03-21 · model year 0.218750—24.339824.328424.32324.311924.337724.319624.311124.2936
2026-03-27 · model year 0.234375—24.355824.343824.33824.326224.353724.334524.325424.3069
2026Q1 · observed quarter24.1804————————
2026-04-02 · model year 0.250000—24.371324.358624.352624.340124.36924.348824.339224.3197
2026-04-07 · model year 0.265625—24.386224.372924.366624.353524.383824.362624.352624.3321
2026-04-13 · model year 0.281250—24.400624.386724.380124.366424.398124.37624.365524.344
2026-04-19 · model year 0.296875—24.414524.424.39324.378824.411924.388824.377824.3555
2026-04-25 · model year 0.312500—24.427824.412724.405524.390824.425124.401124.389824.3665
2026-04-30 · model year 0.328125—24.440624.42524.417624.402224.437824.41324.401224.3771
2026-05-06 · model year 0.343750—24.452824.436824.429124.413324.449924.424424.412224.3873
2026-05-12 · model year 0.359375—24.464624.448124.440124.423824.461624.435324.422824.3971
2026-05-17 · model year 0.375000—24.475924.458924.450724.43424.472824.445824.432924.4065
2026-05-23 · model year 0.390625—24.486624.469224.460924.443724.483524.455824.442624.4155
2026-05-29 · model year 0.406250—24.49724.479124.470624.45324.493824.465424.451924.4241
2026-06-03 · model year 0.421875—24.506824.488624.479924.461924.503524.474624.460824.4323
2026-06-09 · model year 0.437500—24.516224.497724.488824.470424.512924.483424.469324.4402
2026-06-15 · model year 0.453125—24.525224.506324.497224.478524.521824.491724.477424.4478
2026-06-21 · model year 0.468750—24.533724.514524.505324.486324.530324.499724.485124.455
2026-06-26 · model year 0.484375—24.541824.522424.51324.493724.538324.507424.492524.4619
2026Q2 · observed quarter24.2706————————
2026-07-02 · model year 0.500000—24.549524.529824.520424.500724.54624.514624.499624.4684
2026-07-08 · model year 0.515625—24.556924.536924.527324.507424.553324.521524.506324.4747
2026-07-13 · model year 0.531250—24.563824.543724.53424.513824.560224.528124.512724.4807
2026-07-19 · model year 0.546875—24.570424.550124.540324.519924.566824.534424.518824.4864
2026-07-25 · model year 0.562500—24.576724.556224.546324.525724.57324.540324.524624.4918
2026-07-31 · model year 0.578125—24.582624.561924.551924.531224.578924.54624.530124.497
2026-08-05 · model year 0.593750—24.588224.567424.557324.536424.584524.551324.535324.5019
2026-08-11 · model year 0.609375—24.593524.572624.562424.541324.589824.556424.540324.5066
2026-08-17 · model year 0.625000—24.598524.577524.567324.54624.594824.561224.54524.5111
2026-08-22 · model year 0.640625—24.603224.582124.571924.550524.599524.565824.549524.5153
2026-08-28 · model year 0.656250—24.607624.586524.576224.554724.603924.570224.553724.5193
2026-09-03 · model year 0.671875—24.611824.590624.580324.558724.608124.574324.557824.5232
2026-09-08 · model year 0.687500—24.615824.594524.584224.562524.612124.578124.561624.5268
2026-09-14 · model year 0.703125—24.619524.598224.587824.566124.615824.581824.565224.5303
2026-09-20 · model year 0.718750—24.62324.601724.591324.569524.619324.585324.568724.5336
2026-09-26 · model year 0.734375—24.626324.60524.594624.572824.622624.588624.571924.5368
2026-10-01 · model year 0.750000—24.629424.608124.597724.575824.625724.591724.57524.5398
2026-10-07 · model year 0.765625—24.632324.61124.600624.578724.628724.594724.57824.5427
2026-10-13 · model year 0.781250—24.635124.613824.603424.581524.631424.597524.580824.5454
2026-10-18 · model year 0.796875—24.637724.616524.606124.584124.63424.600224.583524.548
2026-10-24 · model year 0.812500—24.640124.618924.608624.586624.636524.602724.58624.5505
2026-10-30 · model year 0.828125—24.642424.621324.610924.58924.638824.605124.588424.5529
2026-11-04 · model year 0.843750—24.644524.623524.613224.591324.64124.607424.590724.5552
2026-11-10 · model year 0.859375—24.646624.625624.615324.593424.64324.609624.59324.5574
2026-11-16 · model year 0.875000—24.648524.627624.617324.595524.64524.611724.595124.5596
2026-11-22 · model year 0.890625—24.650424.629524.619324.597424.646924.613724.597124.5616
2026-11-27 · model year 0.906250—24.652124.631424.621124.599324.648624.615624.599124.5636
2026-12-03 · model year 0.921875—24.653724.633124.622924.601224.650324.617424.600924.5655
2026-12-09 · model year 0.937500—24.655324.634824.624624.602924.651924.619224.602824.5674
2026-12-14 · model year 0.953125—24.656824.636424.626324.604624.653524.620924.604524.5692
2026-12-20 · model year 0.968750—24.658324.63824.627924.606324.654924.622624.606224.5709
2026-12-26 · model year 0.984375—24.659724.639524.629424.607924.656424.624224.607924.5727
2027-01-01 · model year 1.000000—24.66124.640924.630924.609424.657724.625724.609524.5744
2027-01-06 · model year 1.015625—24.662324.642924.632424.611524.659124.628124.611124.5769
2027-01-12 · model year 1.031250—24.663624.644824.633824.613524.660424.630424.612724.5794
2027-01-18 · model year 1.046875—24.664924.646724.635224.615624.661724.632724.614224.5818
2027-01-23 · model year 1.062500—24.666124.648624.636624.617624.66324.63524.615824.5843
2027-01-29 · model year 1.078125—24.667424.650524.63824.619624.664224.637324.617324.5867
2027-02-04 · model year 1.093750—24.668624.652424.639424.621624.665524.639624.618824.5892
2027-02-09 · model year 1.109375—24.669824.654224.640724.623524.666724.641924.620424.5916
2027-02-15 · model year 1.125000—24.67124.656124.642124.625524.66824.644124.621924.5941
2027-02-21 · model year 1.140625—24.672224.65824.643524.627524.669324.646424.623424.5966
2027-02-27 · model year 1.156250—24.673524.659924.644924.629624.670624.648724.62524.599
2027-03-04 · model year 1.171875—24.674824.661824.646324.631624.671924.65124.626624.6015
2027-03-10 · model year 1.187500—24.676124.663724.647824.633624.673224.653424.628224.6041
2027-03-16 · model year 1.203125—24.677424.665724.649324.635724.674524.655724.629824.6066
2027-03-21 · model year 1.218750—24.678724.667724.650824.637824.675924.658124.631524.6092
2027-03-27 · model year 1.234375—24.680124.669724.652324.6424.677424.660624.633124.6118
2027-04-02 · model year 1.250000—24.681624.671824.653924.642124.678824.66324.634924.6144
2027-04-07 · model year 1.265625—24.683124.673924.655524.644424.680424.665524.636624.6171
2027-04-13 · model year 1.281250—24.684624.67624.657224.646624.681924.668124.638524.6198
2027-04-19 · model year 1.296875—24.686224.678224.658924.648924.683524.670624.640324.6226
2027-04-25 · model year 1.312500—24.687824.680524.660624.651324.685224.673324.642224.6254
2027-04-30 · model year 1.328125—24.689524.682824.662424.653724.686924.67624.644224.6282
2027-05-06 · model year 1.343750—24.691324.685124.664324.656124.688724.678724.646224.6311
2027-05-12 · model year 1.359375—24.693124.687624.666224.658624.690624.681524.648324.6341
2027-05-17 · model year 1.375000—24.69524.690124.668224.661224.692524.684424.650424.6371
2027-05-23 · model year 1.390625—24.696924.692624.670324.663824.694524.687324.652624.6401
2027-05-29 · model year 1.406250—24.69924.695224.672424.666524.696624.690324.654924.6433
2027-06-03 · model year 1.421875—24.701124.697924.674624.669324.698724.693424.657224.6465
2027-06-09 · model year 1.437500—24.703324.700724.676924.672124.700924.696524.659624.6497
2027-06-15 · model year 1.453125—24.705524.703524.679224.67524.703224.699724.662124.653
2027-06-21 · model year 1.468750—24.707924.706524.681724.67824.705624.70324.664624.6564
2027-06-26 · model year 1.484375—24.710324.709524.684224.68124.708124.706324.667324.6599
2027-07-02 · model year 1.500000—24.712824.712524.686724.684124.710624.709824.6724.6634
2027-07-08 · model year 1.515625—24.715424.715724.689424.687324.713224.713324.672724.667
2027-07-13 · model year 1.531250—24.718124.71924.692124.690624.71624.716924.675624.6707
2027-07-19 · model year 1.546875—24.720924.722324.694924.693924.718824.720524.678524.6744
2027-07-25 · model year 1.562500—24.723824.725724.697924.697424.721724.724324.681624.6783
2027-07-31 · model year 1.578125—24.726824.729224.700924.700924.724724.728124.684724.6822
2027-08-05 · model year 1.593750—24.729924.732824.703924.704524.727824.732124.687924.6861
2027-08-11 · model year 1.609375—24.73324.736524.707124.708224.73124.736124.691124.6902
2027-08-17 · model year 1.625000—24.736324.740324.710424.711924.734324.740224.694524.6943
2027-08-22 · model year 1.640625—24.739724.744224.713724.715824.737724.744424.69824.6986
2027-08-28 · model year 1.656250—24.743124.748224.717224.719824.741224.748724.701524.7029
2027-09-03 · model year 1.671875—24.746724.752224.720724.723824.744724.753124.705224.7073
2027-09-08 · model year 1.687500—24.750424.756424.724424.727924.748424.757624.708924.7118
2027-09-14 · model year 1.703125—24.754224.760724.728124.732124.752224.762124.712724.7163
2027-09-20 · model year 1.718750—24.75824.765124.73224.736524.756124.766824.716624.721
2027-09-26 · model year 1.734375—24.76224.769524.735924.740924.760124.771624.720624.7257
2027-10-01 · model year 1.750000—24.766124.774124.739924.745424.764324.776424.724724.7305
2027-10-07 · model year 1.765625—24.770324.778824.744124.7524.768524.781424.728924.7355
2027-10-13 · model year 1.781250—24.774624.783624.748324.754724.772824.786524.733224.7405
2027-10-18 · model year 1.796875—24.77924.788424.752624.759424.777224.791624.737624.7456
2027-10-24 · model year 1.812500—24.783624.793424.757124.764324.781824.796924.742124.7507
2027-10-30 · model year 1.828125—24.788224.798524.761624.769324.786424.802324.746724.756
2027-11-04 · model year 1.843750—24.79324.803724.766224.774424.791224.807724.751424.7614
2027-11-10 · model year 1.859375—24.797824.80924.77124.779624.796124.813324.756224.7668
2027-11-16 · model year 1.875000—24.802824.814424.775824.784824.80124.81924.761124.7724
2027-11-22 · model year 1.890625—24.807924.819924.780824.790224.806124.824724.766124.7781
2027-11-27 · model year 1.906250—24.813124.825524.785824.795724.811324.830624.771224.7838
2027-12-03 · model year 1.921875—24.818424.831324.79124.801324.816724.836624.776424.7896
2027-12-09 · model year 1.937500—24.823824.837124.796224.806924.822124.842724.781624.7956
2027-12-14 · model year 1.953125—24.829324.84324.801624.812724.827624.848924.78724.8016
2027-12-20 · model year 1.968750—24.834924.849124.807124.818624.833324.855224.792524.8077
2027-12-26 · model year 1.984375—24.840724.855224.812724.824624.83924.861624.798124.8139
2028-01-01 · model year 2.000000—24.846624.861524.818324.830624.844924.868124.803824.8202
2028-01-06 · model year 2.015625—24.852524.867924.824124.836824.850924.874724.809624.8266
2028-01-12 · model year 2.031250—24.858624.874424.8324.843124.85724.881424.815524.8331
2028-01-18 · model year 2.046875—24.864824.88124.83624.849524.863224.888224.821524.8397
2028-01-23 · model year 2.062500—24.871224.887724.842124.85624.869524.895124.827624.8464
2028-01-29 · model year 2.078125—24.877624.894524.848324.862524.87624.902224.833824.8532
2028-02-04 · model year 2.093750—24.884224.901424.854624.869224.882524.909324.840124.8601
2028-02-10 · model year 2.109375—24.890824.908424.861124.87624.889224.916524.846524.8671
2028-02-15 · model year 2.125000—24.897624.915624.867624.882924.89624.923924.853124.8741
2028-02-21 · model year 2.140625—24.904524.922824.874224.889924.902924.931324.859724.8813
2028-02-27 · model year 2.156250—24.911524.930224.88124.89724.909924.938924.866424.8886
2028-03-03 · model year 2.171875—24.918624.937624.887824.904224.91724.946624.873224.8959
2028-03-09 · model year 2.187500—24.925824.945224.894824.911524.924224.954324.880124.9034
2028-03-15 · model year 2.203125—24.933224.952924.901824.918924.931524.962224.887224.9109
2028-03-21 · model year 2.218750—24.940624.960724.90924.926424.93924.970224.894324.9186
2028-03-26 · model year 2.234375—24.948224.968624.916324.93424.946624.978324.901524.9263
2028-04-01 · model year 2.250000—24.955924.976624.923624.941724.954224.986524.908824.9342
2028-04-07 · model year 2.265625—24.963724.984724.931124.949524.96224.994824.916324.9421
2028-04-12 · model year 2.281250—24.971624.992924.938724.957424.969925.003224.923824.9502
2028-04-18 · model year 2.296875—24.979625.001324.946424.965424.97825.011724.931424.9583
2028-04-24 · model year 2.312500—24.987725.009724.954224.973524.986125.020324.939224.9665
2028-04-30 · model year 2.328125—24.99625.018224.962124.981724.994325.02924.94724.9748
2028-05-05 · model year 2.343750—25.004325.026924.970124.9925.002725.037924.954924.9832
2028-05-11 · model year 2.359375—25.012825.035724.978224.998425.011125.046824.96324.9918
2028-05-17 · model year 2.375000—25.021425.044524.986425.00725.019725.055824.971125.0004
2028-05-22 · model year 2.390625—25.030125.053524.994725.015625.028425.06524.979425.0091
2028-05-28 · model year 2.406250—25.038925.062625.003125.024325.037225.074224.987725.0178
2028-06-03 · model year 2.421875—25.047825.071825.011625.033125.046125.083624.996125.0267
2028-06-09 · model year 2.437500—25.056825.081125.020325.04225.055125.09325.004725.0357
2028-06-14 · model year 2.453125—25.065925.090525.02925.05125.064225.102625.013325.0448
2028-06-20 · model year 2.468750—25.075225.125.037825.060125.073425.112225.02225.054
2028-06-26 · model year 2.484375—25.084525.109625.046725.069325.082825.12225.030925.0632
2028-07-02 · model year 2.500000—25.09425.119425.055825.078625.092225.131825.039825.0726
2028-07-07 · model year 2.515625—25.103525.129225.064925.08825.101825.141825.048825.082
2028-07-13 · model year 2.531250—25.113225.139125.074125.097525.111425.151925.05825.0916
2028-07-19 · model year 2.546875—25.12325.149125.083525.107125.121225.16225.067225.1012
2028-07-24 · model year 2.562500—25.132925.159325.092925.116825.131125.172325.076525.1109
2028-07-30 · model year 2.578125—25.142925.169525.102525.126625.14125.182725.085925.1208
2028-08-05 · model year 2.593750—25.15325.179925.112125.136525.151125.193125.095425.1307
2028-08-11 · model year 2.609375—25.163225.190325.121825.146525.161325.203725.105125.1407
2028-08-16 · model year 2.625000—25.173525.200925.131725.156625.171625.214425.114825.1508
2028-08-22 · model year 2.640625—25.183925.211525.141625.166725.18225.225225.124625.1609
2028-08-28 · model year 2.656250—25.194525.222325.151625.17725.192525.23625.134525.1712
2028-09-02 · model year 2.671875—25.205125.233125.161825.187425.203125.24725.144525.1816
2028-09-08 · model year 2.687500—25.215825.244125.17225.197825.213825.258125.154525.192
2028-09-14 · model year 2.703125—25.226725.255225.182325.208425.224725.269225.164725.2026
2028-09-20 · model year 2.718750—25.237625.266325.192825.219125.235625.280525.17525.2132
2028-09-25 · model year 2.734375—25.248625.277625.203325.229825.246625.291925.185425.224
2028-10-01 · model year 2.750000—25.259825.288925.213925.240625.257725.303325.195825.2348
2028-10-07 · model year 2.765625—25.271125.300425.224625.251625.26925.314925.206425.2457
2028-10-12 · model year 2.781250—25.282425.31225.235425.262625.280325.326525.217125.2567
2028-10-18 · model year 2.796875—25.293925.323625.246325.273725.291725.338325.227825.2677
2028-10-24 · model year 2.812500—25.305425.335425.257325.284925.303325.350125.238625.2789
2028-10-30 · model year 2.828125—25.317125.347225.268425.296225.314925.362125.249625.2902
2028-11-04 · model year 2.843750—25.328825.359225.279625.307625.326625.374125.260625.3015
2028-11-10 · model year 2.859375—25.340725.371225.290925.319125.338525.386225.271725.3129
2028-11-16 · model year 2.875000—25.352725.383425.302325.330725.350425.398525.282925.3244
2028-11-21 · model year 2.890625—25.364725.395625.313725.342425.362425.410825.294225.336
2028-11-27 · model year 2.906250—25.376925.40825.325325.354125.374625.423225.305625.3477
2028-12-03 · model year 2.921875—25.389125.420425.33725.36625.386825.435725.31725.3595
2028-12-09 · model year 2.937500—25.401525.432925.348725.377925.399125.448325.328625.3714
2028-12-14 · model year 2.953125—25.413925.445525.360625.389925.411525.46125.340325.3833
2028-12-20 · model year 2.968750—25.426525.458325.372525.402125.424125.473825.35225.3953
2028-12-26 · model year 2.984375—25.439125.471125.384525.414325.436725.486725.363825.4074
2029-01-01 · model year 3.000000—25.451925.48425.396625.426525.449425.499625.375725.4196

See the differences in output, employment and debt

The GDP-level paths nearly overlap because this rate pulse has a small incremental effect in this particular model. Use the percentage view below to inspect that effect without changing the scenario. State-level views also show what happens in the no-shock baseline.

Uses the shock, horizon and starting-state controls above. This close-up shows the experiment period only. Each metric keeps its own labeled axis; percentage points and percent changes have different meanings.

Assumed +2 percentage-point real borrowing-rate pulse for one year. Across 4 selected assumed states, the modeled range over 3 years is -0.1445 to +0.1974 % of the paired no-shock output. At 2029-01-01: +0.1178 to +0.1974. Negative means output is below its own no-shock path; positive means above. This is the difference at each date, not accumulated lost GDP. The range compares assumptions; it is not a confidence interval.

Modeled output difference from the paired baseline

% of the paired no-shock output — CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE - retained 2025Q4 inputs; not a current measurement or forecast, and no probability attaches.

Y axis: Output difference from paired baseline (%) - negative means lower output

Modeled output difference from the paired baselineOutput difference from paired baseline (%) - negative means lower output. Calendar time on the horizontal axis. Observations and scenarios retain their own dates and frequency. Exact recorded values appear in the table; a dash means no value exists on that date.Assumed +2 percentage-point borrowing-rate pulse: 2026-01-01 to 2027-01-01-0.21-0.1100.110.212026202720282029No-shock difference = 0D_A/R_LOW - shock effectD_A/R_HIGH - shock effectD_B/R_LOW - shock effectD_B/R_HIGH - shock effectAssumed rate pulse begins; illustrative calendar placementAssumed rate pulse begins; illustrative calendar placementAssumed rate pulse begins; illustrative calendar placement

X axis: calendar dates; each series retains its own observation or simulation cadence.

Assumed rate pulse begins; illustrative calendar placement

Shading marks the imposed one-year model rate pulse. These are assumed scenario dates, not a historical crisis period.

  • Assumed +2 percentage-point borrowing-rate pulse: 2026-01-01 to 2027-01-01
No-shock difference = 0D_A/R_LOW - shock effectD_A/R_HIGH - shock effectD_B/R_LOW - shock effectD_B/R_HIGH - shock effect
Read values as a table
Exact paired native solver nodes; no fabricated historical observations. Negative means output is below its own no-shock path; positive means above. This is the difference at each date, not accumulated lost GDP. Units: % of the paired no-shock output.
Date / observation periodNo-shock difference = 0D_A/R_LOW - shock effectD_A/R_HIGH - shock effectD_B/R_LOW - shock effectD_B/R_HIGH - shock effect
2026-01-01 - model year 0.00000000000
2026-01-06 - model year 0.0156250-0.0038-0.0037-0.006-0.0057
2026-01-12 - model year 0.0312500-0.0075-0.0073-0.0119-0.0114
2026-01-18 - model year 0.0468750-0.0111-0.0108-0.0177-0.017
2026-01-23 - model year 0.0625000-0.0147-0.0144-0.0234-0.0225
2026-01-29 - model year 0.0781250-0.0183-0.0178-0.0291-0.0279
2026-02-04 - model year 0.0937500-0.0218-0.0212-0.0346-0.0332
2026-02-09 - model year 0.1093750-0.0252-0.0246-0.04-0.0384
2026-02-15 - model year 0.1250000-0.0285-0.0278-0.0454-0.0436
2026-02-21 - model year 0.1406250-0.0318-0.031-0.0505-0.0486
2026-02-27 - model year 0.1562500-0.035-0.0341-0.0556-0.0535
2026-03-04 - model year 0.1718750-0.038-0.0372-0.0605-0.0582
2026-03-10 - model year 0.1875000-0.0411-0.0401-0.0653-0.0629
2026-03-16 - model year 0.2031250-0.044-0.043-0.0699-0.0674
2026-03-21 - model year 0.2187500-0.0468-0.0458-0.0744-0.0718
2026-03-27 - model year 0.2343750-0.0495-0.0485-0.0788-0.0761
2026-04-02 - model year 0.2500000-0.0521-0.0511-0.0829-0.0802
2026-04-07 - model year 0.2656250-0.0547-0.0536-0.087-0.0842
2026-04-13 - model year 0.2812500-0.0571-0.056-0.0908-0.088
2026-04-19 - model year 0.2968750-0.0594-0.0583-0.0945-0.0917
2026-04-25 - model year 0.3125000-0.0616-0.0606-0.098-0.0953
2026-04-30 - model year 0.3281250-0.0637-0.0627-0.1014-0.0987
2026-05-06 - model year 0.3437500-0.0657-0.0647-0.1046-0.1019
2026-05-12 - model year 0.3593750-0.0676-0.0667-0.1077-0.1051
2026-05-17 - model year 0.3750000-0.0694-0.0685-0.1105-0.1081
2026-05-23 - model year 0.3906250-0.0711-0.0703-0.1133-0.1109
2026-05-29 - model year 0.4062500-0.0727-0.072-0.1158-0.1136
2026-06-03 - model year 0.4218750-0.0742-0.0735-0.1182-0.1162
2026-06-09 - model year 0.4375000-0.0756-0.075-0.1204-0.1186
2026-06-15 - model year 0.4531250-0.0769-0.0764-0.1225-0.1209
2026-06-21 - model year 0.4687500-0.0781-0.0777-0.1245-0.1231
2026-06-26 - model year 0.4843750-0.0792-0.0789-0.1263-0.1251
2026-07-02 - model year 0.5000000-0.0802-0.0801-0.1279-0.127
2026-07-08 - model year 0.5156250-0.0812-0.0811-0.1294-0.1288
2026-07-13 - model year 0.5312500-0.082-0.0821-0.1308-0.1305
2026-07-19 - model year 0.5468750-0.0828-0.083-0.132-0.1321
2026-07-25 - model year 0.5625000-0.0835-0.0838-0.1331-0.1335
2026-07-31 - model year 0.5781250-0.0841-0.0846-0.1341-0.1348
2026-08-05 - model year 0.5937500-0.0846-0.0853-0.1349-0.1361
2026-08-11 - model year 0.6093750-0.085-0.0859-0.1357-0.1372
2026-08-17 - model year 0.6250000-0.0854-0.0865-0.1363-0.1382
2026-08-22 - model year 0.6406250-0.0858-0.087-0.1369-0.1392
2026-08-28 - model year 0.6562500-0.086-0.0874-0.1373-0.14
2026-09-03 - model year 0.6718750-0.0862-0.0878-0.1376-0.1408
2026-09-08 - model year 0.6875000-0.0864-0.0881-0.1379-0.1414
2026-09-14 - model year 0.7031250-0.0865-0.0884-0.138-0.142
2026-09-20 - model year 0.7187500-0.0865-0.0886-0.1381-0.1426
2026-09-26 - model year 0.7343750-0.0865-0.0888-0.1381-0.143
2026-10-01 - model year 0.7500000-0.0865-0.0889-0.138-0.1434
2026-10-07 - model year 0.7656250-0.0864-0.089-0.1379-0.1437
2026-10-13 - model year 0.7812500-0.0862-0.0891-0.1377-0.144
2026-10-18 - model year 0.7968750-0.0861-0.0891-0.1374-0.1442
2026-10-24 - model year 0.8125000-0.0859-0.0891-0.137-0.1443
2026-10-30 - model year 0.8281250-0.0856-0.0891-0.1367-0.1444
2026-11-04 - model year 0.8437500-0.0854-0.089-0.1362-0.1445
2026-11-10 - model year 0.8593750-0.0851-0.0889-0.1357-0.1445
2026-11-16 - model year 0.8750000-0.0847-0.0888-0.1352-0.1444
2026-11-22 - model year 0.8906250-0.0844-0.0887-0.1346-0.1443
2026-11-27 - model year 0.9062500-0.084-0.0885-0.134-0.1442
2026-12-03 - model year 0.9218750-0.0837-0.0883-0.1334-0.1441
2026-12-09 - model year 0.9375000-0.0833-0.0881-0.1327-0.1439
2026-12-14 - model year 0.9531250-0.0829-0.0879-0.1321-0.1437
2026-12-20 - model year 0.9687500-0.0824-0.0877-0.1313-0.1435
2026-12-26 - model year 0.9843750-0.082-0.0875-0.1306-0.1432
2027-01-01 - model year 1.0000000-0.0816-0.0872-0.1298-0.1429
2027-01-06 - model year 1.0156250-0.0789-0.0847-0.1257-0.1392
2027-01-12 - model year 1.0312500-0.0763-0.0823-0.1216-0.1355
2027-01-18 - model year 1.0468750-0.0737-0.0798-0.1174-0.1317
2027-01-23 - model year 1.0625000-0.071-0.0773-0.1133-0.128
2027-01-29 - model year 1.0781250-0.0684-0.0748-0.1091-0.1242
2027-02-04 - model year 1.0937500-0.0657-0.0723-0.105-0.1205
2027-02-09 - model year 1.1093750-0.0631-0.0698-0.1009-0.1167
2027-02-15 - model year 1.1250000-0.0605-0.0673-0.0967-0.1129
2027-02-21 - model year 1.1406250-0.0579-0.0649-0.0926-0.1092
2027-02-27 - model year 1.1562500-0.0552-0.0624-0.0885-0.1054
2027-03-04 - model year 1.1718750-0.0526-0.0599-0.0844-0.1017
2027-03-10 - model year 1.1875000-0.05-0.0574-0.0803-0.0979
2027-03-16 - model year 1.2031250-0.0474-0.055-0.0762-0.0942
2027-03-21 - model year 1.2187500-0.0449-0.0525-0.0722-0.0905
2027-03-27 - model year 1.2343750-0.0423-0.0501-0.0681-0.0868
2027-04-02 - model year 1.2500000-0.0397-0.0476-0.0641-0.0831
2027-04-07 - model year 1.2656250-0.0372-0.0452-0.0601-0.0794
2027-04-13 - model year 1.2812500-0.0347-0.0428-0.0562-0.0757
2027-04-19 - model year 1.2968750-0.0322-0.0404-0.0522-0.0721
2027-04-25 - model year 1.3125000-0.0297-0.038-0.0483-0.0684
2027-04-30 - model year 1.3281250-0.0272-0.0356-0.0444-0.0648
2027-05-06 - model year 1.3437500-0.0247-0.0333-0.0405-0.0612
2027-05-12 - model year 1.3593750-0.0223-0.0309-0.0367-0.0577
2027-05-17 - model year 1.3750000-0.0199-0.0286-0.0329-0.0541
2027-05-23 - model year 1.3906250-0.0175-0.0263-0.0291-0.0506
2027-05-29 - model year 1.4062500-0.0151-0.024-0.0253-0.0471
2027-06-03 - model year 1.4218750-0.0127-0.0217-0.0216-0.0436
2027-06-09 - model year 1.4375000-0.0103-0.0194-0.0179-0.0401
2027-06-15 - model year 1.4531250-0.008-0.0172-0.0142-0.0367
2027-06-21 - model year 1.4687500-0.0057-0.015-0.0106-0.0333
2027-06-26 - model year 1.4843750-0.0034-0.0128-0.007-0.0299
2027-07-02 - model year 1.5000000-0.0011-0.0106-0.0034-0.0265
2027-07-08 - model year 1.51562500.0011-0.00840.0001-0.0232
2027-07-13 - model year 1.53125000.0033-0.00620.0036-0.0199
2027-07-19 - model year 1.54687500.0055-0.00410.0071-0.0166
2027-07-25 - model year 1.56250000.0077-0.0020.0106-0.0134
2027-07-31 - model year 1.57812500.00990.00010.014-0.0102
2027-08-05 - model year 1.59375000.0120.00220.0173-0.007
2027-08-11 - model year 1.60937500.01410.00430.0207-0.0038
2027-08-17 - model year 1.62500000.01620.00630.024-0.0006
2027-08-22 - model year 1.64062500.01830.00830.02730.0025
2027-08-28 - model year 1.65625000.02040.01030.03050.0055
2027-09-03 - model year 1.67187500.02240.01230.03370.0086
2027-09-08 - model year 1.68750000.02440.01430.03690.0116
2027-09-14 - model year 1.70312500.02640.01620.040.0146
2027-09-20 - model year 1.71875000.02840.01820.04310.0176
2027-09-26 - model year 1.73437500.03030.02010.04620.0205
2027-10-01 - model year 1.75000000.03220.0220.04920.0234
2027-10-07 - model year 1.76562500.03410.02380.05220.0263
2027-10-13 - model year 1.78125000.0360.02570.05520.0292
2027-10-18 - model year 1.79687500.03790.02750.05810.032
2027-10-24 - model year 1.81250000.03970.02930.0610.0348
2027-10-30 - model year 1.82812500.04150.03110.06390.0376
2027-11-04 - model year 1.84375000.04330.03290.06670.0403
2027-11-10 - model year 1.85937500.04510.03460.06950.043
2027-11-16 - model year 1.87500000.04690.03640.07230.0457
2027-11-22 - model year 1.89062500.04860.03810.0750.0483
2027-11-27 - model year 1.90625000.05030.03980.07770.051
2027-12-03 - model year 1.92187500.0520.04150.08040.0536
2027-12-09 - model year 1.93750000.05370.04310.0830.0561
2027-12-14 - model year 1.95312500.05530.04480.08560.0587
2027-12-20 - model year 1.96875000.05690.04640.08820.0612
2027-12-26 - model year 1.98437500.05860.0480.09070.0637
2028-01-01 - model year 2.00000000.06010.04960.09320.0661
2028-01-06 - model year 2.01562500.06170.05110.09570.0685
2028-01-12 - model year 2.03125000.06330.05270.09810.0709
2028-01-18 - model year 2.04687500.06480.05420.10060.0733
2028-01-23 - model year 2.06250000.06630.05570.10290.0757
2028-01-29 - model year 2.07812500.06780.05720.10530.078
2028-02-04 - model year 2.09375000.06930.05870.10760.0803
2028-02-10 - model year 2.10937500.07070.06010.10990.0825
2028-02-15 - model year 2.12500000.07210.06160.11220.0848
2028-02-21 - model year 2.14062500.07360.0630.11440.087
2028-02-27 - model year 2.15625000.07490.06440.11660.0892
2028-03-03 - model year 2.17187500.07630.06580.11880.0913
2028-03-09 - model year 2.18750000.07770.06720.12090.0935
2028-03-15 - model year 2.20312500.0790.06850.1230.0956
2028-03-21 - model year 2.21875000.08030.06980.12510.0977
2028-03-26 - model year 2.23437500.08160.07120.12720.0997
2028-04-01 - model year 2.25000000.08290.07250.12920.1017
2028-04-07 - model year 2.26562500.08420.07380.13120.1037
2028-04-12 - model year 2.28125000.08540.0750.13320.1057
2028-04-18 - model year 2.29687500.08670.07630.13510.1077
2028-04-24 - model year 2.31250000.08790.07750.1370.1096
2028-04-30 - model year 2.32812500.08910.07870.13890.1115
2028-05-05 - model year 2.34375000.09030.07990.14080.1134
2028-05-11 - model year 2.35937500.09140.08110.14260.1153
2028-05-17 - model year 2.37500000.09260.08230.14440.1171
2028-05-22 - model year 2.39062500.09370.08350.14620.1189
2028-05-28 - model year 2.40625000.09480.08460.14790.1207
2028-06-03 - model year 2.42187500.09590.08570.14970.1225
2028-06-09 - model year 2.43750000.0970.08680.15140.1242
2028-06-14 - model year 2.45312500.09810.08790.15310.1259
2028-06-20 - model year 2.46875000.09910.0890.15470.1276
2028-06-26 - model year 2.48437500.10010.09010.15630.1293
2028-07-02 - model year 2.50000000.10110.09110.15790.1309
2028-07-07 - model year 2.51562500.10210.09220.15950.1326
2028-07-13 - model year 2.53125000.10310.09320.16110.1342
2028-07-19 - model year 2.54687500.10410.09420.16260.1358
2028-07-24 - model year 2.56250000.10510.09520.16410.1373
2028-07-30 - model year 2.57812500.1060.09620.16560.1389
2028-08-05 - model year 2.59375000.10690.09720.16710.1404
2028-08-11 - model year 2.60937500.10780.09810.16850.1419
2028-08-16 - model year 2.62500000.10870.0990.16990.1434
2028-08-22 - model year 2.64062500.10960.10.17130.1448
2028-08-28 - model year 2.65625000.11050.10090.17270.1463
2028-09-02 - model year 2.67187500.11130.10180.1740.1477
2028-09-08 - model year 2.68750000.11220.10270.17530.1491
2028-09-14 - model year 2.70312500.1130.10360.17660.1505
2028-09-20 - model year 2.71875000.11380.10440.17790.1518
2028-09-25 - model year 2.73437500.11460.10530.17920.1531
2028-10-01 - model year 2.75000000.11540.10610.18040.1545
2028-10-07 - model year 2.76562500.11620.10690.18160.1558
2028-10-12 - model year 2.78125000.11690.10770.18280.157
2028-10-18 - model year 2.79687500.11770.10850.1840.1583
2028-10-24 - model year 2.81250000.11840.10930.18520.1595
2028-10-30 - model year 2.82812500.11910.11010.18630.1608
2028-11-04 - model year 2.84375000.11980.11080.18740.162
2028-11-10 - model year 2.85937500.12050.11160.18850.1632
2028-11-16 - model year 2.87500000.12120.11230.18960.1643
2028-11-21 - model year 2.89062500.12190.11310.19060.1655
2028-11-27 - model year 2.90625000.12250.11380.19160.1666
2028-12-03 - model year 2.92187500.12320.11450.19270.1677
2028-12-09 - model year 2.93750000.12380.11520.19370.1688
2028-12-14 - model year 2.95312500.12440.11580.19460.1699
2028-12-20 - model year 2.96875000.1250.11650.19560.171
2028-12-26 - model year 2.98437500.12560.11720.19650.172
2029-01-01 - model year 3.00000000.12620.11780.19740.173

Baseline matters: with these authored assumptions, even the no-shock employment paths fall from 95.55% to about 89.4–89.7% over three years. A small extra shock effect does not mean the modeled baseline is stable or an accurate US forecast. Historical recession shading belongs to the observed GDP record; shading here marks only the assumed one-year rate pulse.

Why does the model start from 2025Q4 when observed GDP reaches 2026Q2?

The experiment fixes its debt and employment assumptions at 2025Q4. Newer real GDP is available, but its other inputs have not been refreshed as one consistent state: the retained BIS debt series ends in 2025Q4, the older nominal-GDP pack ends in 2026Q1, and wage share uses a 2023 mapping. Relabeling this path as a 2026Q2 forecast would change the claim without updating the experiment.

A new 2026Q2 experiment needs an updated nominal-output denominator, a declared debt perimeter, employment and borrowing-rate mappings, and a new baseline/shock run. Fed-based debt totals offer a possible route, with their own coverage limits. The current chart keeps actual 2026 GDP visible and labels the older assumed model start.

How the levels are connected: each model path starts at the 2025Q4 observed annualized GDP level ($24.056 trillion), then follows its native real-output growth. This is an illustrative scale mapping, not a fit to subsequent US GDP. Solid dots show quarterly observations; dashed paths are scenarios. Quarterly GDP is an annualized flow, not a stock of wealth. Model nodes are output rates, not independently estimated official quarterly GDP.

Assumed states, not confidence bounds: D_A / D_B use different debt constructions; R_LOW / R_HIGH use alternative borrowing-rate mappings. All four have equal status. The model also uses a 2023 wage-share mapping and partial November–December 2025 employment (October is missing). The assumed rate pulse begins 1 January 2026 for one year; assigning these dates does not mean that it actually happened. Observed 2026 quarters remain visible. The full record is the retained 2000–2026 GDP series, not the entire official history.

BEA real GDP via FRED · retained vintage 5 August 2026 · Historical values, units and source hashes (JSON). The later source vintage was not available at the assumed start. Connected quarterly dots do not create daily GDP observations.

Inspect output shortfalls, employment effects and earlier context

How does the modeled economy respond after borrowing rates rise? Each line compares one assumed starting state with its own no-shock baseline. Higher positive shortfall means more damage; a negative value means activity has moved above that baseline.

Choose a response and an exact precomputed shock

Peak modeled shortfall: 0.087–0.144 % output, across four assumed states. Each is compared with its own no-shock baseline.

Conditional on assumed states: retained 2025Q4 debt constructions and a 2023 wage-share mapping. This figure is a dated experiment, not a current US measurement or recession probability. The four lines are separate assumptions, not confidence-band edges. Starting employment uses November–December 2025 only because October is missing; it is not a complete-quarter observation.

0.1 means output is 0.1% below the same model’s no-shock output at that date. For example, baseline output of 100 and shocked output of 99.9 give 0.1%. Formula: 100 × (baseline − shocked output) / baseline. It is neither a 10% loss nor a recession probability. Zero = no difference; positive = below baseline; negative = above baseline. This shows the difference at each time, not accumulated loss.

Output shortfall versus the paired baseline

%; positive = below baseline — CONDITIONAL ON AN ASSUMED STATE — not a measurement, not a forecast, and no probability attaches

Y axis: Output below no-shock baseline (%)

Assumed shock starts-0.232-0.12900.0760.1790.001.002.003.00

X axis: Years since the assumed shock

Shaded: Assumed rate increase during model years 0–1..

No-shock difference = 0D_A/R_LOW shock effectD_A/R_HIGH shock effectD_B/R_LOW shock effectD_B/R_HIGH shock effect
Read values as a table
Elapsed model yearsNo-shock difference = 0 (%; positive = below baseline)D_A/R_LOW shock effect (%; positive = below baseline)D_A/R_HIGH shock effect (%; positive = below baseline)D_B/R_LOW shock effect (%; positive = below baseline)D_B/R_HIGH shock effect (%; positive = below baseline)
0.0000000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
0.0156250.0000.0040.0040.0060.006
0.0312500.0000.0070.0070.0120.011
0.0468750.0000.0110.0110.0180.017
0.0625000.0000.0150.0140.0230.022
0.0781250.0000.0180.0180.0290.028
0.0937500.0000.0220.0210.0350.033
0.1093750.0000.0250.0250.0400.038
0.1250000.0000.0290.0280.0450.044
0.1406250.0000.0320.0310.0510.049
0.1562500.0000.0350.0340.0560.053
0.1718750.0000.0380.0370.0610.058
0.1875000.0000.0410.0400.0650.063
0.2031250.0000.0440.0430.0700.067
0.2187500.0000.0470.0460.0740.072
0.2343750.0000.0500.0480.0790.076
0.2500000.0000.0520.0510.0830.080
0.2656250.0000.0550.0540.0870.084
0.2812500.0000.0570.0560.0910.088
0.2968750.0000.0590.0580.0950.092
0.3125000.0000.0620.0610.0980.095
0.3281250.0000.0640.0630.1010.099
0.3437500.0000.0660.0650.1050.102
0.3593750.0000.0680.0670.1080.105
0.3750000.0000.0690.0690.1110.108
0.3906250.0000.0710.0700.1130.111
0.4062500.0000.0730.0720.1160.114
0.4218750.0000.0740.0740.1180.116
0.4375000.0000.0760.0750.1200.119
0.4531250.0000.0770.0760.1230.121
0.4687500.0000.0780.0780.1240.123
0.4843750.0000.0790.0790.1260.125
0.5000000.0000.0800.0800.1280.127
0.5156250.0000.0810.0810.1290.129
0.5312500.0000.0820.0820.1310.131
0.5468750.0000.0830.0830.1320.132
0.5625000.0000.0830.0840.1330.134
0.5781250.0000.0840.0850.1340.135
0.5937500.0000.0850.0850.1350.136
0.6093750.0000.0850.0860.1360.137
0.6250000.0000.0850.0860.1360.138
0.6406250.0000.0860.0870.1370.139
0.6562500.0000.0860.0870.1370.140
0.6718750.0000.0860.0880.1380.141
0.6875000.0000.0860.0880.1380.141
0.7031250.0000.0860.0880.1380.142
0.7187500.0000.0870.0890.1380.143
0.7343750.0000.0870.0890.1380.143
0.7500000.0000.0860.0890.1380.143
0.7656250.0000.0860.0890.1380.144
0.7812500.0000.0860.0890.1380.144
0.7968750.0000.0860.0890.1370.144
0.8125000.0000.0860.0890.1370.144
0.8281250.0000.0860.0890.1370.144
0.8437500.0000.0850.0890.1360.144
0.8593750.0000.0850.0890.1360.144
0.8750000.0000.0850.0890.1350.144
0.8906250.0000.0840.0890.1350.144
0.9062500.0000.0840.0890.1340.144
0.9218750.0000.0840.0880.1330.144
0.9375000.0000.0830.0880.1330.144
0.9531250.0000.0830.0880.1320.144
0.9687500.0000.0820.0880.1310.143
0.9843750.0000.0820.0870.1310.143
1.0000000.0000.0820.0870.1300.143
1.0156250.0000.0790.0850.1260.139
1.0312500.0000.0760.0820.1220.135
1.0468750.0000.0740.0800.1170.132
1.0625000.0000.0710.0770.1130.128
1.0781250.0000.0680.0750.1090.124
1.0937500.0000.0660.0720.1050.120
1.1093750.0000.0630.0700.1010.117
1.1250000.0000.0600.0670.0970.113
1.1406250.0000.0580.0650.0930.109
1.1562500.0000.0550.0620.0880.105
1.1718750.0000.0530.0600.0840.102
1.1875000.0000.0500.0570.0800.098
1.2031250.0000.0470.0550.0760.094
1.2187500.0000.0450.0530.0720.090
1.2343750.0000.0420.0500.0680.087
1.2500000.0000.0400.0480.0640.083
1.2656250.0000.0370.0450.0600.079
1.2812500.0000.0350.0430.0560.076
1.2968750.0000.0320.0400.0520.072
1.3125000.0000.0300.0380.0480.068
1.3281250.0000.0270.0360.0440.065
1.3437500.0000.0250.0330.0410.061
1.3593750.0000.0220.0310.0370.058
1.3750000.0000.0200.0290.0330.054
1.3906250.0000.0170.0260.0290.051
1.4062500.0000.0150.0240.0250.047
1.4218750.0000.0130.0220.0220.044
1.4375000.0000.0100.0190.0180.040
1.4531250.0000.0080.0170.0140.037
1.4687500.0000.0060.0150.0110.033
1.4843750.0000.0030.0130.0070.030
1.5000000.0000.0010.0110.0030.027
1.5156250.000-0.0010.008-0.0000.023
1.5312500.000-0.0030.006-0.0040.020
1.5468750.000-0.0060.004-0.0070.017
1.5625000.000-0.0080.002-0.0110.013
1.5781250.000-0.010-0.000-0.0140.010
1.5937500.000-0.012-0.002-0.0170.007
1.6093750.000-0.014-0.004-0.0210.004
1.6250000.000-0.016-0.006-0.0240.001
1.6406250.000-0.018-0.008-0.027-0.002
1.6562500.000-0.020-0.010-0.030-0.006
1.6718750.000-0.022-0.012-0.034-0.009
1.6875000.000-0.024-0.014-0.037-0.012
1.7031250.000-0.026-0.016-0.040-0.015
1.7187500.000-0.028-0.018-0.043-0.018
1.7343750.000-0.030-0.020-0.046-0.021
1.7500000.000-0.032-0.022-0.049-0.023
1.7656250.000-0.034-0.024-0.052-0.026
1.7812500.000-0.036-0.026-0.055-0.029
1.7968750.000-0.038-0.028-0.058-0.032
1.8125000.000-0.040-0.029-0.061-0.035
1.8281250.000-0.042-0.031-0.064-0.038
1.8437500.000-0.043-0.033-0.067-0.040
1.8593750.000-0.045-0.035-0.070-0.043
1.8750000.000-0.047-0.036-0.072-0.046
1.8906250.000-0.049-0.038-0.075-0.048
1.9062500.000-0.050-0.040-0.078-0.051
1.9218750.000-0.052-0.041-0.080-0.054
1.9375000.000-0.054-0.043-0.083-0.056
1.9531250.000-0.055-0.045-0.086-0.059
1.9687500.000-0.057-0.046-0.088-0.061
1.9843750.000-0.059-0.048-0.091-0.064
2.0000000.000-0.060-0.050-0.093-0.066
2.0156250.000-0.062-0.051-0.096-0.069
2.0312500.000-0.063-0.053-0.098-0.071
2.0468750.000-0.065-0.054-0.101-0.073
2.0625000.000-0.066-0.056-0.103-0.076
2.0781250.000-0.068-0.057-0.105-0.078
2.0937500.000-0.069-0.059-0.108-0.080
2.1093750.000-0.071-0.060-0.110-0.083
2.1250000.000-0.072-0.062-0.112-0.085
2.1406250.000-0.074-0.063-0.114-0.087
2.1562500.000-0.075-0.064-0.117-0.089
2.1718750.000-0.076-0.066-0.119-0.091
2.1875000.000-0.078-0.067-0.121-0.093
2.2031250.000-0.079-0.069-0.123-0.096
2.2187500.000-0.080-0.070-0.125-0.098
2.2343750.000-0.082-0.071-0.127-0.100
2.2500000.000-0.083-0.072-0.129-0.102
2.2656250.000-0.084-0.074-0.131-0.104
2.2812500.000-0.085-0.075-0.133-0.106
2.2968750.000-0.087-0.076-0.135-0.108
2.3125000.000-0.088-0.078-0.137-0.110
2.3281250.000-0.089-0.079-0.139-0.112
2.3437500.000-0.090-0.080-0.141-0.113
2.3593750.000-0.091-0.081-0.143-0.115
2.3750000.000-0.093-0.082-0.144-0.117
2.3906250.000-0.094-0.083-0.146-0.119
2.4062500.000-0.095-0.085-0.148-0.121
2.4218750.000-0.096-0.086-0.150-0.122
2.4375000.000-0.097-0.087-0.151-0.124
2.4531250.000-0.098-0.088-0.153-0.126
2.4687500.000-0.099-0.089-0.155-0.128
2.4843750.000-0.100-0.090-0.156-0.129
2.5000000.000-0.101-0.091-0.158-0.131
2.5156250.000-0.102-0.092-0.160-0.133
2.5312500.000-0.103-0.093-0.161-0.134
2.5468750.000-0.104-0.094-0.163-0.136
2.5625000.000-0.105-0.095-0.164-0.137
2.5781250.000-0.106-0.096-0.166-0.139
2.5937500.000-0.107-0.097-0.167-0.140
2.6093750.000-0.108-0.098-0.169-0.142
2.6250000.000-0.109-0.099-0.170-0.143
2.6406250.000-0.110-0.100-0.171-0.145
2.6562500.000-0.110-0.101-0.173-0.146
2.6718750.000-0.111-0.102-0.174-0.148
2.6875000.000-0.112-0.103-0.175-0.149
2.7031250.000-0.113-0.104-0.177-0.150
2.7187500.000-0.114-0.104-0.178-0.152
2.7343750.000-0.115-0.105-0.179-0.153
2.7500000.000-0.115-0.106-0.180-0.154
2.7656250.000-0.116-0.107-0.182-0.156
2.7812500.000-0.117-0.108-0.183-0.157
2.7968750.000-0.118-0.109-0.184-0.158
2.8125000.000-0.118-0.109-0.185-0.160
2.8281250.000-0.119-0.110-0.186-0.161
2.8437500.000-0.120-0.111-0.187-0.162
2.8593750.000-0.121-0.112-0.188-0.163
2.8750000.000-0.121-0.112-0.190-0.164
2.8906250.000-0.122-0.113-0.191-0.165
2.9062500.000-0.123-0.114-0.192-0.167
2.9218750.000-0.123-0.114-0.193-0.168
2.9375000.000-0.124-0.115-0.194-0.169
2.9531250.000-0.124-0.116-0.195-0.170
2.9687500.000-0.125-0.117-0.196-0.171
2.9843750.000-0.126-0.117-0.197-0.172
3.0000000.000-0.126-0.118-0.197-0.173

Calendar placement: the assumed shock starts 1 January 2026, immediately after the 2025Q4 reference quarter, and the experiment ends 1 January 2029. These are illustrative dates assigned to the unchanged model path, not a forecast issued in 2025 or a claim that a shock happened in 2026. Within each model year, dates are interpolated between calendar anniversaries; the exact elapsed time is retained in the table. For nonzero shock choices, the shaded first year represents the chosen rate increase. The vertical scale is fixed across shock choices within each response.

Reading the four lines: D_A and D_B are different debt constructions; R_LOW and R_HIGH are lower and higher assumed borrowing-rate mappings. They have equal status, not statistical weights.

What happened before the assumed shock?

The observed history below changes with your response selection. It shows actual output or employment levels, with its own units. It is separate from the simulated difference above; a historical no-shock alternative cannot be observed.

Observed US real output before the assumed shock

Real GDP index; 2025Q4 = 100 — Observed context from retained source vintages; separate from the conditional model experiment

Y axis: Observed real GDP (2025Q4 = 100)

Dot-com / 2001 downturn · Mar–Nov 2001Global financial crisis · Dec 2007–Jun 2009COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 202053.46166.15378.84691.538104.2312000Q12005Q12010Q12015Q12020Q12025Q4

X axis: Observation quarters · retained source vintages, not real-time forecast records

Shaded historical context; these dates do not attribute the movement of this series to a single cause.

BEA real GDP, rebased
Read values as a table
Observation quarterBEA real GDP, rebased (Real GDP index; 2025Q4 = 100)
2000Q157.692
2000Q258.742
2000Q358.802
2000Q459.153
2001Q158.959
2001Q259.328
2001Q359.090
2001Q459.252
2002Q159.748
2002Q260.114
2002Q360.358
2002Q460.433
2003Q160.751
2003Q261.289
2003Q362.309
2003Q463.032
2004Q163.389
2004Q263.880
2004Q364.486
2004Q465.144
2005Q165.867
2005Q266.191
2005Q366.710
2005Q467.081
2006Q167.983
2006Q268.159
2006Q368.261
2006Q468.848
2007Q169.055
2007Q269.477
2007Q369.878
2007Q470.317
2008Q170.017
2008Q270.433
2008Q370.063
2008Q468.530
2009Q167.752
2009Q267.631
2009Q367.869
2009Q468.602
2010Q168.934
2010Q269.601
2010Q370.138
2010Q470.506
2011Q170.339
2011Q270.815
2011Q370.799
2011Q471.594
2012Q172.195
2012Q272.517
2012Q372.622
2012Q472.705
2013Q173.423
2013Q273.619
2013Q374.246
2013Q474.893
2014Q174.635
2014Q275.599
2014Q376.518
2014Q476.905
2015Q177.597
2015Q278.078
2015Q378.390
2015Q478.535
2016Q178.990
2016Q279.244
2016Q379.806
2016Q480.248
2017Q180.639
2017Q281.091
2017Q381.730
2017Q482.651
2018Q183.323
2018Q283.766
2018Q384.288
2018Q484.408
2019Q184.935
2019Q285.644
2019Q386.646
2019Q487.237
2020Q186.088
2020Q279.307
2020Q385.463
2020Q486.432
2021Q187.639
2021Q289.130
2021Q389.866
2021Q491.407
2022Q191.175
2022Q291.317
2022Q391.976
2022Q492.611
2023Q193.282
2023Q293.867
2023Q394.950
2023Q495.752
2024Q195.953
2024Q296.802
2024Q397.601
2024Q498.050
2025Q197.890
2025Q298.816
2025Q399.880
2025Q4100.000

The index is rebased for context only. Real GDP is not the model’s calibrated output history. No historical counterfactual shortfall is inferred. Recession areas provide historical context, not a claim that this model predicted those crises.

Sources: BEA real GDP via FRED (retained vintage 5 August 2026); BLS unemployment via FRED (retained vintage 4 August 2026). Observation quarters end in 2025; these later vintages are not data that were necessarily available at the assumed shock date. Download historical context, definitions and source hashes (JSON).

How could this become a historical fragility trend?

Estimate the response to the same standard shock from each past quarter’s starting conditions, then plot the resulting peak shortfall against that quarter’s date. That requires consistent debt, income and borrowing-rate definitions and explicit data vintages. No such calendar-quarter series is published in this chart. A daily website refresh does not create daily balance-sheet observations.

D_A and D_B are different debt constructions; R_LOW and R_HIGH are alternative assumed starting rates. No state is preferred. Rebounds remain visible in these paths; they do not cancel the separately reported accumulated-positive-shortfall measure.

Research preview — exploratory

Experimental country comparisons

The country comparison chart is exploratory. Each country line is built from declared proxy inputs, normalised to that country’s own history, with its own measurement period — so the lines are not comparable to the US instrument or to each other, and none of this is a safety ranking. Countries are listed alphabetically, which carries no meaning.

Approximate comparison indicators — quarterly

Not a ranking. The United States line is the sealed instrument; the grey lines are approximate indicators built from different, weaker inputs. A lower number on one line does not mean that economy is safer than another - the two are not the same measurement.

Hover a name to pick its line out of the grey; click to hide it. Pick one comparison line above; tap the chart to read any quarter. Window: 2023Q3 onward - the earliest quarter every comparison leg has data, so no line is drawn over a gap. Each line’s date is its own newest complete quarter — shown per line, because the gaps differ.

There is deliberately no threshold line on this chart. The 0.40 criterion belongs to the sealed US instrument, where it is explained; the comparison lines have never been calibrated against it, so drawing it here would only invite a reading none of these lines can support.

Historical context: grey areas mark US recession peak-to-trough months; violet areas and dashed markers identify selected international, banking and policy events. Names appear in lanes above the plots. These annotations do not enter the index or establish what caused its movement.

Read the crisis dates, definitions and sources

Selected context, not an exhaustive crisis catalogue. Monthly recession shading includes the peak month through the trough month; NBER’s recession-duration count begins in the month after the peak. Boundaries are month precision, not official day-level dates. Recessions were dated retrospectively. A US interval does not classify every country as being in recession.

LabelDatesTypeInterpretation / source
Asian financial crisisJul 1997–Dec 1998Selected stress windowSelected international crisis; not a US recession band. Source
Dot-com / 2001 downturnMar–Nov 2001US recession contextUS peak-to-trough months. The technology-stock decline began before this interval. Source
Global financial crisisDec 2007–Jun 2009US recession contextUS peak-to-trough months; the wider financial crisis has different boundaries. Source
COVID-19 downturnFeb–Apr 2020US recession contextUS peak-to-trough months, dated retrospectively. Source
Ukraine invasion24 Feb 2022Dated eventStart of Russia’s full-scale invasion; a dated event, not a crisis-duration estimate. Source
SVB failure10 Mar 2023Dated eventA bank failure marker; not the duration of all 2023 banking stress. Source
2025 tariff shock2–11 Apr 2025Selected stress windowSelected trade-policy market-stress window discussed in the Fed’s April report; not a designated US recession. Source
Latest readings
EconomyReadingCategoryAs ofBasis

The range on the US row is not a confidence interval. It is the settling range of an open quarter: given the daily extremes already observed, that is where the quarter could still end up when it closes. It says nothing about how uncertain the model is. Comparison rows carry no range and no category label - not because they are more certain, but because their uncertainty (proxy substitution, publication lag, missing legs) is not quantified and the US model’s categories have never been calibrated to them. Each row’s as-of column is its newest complete quarter; it can sit several quarters behind the US row, so compare dates before comparing values.

United States · beyond market prices

Financial vulnerability: evidence by dimension

Inspect debt payments, liquid buffers, modeled transmission, freight activity and federal finances. These measures answer different questions and retain their own dates and units. They are not five interchangeable risk scores.

Compare the evidence

Static view: all five dimensions. JavaScript enables selection and history controls.

Published household estimate

Debt-service / solvency

How much household income is committed to required debt payments?

11.16%

2026Q1 · quarterly · latest retained evidence

Published household statistics: quarterly estimated payment-burden history. Business payment coverage and aggregate solvency remain separate questions.

How to read it: Higher means more household income committed to required debt payments; lower means less. There is no universal safe cutoff.

Latest retained reading: 2026Q1: about $11.16 in required debt payments per $100 of household disposable income. This aggregate does not identify which households are in distress.

Household payment burden

Y axis: Required household payments / disposable income (%)

Household payment burdenRequired household payments / disposable income (%). Calendar time on the horizontal axis. Observations and scenarios retain their own dates and frequency. Exact recorded values appear in the table; a dash means no value exists on that date.COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 20208.839.6410.4611.2712.092017201820192020202120222023202420252026Household required debt payments / disposable incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2016Q1: 11.76 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2016Q2: 11.77 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2016Q3: 11.77 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2016Q4: 11.87 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2017Q1: 11.72 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2017Q2: 11.76 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2017Q3: 11.82 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2017Q4: 11.82 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2018Q1: 11.64 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2018Q2: 11.6 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2018Q3: 11.62 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2018Q4: 11.67 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2019Q1: 11.5 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2019Q2: 11.63 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2019Q3: 11.65 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2019Q4: 11.73 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2020Q1: 11.59 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2020Q2: 9.74 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2020Q3: 10.06 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2020Q4: 10.39 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2021Q1: 9.05 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2021Q2: 9.84 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2021Q3: 10.01 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2021Q4: 10.23 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2022Q1: 10.47 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2022Q2: 10.68 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2022Q3: 10.57 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2022Q4: 10.74 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2023Q1: 10.56 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2023Q2: 10.58 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2023Q3: 10.75 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2023Q4: 11.1 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2024Q1: 11.06 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2024Q2: 11.02 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2024Q3: 11.14 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2024Q4: 11.12 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2025Q1: 11.11 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2025Q2: 11.12 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2025Q3: 11.23 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2025Q4: 11.32 % of disposable personal incomeHousehold required debt payments / disposable income; 2026Q1: 11.16 % of disposable personal income

X axis: calendar dates; each series retains its own observation or simulation cadence.

Named US recession intervals provide historical context. They do not identify the cause of each change.

  • COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 2020 Source
Household required debt payments / disposable income
Read values as a table
Retained-vintage observations, plotted at period end. Connecting points does not create daily observations. Fiscal years end September 30. Units: % of disposable personal income.
Date / observation periodHousehold required debt payments / disposable income
2016Q111.76
2016Q211.77
2016Q311.77
2016Q411.87
2017Q111.72
2017Q211.76
2017Q311.82
2017Q411.82
2018Q111.64
2018Q211.6
2018Q311.62
2018Q411.67
2019Q111.5
2019Q211.63
2019Q311.65
2019Q411.73
2020Q111.59
2020Q29.74
2020Q310.06
2020Q410.39
2021Q19.05
2021Q29.84
2021Q310.01
2021Q410.23
2022Q110.47
2022Q210.68
2022Q310.57
2022Q410.74
2023Q110.56
2023Q210.58
2023Q310.75
2023Q411.1
2024Q111.06
2024Q211.02
2024Q311.14
2024Q411.12
2025Q111.11
2025Q211.12
2025Q311.23
2025Q411.32
2026Q111.16

How to use it: Publisher estimate of the aggregate household payment burden. Required payments differ from payments actually made and from business debt service.

Definition, coverage and source dates

Household required debt payments / disposable income: Zero means no required payments in this ratio, not a safe-economy threshold. There is no calibrated risk cutoff. A larger aggregate share of household disposable income is committed to required payments. Units: % of disposable personal income; cadence: quarterly.

  • Households only; not corporate debt service or all private borrowers.
  • An aggregate ratio conceals unequal income, debt and liquid buffers.
  • No pre-2005 method splice or daily interpolation.
  • OUR RETRIEVAL RETURNED TEXT STATING that quarterly values computed with the current methodology are available FROM 2005 FORWARD. This matches the pack exactly: 85 quarterly observations, 2005-01-01 through 2026-01-01
  • OUR RETRIEVAL RETURNED NO STATEMENT of when the current methodology was introduced, revised or first applied - only of when values computed with it are available. A CONVERSION THAT CAN DROP CONTENT CANNOT DISTINGUISH AN ABSENCE AT THE SOURCE FROM AN ABSENCE IN THE RENDERING, so this is NOT evidence that the page is silent; it is evidence that what reached us was. No method-vintage is recorded here either way
  • Historical values use the retained current vintage; they are not an archive of the values known or published at each historical date.
  • fed-household-payments · retained vintage 2026-07-25 · retrieval 2026-07-26T02:59:25Z
    Source SHA-256: 6c5ed5982a05655f5c5e47118abc325582c03b61097a38d0e858f0897a0fb3a9

Explore the debt-service / solvency mechanism →

Observed financial ratio

Refinancing / liquidity

How do corporate broad liquid assets compare with short-term liabilities?

95.33%

2026Q2 · quarterly · latest retained evidence

Published balance-sheet statistics: a quarterly sector ratio gives funding context, without claiming a measured maturity wall.

How to read it: Higher means more broad liquid assets per dollar of short-term liabilities; lower means less coverage. This is not all immediately available cash.

Latest retained reading: 2026Q2: about $95.33 in broad liquid assets per $100 of short-term corporate liabilities. Below 100% alone does not establish a funding shortfall.

Corporate liquidity coverage

Y axis: Broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities (%)

Corporate liquidity coverageBroad liquid assets / short-term liabilities (%). Calendar time on the horizontal axis. Observations and scenarios retain their own dates and frequency. Exact recorded values appear in the table; a dash means no value exists on that date.COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 202068.876.584.39299.72017201820192020202120222023202420252026Corporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2016Q2: 79.52 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2016Q3: 84.02 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2016Q4: 85.34 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2017Q1: 84.48 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2017Q2: 84.81 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2017Q3: 87.61 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2017Q4: 83.62 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2018Q1: 80.94 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2018Q2: 76.24 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2018Q3: 77.17 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2018Q4: 70.94 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2019Q1: 72.39 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2019Q2: 75.58 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2019Q3: 78.95 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2019Q4: 80.79 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2020Q1: 75.53 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2020Q2: 89.36 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2020Q3: 92.76 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2020Q4: 93.74 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2021Q1: 94.87 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2021Q2: 96.91 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2021Q3: 97.61 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2021Q4: 96.55 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2022Q1: 87.65 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2022Q2: 75.03 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2022Q3: 71.49 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2022Q4: 75.5 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2023Q1: 77.37 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2023Q2: 80.62 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2023Q3: 79.42 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2023Q4: 82.13 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2024Q1: 86.28 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2024Q2: 87.5 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2024Q3: 90.7 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2024Q4: 92.29 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2025Q1: 87.3 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2025Q2: 90.26 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2025Q3: 93.14 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2025Q4: 95.87 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2026Q1: 89.39 % of short-term liabilitiesCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities; 2026Q2: 95.33 % of short-term liabilities

X axis: calendar dates; each series retains its own observation or simulation cadence.

Named US recession intervals provide historical context. They do not identify the cause of each change.

  • COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 2020 Source
Corporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities
Read values as a table
Retained-vintage observations, plotted at period end. Connecting points does not create daily observations. Fiscal years end September 30. Units: % of short-term liabilities.
Date / observation periodCorporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities
2016Q279.52
2016Q384.02
2016Q485.34
2017Q184.48
2017Q284.81
2017Q387.61
2017Q483.62
2018Q180.94
2018Q276.24
2018Q377.17
2018Q470.94
2019Q172.39
2019Q275.58
2019Q378.95
2019Q480.79
2020Q175.53
2020Q289.36
2020Q392.76
2020Q493.74
2021Q194.87
2021Q296.91
2021Q397.61
2021Q496.55
2022Q187.65
2022Q275.03
2022Q371.49
2022Q475.5
2023Q177.37
2023Q280.62
2023Q379.42
2023Q482.13
2024Q186.28
2024Q287.5
2024Q390.7
2024Q492.29
2025Q187.3
2025Q290.26
2025Q393.14
2025Q495.87
2026Q189.39
2026Q295.33

How to use it: A ratio for the nonfinancial corporate sector. Broad liquid assets are not all immediately available cash, and aggregation can hide individual funding gaps.

Definition, coverage and source dates

Corporate broad liquid assets / short-term liabilities: 100% means equal aggregate broad liquid assets and short-term liabilities; it is not a solvency or liquidity pass/fail cutoff. More broad liquid assets relative to the sector's short-term liabilities; accessibility and payment timing remain unknown. Units: % of short-term liabilities; cadence: quarterly.

  • Broad liquid assets are not cash and may not be accessible at a common price under stress.
  • No borrower-level maturities, credit-line availability, collateral calls or near-term cash-flow gap are established.
  • fed-corporate-balance-sheet · retained vintage 2026-09-11 · retrieval 2026-09-20T06:36:24Z
    Source SHA-256: 1f8d3aa0b204830c4e0b55ab008b6eab8500292cf6793a67d371e60233f6207d
  • fed-corporate-unit-annotation · retained vintage 2026-09-20 · retrieval not recorded
    Source SHA-256: 145bd46e7963644a81aaf5fa090fa2ec43ea3c2662ad3368f35a1f36573f47e3

Explore the refinancing / liquidity mechanism →

Withheld pending rights determination

Financial contagion

How does a 30% assumed distress seed spread through a 25-sector network with capital assumed at 8% of network assets?

Withheld

Pending rights determination

Conditional model experiment: 25 measured sectors, a 30% initial distress seed and assumed 8% capital buffers; three statistical-discrepancy treatments.

This dimension is withheld from public evidence. the primary input to this dimension, `fed-sector-exposures`, has UNESTABLISHED redistribution rights, and this dimension is held until they are confirmed

This is not a data gap or an unmeasured factor — it is a deliberate withholding decision, distinct from this page's own "unavailable" state for an absent calibrated score. It will be published once an actual determination is made, not once this note is simply removed.

Explore the financial contagion mechanism →

Observed context

External / supply dependencies

Is measured freight activity expanding or contracting?

-1.75% YoY

2026-06 · monthly · latest retained evidence

Observed activity context: monthly freight-volume growth is a supporting supply-and-demand condition, not a direct foreign-dependency estimate.

How to read it: Higher means faster freight-volume growth, not safer supply chains. Lower growth can reflect demand or supply changes.

Latest retained reading: 2026-06: freight volume was 1.75% lower than the same month a year earlier. This alone cannot distinguish weaker demand from disrupted supply.

Freight volume change

% change from the same month one year earlier — Observed freight activity: lower volume can reflect demand or supply. This does not measure missing supplies or a disruption probability.

Y axis: Freight volume change from the same month a year earlier (%)

Freight volume changeFreight volume change from the same month a year earlier (%). Calendar time on the horizontal axis. Observations and scenarios retain their own dates and frequency. Exact recorded values appear in the table; a dash means no value exists on that date.COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 2020-11.6-5.8-05.811.62017201820192020202120222023202420252026US freight transportation volume: year-over-year changeUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2016-06: 1.24 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2016-07: 2.29 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2016-08: 0.24 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2016-09: -0.89 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2016-10: 0.24 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2016-11: 1.99 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2016-12: 3.24 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-01: 1.39 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-02: 2.64 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-03: 3.74 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-04: 2.04 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-05: 3.2 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-06: 2.36 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-07: 2.4 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-08: 4.63 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-09: 5.57 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-10: 5.86 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-11: 6.99 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2017-12: 7.33 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-01: 6.06 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-02: 7.3 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-03: 8.33 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-04: 7.9 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-05: 8.18 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-06: 8.82 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-07: 5.77 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-08: 5.66 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-09: 7.14 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-10: 6.92 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-11: 5.69 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2018-12: 2.93 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-01: 4.72 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-02: 1.94 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-03: 0.81 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-04: 1.78 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-05: 0.88 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-06: -0.22 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-07: 2.21 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-08: 3.23 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-09: -0.72 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-10: -1.44 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-11: -1.8 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2019-12: -1.31 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-01: -1.38 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-02: -0.88 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-03: -1.83 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-04: -10.03 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-05: -8.66 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-06: -5.93 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-07: -4.4 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-08: -6.97 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-09: -4.31 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-10: -3.72 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-11: -3.22 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2020-12: -1.11 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-01: 0.44 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-02: -2.52 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-03: 0.52 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-04: 10.02 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-05: 7.65 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-06: 4.28 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-07: 0.3 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-08: 0.69 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-09: 1.3 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-10: 1.89 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-11: 2.42 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2021-12: 1.64 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-01: 0.88 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-02: 4.33 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-03: 3.34 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-04: 1.54 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-05: 2.15 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-06: 3.21 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-07: 3.09 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-08: 4.63 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-09: 4.14 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-10: 1.86 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-11: -0.59 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2022-12: -0.59 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-01: 0.51 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-02: 1.16 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-03: -1.01 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-04: -1.01 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-05: -0.87 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-06: -0.87 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-07: 0.51 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-08: -0.58 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-09: -0.58 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-10: 0.51 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-11: 2.08 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2023-12: 2.37 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-01: -2.1 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-02: -1.73 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-03: -0.73 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-04: -1.31 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-05: 1.32 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-06: 0.73 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-07: -0.29 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-08: 1.17 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-09: -0.15 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-10: 0.44 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-11: -0.29 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2024-12: -0.79 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-01: 1.92 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-02: 0.07 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-03: 0.66 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-04: 1.7 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-05: -1.15 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-06: -0.58 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-07: 0.87 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-08: 0.14 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-09: 0.51 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-10: -1.16 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-11: 0.07 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2025-12: -0.29 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2026-01: -1.09 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2026-02: 1.1 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2026-03: 1.24 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2026-04: 0.51 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2026-05: -1.24 % change from the same month one year earlierUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change; 2026-06: -1.75 % change from the same month one year earlier

X axis: calendar dates; each series retains its own observation or simulation cadence.

Named US recession intervals provide historical context. They do not identify the cause of each change.

  • COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 2020 Source
US freight transportation volume: year-over-year change
Read values as a table
Retained-vintage observations, plotted at period end. Connecting points does not create daily observations. Fiscal years end September 30. Units: % change from the same month one year earlier.
Date / observation periodUS freight transportation volume: year-over-year change
2016-061.24
2016-072.29
2016-080.24
2016-09-0.89
2016-100.24
2016-111.99
2016-123.24
2017-011.39
2017-022.64
2017-033.74
2017-042.04
2017-053.2
2017-062.36
2017-072.4
2017-084.63
2017-095.57
2017-105.86
2017-116.99
2017-127.33
2018-016.06
2018-027.3
2018-038.33
2018-047.9
2018-058.18
2018-068.82
2018-075.77
2018-085.66
2018-097.14
2018-106.92
2018-115.69
2018-122.93
2019-014.72
2019-021.94
2019-030.81
2019-041.78
2019-050.88
2019-06-0.22
2019-072.21
2019-083.23
2019-09-0.72
2019-10-1.44
2019-11-1.8
2019-12-1.31
2020-01-1.38
2020-02-0.88
2020-03-1.83
2020-04-10.03
2020-05-8.66
2020-06-5.93
2020-07-4.4
2020-08-6.97
2020-09-4.31
2020-10-3.72
2020-11-3.22
2020-12-1.11
2021-010.44
2021-02-2.52
2021-030.52
2021-0410.02
2021-057.65
2021-064.28
2021-070.3
2021-080.69
2021-091.3
2021-101.89
2021-112.42
2021-121.64
2022-010.88
2022-024.33
2022-033.34
2022-041.54
2022-052.15
2022-063.21
2022-073.09
2022-084.63
2022-094.14
2022-101.86
2022-11-0.59
2022-12-0.59
2023-010.51
2023-021.16
2023-03-1.01
2023-04-1.01
2023-05-0.87
2023-06-0.87
2023-070.51
2023-08-0.58
2023-09-0.58
2023-100.51
2023-112.08
2023-122.37
2024-01-2.1
2024-02-1.73
2024-03-0.73
2024-04-1.31
2024-051.32
2024-060.73
2024-07-0.29
2024-081.17
2024-09-0.15
2024-100.44
2024-11-0.29
2024-12-0.79
2025-011.92
2025-020.07
2025-030.66
2025-041.7
2025-05-1.15
2025-06-0.58
2025-070.87
2025-080.14
2025-090.51
2025-10-1.16
2025-110.07
2025-12-0.29
2026-01-1.09
2026-021.1
2026-031.24
2026-040.51
2026-05-1.24
2026-06-1.75

How to use it: BTS Freight Transportation Services Index volume growth. Lower volumes can reflect weaker demand or a disruption; this series alone cannot separate them.

Definition, coverage and source dates

US freight transportation volume: year-over-year change: Zero means unchanged measured freight volume versus the same month one year earlier, not absence of supply vulnerability. Faster freight-volume growth; it does not establish safer supply chains. Units: % change from the same month one year earlier; cadence: monthly.

  • This is US freight activity, not foreign supplier concentration, available inventory, delivery delay or interruption probability.
  • Demand weakness and supply constraints can both lower freight volume; no cause is inferred from this series alone.
  • bls-bts-freight · retained vintage see evidence JSON · retrieval 2026-09-04T16:52:51.542289+00:00
    Source SHA-256: 3a9edac850670738bd3f3710112871fce5900a38fe1abf5c0c73208cda1831f6

Explore the external / supply dependencies mechanism →

Observed context

Fiscal / policy buffers

How do annual federal receipts, spending and the budget balance compare?

$5.24tn / $7.01tn

FY2025 · annual fiscal year · latest retained evidence

Observed fiscal context: compatible fiscal-year cash-flow histories show the federal financing position.

How to read it: With receipts unchanged, higher outlays widen the deficit; with outlays unchanged, higher receipts narrow it. Neither alone measures policy capacity.

Latest retained reading: FY2025: outlays exceeded receipts by $1.77 trillion in current dollars. This balance is not a default probability or a measure of remaining fiscal room.

Balance: $-1.77 trillion (receipts minus outlays; a negative value is a deficit).

Federal receipts / outlays

trillion current USD per fiscal year — Federal fiscal flows: a deficit is not a measure of sovereign default risk or remaining policy capacity.

Y axis: Federal fiscal-year flows (trillion US dollars, nominal)

Federal receipts / outlaysFederal fiscal-year flows (trillion US dollars, nominal). Calendar time on the horizontal axis. Observations and scenarios retain their own dates and frequency. Exact recorded values appear in the table; a dash means no value exists on that date.COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 20202.945.16.27.32016201720182019202020212022202320242025Federal receiptsFederal receipts; FY2015: 3.25 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2016: 3.27 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2017: 3.32 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2018: 3.33 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2019: 3.46 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2020: 3.42 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2021: 4.05 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2022: 4.9 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2023: 4.44 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2024: 4.92 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal receipts; FY2025: 5.24 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlaysFederal outlays; FY2015: 3.69 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2016: 3.85 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2017: 3.98 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2018: 4.11 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2019: 4.45 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2020: 6.52 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2021: 6.82 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2022: 6.27 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2023: 6.13 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2024: 6.74 trillion current USD per fiscal yearFederal outlays; FY2025: 7.01 trillion current USD per fiscal year

X axis: calendar dates; each series retains its own observation or simulation cadence.

Named US recession intervals provide historical context. They do not identify the cause of each change.

  • COVID-19 downturn · Feb–Apr 2020 Source
Federal receiptsFederal outlays
Read values as a table
Retained-vintage observations, plotted at period end. Connecting points does not create daily observations. Fiscal years end September 30. Units: trillion current USD per fiscal year.
Date / observation periodFederal receiptsFederal outlays
FY20153.253.69
FY20163.273.85
FY20173.323.98
FY20183.334.11
FY20193.464.45
FY20203.426.52
FY20214.056.82
FY20224.96.27
FY20234.446.13
FY20244.926.74
FY20255.247.01

How to use it: US federal budget cash flows, aligned to the same fiscal year; not all levels of government. Nominal values are not inflation-adjusted.

Definition, coverage and source dates

Federal receipts: Balance zero means receipts equal outlays. Positive is surplus, negative is deficit. Neither is a calibrated measure of fiscal capacity. A larger nominal annual flow; the sign of the balance distinguishes surplus from deficit. Units: trillion current USD per fiscal year; cadence: annual fiscal year.

Federal outlays: Balance zero means receipts equal outlays. Positive is surplus, negative is deficit. Neither is a calibrated measure of fiscal capacity. A larger nominal annual flow; the sign of the balance distinguishes surplus from deficit. Units: trillion current USD per fiscal year; cadence: annual fiscal year.

Federal budget balance (receipts minus outlays): Balance zero means receipts equal outlays. Positive is surplus, negative is deficit. Neither is a calibrated measure of fiscal capacity. A larger nominal annual flow; the sign of the balance distinguishes surplus from deficit. Units: trillion current USD per fiscal year; cadence: annual fiscal year.

  • Nominal fiscal-year federal flows; not a complete national balance sheet or all levels of government.
  • Debt maturity, currency, market access, inflation and institutional capacity remain outside this factor panel.
  • No quarterly NIPA interest is divided by fiscal-year cash receipts.
  • treasury-fyfr · retained vintage 2026-08-05 · retrieval 2026-08-05T09:26:36Z
    Source SHA-256: 2e0cc4e4e68450fa8a71aab3698ed7ba5f4792ea7480d015047339641e66a43f
  • treasury-fyonet · retained vintage 2026-08-05 · retrieval 2026-08-05T09:26:36Z
    Source SHA-256: f44e0986caf6309aab5c1259e4065a9703d5b99e29c147a1a4bcdb149dfed334
  • treasury-fyfsd · retained vintage 2026-08-05 · retrieval 2026-08-05T09:26:37Z
    Source SHA-256: f4e5b30165d969da81b40df3618399e7f68746e2594b07e8e3515ae8deaf4e5a

Explore the fiscal / policy buffers mechanism →

Refresh: this is a retained-data release. Automated source checking is not connected to this panel. A new page build does not mean its quarterly or annual observations changed. It may omit newer releases; source dates and vintages are available above and in the JSON.

Overall fragility: not estimated. Missing maturity schedules, institution-level counterparty exposures, supply dependencies and policy constraints remain unknown. There is no combined probability or confidence percentage.

Download this versioned evidence profile (JSON) · How the vulnerability types differ

Types of financial-system vulnerability

The market index monitors four public market signals. The five-dimension evidence panel adds dated household debt-service and corporate liquidity ratios, a conditional contagion experiment, and observed freight and fiscal context. The Shock-response paths show sensitivity to an assumed rate shock. These are different measurements and experiments, not a common set of calibrated risk scores. Structural factors do not feed the market index. The explanations below describe the mechanisms and the evidence still missing.

Market conditions / yield-curve signals What do current market prices say about near-term financial stress? Implemented · experimental
Mechanism
Four public market drivers observed daily: the 10y−2y Treasury yield-curve spread, a corporate credit spread, equity volatility and an equity-valuation measure. Each reflects investors’ forward-looking pricing of risk, not a direct measurement of any borrower’s balance sheet.
Causal chain
When investors expect weaker growth or tighter credit conditions, they demand more compensation for holding longer-dated or riskier assets; that repricing shows up first in the yield curve, credit spreads, volatility and valuations, often before the structural stress those conditions may eventually cause becomes visible in slower-moving data.
Assessment status
Implemented, experimental. A daily composite reading is published below, on this same page. Its retrospective record against past drawdowns is mixed — see “what it cannot see” above the chart.
Supporting evidence
The current reading and its full daily and quarterly history are below. The yield-curve leg specifically — what upward, flat, inverted and higher-rate settings mean — is explained in the yield-curve guide.
Useful for
A daily monitoring question: have market prices moved to reflect more financial-system stress since yesterday?
Limit
A market-price composite is not a recession probability and does not measure any of the five structural vulnerabilities below directly — it is a separate, narrower signal.
Debt-service / solvency Can households and businesses meet payments and absorb losses? Published household estimate
Mechanism
Separate required-payment burden from balance-sheet solvency. Debt outstanding, required payments relative to income, interest coverage and liquid buffers answer different parts of the question. Household and business evidence stays separate — they are not one figure.
Causal chain
A shock that cuts income or raises borrowing costs increases the payments due relative to what a borrower has on hand to pay them; if liquid buffers cannot absorb that gap, missed payments and impaired solvency follow.
Assessment status
Published household estimate available above. A calibrated current score for the whole dimension is not estimated.
Supporting evidence
The household required-payment ratio is now charted by quarter. Corporate payment burdens, distribution and balance-sheet solvency remain separate gaps. Inspect the dated evidence.
Useful for
A monitoring question: what changes if income falls or borrowing costs reset?
Limit
An aggregate payment ratio does not reveal every borrower’s distress or establish a default probability.
Guide
Try the interactive teaching example →
Refinancing / liquidity Can obligations be paid or refinanced when they fall due? Observed corporate factor
Mechanism
Maturity dates, repricing exposure, cash and committed credit lines, and financing terms. Higher market credit spreads are funding context, not a measured maturity wall.
Causal chain
When debt falls due it must be repaid or replaced with new financing; if funding tightens or a lender pulls back at exactly that moment, an otherwise solvent borrower can be forced into default or a forced sale for lack of cash, not lack of net worth.
Assessment status
Observed corporate factor available above. A calibrated current score for the whole dimension is not estimated.
Supporting evidence
The nonfinancial corporate broad-liquid-assets / short-term-liabilities ratio is now charted. A ratio below 100% is not a measured funding shortfall; maturities and immediately accessible cash are not supplied. Inspect the dated evidence.
Useful for
A monitoring question: what happens if funding is unavailable for three months?
Limit
A solvent borrower can still be illiquid; the market-conditions index below does not measure this separately.
Guide
Try the interactive teaching example →
Financial contagion How could losses spread between institutions or sectors? Conditional model result
Mechanism
Counterparty exposures, leverage, collateral, common asset holdings, and withdrawal or redemption terms. Existing mechanism models are separate from a measured current network of exposures.
Causal chain
A loss at one institution can force asset sales or funding withdrawals that transmit stress to its counterparties and to others holding similar assets, so an initially contained loss can widen into a broader event through exposure and correlation, not through the size of the first loss alone.
Assessment status
Conditional model result available above. A calibrated current score for the whole dimension is not estimated.
Supporting evidence
The existing sector-network experiment now shows conditional amplification under three allocation treatments. Its assumed shock and capital buffers are explicit; it is not a current distress observation. Inspect the dated evidence.
Useful for
A scenario question: which counterparties and common assets would amplify an initial loss?
Limit
A scenario drawn on assumed links is not an observed probability or a complete financial-system exposure map.
Guide
Try the interactive teaching example →
External / supply dependencies Which inputs or routes could interrupt production? Observed freight context
Mechanism
Product-specific import/supplier concentration, substitutability, inventories, and route dependencies. Freight cost is context, not a disruption probability.
Causal chain
If a concentrated input, supplier, or transport route is disrupted, production that depends on it slows or stops until a substitute, inventory buffer, or alternate route is found; the economic cost depends on substitutability and lead time, not on the disrupted input's trade value.
Assessment status
Observed freight context available above. A calibrated current score for the whole dimension is not estimated.
Supporting evidence
Monthly US freight-volume growth is now charted as activity context. It cannot identify foreign dependencies or distinguish weaker demand from a supply interruption. Inspect the dated evidence.
Useful for
A monitoring question: what changes if a critical supplier or route is unavailable?
Limit
Trade value alone cannot identify physical bottlenecks, spare capacity, or replacement time.
Guide
Try the interactive teaching example →
Fiscal / policy buffers What constrains the response to a shock? Observed fiscal context
Mechanism
Interest burden, revenue, debt maturity and currency composition, monetary arrangements, and institutional constraints.
Causal chain
A revenue shortfall or a rise in borrowing costs increases financing needs just as a shock may demand more spending; the ability to respond is constrained by how quickly debt must be rolled at the new terms and by institutional limits on borrowing or monetary support, not by the public debt/GDP ratio alone.
Assessment status
Observed fiscal context available above. A calibrated current score for the whole dimension is not estimated.
Supporting evidence
Annual federal receipts, outlays and their balance are now presented on the same fiscal-year basis. These are financing context, not a measure of remaining policy capacity. Inspect the dated evidence.
Useful for
A monitoring question: what happens to financing needs and response options under a revenue or interest-cost shock?
Limit
Public debt/GDP alone does not measure policy capacity; budget cash flows and national-accounts accruals answer different questions.
Guide
Try the interactive teaching example →

An unavailable mechanism is unknown, not zero or benign. A populated factor or scenario does not mean that the whole vulnerability dimension is measured.

How to read the fragility view

What the number is

A single 0–1 score summarising market conditions associated with credit-cycle stress — an experimental index, not a measurement of every private balance-sheet exposure. It combines four families of public market driver: the term structure of interest rates, a credit spread, equity volatility, and an equity valuation level. Higher means a higher combined market-conditions score under this method — not a higher probability of any event, and not a reading of the debt-service, refinancing, contagion, external or fiscal buffers dimensions named above, which this index does not feed and do not feed it. It does not directly observe household debt service, corporate refinancing needs, cash buffers or bank positions; those belong to separate, separately named models.

The model recomputes the score daily and publishes it to cloud storage; this page reads that published copy (with a baked fallback that is labelled when stale). The inputs have different cadences: the market legs publish daily, usually a day or two apart, while the valuation leg is an annual curated value held constant through the year — so a daily publication is not four daily observations. Daily movement enters only through quarter-to-date driver means — a single day cannot swing the reading on its own, which is why the line is smooth and why a still-open quarter is marked provisional.

InputPlain explanationLimitation to retain
Treasury yield curve The difference between long- and shorter-term Treasury yields; recent flat/inverted conditions raise this component. Retained history can keep it elevated after the current curve changes.
Corporate credit spread The extra yield on Baa corporate debt relative to Treasuries. A market financing indicator, not the amount of debt or a measure of total balance-sheet losses.
Equity volatility The VIX measure of expected equity-market volatility. Often responds during a sell-off; it does not necessarily lead the shock.
Equity valuation Share prices relative to long-run earnings, using CAPE. Annual input in this implementation; high valuation alone does not identify when a decline will occur.

The yield-curve input is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield. See the rates, their spread and the market index together in our yield-curve guide.

What the regimes mean

The four regime names are bands of the combined score, not a count of stretched legs — a weighted composite does not enforce a fixed number of drivers being stretched at any given band. Elevated is the one precisely defined boundary: the reading is above 0.40, the sealed tripwire's own public criterion. Benign, Watch and Fragile are authored categories on either side of it: the thresholds were chosen by this model's authors, and crossing one is a statement about the combined index, not a calibrated probability of any event and not a tally of how many of the four inputs are individually stretched.

What it is not

It is not a market call, not a recession probability, not a timing signal, and not a demonstrated forecasting record. It is model-conditional: it says what this model reads from these drivers. Its retrospective record on credit-cycle drawdowns is mixed (stated above), and it says nothing about exogenous shocks — a war, a pandemic, a policy accident — that arrive from outside its market drivers.

Why the US line is different

The US reading is the sealed instrument: all four legs are the United States' own published series — three at daily frequency, the valuation leg an annual curated value — and the same instrument stands behind a sealed, dated, scoreable prediction in the ledger. When it is wrong, it will be scored in public like any other entry. Sealing makes the record checkable; it does not, by itself, make the model right.

Why the other lines are approximate

No other economy has four keyless daily drivers of its own. The comparison lines fill the gaps with declared proxies — a regional credit spread instead of a national one, a global volatility index, market capitalisation over GDP as the valuation leg, normalised against that country's own history. Each substitution is listed on the country card on the home page.

That makes each of them useful for watching its own economy's direction of travel. It does not make them the same instrument as the US index, and it does not support ranking economies against each other — the same numeric value need not represent the same exposure in two countries. They are approximate: not sealed, not scored, and never published as predictions.

Where we publish nothing. A country reading is not the US instrument pointed at other data: with legs missing, and monthly, lagged inputs, it would be a different model with a different calibration — and it would need its own sealed lanes before it deserved to be called a prediction. Showing one under the same name is exactly the failure this ledger exists to prevent.