ForeGlass Engine · model-conditional estimate
Shock-response fragility estimate How much could output and employment fall if borrowing rates suddenly rise? Compare a shocked economy with its own no-shock path, while debt, profits, wages and investment evolve together.
A conditional stress estimate, not today’s US fragility reading. These experiments retain 2025Q4 input constructions and a 2023 wage-share mapping. Debt definitions are still being reconciled. All four starting assumptions have equal status; none is a central forecast. No recession probability or calibrated confidence level is available.
Explore the estimate Calculation and interpretation Evidence and limits Fragility to an interest-rate shock · 3 model years
Change the shock. Watch the response. Use the discrete slider to select an actual engine run: no shock, +1, or +2 percentage points in the annual real borrowing rate for the first year. The pulse reprices all modeled debt immediately. This is an assumed stress, not a policy-rate forecast or a realistic maturity ladder.
Scenario controls Temporary rate increase +2 percentage points for one year 0 / +1 / +2 percentage points · exact precomputed runs
Starting assumptions Compare all four assumptions D_A/R_LOW D_A/R_HIGH D_B/R_LOW D_B/R_HIGH D_A and D_B are alternative debt constructions; R_LOW and R_HIGH are assumed real borrowing rates. Their spread is not a probability distribution.
Reset scenario Output shortfall versus the paired baseline %; positive = below baseline · conditional path
Assumed stress begins -0.232 -0.129 -0.026 0.076 0.179 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Shaded: Assumed real-rate increase during model years 0–1. Horizontal axis: elapsed model years, not calendar dates..
Read values as a table Scenario period No-shock difference = 0 (%; positive = below baseline) D_A/R_LOW shock effect (%; positive = below baseline) D_A/R_HIGH shock effect (%; positive = below baseline) D_B/R_LOW shock effect (%; positive = below baseline) D_B/R_HIGH shock effect (%; positive = below baseline) 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.02 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.006 0.006 0.03 0.000 0.007 0.007 0.012 0.011 0.05 0.000 0.011 0.011 0.018 0.017 0.06 0.000 0.015 0.014 0.023 0.022 0.08 0.000 0.018 0.018 0.029 0.028 0.09 0.000 0.022 0.021 0.035 0.033 0.11 0.000 0.025 0.025 0.040 0.038 0.13 0.000 0.029 0.028 0.045 0.044 0.14 0.000 0.032 0.031 0.051 0.049 0.16 0.000 0.035 0.034 0.056 0.053 0.17 0.000 0.038 0.037 0.061 0.058 0.19 0.000 0.041 0.040 0.065 0.063 0.20 0.000 0.044 0.043 0.070 0.067 0.22 0.000 0.047 0.046 0.074 0.072 0.23 0.000 0.050 0.048 0.079 0.076 0.25 0.000 0.052 0.051 0.083 0.080 0.27 0.000 0.055 0.054 0.087 0.084 0.28 0.000 0.057 0.056 0.091 0.088 0.30 0.000 0.059 0.058 0.095 0.092 0.31 0.000 0.062 0.061 0.098 0.095 0.33 0.000 0.064 0.063 0.101 0.099 0.34 0.000 0.066 0.065 0.105 0.102 0.36 0.000 0.068 0.067 0.108 0.105 0.38 0.000 0.069 0.069 0.111 0.108 0.39 0.000 0.071 0.070 0.113 0.111 0.41 0.000 0.073 0.072 0.116 0.114 0.42 0.000 0.074 0.074 0.118 0.116 0.44 0.000 0.076 0.075 0.120 0.119 0.45 0.000 0.077 0.076 0.123 0.121 0.47 0.000 0.078 0.078 0.124 0.123 0.48 0.000 0.079 0.079 0.126 0.125 0.50 0.000 0.080 0.080 0.128 0.127 0.52 0.000 0.081 0.081 0.129 0.129 0.53 0.000 0.082 0.082 0.131 0.131 0.55 0.000 0.083 0.083 0.132 0.132 0.56 0.000 0.083 0.084 0.133 0.134 0.58 0.000 0.084 0.085 0.134 0.135 0.59 0.000 0.085 0.085 0.135 0.136 0.61 0.000 0.085 0.086 0.136 0.137 0.63 0.000 0.085 0.086 0.136 0.138 0.64 0.000 0.086 0.087 0.137 0.139 0.66 0.000 0.086 0.087 0.137 0.140 0.67 0.000 0.086 0.088 0.138 0.141 0.69 0.000 0.086 0.088 0.138 0.141 0.70 0.000 0.086 0.088 0.138 0.142 0.72 0.000 0.087 0.089 0.138 0.143 0.73 0.000 0.087 0.089 0.138 0.143 0.75 0.000 0.086 0.089 0.138 0.143 0.77 0.000 0.086 0.089 0.138 0.144 0.78 0.000 0.086 0.089 0.138 0.144 0.80 0.000 0.086 0.089 0.137 0.144 0.81 0.000 0.086 0.089 0.137 0.144 0.83 0.000 0.086 0.089 0.137 0.144 0.84 0.000 0.085 0.089 0.136 0.144 0.86 0.000 0.085 0.089 0.136 0.144 0.88 0.000 0.085 0.089 0.135 0.144 0.89 0.000 0.084 0.089 0.135 0.144 0.91 0.000 0.084 0.089 0.134 0.144 0.92 0.000 0.084 0.088 0.133 0.144 0.94 0.000 0.083 0.088 0.133 0.144 0.95 0.000 0.083 0.088 0.132 0.144 0.97 0.000 0.082 0.088 0.131 0.143 0.98 0.000 0.082 0.087 0.131 0.143 1.00 0.000 0.082 0.087 0.130 0.143 1.02 0.000 0.079 0.085 0.126 0.139 1.03 0.000 0.076 0.082 0.122 0.135 1.05 0.000 0.074 0.080 0.117 0.132 1.06 0.000 0.071 0.077 0.113 0.128 1.08 0.000 0.068 0.075 0.109 0.124 1.09 0.000 0.066 0.072 0.105 0.120 1.11 0.000 0.063 0.070 0.101 0.117 1.13 0.000 0.060 0.067 0.097 0.113 1.14 0.000 0.058 0.065 0.093 0.109 1.16 0.000 0.055 0.062 0.088 0.105 1.17 0.000 0.053 0.060 0.084 0.102 1.19 0.000 0.050 0.057 0.080 0.098 1.20 0.000 0.047 0.055 0.076 0.094 1.22 0.000 0.045 0.053 0.072 0.090 1.23 0.000 0.042 0.050 0.068 0.087 1.25 0.000 0.040 0.048 0.064 0.083 1.27 0.000 0.037 0.045 0.060 0.079 1.28 0.000 0.035 0.043 0.056 0.076 1.30 0.000 0.032 0.040 0.052 0.072 1.31 0.000 0.030 0.038 0.048 0.068 1.33 0.000 0.027 0.036 0.044 0.065 1.34 0.000 0.025 0.033 0.041 0.061 1.36 0.000 0.022 0.031 0.037 0.058 1.38 0.000 0.020 0.029 0.033 0.054 1.39 0.000 0.017 0.026 0.029 0.051 1.41 0.000 0.015 0.024 0.025 0.047 1.42 0.000 0.013 0.022 0.022 0.044 1.44 0.000 0.010 0.019 0.018 0.040 1.45 0.000 0.008 0.017 0.014 0.037 1.47 0.000 0.006 0.015 0.011 0.033 1.48 0.000 0.003 0.013 0.007 0.030 1.50 0.000 0.001 0.011 0.003 0.027 1.52 0.000 -0.001 0.008 -0.000 0.023 1.53 0.000 -0.003 0.006 -0.004 0.020 1.55 0.000 -0.006 0.004 -0.007 0.017 1.56 0.000 -0.008 0.002 -0.011 0.013 1.58 0.000 -0.010 -0.000 -0.014 0.010 1.59 0.000 -0.012 -0.002 -0.017 0.007 1.61 0.000 -0.014 -0.004 -0.021 0.004 1.63 0.000 -0.016 -0.006 -0.024 0.001 1.64 0.000 -0.018 -0.008 -0.027 -0.002 1.66 0.000 -0.020 -0.010 -0.030 -0.006 1.67 0.000 -0.022 -0.012 -0.034 -0.009 1.69 0.000 -0.024 -0.014 -0.037 -0.012 1.70 0.000 -0.026 -0.016 -0.040 -0.015 1.72 0.000 -0.028 -0.018 -0.043 -0.018 1.73 0.000 -0.030 -0.020 -0.046 -0.021 1.75 0.000 -0.032 -0.022 -0.049 -0.023 1.77 0.000 -0.034 -0.024 -0.052 -0.026 1.78 0.000 -0.036 -0.026 -0.055 -0.029 1.80 0.000 -0.038 -0.028 -0.058 -0.032 1.81 0.000 -0.040 -0.029 -0.061 -0.035 1.83 0.000 -0.042 -0.031 -0.064 -0.038 1.84 0.000 -0.043 -0.033 -0.067 -0.040 1.86 0.000 -0.045 -0.035 -0.070 -0.043 1.88 0.000 -0.047 -0.036 -0.072 -0.046 1.89 0.000 -0.049 -0.038 -0.075 -0.048 1.91 0.000 -0.050 -0.040 -0.078 -0.051 1.92 0.000 -0.052 -0.041 -0.080 -0.054 1.94 0.000 -0.054 -0.043 -0.083 -0.056 1.95 0.000 -0.055 -0.045 -0.086 -0.059 1.97 0.000 -0.057 -0.046 -0.088 -0.061 1.98 0.000 -0.059 -0.048 -0.091 -0.064 2.00 0.000 -0.060 -0.050 -0.093 -0.066 2.02 0.000 -0.062 -0.051 -0.096 -0.069 2.03 0.000 -0.063 -0.053 -0.098 -0.071 2.05 0.000 -0.065 -0.054 -0.101 -0.073 2.06 0.000 -0.066 -0.056 -0.103 -0.076 2.08 0.000 -0.068 -0.057 -0.105 -0.078 2.09 0.000 -0.069 -0.059 -0.108 -0.080 2.11 0.000 -0.071 -0.060 -0.110 -0.083 2.13 0.000 -0.072 -0.062 -0.112 -0.085 2.14 0.000 -0.074 -0.063 -0.114 -0.087 2.16 0.000 -0.075 -0.064 -0.117 -0.089 2.17 0.000 -0.076 -0.066 -0.119 -0.091 2.19 0.000 -0.078 -0.067 -0.121 -0.093 2.20 0.000 -0.079 -0.069 -0.123 -0.096 2.22 0.000 -0.080 -0.070 -0.125 -0.098 2.23 0.000 -0.082 -0.071 -0.127 -0.100 2.25 0.000 -0.083 -0.072 -0.129 -0.102 2.27 0.000 -0.084 -0.074 -0.131 -0.104 2.28 0.000 -0.085 -0.075 -0.133 -0.106 2.30 0.000 -0.087 -0.076 -0.135 -0.108 2.31 0.000 -0.088 -0.078 -0.137 -0.110 2.33 0.000 -0.089 -0.079 -0.139 -0.112 2.34 0.000 -0.090 -0.080 -0.141 -0.113 2.36 0.000 -0.091 -0.081 -0.143 -0.115 2.38 0.000 -0.093 -0.082 -0.144 -0.117 2.39 0.000 -0.094 -0.083 -0.146 -0.119 2.41 0.000 -0.095 -0.085 -0.148 -0.121 2.42 0.000 -0.096 -0.086 -0.150 -0.122 2.44 0.000 -0.097 -0.087 -0.151 -0.124 2.45 0.000 -0.098 -0.088 -0.153 -0.126 2.47 0.000 -0.099 -0.089 -0.155 -0.128 2.48 0.000 -0.100 -0.090 -0.156 -0.129 2.50 0.000 -0.101 -0.091 -0.158 -0.131 2.52 0.000 -0.102 -0.092 -0.160 -0.133 2.53 0.000 -0.103 -0.093 -0.161 -0.134 2.55 0.000 -0.104 -0.094 -0.163 -0.136 2.56 0.000 -0.105 -0.095 -0.164 -0.137 2.58 0.000 -0.106 -0.096 -0.166 -0.139 2.59 0.000 -0.107 -0.097 -0.167 -0.140 2.61 0.000 -0.108 -0.098 -0.169 -0.142 2.63 0.000 -0.109 -0.099 -0.170 -0.143 2.64 0.000 -0.110 -0.100 -0.171 -0.145 2.66 0.000 -0.110 -0.101 -0.173 -0.146 2.67 0.000 -0.111 -0.102 -0.174 -0.148 2.69 0.000 -0.112 -0.103 -0.175 -0.149 2.70 0.000 -0.113 -0.104 -0.177 -0.150 2.72 0.000 -0.114 -0.104 -0.178 -0.152 2.73 0.000 -0.115 -0.105 -0.179 -0.153 2.75 0.000 -0.115 -0.106 -0.180 -0.154 2.77 0.000 -0.116 -0.107 -0.182 -0.156 2.78 0.000 -0.117 -0.108 -0.183 -0.157 2.80 0.000 -0.118 -0.109 -0.184 -0.158 2.81 0.000 -0.118 -0.109 -0.185 -0.160 2.83 0.000 -0.119 -0.110 -0.186 -0.161 2.84 0.000 -0.120 -0.111 -0.187 -0.162 2.86 0.000 -0.121 -0.112 -0.188 -0.163 2.88 0.000 -0.121 -0.112 -0.190 -0.164 2.89 0.000 -0.122 -0.113 -0.191 -0.165 2.91 0.000 -0.123 -0.114 -0.192 -0.167 2.92 0.000 -0.123 -0.114 -0.193 -0.168 2.94 0.000 -0.124 -0.115 -0.194 -0.169 2.95 0.000 -0.124 -0.116 -0.195 -0.170 2.97 0.000 -0.125 -0.117 -0.196 -0.171 2.98 0.000 -0.126 -0.117 -0.197 -0.172 3.00 0.000 -0.126 -0.118 -0.197 -0.173
Employment shortfall versus the paired baseline percentage points; positive = below baseline · conditional path
Assumed stress begins -0.208 -0.114 -0.02 0.074 0.168 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Shaded: Assumed real-rate increase during model years 0–1. Horizontal axis: elapsed model years, not calendar dates..
Read values as a table Scenario period No-shock difference = 0 (percentage points; positive = below baseline) D_A/R_LOW shock effect (percentage points; positive = below baseline) D_A/R_HIGH shock effect (percentage points; positive = below baseline) D_B/R_LOW shock effect (percentage points; positive = below baseline) D_B/R_HIGH shock effect (percentage points; positive = below baseline) 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.02 0.000 0.004 0.003 0.006 0.005 0.03 0.000 0.007 0.007 0.011 0.011 0.05 0.000 0.011 0.010 0.017 0.016 0.06 0.000 0.014 0.014 0.022 0.021 0.08 0.000 0.018 0.017 0.028 0.027 0.09 0.000 0.021 0.020 0.033 0.032 0.11 0.000 0.024 0.024 0.038 0.037 0.13 0.000 0.027 0.027 0.043 0.042 0.14 0.000 0.030 0.030 0.048 0.046 0.16 0.000 0.033 0.033 0.053 0.051 0.17 0.000 0.036 0.036 0.058 0.056 0.19 0.000 0.039 0.038 0.063 0.060 0.20 0.000 0.042 0.041 0.067 0.065 0.22 0.000 0.045 0.044 0.071 0.069 0.23 0.000 0.047 0.046 0.075 0.073 0.25 0.000 0.050 0.049 0.079 0.077 0.27 0.000 0.052 0.051 0.083 0.081 0.28 0.000 0.055 0.054 0.087 0.084 0.30 0.000 0.057 0.056 0.091 0.088 0.31 0.000 0.059 0.058 0.094 0.091 0.33 0.000 0.061 0.060 0.097 0.094 0.34 0.000 0.063 0.062 0.100 0.097 0.36 0.000 0.065 0.064 0.103 0.100 0.38 0.000 0.066 0.066 0.106 0.103 0.39 0.000 0.068 0.067 0.108 0.106 0.41 0.000 0.070 0.069 0.111 0.109 0.42 0.000 0.071 0.070 0.113 0.111 0.44 0.000 0.072 0.072 0.115 0.113 0.45 0.000 0.074 0.073 0.117 0.115 0.47 0.000 0.075 0.074 0.119 0.117 0.48 0.000 0.076 0.075 0.121 0.119 0.50 0.000 0.077 0.076 0.122 0.121 0.52 0.000 0.078 0.077 0.124 0.123 0.53 0.000 0.078 0.078 0.125 0.124 0.55 0.000 0.079 0.079 0.126 0.126 0.56 0.000 0.080 0.080 0.127 0.127 0.58 0.000 0.080 0.081 0.128 0.128 0.59 0.000 0.081 0.081 0.129 0.129 0.61 0.000 0.081 0.082 0.129 0.131 0.63 0.000 0.081 0.082 0.130 0.131 0.64 0.000 0.082 0.083 0.130 0.132 0.66 0.000 0.082 0.083 0.131 0.133 0.67 0.000 0.082 0.083 0.131 0.134 0.69 0.000 0.082 0.084 0.131 0.134 0.70 0.000 0.082 0.084 0.131 0.135 0.72 0.000 0.082 0.084 0.131 0.135 0.73 0.000 0.082 0.084 0.131 0.136 0.75 0.000 0.082 0.084 0.131 0.136 0.77 0.000 0.082 0.084 0.131 0.136 0.78 0.000 0.082 0.084 0.131 0.136 0.80 0.000 0.082 0.084 0.130 0.136 0.81 0.000 0.081 0.084 0.130 0.136 0.83 0.000 0.081 0.084 0.129 0.136 0.84 0.000 0.081 0.084 0.129 0.136 0.86 0.000 0.080 0.084 0.128 0.136 0.88 0.000 0.080 0.084 0.128 0.136 0.89 0.000 0.080 0.084 0.127 0.136 0.91 0.000 0.079 0.083 0.127 0.136 0.92 0.000 0.079 0.083 0.126 0.136 0.94 0.000 0.079 0.083 0.125 0.135 0.95 0.000 0.078 0.083 0.124 0.135 0.97 0.000 0.078 0.083 0.124 0.135 0.98 0.000 0.077 0.082 0.123 0.135 1.00 0.000 0.077 0.082 0.122 0.134 1.02 0.000 0.074 0.080 0.118 0.131 1.03 0.000 0.072 0.077 0.114 0.127 1.05 0.000 0.069 0.075 0.110 0.124 1.06 0.000 0.067 0.072 0.106 0.120 1.08 0.000 0.064 0.070 0.102 0.116 1.09 0.000 0.062 0.068 0.098 0.113 1.11 0.000 0.059 0.065 0.095 0.109 1.13 0.000 0.057 0.063 0.091 0.106 1.14 0.000 0.054 0.061 0.087 0.102 1.16 0.000 0.052 0.058 0.083 0.098 1.17 0.000 0.049 0.056 0.079 0.095 1.19 0.000 0.047 0.054 0.075 0.091 1.20 0.000 0.044 0.051 0.071 0.088 1.22 0.000 0.042 0.049 0.067 0.084 1.23 0.000 0.039 0.047 0.064 0.081 1.25 0.000 0.037 0.044 0.060 0.077 1.27 0.000 0.035 0.042 0.056 0.074 1.28 0.000 0.032 0.040 0.052 0.070 1.30 0.000 0.030 0.038 0.049 0.067 1.31 0.000 0.028 0.035 0.045 0.064 1.33 0.000 0.025 0.033 0.041 0.060 1.34 0.000 0.023 0.031 0.038 0.057 1.36 0.000 0.021 0.029 0.034 0.053 1.38 0.000 0.018 0.027 0.031 0.050 1.39 0.000 0.016 0.024 0.027 0.047 1.41 0.000 0.014 0.022 0.023 0.044 1.42 0.000 0.012 0.020 0.020 0.040 1.44 0.000 0.010 0.018 0.017 0.037 1.45 0.000 0.007 0.016 0.013 0.034 1.47 0.000 0.005 0.014 0.010 0.031 1.48 0.000 0.003 0.012 0.006 0.028 1.50 0.000 0.001 0.010 0.003 0.024 1.52 0.000 -0.001 0.008 -0.000 0.021 1.53 0.000 -0.003 0.006 -0.003 0.018 1.55 0.000 -0.005 0.004 -0.007 0.015 1.56 0.000 -0.007 0.002 -0.010 0.012 1.58 0.000 -0.009 -0.000 -0.013 0.009 1.59 0.000 -0.011 -0.002 -0.016 0.006 1.61 0.000 -0.013 -0.004 -0.019 0.003 1.63 0.000 -0.015 -0.006 -0.022 0.001 1.64 0.000 -0.017 -0.008 -0.025 -0.002 1.66 0.000 -0.019 -0.010 -0.028 -0.005 1.67 0.000 -0.021 -0.011 -0.031 -0.008 1.69 0.000 -0.022 -0.013 -0.034 -0.011 1.70 0.000 -0.024 -0.015 -0.037 -0.013 1.72 0.000 -0.026 -0.017 -0.040 -0.016 1.73 0.000 -0.028 -0.018 -0.042 -0.019 1.75 0.000 -0.030 -0.020 -0.045 -0.021 1.77 0.000 -0.031 -0.022 -0.048 -0.024 1.78 0.000 -0.033 -0.024 -0.051 -0.027 1.80 0.000 -0.035 -0.025 -0.053 -0.029 1.81 0.000 -0.036 -0.027 -0.056 -0.032 1.83 0.000 -0.038 -0.028 -0.058 -0.034 1.84 0.000 -0.040 -0.030 -0.061 -0.037 1.86 0.000 -0.041 -0.032 -0.064 -0.039 1.88 0.000 -0.043 -0.033 -0.066 -0.042 1.89 0.000 -0.044 -0.035 -0.069 -0.044 1.91 0.000 -0.046 -0.036 -0.071 -0.046 1.92 0.000 -0.047 -0.038 -0.073 -0.049 1.94 0.000 -0.049 -0.039 -0.076 -0.051 1.95 0.000 -0.050 -0.041 -0.078 -0.053 1.97 0.000 -0.052 -0.042 -0.080 -0.056 1.98 0.000 -0.053 -0.044 -0.083 -0.058 2.00 0.000 -0.055 -0.045 -0.085 -0.060 2.02 0.000 -0.056 -0.047 -0.087 -0.062 2.03 0.000 -0.058 -0.048 -0.089 -0.064 2.05 0.000 -0.059 -0.049 -0.092 -0.067 2.06 0.000 -0.060 -0.051 -0.094 -0.069 2.08 0.000 -0.062 -0.052 -0.096 -0.071 2.09 0.000 -0.063 -0.053 -0.098 -0.073 2.11 0.000 -0.064 -0.055 -0.100 -0.075 2.13 0.000 -0.066 -0.056 -0.102 -0.077 2.14 0.000 -0.067 -0.057 -0.104 -0.079 2.16 0.000 -0.068 -0.058 -0.106 -0.081 2.17 0.000 -0.069 -0.060 -0.108 -0.083 2.19 0.000 -0.070 -0.061 -0.110 -0.085 2.20 0.000 -0.072 -0.062 -0.112 -0.087 2.22 0.000 -0.073 -0.063 -0.113 -0.088 2.23 0.000 -0.074 -0.064 -0.115 -0.090 2.25 0.000 -0.075 -0.066 -0.117 -0.092 2.27 0.000 -0.076 -0.067 -0.119 -0.094 2.28 0.000 -0.077 -0.068 -0.121 -0.096 2.30 0.000 -0.078 -0.069 -0.122 -0.097 2.31 0.000 -0.080 -0.070 -0.124 -0.099 2.33 0.000 -0.081 -0.071 -0.126 -0.101 2.34 0.000 -0.082 -0.072 -0.127 -0.102 2.36 0.000 -0.083 -0.073 -0.129 -0.104 2.38 0.000 -0.084 -0.074 -0.131 -0.106 2.39 0.000 -0.085 -0.075 -0.132 -0.107 2.41 0.000 -0.086 -0.076 -0.134 -0.109 2.42 0.000 -0.087 -0.077 -0.135 -0.110 2.44 0.000 -0.088 -0.078 -0.137 -0.112 2.45 0.000 -0.088 -0.079 -0.138 -0.113 2.47 0.000 -0.089 -0.080 -0.140 -0.115 2.48 0.000 -0.090 -0.081 -0.141 -0.116 2.50 0.000 -0.091 -0.082 -0.142 -0.118 2.52 0.000 -0.092 -0.083 -0.144 -0.119 2.53 0.000 -0.093 -0.084 -0.145 -0.121 2.55 0.000 -0.094 -0.085 -0.147 -0.122 2.56 0.000 -0.095 -0.086 -0.148 -0.123 2.58 0.000 -0.095 -0.087 -0.149 -0.125 2.59 0.000 -0.096 -0.087 -0.150 -0.126 2.61 0.000 -0.097 -0.088 -0.152 -0.127 2.63 0.000 -0.098 -0.089 -0.153 -0.129 2.64 0.000 -0.099 -0.090 -0.154 -0.130 2.66 0.000 -0.099 -0.091 -0.155 -0.131 2.67 0.000 -0.100 -0.091 -0.157 -0.133 2.69 0.000 -0.101 -0.092 -0.158 -0.134 2.70 0.000 -0.102 -0.093 -0.159 -0.135 2.72 0.000 -0.102 -0.094 -0.160 -0.136 2.73 0.000 -0.103 -0.094 -0.161 -0.137 2.75 0.000 -0.104 -0.095 -0.162 -0.138 2.77 0.000 -0.104 -0.096 -0.163 -0.140 2.78 0.000 -0.105 -0.097 -0.164 -0.141 2.80 0.000 -0.106 -0.097 -0.165 -0.142 2.81 0.000 -0.106 -0.098 -0.166 -0.143 2.83 0.000 -0.107 -0.099 -0.167 -0.144 2.84 0.000 -0.108 -0.099 -0.168 -0.145 2.86 0.000 -0.108 -0.100 -0.169 -0.146 2.88 0.000 -0.109 -0.101 -0.170 -0.147 2.89 0.000 -0.109 -0.101 -0.171 -0.148 2.91 0.000 -0.110 -0.102 -0.172 -0.149 2.92 0.000 -0.110 -0.102 -0.173 -0.150 2.94 0.000 -0.111 -0.103 -0.174 -0.151 2.95 0.000 -0.112 -0.104 -0.175 -0.152 2.97 0.000 -0.112 -0.104 -0.175 -0.153 2.98 0.000 -0.113 -0.105 -0.176 -0.154 3.00 0.000 -0.113 -0.105 -0.177 -0.155
Modeled debt / annual nominal output % · conditional path
Assumed stress begins 42.239 50.418 58.598 66.778 74.957 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Shaded: Assumed real-rate increase during model years 0–1. Horizontal axis: elapsed model years, not calendar dates..
Read values as a table Scenario period D_A/R_LOW shocked path (%) D_A/R_HIGH shocked path (%) D_B/R_LOW shocked path (%) D_B/R_HIGH shocked path (%) 0.00 45.004 45.004 72.200 72.200 0.02 45.002 45.008 72.194 72.208 0.03 44.999 45.013 72.186 72.215 0.05 44.995 45.017 72.178 72.220 0.06 44.992 45.021 72.167 72.224 0.08 44.988 45.025 72.156 72.228 0.09 44.985 45.029 72.143 72.230 0.11 44.981 45.033 72.128 72.231 0.13 44.978 45.038 72.113 72.231 0.14 44.975 45.043 72.096 72.230 0.16 44.972 45.048 72.078 72.228 0.17 44.970 45.054 72.060 72.226 0.19 44.968 45.061 72.040 72.223 0.20 44.966 45.068 72.019 72.219 0.22 44.965 45.076 71.998 72.214 0.23 44.965 45.085 71.975 72.209 0.25 44.966 45.094 71.952 72.203 0.27 44.967 45.105 71.929 72.197 0.28 44.970 45.116 71.904 72.190 0.30 44.973 45.128 71.880 72.183 0.31 44.977 45.142 71.854 72.176 0.33 44.983 45.156 71.829 72.168 0.34 44.989 45.172 71.803 72.160 0.36 44.997 45.189 71.776 72.152 0.38 45.006 45.207 71.750 72.144 0.39 45.016 45.227 71.723 72.136 0.41 45.028 45.248 71.696 72.128 0.42 45.041 45.270 71.670 72.119 0.44 45.056 45.293 71.643 72.111 0.45 45.071 45.318 71.616 72.103 0.47 45.089 45.345 71.589 72.095 0.48 45.108 45.372 71.563 72.087 0.50 45.128 45.401 71.537 72.079 0.52 45.150 45.432 71.510 72.072 0.53 45.173 45.463 71.484 72.064 0.55 45.197 45.497 71.459 72.057 0.56 45.223 45.531 71.433 72.050 0.58 45.251 45.567 71.408 72.043 0.59 45.280 45.604 71.383 72.037 0.61 45.310 45.642 71.359 72.031 0.63 45.342 45.682 71.335 72.025 0.64 45.375 45.723 71.311 72.019 0.66 45.409 45.765 71.288 72.014 0.67 45.444 45.808 71.265 72.009 0.69 45.481 45.852 71.242 72.004 0.70 45.519 45.897 71.220 72.000 0.72 45.557 45.943 71.198 71.995 0.73 45.597 45.990 71.176 71.991 0.75 45.638 46.038 71.155 71.988 0.77 45.680 46.087 71.134 71.984 0.78 45.723 46.137 71.114 71.981 0.80 45.766 46.187 71.093 71.978 0.81 45.811 46.238 71.074 71.975 0.83 45.856 46.290 71.054 71.972 0.84 45.902 46.342 71.035 71.970 0.86 45.948 46.395 71.016 71.968 0.88 45.995 46.448 70.997 71.966 0.89 46.042 46.502 70.979 71.964 0.91 46.090 46.556 70.960 71.962 0.92 46.139 46.611 70.942 71.960 0.94 46.187 46.666 70.924 71.959 0.95 46.236 46.721 70.907 71.958 0.97 46.285 46.776 70.889 71.956 0.98 46.335 46.832 70.872 71.955 1.00 46.384 46.887 70.855 71.954 1.02 46.425 46.934 70.823 71.938 1.03 46.466 46.981 70.792 71.923 1.05 46.507 47.027 70.761 71.907 1.06 46.547 47.074 70.730 71.892 1.08 46.588 47.121 70.699 71.876 1.09 46.629 47.167 70.668 71.861 1.11 46.670 47.214 70.637 71.845 1.13 46.710 47.260 70.607 71.830 1.14 46.750 47.306 70.576 71.815 1.16 46.790 47.352 70.546 71.799 1.17 46.830 47.398 70.515 71.784 1.19 46.870 47.443 70.485 71.769 1.20 46.909 47.488 70.454 71.753 1.22 46.948 47.533 70.424 71.738 1.23 46.987 47.578 70.394 71.723 1.25 47.025 47.622 70.363 71.707 1.27 47.063 47.666 70.333 71.692 1.28 47.100 47.710 70.303 71.676 1.30 47.137 47.753 70.272 71.661 1.31 47.174 47.795 70.242 71.645 1.33 47.210 47.838 70.211 71.629 1.34 47.246 47.880 70.181 71.614 1.36 47.281 47.921 70.150 71.598 1.38 47.316 47.962 70.120 71.582 1.39 47.351 48.003 70.089 71.566 1.41 47.384 48.043 70.059 71.550 1.42 47.418 48.082 70.028 71.534 1.44 47.451 48.122 69.997 71.518 1.45 47.483 48.160 69.967 71.502 1.47 47.515 48.198 69.936 71.486 1.48 47.546 48.236 69.905 71.470 1.50 47.576 48.273 69.874 71.453 1.52 47.606 48.310 69.843 71.437 1.53 47.636 48.346 69.812 71.420 1.55 47.665 48.381 69.780 71.403 1.56 47.693 48.416 69.749 71.387 1.58 47.721 48.451 69.718 71.370 1.59 47.748 48.485 69.686 71.353 1.61 47.775 48.519 69.655 71.336 1.63 47.801 48.552 69.623 71.319 1.64 47.827 48.584 69.592 71.302 1.66 47.852 48.616 69.560 71.285 1.67 47.876 48.647 69.528 71.268 1.69 47.900 48.678 69.497 71.250 1.70 47.924 48.709 69.465 71.233 1.72 47.946 48.738 69.433 71.215 1.73 47.969 48.768 69.401 71.198 1.75 47.990 48.797 69.369 71.180 1.77 48.012 48.825 69.337 71.162 1.78 48.032 48.853 69.304 71.145 1.80 48.052 48.880 69.272 71.127 1.81 48.072 48.907 69.240 71.109 1.83 48.091 48.933 69.208 71.091 1.84 48.109 48.959 69.175 71.073 1.86 48.127 48.984 69.143 71.055 1.88 48.145 49.009 69.110 71.036 1.89 48.162 49.033 69.078 71.018 1.91 48.178 49.057 69.045 71.000 1.92 48.194 49.081 69.012 70.982 1.94 48.210 49.104 68.980 70.963 1.95 48.225 49.126 68.947 70.945 1.97 48.239 49.148 68.914 70.926 1.98 48.253 49.170 68.881 70.908 2.00 48.267 49.191 68.848 70.889 2.02 48.280 49.212 68.815 70.871 2.03 48.292 49.232 68.783 70.852 2.05 48.305 49.252 68.750 70.833 2.06 48.316 49.271 68.717 70.815 2.08 48.328 49.290 68.684 70.796 2.09 48.339 49.309 68.651 70.777 2.11 48.349 49.327 68.618 70.758 2.13 48.359 49.345 68.585 70.740 2.14 48.369 49.362 68.551 70.721 2.16 48.378 49.380 68.518 70.702 2.17 48.387 49.396 68.485 70.683 2.19 48.395 49.412 68.452 70.664 2.20 48.403 49.428 68.419 70.645 2.22 48.411 49.444 68.386 70.626 2.23 48.418 49.459 68.353 70.607 2.25 48.425 49.474 68.320 70.588 2.27 48.431 49.488 68.287 70.569 2.28 48.438 49.502 68.254 70.551 2.30 48.443 49.516 68.221 70.532 2.31 48.449 49.530 68.188 70.513 2.33 48.454 49.543 68.155 70.494 2.34 48.459 49.556 68.122 70.475 2.36 48.463 49.568 68.089 70.456 2.38 48.467 49.580 68.056 70.437 2.39 48.471 49.592 68.023 70.418 2.41 48.475 49.604 67.990 70.399 2.42 48.478 49.615 67.957 70.380 2.44 48.481 49.626 67.924 70.361 2.45 48.483 49.636 67.891 70.342 2.47 48.486 49.647 67.858 70.323 2.48 48.488 49.657 67.825 70.304 2.50 48.490 49.667 67.792 70.286 2.52 48.491 49.676 67.760 70.267 2.53 48.492 49.686 67.727 70.248 2.55 48.493 49.695 67.694 70.229 2.56 48.494 49.703 67.662 70.211 2.58 48.494 49.712 67.629 70.192 2.59 48.494 49.720 67.597 70.173 2.61 48.494 49.728 67.564 70.154 2.63 48.494 49.736 67.532 70.136 2.64 48.493 49.744 67.499 70.117 2.66 48.493 49.751 67.467 70.099 2.67 48.492 49.758 67.435 70.080 2.69 48.490 49.765 67.402 70.062 2.70 48.489 49.772 67.370 70.043 2.72 48.487 49.778 67.338 70.025 2.73 48.485 49.784 67.306 70.006 2.75 48.483 49.790 67.274 69.988 2.77 48.481 49.796 67.242 69.970 2.78 48.478 49.802 67.210 69.952 2.80 48.476 49.807 67.178 69.933 2.81 48.473 49.813 67.146 69.915 2.83 48.470 49.818 67.115 69.897 2.84 48.467 49.823 67.083 69.879 2.86 48.463 49.827 67.051 69.861 2.88 48.460 49.832 67.020 69.843 2.89 48.456 49.836 66.988 69.825 2.91 48.452 49.841 66.957 69.807 2.92 48.448 49.845 66.926 69.790 2.94 48.444 49.848 66.894 69.772 2.95 48.439 49.852 66.863 69.754 2.97 48.435 49.856 66.832 69.737 2.98 48.430 49.859 66.801 69.719 3.00 48.425 49.862 66.770 69.701
Wages / nominal output % · conditional path
Assumed stress begins 53.935 62.62 71.304 79.989 88.673 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Shaded: Assumed real-rate increase during model years 0–1. Horizontal axis: elapsed model years, not calendar dates..
Read values as a table Scenario period D_A/R_LOW shocked path (%) D_A/R_HIGH shocked path (%) D_B/R_LOW shocked path (%) D_B/R_HIGH shocked path (%) 0.00 56.830 56.830 56.830 56.830 0.02 57.383 57.383 57.383 57.382 0.03 57.947 57.944 57.945 57.940 0.05 58.520 58.513 58.517 58.506 0.06 59.103 59.091 59.096 59.077 0.08 59.695 59.675 59.685 59.654 0.09 60.295 60.267 60.280 60.235 0.11 60.904 60.864 60.883 60.821 0.13 61.519 61.467 61.491 61.411 0.14 62.141 62.075 62.106 62.003 0.16 62.769 62.686 62.725 62.597 0.17 63.402 63.301 63.348 63.193 0.19 64.039 63.919 63.975 63.790 0.20 64.680 64.538 64.604 64.386 0.22 65.323 65.158 65.235 64.982 0.23 65.968 65.779 65.867 65.576 0.25 66.614 66.398 66.498 66.168 0.27 67.259 67.016 67.129 66.756 0.28 67.904 67.631 67.758 67.341 0.30 68.547 68.243 68.384 67.920 0.31 69.186 68.851 69.007 68.495 0.33 69.823 69.454 69.625 69.063 0.34 70.454 70.051 70.238 69.625 0.36 71.080 70.642 70.845 70.178 0.38 71.699 71.225 71.445 70.724 0.39 72.311 71.800 72.037 71.261 0.41 72.914 72.366 72.621 71.788 0.42 73.509 72.922 73.195 72.306 0.44 74.094 73.469 73.760 72.812 0.45 74.668 74.004 74.314 73.308 0.47 75.231 74.529 74.856 73.792 0.48 75.783 75.041 75.386 74.264 0.50 76.321 75.541 75.904 74.724 0.52 76.847 76.027 76.409 75.171 0.53 77.359 76.501 76.901 75.606 0.55 77.857 76.961 77.379 76.026 0.56 78.340 77.407 77.842 76.434 0.58 78.809 77.838 78.291 76.827 0.59 79.262 78.255 78.725 77.207 0.61 79.700 78.657 79.144 77.573 0.63 80.122 79.044 79.548 77.924 0.64 80.528 79.416 79.936 78.262 0.66 80.918 79.773 80.309 78.585 0.67 81.292 80.115 80.666 78.894 0.69 81.649 80.442 81.008 79.189 0.70 81.991 80.753 81.334 79.470 0.72 82.316 81.050 81.644 79.737 0.73 82.625 81.331 81.939 79.990 0.75 82.918 81.597 82.218 80.230 0.77 83.195 81.849 82.482 80.456 0.78 83.456 82.086 82.731 80.668 0.80 83.702 82.309 82.965 80.867 0.81 83.932 82.517 83.184 81.054 0.83 84.147 82.712 83.389 81.227 0.84 84.347 82.892 83.579 81.388 0.86 84.532 83.060 83.756 81.537 0.88 84.703 83.214 83.918 81.674 0.89 84.860 83.355 84.067 81.799 0.91 85.003 83.484 84.204 81.913 0.92 85.133 83.600 84.327 82.015 0.94 85.249 83.704 84.438 82.107 0.95 85.353 83.797 84.536 82.188 0.97 85.445 83.878 84.623 82.259 0.98 85.524 83.948 84.698 82.320 1.00 85.592 84.008 84.763 82.371 1.02 85.648 84.057 84.816 82.413 1.03 85.694 84.097 84.860 82.447 1.05 85.730 84.127 84.894 82.472 1.06 85.755 84.149 84.919 82.489 1.08 85.771 84.161 84.935 82.499 1.09 85.778 84.165 84.942 82.501 1.11 85.776 84.161 84.941 82.496 1.13 85.766 84.150 84.932 82.484 1.14 85.747 84.130 84.915 82.465 1.16 85.720 84.103 84.890 82.440 1.17 85.685 84.070 84.859 82.408 1.19 85.643 84.029 84.820 82.371 1.20 85.595 83.982 84.775 82.327 1.22 85.539 83.929 84.723 82.279 1.23 85.477 83.870 84.666 82.225 1.25 85.409 83.806 84.602 82.165 1.27 85.334 83.736 84.533 82.101 1.28 85.255 83.660 84.458 82.033 1.30 85.169 83.580 84.379 81.960 1.31 85.079 83.495 84.294 81.882 1.33 84.984 83.406 84.205 81.801 1.34 84.884 83.312 84.112 81.716 1.36 84.780 83.215 84.014 81.627 1.38 84.672 83.113 83.912 81.534 1.39 84.559 83.008 83.806 81.439 1.41 84.443 82.899 83.697 81.340 1.42 84.324 82.787 83.585 81.238 1.44 84.201 82.672 83.469 81.133 1.45 84.075 82.554 83.350 81.026 1.47 83.946 82.434 83.228 80.916 1.48 83.814 82.310 83.104 80.803 1.50 83.679 82.185 82.977 80.689 1.52 83.542 82.056 82.848 80.572 1.53 83.403 81.926 82.716 80.453 1.55 83.262 81.794 82.582 80.333 1.56 83.119 81.660 82.447 80.210 1.58 82.973 81.524 82.309 80.086 1.59 82.827 81.387 82.170 79.961 1.61 82.678 81.248 82.029 79.834 1.63 82.528 81.107 81.887 79.706 1.64 82.377 80.966 81.744 79.576 1.66 82.225 80.823 81.599 79.445 1.67 82.071 80.679 81.453 79.314 1.69 81.916 80.534 81.306 79.181 1.70 81.761 80.389 81.158 79.048 1.72 81.605 80.242 81.009 78.913 1.73 81.448 80.095 80.860 78.778 1.75 81.290 79.947 80.710 78.643 1.77 81.132 79.799 80.559 78.507 1.78 80.973 79.650 80.408 78.370 1.80 80.814 79.501 80.256 78.233 1.81 80.655 79.351 80.104 78.095 1.83 80.495 79.201 79.952 77.958 1.84 80.335 79.051 79.800 77.820 1.86 80.176 78.901 79.647 77.682 1.88 80.016 78.751 79.494 77.543 1.89 79.856 78.601 79.341 77.405 1.91 79.696 78.450 79.189 77.266 1.92 79.536 78.300 79.036 77.128 1.94 79.377 78.150 78.883 76.989 1.95 79.218 78.000 78.731 76.851 1.97 79.059 77.850 78.578 76.713 1.98 78.900 77.701 78.426 76.575 2.00 78.742 77.552 78.275 76.437 2.02 78.584 77.403 78.123 76.299 2.03 78.426 77.255 77.972 76.162 2.05 78.269 77.106 77.821 76.025 2.06 78.112 76.959 77.671 75.888 2.08 77.956 76.812 77.521 75.752 2.09 77.801 76.665 77.372 75.616 2.11 77.646 76.519 77.223 75.480 2.13 77.492 76.373 77.075 75.345 2.14 77.338 76.228 76.927 75.211 2.16 77.185 76.083 76.780 75.076 2.17 77.033 75.939 76.634 74.943 2.19 76.881 75.796 76.488 74.810 2.20 76.730 75.653 76.343 74.677 2.22 76.580 75.511 76.198 74.545 2.23 76.431 75.370 76.054 74.413 2.25 76.282 75.229 75.911 74.283 2.27 76.134 75.089 75.769 74.152 2.28 75.987 74.950 75.627 74.023 2.30 75.841 74.811 75.486 73.894 2.31 75.695 74.674 75.346 73.765 2.33 75.551 74.537 75.206 73.637 2.34 75.407 74.400 75.068 73.510 2.36 75.264 74.265 74.930 73.384 2.38 75.122 74.130 74.793 73.258 2.39 74.981 73.996 74.657 73.133 2.41 74.841 73.863 74.521 73.009 2.42 74.702 73.731 74.387 72.885 2.44 74.563 73.599 74.253 72.762 2.45 74.426 73.469 74.120 72.640 2.47 74.289 73.339 73.988 72.519 2.48 74.153 73.210 73.857 72.398 2.50 74.019 73.082 73.726 72.278 2.52 73.885 72.954 73.597 72.159 2.53 73.752 72.828 73.468 72.040 2.55 73.620 72.702 73.341 71.922 2.56 73.489 72.577 73.214 71.805 2.58 73.359 72.453 73.088 71.689 2.59 73.229 72.330 72.963 71.574 2.61 73.101 72.208 72.838 71.459 2.63 72.974 72.087 72.715 71.345 2.64 72.847 71.966 72.593 71.232 2.66 72.722 71.846 72.471 71.119 2.67 72.597 71.727 72.350 71.008 2.69 72.474 71.609 72.231 70.897 2.70 72.351 71.492 72.112 70.786 2.72 72.229 71.376 71.993 70.677 2.73 72.108 71.260 71.876 70.568 2.75 71.988 71.146 71.760 70.461 2.77 71.869 71.032 71.645 70.353 2.78 71.751 70.919 71.530 70.247 2.80 71.634 70.807 71.416 70.142 2.81 71.518 70.696 71.303 70.037 2.83 71.403 70.585 71.191 69.933 2.84 71.288 70.476 71.080 69.829 2.86 71.175 70.367 70.970 69.727 2.88 71.062 70.259 70.861 69.625 2.89 70.950 70.152 70.752 69.524 2.91 70.840 70.046 70.645 69.424 2.92 70.730 69.940 70.538 69.324 2.94 70.621 69.836 70.432 69.225 2.95 70.512 69.732 70.327 69.127 2.97 70.405 69.629 70.223 69.030 2.98 70.299 69.527 70.119 68.933 3.00 70.193 69.425 70.017 68.838
Showing all four starting assumptions; 2-percentage-point temporary rate increase. Precomputed model estimate; not a current US reading.
Peak output shortfall 0.087 to 0.144 % below paired baseline
Conditional estimate · range across four assumptions, not a confidence interval Peak employment shortfall 0.082 to 0.136 percentage points of labor-force employment rate
Conditional estimate · range across four assumptions, not a confidence interval Accumulated output shortfall 0.029 to 0.050 % of 3-year baseline output
Conditional estimate · range across four assumptions, not a confidence interval Output difference at year 3 0.118 to 0.197 % versus paired baseline; + means above
Conditional estimate · range across four assumptions, not a confidence interval Peak shortfall measures the deepest point below the paired baseline. Accumulated shortfall counts only lost output; a later rebound does not cancel it. The signed year-3 difference makes that rebound visible. A small response here says how this model behaves under this shock; it does not establish that the actual economy is safe.
Compare every assumption and its estimate All four starting assumptions have equal status · +2 percentage-point rate pulse Assumed state Peak output shortfall (% below paired baseline) Peak employment shortfall (percentage points of labor-force employment rate) Accumulated output shortfall (% of 3-year baseline output) Output difference at year 3 (% versus paired baseline; + means above) D_A/R_LOW 0.087 0.082 0.029 0.126 D_A/R_HIGH 0.089 0.084 0.030 0.118 D_B/R_LOW 0.138 0.131 0.046 0.197 D_B/R_HIGH 0.144 0.136 0.050 0.173
Charts, estimates and tables show the +2-percentage-point scenario for all four assumptions. JavaScript enables controls and chart selection.
What is being estimated? Borrowing costs rise. A declared rate pulse increases the modeled interest burden at the same debt stock.Profits and investment respond. Investment, output, wages, employment and net credit flow interact in the model’s equations, a Keen–Minsky-type system.Compare with the same economy without the pulse. Report the output and employment difference, then inspect whether it persists or reverses.A fragility estimate with a named shock and outcome Here, fragility means sensitivity of modeled economic activity to the specified borrowing-cost shock. It is not a universal 0–1 score. The useful question is: does the same shock cause more damage under a different debt or rate assumption? Compare effects within each state against its own baseline before comparing states.
Estimates use every native 1/64-year step and the genuine year-3 final state: 193 points. Cumulative shortfall is numerically integrated with explicit treatment of crossings. The chart grid uses the same full paths. Zero shock must produce zero differences. No curve is interpolated between shock choices.
How this differs from the daily market index The daily index combines four observed market signals. This page runs a behavioral macro model under assumed conditions. Neither output is a recession probability, and they should not be added. These estimates do not yet include a financial network, realistic refinancing maturities, household income distribution or an active fiscal response. See the macro teaching cases for those separate mechanisms.
Stress tests need a stated purpose, assumptions and limits. See the Basel Committee’s stress-testing principles ; this experimental page makes no claim of regulatory validation.
Dates, definitions and reproducibility Declared starting states; no preferred state State Debt / annual output (%) Assumed annual real rate (%) Employment / labor force (%) Debt construction D_A/R_LOW 45.004 0.596 95.550 Fed corporate debt / quarterly-SAAR economy-wide GDP D_A/R_HIGH 45.004 3.559 95.550 Fed corporate debt / quarterly-SAAR economy-wide GDP D_B/R_LOW 72.200 0.596 95.550 BIS sector-N credit / BIS trailing-year economy-wide GDP D_B/R_HIGH 72.200 3.559 95.550 BIS sector-N credit / BIS trailing-year economy-wide GDP
Study reference: retained BRACKET-1 assumptions, not a rolling current-data estimate. The corporate-debt numerator was subsequently revised; substituting it alone would mix vintages with the original output denominator. This page preserves the experiment and exposes its limitations instead.
This is a dated reference experiment using2025Q4 constructed inputs and an annual2023 wage-share mapping; it is not today's US fragility reading. The original2025Q4 Fed corporate debt figure was later revised by7.2686%; its paired GDP vintage was not jointly refreshed. This export preserves the original assumptions and discloses the revision. Debt populations, instruments and valuation bases are not fully reconciled. Later same-release Fed derivations do not resolve the BIS gap or authorize splicing newer values into this state. The old debt manifests' NSA description disagrees with publisher labels; the seasonal-treatment comparison remains unestablished. Stocks are never multiplied by four. Economy-wide GDP is not corporate-sector income. The model state is a declared mapping, not a measured internally matched corporate balance sheet. No state is preferred. Across-state ranges are ranges of assumptions, not confidence bands, probabilities or an average fragility score. Effects are relative to each state's own baseline; absolute baseline endpoints are retained. A rebound may make the signed cumulative or horizon difference favorable despite an earlier shortfall. The model changes the real rate on all modeled debt immediately. It has no loan-maturity ladder, household distribution, bank-run mechanism or explicit interbank exposure network. Government and added financial-credit channels are disabled here; taxes, transfers and policy responses are not represented in these paths. Production/income and firm balance-sheet identities pass native checks; these checks do not establish full portfolio closure, empirical calibration or predictive skill. Peaks and returns are grid-based. A return sustained through the remaining sampled window may reverse after the three-year horizon. Failure to observe a return is right-censored, not infinite recovery time. The native solver has state and exponential guards; this export checks endpoint/node admissibility but does not perform a new solver-convergence or historical-validation study. Model credit is an ODE-defined flow. Changes in observed debt stocks also include revaluation and other volume changes and are not automatically comparable credit flows. No raw source-series rows are redistributed. Source-license fields are unverified metadata, with the ICE conflict identified explicitly; reproduction of source data may require separate permission. Download the estimate, full paths, scenario parameters, dates and source hashes (JSON)
Machine-readable status is conditional_assumed_state. Probability and confidence are unavailable. A scheduled site refresh does not refresh these input assumptions or create an observed daily structural level.
A current service needs reconciled household/business/instrument definitions, compatible source vintages, explicit maturity and policy channels, and evaluation against held-out outcomes. The existing paths already rebound above their own baseline; that behavior must remain visible when judging the model.
